Publish Date: 19NOV2023
Security & Geopolitical Analyst: MF
Contributing Authors: CT, MSO, ML, VV
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Summary
Over the past 7 days, a series of significant events have taken place that are directly or indirectly linked to the ongoing Ukrainian conflict. These developments have captured the attention of both regional and global audiences:
Poland has deployed a tank battalion near Belarus
Scholz assures that he is ready for new talks with Putin
There have been reports of Ukrainian children being relocated by Russia to Belarus, where they are allegedly subjected to military training and reeducation
Residents in the occupied areas of Ukraine are being coerced into obtaining Russian passports
There have been allegations that Russia has been involved in activities that could potentially cause famine in Ukraine
Since the beginning of the war, 20, 000 men have fled Ukraine to avoid conscription
Zelensky has fired an official from the Foreign Intelligence Service
The Assistant Secretary General of NATO stated that there is currently no specific timetable for Ukraine's entry into the military-political alliance
A Russian man has been sentenced for desecrating a poster that glorified the "heroes" of the Ukraine invasion
A politician has been imprisoned on remand in Ukraine for alleged "pro-Russia treason"
Russian artist Alexandra Skochilenko has been sentenced to seven years in jail for her anti-war price tag protest
The EU has approved $107 million in new aid for Ukraine
Pakistan has been accused of secretly supplying artillery shells to Ukraine
The EU will not be able to fulfill its pledge to supply Ukraine with one million rounds of ammunition
There is a leak in the primary circuit of power unit 5 at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant
Estonia has accused Russia of encouraging the influx of migrants, while Finland is seeking to close four border crossings
The conflict between Israel and Hamas has hindered the delivery of missiles to Ukraine
The representatives of Polish road carriers, who are currently blocking the border with Ukraine, state that the recent talks with Ukrainian officials have been unsuccessful in resolving the dispute
Ukrainians are rallying to demand a cap on military service and the return of those who have served 18 months
Ukrainian oligarch Rinat Akhmetov borrowed $400 million from a Russian bank
The Russian Federation is allegedly preparing a disinformation campaign targeting Ukraine, reportedly named "Maidan-3"
Russian forces have destroyed a significant portion of Ukrainian literature in the temporarily occupied territories of eastern Ukraine
Without any exceptions, the Czech Republic has frozen all Russian state assets on its territory
The Security Service of Ukraine has exposed the managers of Russian oligarch Konstantin Grigorishin, who are responsible for causing a loss of UAH 43 million to the Ukrainian budget
Russian figures suggest that the Western oil sanctions are not proving effective
A large anti-radiation shelter, spanning over 1, 000 m², has been opened in the Novosilkiv Lyceum in the Kyiv region
The Ukrainian President has approved the NSDC decision on updated personal sanctions against Azarov, Tabachnyk, and Aksyonov
British Foreign Minister David Cameron arrived in Kyiv on November 16th
The EU agrees with Zelensky's assessment of the Russian threat in the Western Balkans
The mayors of Kyiv and Brussels, Vitali Klitschko and Philippe Close, have signed an agreement to enhance cooperation between the two capitals
Dmitry Medvedev's son is included in the new package of EU sanctions against Russia
Zelensky has signed a law that redirects the personal income tax of military personnel from local budgets to the state budget
Slovakia has decided to cease sending military aid to Ukraine
The French minister announced that Ukraine will no longer receive free weapons
Great Britain will increase financial assistance to Ukraine
Finland has provided Ukraine with a new defense aid package
Lithuania has announced the provision of a new military aid package to Ukraine
Denmark is considering the possibility of blocking Russian oil tankers from crossing through its waters
Moldova has joined four out of the six packages of sanctions introduced by the EU against Moscow
The UAE will soon impose restrictions on the export of dual-use goods to the Russian Federation
The Dutch government has announced plans to provide an additional $2. 2 billion in military aid to Kyiv in 2024
The details of the €8 billion aid package for Ukraine have been published by the German Ministry of Defense
Germany's €8 billion aid to Ukraine is currently facing a setback due to a budget gap
Serbia expresses its desire to assist with the reconstruction of Ukraine
Threat Mapping Updates
Mapping Analysis
As winter approaches, Russian forces are making efforts to regain the initiative at the theater-level in Ukraine. This is being done through multiple simultaneous offensive operations in the eastern part of the country. The Ukrainian authorities confirm, to some extent, that there is ongoing Russian offensive activity in seven directions, with three of them being considered critical: Kupiansk, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka. The Russians persistently attempt to encircle Avdiivka and utilize aviation in their operations. Furthermore, their troops employ armored vehicles to target the industrial zone and frequently launch attacks on high-rise buildings in the town. Most recently, they have made advancements towards the village of Stepove. Specifically, it has been reported that Russian forces are "improving their tactical positions" to the east of Stepove, which is located approximately 4 km northwest of Avdiivka. Additionally, they had advanced near Novokalynove, which is situated 7 km north of the same area. According to a recent intelligence report from the British Defense Ministry on November 16th, there is a strong indication that Russia is attempting to encircle the town using a pincer movement. Verified footage posted two days earlier shows Russian units advancing into the Avdiivka industrial zone near Yasnynuvata Lane, which is approximately one kilometer southeast of the city. Additionally, reports suggest that Russian forces are in close proximity to the town's large coke plant, which is strategically positioned near the main entry road.
