Publish Date: 05NOV2023
Security & Geopolitical Analyst: MF
Contributing Authors: CT, MSO, ML, VV
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Summary
Over the past 7 days, a series of significant events have taken place that are directly or indirectly linked to the ongoing Ukrainian conflict. These developments have captured the attention of both regional and global audiences:
The German Minister of Defense has assessed that there is a risk of war in Europe
The Russian Defense Minister has stated that the West aims to expand the European conflict into the Asia-Pacific region
Dmitry Medvedev has warned that Poland is at risk of direct confrontation with Russia and Belarus
Putin has signed the law to revoke the ratification of the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty
The United Nations believes that Russia is responsible for the attack in Hroza, which resulted in the tragic loss of 59 lives
Sources say that U. S. and European officials have broached the topic of peace negotiations with Ukraine
Zelensky disagreed with Zaluzhnyi’s assessment that the situation at the front is a stalemate and rejected media reports suggesting that the West is pressuring Ukraine to negotiate with Russia
A Russian mercenary group is recruiting women to fight in Ukraine
There is a new curfew in Kirovohrad Oblast
Kyiv has filed an indictment against Russian Patriarch Kirill
Prigozhin's son has assumed the role of the new head of the Wagner PMC
According to the survey, corruption has emerged as the most pressing issue in Ukraine
Ursula von der Leyen visited Kyiv on November 4th
Germany has delivered another batch of military aid to Ukraine
The Netherlands has prepared a new military aid package worth €500 million for Ukraine
The United States is providing Ukraine with a new aid package worth $425 million
On November 2nd, a Gallup poll revealed a declining trend of support for Ukraine among Republican voters
Representatives from the occupation administration of Yalta in Crimea visited Turkey and participated in a meeting of the International Organization of United Cities and Local Authorities
Cars with Russian license plates in Latvia will be confiscated starting from February 14th
Ukraine has sent a diplomatic note to Poland regarding the threats to block traffic at the border
Kyiv labels Nestle as a 'sponsor of the war' for its decision to remain in Russia
Threat Mapping Updates
Mapping Analysis
The previous week started with the Ukrainian counteroffensive, primarily in the southern region. However, the progress remained slow and limited in scope. Analysts predict that the focus will shift to Avdiivka, with some attention also given to Kupiansk. To make significant advancements, the Ukrainian forces will need to breach the Russian defenses and reach the target cities of Tokmak, Berdiansk, and Vasylivka. It is worth mentioning that significant progress has been made in the direction of Bakhmut. Ukrainian troops have advanced beyond the railway line since the beginning of the previous week. Additionally, there has been progress to the west of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with ongoing attacks south of Bakhmut and offensive actions on the Melitopol front. Furthermore, the Ukrainian forces have successfully repelled multiple ground attacks from Russia along the front line. Considering the significant obstacles they face, such as minefields, airstrikes, shortages of specialized equipment, troop exhaustion, and uncertain signals from Washington, it is widely believed that their further progress is heavily limited. Many analysts agree that achieving significant success will largely depend on much-needed external support, particularly the promised fighter planes. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, over 90, 000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or wounded since the beginning of the Ukrainian counter-offensive. Nevertheless, authorities in Kyiv assert that the Russian side has mobilized all of its resources in an attempt to retain its current gains in Ukraine. According to their statements, Russia may be able to sustain hostilities and exert increased pressure in certain areas of the front, but it lacks the strategic capability to maintain the ongoing confrontation.
In this regard, it is noteworthy that on the first day of November, Russia launched a series of mass strikes across the entire front, making it the most significant strike of the year. A total of 118 settlements were shelled on that day alone. Speculations have arisen suggesting that this increase in attacks may be attributed to the delivery of over a million artillery missiles and other weapons from North Korea to Russia in approximately 10 shipments since the beginning of August. Nonetheless, both the Ukrainian and Russian sides are escalating the frequency of their attacks. Russia has launched heavy strikes on Odesa, Kharkiv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, and Kherson, utilizing drones. These attacks targeted not only military objectives but also civilian infrastructure. However, the current primary focus is on Avdiivka, where the Russians are conducting an offensive reminiscent of Soviet-style tactics, showing little regard for their own resources or troops. Many believe that this type of tactic, combined with the approaching winter season, marks the beginning of a new phase in the war. They are also making efforts to regain the initiative in other areas on the eastern front, particularly in Kupiansk and Bakhmut, where they have transitioned from a defensive stance to an offensive one. Meanwhile, they are facing multiple and increased Ukrainian drone and missile attacks, with a particular focus on Crimea. As evidence, it is worth noting that on October 30 alone, Ukrainian forces successfully carried out multiple attacks on the Russian air defense system located on the western coast of Crimea in the Black Sea. In response to these threats, Russia is compelled to strengthen its air defense in strategic locations. In this regard, it is worth noting that Russia has deployed a minimum of ten S-400 systems near the airfield in the Rostov region. This deployment was likely influenced by the fact that Ukraine has received ATACMS systems with a range of 165 kilometers. In addition, the Russians have conducted a military exercise in the Kaliningrad exclave, which involved a range of fixed-wing and rotary-wing aircraft. While this exercise appeared to be a drill aimed at defending the region against potential external attacks, it could also be seen as part of increased activities and offensive actions by the Russian side. Furthermore, it can be seen as one of several factors contributing to the escalation, especially when considering the statements made by political actors in the past week.
