Publish Date: 29OCT2023
Security & Geopolitical Analyst: MF
Contributing Authors: CT, MSO, ML, VV
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Summary
Over the past 7 days, a series of significant events have taken place that are directly or indirectly linked to the ongoing Ukrainian conflict. These developments have captured the attention of both regional and global audiences:
There have been allegations that Russia is considering a potential large-scale strike on Ukraine, which may involve the use of a space rocket, possibly targeting Kiev
The Kremlin has disclosed its ability to deliver a massive retaliatory nuclear strike via land, sea, and air
The Ukrainian border guards and the National Police detained a person who was illegally transporting individuals to Romania
An anti-drone system has been installed at the Danube Delta
Authorities in Moldova have blocked 22 Russian media sites
The EU is falling behind schedule in providing Ukraine with shells
Kyiv has announced the mandatory evacuation of children from multiple settlements
Britain is teaching Ukrainian engineers how to protect their energy system from potential threats from Russia.
Ukraine is set to increase its domestic ammunition production
Ukrainian military enlistment officials are suspected of illegally acquiring $7 million
Spanish law enforcement officers have confiscated ancient gold jewelry worth €60 million, which was stolen in Ukraine
Zelensky's popularity in Ukraine is on the decline
The Prime Minister of Slovakia announced that his country will no longer be sending arms to Ukraine
Ukraine has received the ninth tranche of macro-financial assistance from the European Union, amounting to €1. 5 billion
The representatives of the European Union's Ministry of Foreign Affairs were unable to reach an agreement on the allocation of a 500 million EUR tranche for military aid to Ukraine
The US has announced an aid package of $150 million for Ukraine
Viktor Orban stated that the Ukrainians will not succeed on the front
On October 28, talks on Ukraine's peace plan commenced in Malta with the participation of officials from 65 countries
Moscow claims that a Ukrainian drone struck a Russian nuclear waste facility, posing a risk of a potential disaster
Threat Mapping Updates
Mapping Analysis
Over the past week, the delivery of US long-range ATACMS weapons and the incursion across the Dnipro River have injected much-needed energy into Ukraine's counter-offensive, which appeared to be stalled. With a range of 160 km, these missiles are expected to disrupt Russian positioning. Many analysts predict that Moscow will be compelled to station air assets further away, thereby limiting their operational capacity. However, according to some analysts, the supply of ATACMS to Ukraine by the U. S. is already considered a "failure" as it falls short of meeting the tactical needs of the Ukrainian armed forces, especially as they head into the challenging winter months. U. S. historian Phillips P. O'Brien also suggests that Russia was given ample time to react. Meanwhile, fierce fighting is taking place in and around Avdiivka, located in the Donetsk region. Russia is persistently encircling the city, while Ukraine claims to have dealt significant blows to Russian military personnel and equipment. According to the Ukrainian military, on October 26 alone, they destroyed more Russian positions and tanks in a single day than any other day since the beginning of the war. The White House has also confirmed that Russia has suffered significant losses near Avdiivka, which has resulted in low morale among their forces. There is even information suggesting that the Russian military has been executing soldiers who refuse to follow orders, with Russian commanders threatening to execute entire units if they attempt to retreat from Ukrainian artillery fire.
Nevertheless, despite the loss of over 2, 000 soldiers during several weeks of assault, Russia persists in its offensive. The objective is to encircle the city and capture a strategically advantageous area near the industrial facility. According to recent reports, Russian troops have successfully reached the railway line in the northern part of the city and have also approached the village of Severnye in the south. The development has led to the narrowing of the corridor through which Ukrainian troops receive supplies in Avdiivka, enabling the Russians to exert significant influence in the area. Currently, there is only one access point remaining to the territories controlled by Ukraine. All indications suggest that the Russians are firmly determined to capture the city and push the battle line further west.
In this regard, it should be mentioned that Russia currently has over 400, 000 soldiers deployed in Ukrainian territory. Moreover, as stated by Andrii Yusov, spokesperson for Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR), there is not only a significant presence of Russian military personnel but also the deployment and delivery of new weapons to the front lines. Specifically, the Russians have a significant number of vehicles, particularly armored ones. This has also been confirmed by certain analysts who claim that the occupiers have stored over 8, 900 vehicles of various types, including 3, 677 infantry fighting vehicles. Additionally, reports suggest that the Kremlin is actively mobilizing new forces, with over 20, 000 individuals being recruited every month for the war against Ukraine. Taking all of this into consideration, the Official Kyiv believes that the enemy will continue to conduct individual offensive operations and launch attacks on multiple sectors of the eastern front. There will be a particular focus on areas near Avdiivka, Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, and Marinka.