Furthermore, over the past week, there have been persistent and ongoing attacks on Bakhmut, Kherson, Kharkiv, and particularly on Nikopol, which has been repeatedly targeted. On November 14th, Russian forces made tactical gains in the area surrounding Bakhmut. Geolocated footage confirms that Russian troops have successfully advanced to positions north of the Berkhivske Reservoir, approximately 5 km northwest of the town. Furthermore, they have made certain progress by moving westward along a tree line west of Orikhovo-Vasylivka, which is situated 10 km northwest of Bakhmut. It is worth noting that the "Storm" unit of the 98th Guards Airborne (VDV) Division played a significant role in capturing positions on the western flank of the town.
In addition, Russian forces have made advancements to the west of Volodymyrivka along the Kupyansk direction. They have successfully repelled four Ukrainian attacks near Zahoruykivka and Tymkivka, while also launching five offensives near Kreminna, Dibrova, and Bilohorivka. At the end of the week, they conducted a drone attack on the Odessa region, targeting a critical infrastructure facility. However, it remains uncertain whether Russian forces will be able to regain full control of the situation. Ukrainian forces are applying pressure on key areas of the front and successfully shooting down the majority of Russian drones.
Moreover, Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued ground operations on the eastern (left) bank of Kherson Oblast and made advances on November 13th. Russian military bloggers claimed on 12 and 13 November that Ukrainian troops are holding positions near Krynky (30 km northeast of Kherson Oblast and 2 km from the Dnipro River) and have slightly expanded their control zone to the south of the settlement. This information was also confirmed by Andrii Yermak, the Head of the Ukrainian President's Office, who stated on November 13th that Ukrainian forces have successfully established a "foothold" on the eastern (left) bank of Kherson Oblast. He pointed out that despite facing intense shelling from Russian forces, Ukrainian troops have managed to hold onto key positions and make progress along the left bank of the Dnipro River. This has been further supported by geolocated footage. In this regard, it is important to note that the Russian forces also conducted air and artillery strikes on the western (right) bank of the river on November 14th. Furthermore, the Russian military is moving units to counter Ukrainian attacks near Krynky. There is "intense fighting" ongoing near Poyma and Pidstepne, both situated four kilometers inland from the Dnipro River. Additionally, Pishchanivka, which is three kilometers inland, is also affected by the conflict. According to information from the field, there are nearly four to ten Russian ground attack attempts made every day in an effort to push back the Ukrainian troops. Multiple Ukrainian officials have acknowledged the challenging situation along the contact line. However, they have emphasized that Ukrainian forces are effectively maintaining control of the battlefield. According to their statement, one of their current goals is to secure the safety of civilians by pushing the Russians away from the right bank. In this regard, sabotage, raiding, and reconnaissance operations are being conducted to identify the logistical supply routes of ammunition and food to the occupiers. Additionally, reconnaissance is being carried out to locate personnel and equipment of the Russian occupation forces, as well as artillery positions, with the objective of destroying them using conventional means. Despite the presence of a robust line of fortifications and strong resistance from the Russians, the General Staff of Ukraine reported that they had successfully executed several operations.
In terms of other directions, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently referred to Avdiivka as "one of the most intense areas on the frontline." In the Mariupol direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces effectively defended against multiple Russian attacks in the areas of Maryinka and Novomykhailivka. Additionally, Yuri Fedorenko, the commander of the Ukrainian Achilles Company, highlighted that the situation in Bakhmut has become more challenging due to the "constantly evolving tactics employed by Russian forces" and their extensive use of drones. In response to these challenges, Ukraine is actively exploring ways to leverage the winter season to its advantage. The primary aim is to disrupt the supply chains of Russian forces. This has been confirmed by Volodymyr Fito, a spokesperson for Ukraine's Ground Forces. He stated that although fighting usually slows down during winter conditions, the combination of rain and frost could present an opportunity for Ukraine. Fito specifically mentioned that their main objective during the winter months is to disrupt the supply chains and logistics of Russian occupation forces, both on the frontlines and behind them. In this regard, the Ukrainian president believes that Ukraine is better prepared for winter compared to previous years. He added that the winter will present challenges but highlighted that Ukrainian air defense is in better condition compared to last year. Zelensky emphasized the Ukrainian army's success in shooting down 75 to 80 percent of the Iranian-made explosive drones frequently used by Russia during night attacks. He also noted that Ukraine has taken the initiative in the Black Sea, surpassing Moscow, and forcing Russia's naval fleet and warships to retreat. Zelensky attributes this success to Kyiv's effective utilization of naval drones. According to his statement, Ukrainian forces have consistently targeted Russia's navy in the Black Sea over the past year. According to Ukrainian data, 15 Russian vessels have been destroyed in the Black Sea since the beginning of the war, with 12 others being damaged. As a result, the Kremlin has been compelled to withdraw warships from its naval base at Sevastopol and relocate them along the coast.