Priority Updates
The United Nations believes that Russia is responsible for the attack in Hroza, which resulted in the tragic loss of 59 lives
The United Nations has stated that it has found "reasonable grounds" to conclude that Russia was responsible for a missile strike that resulted in the tragic death of 59 individuals in a cafe located in the Ukrainian village of Hroza. These findings have been published in a report that is based on two fact-finding missions conducted by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights in Hroza. The missions involved interviews with 35 individuals, including residents, witnesses, and medical staff. In Geneva, the spokeswoman for the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights stated that there are reasonable grounds to believe that the missile was launched by the Russian armed forces. She further mentioned that there were no indications of military personnel or any other legitimate military targets present in or near the restaurant during the time of the attack.
Sources say that U. S. and European officials have broached the topic of peace negotiations with Ukraine
According to a current senior US official and a former senior US official familiar with the discussions, US and European officials have quietly started engaging with the Ukrainian government to explore the possibilities of peace negotiations with Russia in order to bring an end to the ongoing war. According to officials, the conversations have involved discussing broad outlines of what Ukraine may need to compromise on to reach a deal. These talks, described as delicate, occurred last month during a meeting of representatives from over 50 nations supporting Ukraine, including NATO members. The officials referred to this group as the Ukraine Defense Contact Group.
Zelensky disagreed with Zaluzhnyi’s assessment that the situation at the front is a stalemate and rejected media reports suggesting that the West is pressuring Ukraine to negotiate with Russia
Commenting on statements made by the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian military forces, Zaluzhnyi, President Volodymyr Zelensky denied on November 4 that Ukraine's war with Russia had reached a "stalemate". Earlier, Zaluzhnyi wrote in an article published in The Economist that the war in Ukraine is entering a new phase, transitioning into a positional war of attrition. This development, according to Zaluzhnyi, plays into Russia's hands as it allows them to restore their military potential and pose a renewed threat to Ukraine's existence. The Ukrainian leader also dismissed the notion that Western countries were pressuring him to engage in negotiations with Russia, despite reports of US and EU officials discussing the details of such talks with Kyiv. "No one among our partners is pressuring us to sit down with Russia, talk to them, and give them something," he said. "We have already been in very difficult situations when there was almost no focus on Ukraine," he continued, but confidently added, "I am absolutely sure we will overcome this challenge." He added that the Russian Federation has air superiority, which is why Ukraine was promised the F-16. However, training takes time. Zelensky made this statement during a press conference held on November 4, alongside European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
A Russian mercenary group is recruiting women to fight in Ukraine
According to the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD), a Russian mercenary group is making efforts to recruit women for combat roles in Ukraine. In its daily intelligence briefing for Monday, October 30, the MoD reported that Redut, a state-backed private military company, is specifically seeking women to serve as snipers and drone operators in its Borz Battalion. It is worth noting that Redut, formerly known as Shield, has ties to the GRU, Russia's foreign intelligence agency. This group is a part of a mercenary force that protects the commercial operations of Russian companies. It has been deployed in Ukraine since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in 2022.
There is a new curfew in Kirovohrad Oblast
Starting from November 1st, the curfew in Kirovohrad Oblast will be extended by two hours. The new curfew hours will be from 23:00 hrs to 05:00 hrs. Currently, the curfew lasts from 24:00 hrs to 04:00 hrs.
Kyiv has filed an indictment against Russian Patriarch Kirill
On November 4, Ukraine filed an indictment against Russian Patriarch Kirill in absentia, as announced by the Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine. The Ukrainian prosecutor's office has accused the Russian patriarch of encroaching on Ukraine's territorial integrity and inviolability. According to data from the investigation conducted by the Security Service of Ukraine, he is considered a key member of Russia's top military-political leadership and has been one of the earliest proponents of an all-out war against Ukraine. In the past, the Ukrainian prosecutor's office has repeatedly issued indictments against Russian officials in absentia. Unfortunately, these actions have had no consequences for them.