Priority Updates
The Ukrainian border guards and the National Police detained a person who was illegally transporting individuals to Romania
The Ukrainian border guards and the National Police have successfully detained an individual who was involved in the illegal transportation of individuals to Romania. The person apprehended was not only the driver of the minibus but also a deputy of a district council. This scheme aimed to transport men across the state border to Romania in exchange for a sum of 5. 3 thousand euros. The main organizer of this illegal operation has also been apprehended. Both individuals are now facing a potential prison sentence ranging from 5 to 9 years.
An anti-drone system has been installed at the Danube Delta
Today, Romanian President Klaus Iohannis announced that an anti-drone system has been installed near the Romanian-Ukrainian border in the Danube Delta. It has been reported that the radars used by Romania can now detect targets at significantly lower altitudes than before.
Moscow claims that a Ukrainian drone struck a Russian nuclear waste facility, posing a risk of a potential disaster
On Thursday, October 26, a Ukrainian drone allegedly crashed into a nuclear waste storage facility at the Kursk power plant in western Russia, causing damage to the facility's walls. This incident has raised concerns, prompting Russia's foreign ministry to call on other governments to condemn what they perceive as an "act of nuclear terrorism." According to a statement from the ministry, Ukraine must have been aware that its actions could potentially lead to a catastrophic nuclear event with far-reaching consequences for multiple countries. Both Russia and Ukraine, as operators of nuclear power plants, have frequently accused each other of engaging in reckless attacks that pose a significant risk to nuclear safety. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has been closely monitoring the situation in Ukraine due to these concerns.
Authorities in Moldova have blocked 22 Russian media sites
According to reports, authorities in Moldova have blocked access to 22 Russian media sites, citing their involvement in an "information war" against the country. This action follows the previous ban on the rebroadcast of Russian television news in June 2022, as well as the suspension of licenses for several Russian-language stations operating in Moldova. These stations were accused of spreading misinformation about the war in Ukraine.
The EU is falling behind schedule in providing Ukraine with shells
According to reports, the EU is facing challenges in meeting its commitment to supply Ukraine with 1 million artillery shells by March 2024. As of 25 October, it has only delivered approximately 30% of the target, based on the contracts signed so far. This indicates a risk of the bloc missing its goal within the 12-month timeframe.
Kyiv has announced the mandatory evacuation of children from multiple settlements
A mandatory evacuation will be conducted in the Kherson region, specifically from 23 settlements, to ensure the safety of families with children. A total of 802 children will be transported to safe regions, including Khmelnytskyi, Mykolaiv, Odesa, and Lviv. These evacuation events will be provided free of charge, utilizing both rail and bus transport. Approximately 100 children are also planned to be accommodated in one of the sanatoriums located in the Ivano-Frankivsk region. Additionally, Ukrainian authorities have ordered a mandatory evacuation of approximately 250 children from eight settlements in Donetsk Oblast. This decision comes because of a "critical security situation". Children, along with their parents or legal guardians, are expected to evacuate from Toretsk, Shcherbynivka, Petrivka, Nelipivka, and Pivnichne in the Bakhmut district, as well as Ocheretyne, Katerynivka, and Yelizavetivka in the Pokrovsk district. According to reports, they will be relocated to Zhytomyr Oblast, where they will receive shelter and humanitarian aid. As of now, 41 children have allegedly been relocated.
Britain is teaching Ukrainian engineers how to protect their energy system from potential threats from Russia.
A two-week training program was specifically developed and conducted at the request of Ukraine to enhance the defense of its energy sector. During this program, Ukrainian engineers were taught various essential skills. These included identifying vulnerable infrastructure elements, assessing potential blast distances and the impact of different weapons and explosives, as well as determining the optimal placement of physical and airborne barriers. All these measures were aimed at safeguarding these locations from potential attacks by Russia.
Ukraine is set to increase its domestic ammunition production.
Ukraine is set to increase its production of shells by engaging private companies in the process, according to Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, Oleksii Danilov. On October 26, Danilov stated that these companies had already ordered the necessary equipment, with some installations already taking place in restricted areas of their facilities. As a result, an uptick in domestic production is expected soon. Danilov highlighted that the shortage of ammunition is not only affecting Ukraine but also in its allies and even Russia.
Ukrainian military enlistment officials are suspected of illegally acquiring $7 million
The National Agency on Corruption Prevention has reported that six military enlistment officials are suspected of illegally acquiring assets worth over Hr 255 million ($7 million) in the past six months. The agency conducted lifestyle monitoring of the officials and their families, revealing their possession of expensive real estate and other properties without being able to provide evidence of a legal source of funds for their acquisitions. The agency has highlighted one of the most common forms of illegal enrichment among military enlistment officials: accepting bribes to help potential recruits evade the draft. The cases of the six officials have been forwarded to the appropriate authorities for further investigation.
Spanish law enforcement officers have confiscated ancient gold jewelry worth €60 million, which was stolen in Ukraine
The jewelry in question consists of 11 items, including necklaces, bracelets, and earrings that date back to the Greco-Scythian period between the eighth and fourth centuries B. C. These valuable artifacts were smuggled out under false documents in 2016 to be sold in Madrid. According to the documents, the jewelry was allegedly linked to the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, although it was not specified which specific branch. As of now, two Ukrainians, one of whom is an Orthodox priest, along with three Spaniards, have been arrested in connection with this case.
Political Developments
Zelensky's popularity in Ukraine is on the decline
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is experiencing a significant decline in his approval ratings, as revealed by a survey commissioned by the International Republican Institute (IRI) and funded by USAID. The latest poll, published last week, indicates that only 42 percent of Ukrainians "strongly support" the president, with an additional 40 percent offering some level of support. In comparison, the figures from April showed 58 percent strong support and 33 percent partial support. Furthermore, the survey highlights an increase in both partial and strong disapproval of Zelensky, rising from four and three percent in April to nine and seven percent in September. It was also shown that Ukraine's military was far more popular than the president, with a strong approval rating of 82%. However, this was a decrease from the 89% approval rating in April. Approximately 94% of Ukrainians still maintain their belief that their country will emerge victorious in the conflict with Russia, although this percentage has slightly decreased from 97% in April 2022. Additionally, only 68% of respondents are convinced that Kyiv will succeed in regaining all the territory it claims, specifically the "1991 borders," which include regions that voted to join Russia, including Crimea and Sevastopol. The survey, funded by a USAID grant, was conducted on a representative sample of 2, 000 Ukrainian adults.
The Prime Minister of Slovakia announced that his country will no longer be sending arms to Ukraine
Slovakia's newly appointed Prime Minister, Robert Fico, announced that his country will no longer send arms to Ukraine. He also pledged to promote this stance at the European level. However, during his speech to Slovak lawmakers, he emphasized that Bratislava would continue to provide humanitarian assistance.
Ukraine has received the ninth tranche of macro-financial assistance from the European Union, amounting to €1. 5 billion
In total, the EU budget support for 2023 amounts to €18 billion, with Ukraine having already received €15 billion. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal has mentioned that ongoing work is being done with the European Commission on a new long-term program called the Ukraine Facility, which will have a total value of €50 billion. Next year, Ukraine is expecting to receive €18 billion from this program.
The representatives of the European Union's Ministry of Foreign Affairs were unable to reach an agreement on the allocation of a 500 million EUR tranche for military aid to Ukraine
The EU's top diplomat, Josep Borrell, stated that they have not yet resolved the issue of the eighth and final tranche of the European Peace Fund. Media reports suggest that Hungary has once again blocked the tranche. Meanwhile, Orban compared Hungary's EU membership to the Soviet occupation, accusing the European Union of attempting to strip Hungary of its identity by imposing liberal democracy, which he believes Hungarians reject. "Today, things are emerging that serve as reminders of Soviet times. Yes, history does repeat itself at times," Orban stated during an event commemorating the anniversary of the Soviet suppression of the 1956 revolution.
The US has announced an aid package of $150 million for Ukraine.
On October 26, the U. S. Defense Department announced its decision to provide Ukraine with an additional military assistance package valued at approximately $150 million. This aid package encompasses various components such as air defense capabilities, artillery shells, anti-tank weapons, and other necessary equipment essential for deterring Russian aggression. Furthermore, the U. S. will also be sending Ukraine additional ammunition for the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS), High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), as well as artillery and small arms. This assistance aims to bolster Ukraine's defense capabilities and support their efforts in safeguarding their sovereignty. Ukraine's military will also receive a range of U. S. air defense missiles, including AIM-9M and Stinger types, as well as Javelin anti-armor systems, night vision devices, and cold weather gear, among other equipment.