Prigozhin's son has assumed the role of the new head of the Wagner PMC
The Wagner Group has allegedly resumed recruitment in Perm and Novosibirsk, Russia, as a unit within the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia). The group is reportedly led by 25-year-old Pavel Prigozhin. The recruits are expected to have combat experience, while individuals with a criminal record or medical limitations are allegedly excluded. Those who meet the requirements are said to be signing contracts with Rosgvardia.
According to the survey, corruption has emerged as the most pressing issue in Ukraine
According to a recent survey, more than half of Ukrainians consider corruption to be the most pressing issue in their country, along with the ongoing military hostilities. The results, published on November 1, reveal that 63 percent of respondents identified Ukraine's high level of corruption as its biggest problem. Furthermore, the study found that 46% of respondents expressed concerns about low salaries and pensions. Additionally, between 20% and 24% of the 2, 007 participants expressed worries about high utility bills, demographic challenges arising from Ukrainian refugees not returning from abroad, and high unemployment. The survey also revealed that 15% of Ukrainians are concerned about the country not being invited to NATO, while 8% worry about the potential failure of Kyiv's EU membership talks.
Ursula von der Leyen visited Kyiv on November 4th
On November 4, Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, made a surprise visit to Kyiv. During her visit, she announced that she would be holding talks on EU enlargement and the continuation of EU financial and military aid to Ukraine. The most important message conveyed during the visit was the assurance that the EU will stand by Ukraine for as long as necessary, as stated by von der Leyen. Among the topics to be discussed, according to announcements, will be a new package of EU sanctions against Russia.
Germany has delivered another batch of military aid to Ukraine
The list includes two TRML-4D radar systems for IRIS-T anti-aircraft missile systems, 12 armored personnel carriers, seven Primoco ONE reconnaissance drones, five surface drones, 32 satellite communication terminals, five heavy-duty tractors, and four semi-trailers, as well as 12 MAN TGS trucks and other equipment. Additionally, Germany is preparing to hand over 25 Leopard 1A5 tanks, which were funded as part of a joint project with Denmark.
The Netherlands has prepared a new military aid package worth €500 million for Ukraine
"Ukrainians require support to sustain their struggle, particularly in terms of ammunition," stated Dutch Defense Minister Kaisa Ollongren during her two-day visit to Ukraine, as reported by Het Parool. The minister further emphasized that a new aid package has been offered to Ukraine. The aid is expected to be dispatched by the middle of next year, with a total value of approximately €500 million. Out of this amount, around €260 million will be allocated for artillery shells, while €240 million will be dedicated to tank ammunition.
The United States is providing Ukraine with a new aid package worth $425 million
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced a military aid package worth $125 million, which includes the supply of weapons from Pentagon arsenals. The package will facilitate the transfer of ammunition for NASAMS air defense and HIMARS MLRS, artillery shells, anti-tank systems, warm clothing, and the purchase of anti-UAV equipment, as clarified by the Pentagon. Furthermore, an additional $300 million has been allocated by the United States to enhance the Ukrainian air defense system. These funds are part of the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI).
On November 2nd, a Gallup poll revealed a declining trend of support for Ukraine among Republican voters
According to a Gallup poll conducted on November 2nd, 41% of US citizens believe that the US is providing excessive assistance to Ukraine. This figure has increased from 29% in June. The poll also revealed that 62% of Republicans and 44% of independents share the view that Washington DC is offering too much support to Kyiv, while only 14% of Democrats polled hold the same opinion. On the other hand, 37% of respondents believe that the US should continue its financial support for Ukraine as long as it is requested, while 61% believe that there should be a time limit on such assistance. The results of the poll indicate a declining trend of support for Ukraine among Republican voters. This emphasizes the significance of the 2024 US presidential elections in determining the future provision of long-term US aid for Ukraine.
Political Developments
Representatives from the occupation administration of Yalta in Crimea visited Turkey and participated in a meeting of the International Organization of United Cities and Local Authorities
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine is demanding explanations from Turkey regarding this visit. The spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry emphasized that UN General Assembly resolutions require refraining from actions that could undermine the status of Crimea. This includes refraining from engaging with the occupying administrations.
Cars with Russian license plates in Latvia will be confiscated starting from February 14th
According to the national television and radio company LSM, the Latvian parliament has recently amended the traffic law. As per the amendment, cars with Russian license plates must be re-registered by mid-February, under the risk of confiscation. Unregistered vehicles with Russian license plates found moving through Latvia's territory after February 14 will be confiscated and transferred to Ukraine. Moreover, unauthorized use of a Russian vehicle not registered in Latvia can result in a fine ranging from 750 to 2, 000 EUR.
Ukraine has sent a diplomatic note to Poland regarding the threats to block traffic at the border
According to Ambassador Vasyl Zvarych, the Ukrainian Ambassador to Poland, it is hoped that the Polish authorities can come to an understanding with potential protesters to prevent border blockades. Such threats from protesters to disrupt traffic at checkpoints do not contribute positively to Poland's image, nor to the Polish entrepreneurs involved or planning to be involved in Ukraine's reconstruction projects. According to Zvarych, the embassy has sent an official note to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Poland, requesting measures to prevent the blocking or restriction of movement across the Ukrainian-Polish border.
Kyiv labels Nestle as a 'sponsor of the war' for its decision to remain in Russia
Ukraine has recently added Nestlé to its list of "international supporters of the war" due to its activities in Russia. The Swiss food giant has been accused of "feeding the aggressor" by the Ukrainian government. In a statement issued by the National Agency on Corruption Prevention (NAZK) on Thursday, it was emphasized that despite Russia's aggression against Ukraine, Nestlé continues to operate and supply products to the population in the aggressor country while also expanding its production there. The designation given by the agency to international companies has no legal consequences.
Analysis of Priority & Political Updates
The global show of support for Ukraine has significant political ramifications on both regional and international levels. The backing from various nations underscores the complexity of the conflict and its implications for global security dynamics. As countries vocally condemn Russia's actions and express solidarity with Ukraine, diplomatic tensions rise, potentially leading to shifts in alliances and geopolitical strategies.
The United States and its NATO allies have been particularly vocal in their support for Ukraine, signaling a unified stance against Russian aggression and a commitment to upholding international norms and territorial integrity. This collective stance amplifies diplomatic pressure on Russia, potentially leading to sanctions and other punitive measures.
Furthermore, the global support for Ukraine underscores the importance of international law and norms in addressing conflicts and maintaining a rules-based international order. It serves as a reminder that actions violating sovereignty and territorial integrity are met with widespread condemnation and potential consequences, thus influencing the calculus of nations engaged in such activities.
The political impact of global support for Ukraine extends beyond the immediate conflict, potentially affecting broader diplomatic relations and regional stability. The unity of nations in support of Ukraine could embolden other nations to rally against aggression and assert their interests through international cooperation. However, it also raises the stakes of the conflict, increasing the potential for escalation and necessitating careful diplomatic navigation to prevent a wider crisis.
Conflict Zone Updates
Given the belief held by many, including the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian military forces, that the situation on the ground has reached a stalemate, there is significant importance being placed on electronic warfare, the utilization of drones in combat operations, and air-defense capabilities. In this sense, it can be said that both sides are making great efforts to outplay each other and have achieved certain successes. For example, it is worth noting that Ukrainians have become more efficient in using shoulder-mounted anti-aircraft missiles (MANPADS). This is evident from the fact that they were able to successfully shoot down a Su-25 fighter jet at the end of October. Furthermore, despite the recent installation of a powerful radio GPS jammer by the Russians in the south of Ukraine, designed to interfere with the signals used to direct GPS-guided munitions and drones, the Ukrainian forces successfully managed to blow it up using a GPS-guided bomb. Moreover, at the beginning of November, they successfully located and destroyed the Russian Krasukha-4 EW system in the Zaporizhzhia region. This system is designed to provide radar detection coverage for troops and large areas. The operation utilized drones and shells. With drones proving to be extremely useful for the Ukrainian troops, their production is constantly increasing. For instance, Escadron FPV alone supplies the Ukrainian forces with up to 2743 FPV drones per month and has plans to increase production to 4000 units. However, this is just a part of the overall supply. It is estimated that other companies combined deliver a total of 30, 000 drones to the Ukrainian military per month. Given the increasing effectiveness and cost-efficiency of these drones, it is worth considering the statement made by the Head of the Main Directorate for Combat Strike Systems of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. On November 5, he announced that Ukraine is preparing a major drone attack for the winter, targeting various regions of Russia.
In addition to the points mentioned, it is important to note that new technologies are constantly emerging as well. One notable example is the Piranha AVD 360 electronic warfare system, which has been specifically designed to protect Ukrainian armored vehicles from Russian drones. In early November, it was announced that this system had successfully completed field tests and was now ready for mass production.