Viktor Orban stated that the Ukrainians will not succeed on the front
According to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, the EU's strategy towards the conflict in Ukraine has "failed," and he believes that the bloc needs to develop an additional plan. Orban made these remarks on October 27th during the EU leaders' summit in Brussels. He emphasized that a significant battle is being fought, particularly concerning support for Ukraine, as it appears that the Ukrainians will not prevail on the front. According to him, Hungary sees no reason why it would send its taxpayers' money to support Ukraine. The European Commission has proposed that its members allocate additional funds to the common budget. This proposal aims to provide 50 billion euros to Ukraine and an additional 15 billion euros for migration.
On October 28, talks on Ukraine's peace plan commenced in Malta with the participation of officials from 65 countries
The two-day talks on the Ukrainian peace plan began on October 28 in Malta, with the participation of high-ranking officials from 65 countries. However, it is worth noting that representatives from Russia were absent. This marks the third round of such talks in recent months. Ukraine sees these talks as a valuable opportunity to garner support for President Volodymyr Zelensky's 10-point peace plan. Russia dismissed the initiative as biased and refused to attend the meetings. During the talks, five out of the 10 points of the plan will be discussed: nuclear security, energy security, food security, the release of prisoners of war and deportees, and the restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity.
Analysis of Priority & Political Updates
The global show of support for Ukraine has significant political ramifications on both regional and international levels. The backing from various nations underscores the complexity of the conflict and its implications for global security dynamics. As countries vocally condemn Russia's actions and express solidarity with Ukraine, diplomatic tensions rise, potentially leading to shifts in alliances and geopolitical strategies.
The United States and its NATO allies have been particularly vocal in their support for Ukraine, signaling a unified stance against Russian aggression and a commitment to upholding international norms and territorial integrity. This collective stance amplifies diplomatic pressure on Russia, potentially leading to sanctions and other punitive measures.
Furthermore, the global support for Ukraine underscores the importance of international law and norms in addressing conflicts and maintaining a rules-based international order. It serves as a reminder that actions violating sovereignty and territorial integrity are met with widespread condemnation and potential consequences, thus influencing the calculus of nations engaged in such activities.
The political impact of global support for Ukraine extends beyond the immediate conflict, potentially affecting broader diplomatic relations and regional stability. The unity of nations in support of Ukraine could embolden other nations to rally against aggression and assert their interests through international cooperation. However, it also raises the stakes of the conflict, increasing the potential for escalation and necessitating careful diplomatic navigation to prevent a wider crisis.
Conflict Zone Updates
Last week began when Russian forces initiated heavy attacks in several sectors of the eastern front. These attacks were observed in Avdiivka, Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, and Marinka, accompanied by ongoing shelling, bombing, and drone strikes along the entire front line. Additionally, they launched multiple attacks along the Lyman-Kreminna-Kupiansk line, targeting areas such as Synkivka, Ivanivka, Nadiia, and the Serebriansky Forest. According to the Ukrainian General Staff, there has been an unusually high number of daily clashes in the past few days, sometimes even double the numbers seen in mid-October. Furthermore, Moscow has been deploying a substantial force in the Lyman-Kupiansk direction in Ukraine's northeast since summer. There are also reports of Russian troops attempting to isolate Mariinka, a longstanding area of conflict on the eastern front. However, it appears that their biggest offensive is targeting the city of Avdiivka, which they have been attempting to capture since October 10. According to Vitalii Barabash, the head of the Avdiivka military administration, Russian forces are relentlessly shelling a vital road that connects to the town. This strategic maneuver seems to be designed to divert Kyiv's attention and resources from other sectors.
However, some analysts think that it appears Russia has encountered a positional deadlock in Avdiivka, resulting in significant losses. According to their reports, Russia has reportedly lost a significant amount of equipment (one-tenth) in the past 10 days alone. This includes 42 tanks, 49 infantry fighting vehicles, and 10 armored personnel carriers. Furthermore, Russians are also encountering issues on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, specifically near the coastal village of Krinki. According to reports from Russian military bloggers, Ukrainian troops have allegedly crossed the river, breached Russian defenses, and infiltrated the villages of Pojma and Pishchanivka on the east bank. It is now being reported that they are attempting to establish positions and bring in reinforcements to advance their operations under Russian army control. Heavy fighting in the area is currently ongoing.
In this regard, it is worth noting that the Ukrainian side has also begun employing new weapons on the battlefield. For example, the use of the American air defense system MIM-23 HAWK has been recorded for the first time. These air defense systems were acquired from Spain and the US as part of military aid. Ukraine received one battery from Spain and an additional 8 launchers from the US and Spain. In addition to this, Ukraine has recently unveiled a new ground drone called Ratel S or Honey Badger, which is specifically designed to target Russian tanks. This drone is equipped to carry bombs and anti-tank mines, operate silently, and navigate challenging terrains. It enables Ukrainian forces to effectively engage Russian positions from a safe distance. With a maximum speed of 15 miles per hour, it has a payload capacity of up to 77 pounds. Another novelty on the battlefield is the American-made Scorpion self-propelled mortar. The use of this weapon was showcased by the soldiers of the so-called Kraken special unit.
In addition to the ongoing initiative by the Ukrainian troops, Kyiv's Security Service was also active last week. They successfully exposed three residents of Kherson who were directing Russian strikes on residential buildings. The investigation revealed that the group was organized by a former entrepreneur who had defected to the Russians after the city was captured. During a search of their residences, law enforcement found binoculars, mobile phones, and computers. They also seized pro-Kremlin symbols and Russian roubles, which the traitors had obtained as compensation for their cooperation with the Russians.
Air Raid Frequency Updates
In the field, having accurate and up-to-date information about air raid alerts is crucial for the safety and efficiency of personnel. Understanding the frequency, duration, and location of these alerts provides valuable insight that can significantly impact decision-making on the ground. Armed with this knowledge, personnel can plan their movements more strategically, avoiding high-risk areas during times of increased alert activity. With the help of this vital information, they can ensure safer operations while maximizing their resources effectively.
By analyzing the available information from October 23 to October 29 several key points can be observed:
● In contrast to the previous period, when Air Raid Alerts were primarily concentrated at midnight and noon, with another peak at 8 PM, the past week showed a different pattern. The highest peak occurred at 10 AM, with smaller peaks at 3 AM and 2 PM.
● Moreover, it is worth mentioning that the majority of Air Raid Alerts typically lasted between 30 minutes to 1 hour (176 times) or less than 30 minutes (122 times). It was rare to encounter Air Raid Alerts that lasted between 2. 5 and 3 hours, which only occurred 4 times.
● Furthermore, when comparing to the previous period, it is worth noting that there has been a slight change in the pattern of eventful days for Air Raid Alerts. Previously, Thursdays were identified as the most eventful days, closely followed by Wednesdays. However, the data from the last seven days indicates a subtle difference. Tuesdays were the most frequent days for Air Raid Alerts, occurring 79 times, followed by Mondays, Saturdays, and Sundays with 68, 65, and 64 occurrences respectively. On Fridays and Thursdays, Air Raid Alerts were less frequent, occurring between 31 and 30 times.
● Finally, the regions of Kherson and Mykolaiv had the highest concentration of Air Raid Alerts, with 70 and 52 respectively. In contrast, the Lviv and Zakarpattia regions had a minimal number of Air Raid Alerts, with only 1 each.
Analysis of Conflict Development
Recent updates in the Ukraine conflict suggest potential shifts in tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTP), which could have far-reaching implications for the conflict's trajectory in the near future. Reports indicate a notable increase in hybrid warfare tactics, including cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns targeting both military and civilian infrastructure. This suggests an evolving strategy to undermine Ukraine's stability beyond traditional battlefield engagements.
Leadership changes have also emerged as a significant development. New announcements indicate a reshuffling of top military personnel, potentially signifying adjustments in strategic direction. Such changes may lead to alterations in operational tactics and coordination among different units. Furthermore, the influx of foreign fighters, equipment, and military advisors on both sides has the potential to introduce novel combat techniques, potentially escalating the conflict's intensity.
In terms of equipment and infrastructure developments, recent reports suggest the deployment of advanced weapon systems, including long-range artillery and anti-ship missiles, which could alter the dynamics of engagements and complicate defensive strategies. Additionally, developments in electronic warfare capabilities have the potential to disrupt communication and surveillance systems, further shaping the battlespace.
In the coming weeks and months, the conflict's course could be influenced by these developments. A mix of traditional and hybrid tactics might lead to an increasingly complex battlefield, with information warfare playing a more prominent role. Leadership changes could either introduce more aggressive approaches or open doors to diplomatic solutions. As both sides incorporate advanced weaponry and tactics, the potential for more intense and unpredictable confrontations could reshape the conflict's trajectory.
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