On the other hand, Russia is taking measures to reduce the effectiveness of Ukrainian drones, specifically by bolstering its air defense systems. Consequently, the Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones, which initially played a significant role in Ukraine's military achievements, are now encountering efficiency challenges due to the improved Russian air defense capabilities. Moreover, the Russians are also constantly improving their MANPADS and drones by introducing new parts and technologies. For example, it is interesting to note that the Russian Verba man-portable infrared homing surface-to-air missile (MANPADS) utilizes electronic components of Swiss origin. Specifically, a power converter manufactured by the Swiss company Traco Power was found in the optical three-band homing head of the 9M336 missile. Additionally, the Vostok battalion has recently received the first batch of Scalpel kamikaze drones. These drones were developed through their own initiative, with the participation of the army itself and funds collected from citizens. The Scalpel is an affordable alternative to the Lancet, being 17 times cheaper and specifically designed for operation in the "security pocket" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In other words, it can be used in areas where Russian artillery cannot reach, conventional drones cannot fly, and the target range is too short for missiles.
In addition, Russian forces will soon receive BMPs (infantry fighting vehicles) from "Kurganmashzavod" that are equipped with electronic warfare (EW) systems. These systems provide specialized protection against FPV drones.
Overall, the situation on the ground is constantly evolving, with both existing weapon systems advancing and new technologies emerging. The quality and effective utilization of these weapons can offer a significant advantage in specific contexts and may even prove to be a decisive factor in various battles.
Air Raid Frequency Updates
In the field, having accurate and up-to-date information about air raid alerts is crucial for the safety and efficiency of personnel. Understanding the frequency, duration, and location of these alerts provides valuable insight that can significantly impact decision-making on the ground. Armed with this knowledge, personnel can plan their movements more strategically, avoiding high-risk areas during times of increased alert activity. With the help of this vital information, they can ensure safer operations while maximizing their resources effectively.
By analyzing the available information from October 30 to November 5 several key points can be observed:
● In contrast to the previous period, when Air Raid Alerts were primarily concentrated at 10 AM, with smaller peaks at 3 AM and 2 PM, the past week showed a different pattern. The highest peak occurred at noon.
● Moreover, it is worth mentioning that the majority of Air Raid Alerts typically lasted between 30 minutes to 1 hour (147 times) or less than 30 minutes (124 times). It was rare to encounter Air Raid Alerts that lasted between 2 and 2. 5 hours, which only occurred 16 times.
● In addition, it is interesting to observe that there has been a subtle shift in the pattern of eventful days for Air Raid Alerts compared to the previous period. Previously, Tuesdays held the highest frequency of Air Raid Alerts, followed by Mondays, Saturdays, and Sundays. However, recent data from the past week reveals a slight change. While Tuesdays still top the list with 85 occurrences of Air Raid Alerts, Thursdays have now emerged as the second most eventful day with 72 occurrences. On the other hand, Fridays had the lowest frequency with only 35 reported Air Raid Alerts.
● Finally, it was discovered that Kherson had the highest concentration of Air Raid Alerts, with a significant total of 63 incidents. In contrast, the Zakarpattia region experienced a minimal number of Air Raid Alerts, with only one recorded occurrence.
Analysis of Conflict Development
Recent updates in the Ukraine conflict suggest potential shifts in tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTP), which could have far-reaching implications for the conflict's trajectory in the near future. Reports indicate a notable increase in hybrid warfare tactics, including cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns targeting both military and civilian infrastructure. This suggests an evolving strategy to undermine Ukraine's stability beyond traditional battlefield engagements.
Leadership changes have also emerged as a significant development. New announcements indicate a reshuffling of top military personnel, potentially signifying adjustments in strategic direction. Such changes may lead to alterations in operational tactics and coordination among different units. Furthermore, the influx of foreign fighters, equipment, and military advisors on both sides has the potential to introduce novel combat techniques, potentially escalating the conflict's intensity.
In terms of equipment and infrastructure developments, recent reports suggest the deployment of advanced weapon systems, including long-range artillery and anti-ship missiles, which could alter the dynamics of engagements and complicate defensive strategies. Additionally, developments in electronic warfare capabilities have the potential to disrupt communication and surveillance systems, further shaping the battlespace.
In the coming weeks and months, the conflict's course could be influenced by these developments. A mix of traditional and hybrid tactics might lead to an increasingly complex battlefield, with information warfare playing a more prominent role. Leadership changes could either introduce more aggressive approaches or open doors to diplomatic solutions. As both sides incorporate advanced weaponry and tactics, the potential for more intense and unpredictable confrontations could reshape the conflict's trajectory.
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