In conclusion, it is important to highlight that both the Russian and Ukrainian militaries share a common challenge: a shortage of junior officers with the ability to lead large forces in battle. This has been an ongoing issue for Russia and is now increasingly affecting Ukraine's military as it expands. As both militaries continue their combat operations, they may encounter difficulties in training a sufficient number of officers to address this shortage.
Priority Updates
There have been reports of Ukrainian children being relocated by Russia to Belarus, where they are allegedly subjected to military training and reeducation
Since the war began, thousands of Ukrainian children have been separated from their families. According to a recent report from Yale University, over 2, 000 of these children have found themselves in Belarus. The study, conducted by the Yale School of Public Health's Humanitarian Research Lab, focused on the deportation of Ukrainian children and revealed that the Russian and Belarusian governments have collaborated to organize these deportations. The report relied on a combination of open-source research and high-resolution satellite imagery. According to the report, a staggering number of 2, 442 children from Ukraine have been transported to Belarus since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war. These children, aged between six and 17, were relocated by the coordinated efforts of the two allied countries, offering them a new life in Belarus. However, it is concerning to note that eight out of the 13 facilities where these children are placed in Belarus are found to have reeducation programs that serve the "political interests of Belarus' regime," as revealed by the report. According to Yale, in certain cases, these programs may include military training. The report also revealed that at least nine groups of children have been subjected to reeducation programs, and six groups of kids have been compelled to undergo some form of military training. Furthermore, the report highlights that there are at least two groups of children who were deported from Ukraine and taken to the bases of the Internal Troops of Belarus, which is a paramilitary law enforcement force in the country. In addition, dozens of children have received medical treatment of an uncertain nature, referred to as "rehabilitation" by the Belarusian government.
Residents in the occupied areas of Ukraine are being coerced into obtaining Russian passports
According to a recent investigation by the BBC, the Kremlin has initiated a comprehensive campaign aimed at pressuring Ukrainians in occupied territories to adopt Russian citizenship. The report reveals that Ukrainians are being denied access to healthcare and freedom of movement unless they agree to become Russian citizens. Furthermore, evidence suggests that pensions and food assistance are withheld from individuals who do not possess Russian passports. It is worth noting that in the past, Russia issued passports to residents of the breakaway Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. These passports were later cited as part of Russia's justification for its invasion of Georgia in 2008.
There have been allegations that Russia has been involved in activities that could potentially cause famine in Ukraine
If proven true, this could potentially lead to new charges against Putin in The Hague. Global Rights Compliance, an international organization, has gathered evidence indicating that Russia is preparing for famine in Ukraine. A recent report by human rights experts reveals that Russian forces have intentionally targeted regions abundant in grain and food production infrastructure since the beginning of the conflict. The organization discovered that a Russian defense contractor started buying grain trucks and three new 170-meter bulkers as early as December 2021, suggesting early planning for the large-scale theft of Ukrainian food resources. Less than a week after the invasion, Russia began taking control of Ukrainian farms, and at its peak, it was exporting 12, 000 tons of grain per day from all occupied territories.
Since the beginning of the war, 20, 000 men have fled Ukraine to avoid conscription
According to the BBC, approximately 20, 000 men have fled Ukraine since the start of the full-scale war to avoid being drafted into the country's army. However, Ukraine's State Border Guard Service (SBGS) claims to be unaware of these figures and states that attempted illegal border crossings have decreased in 2023. The BBC arrived at this number by obtaining data on illegal border crossings from Ukraine's neighboring countries, including Romania, Moldova, Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia. According to the BBC, there were 21, 113 men who attempted to escape but were detained by Ukrainian authorities (Ukraine's SBGS reported a smaller figure of 16, 700 people during martial law). Out of this group, the majority, 14, 313, tried to cross the border on foot or by water, while the remaining 6, 800 relied on fraudulently obtained official documents that falsely claimed exemptions from the draft, including fabricated illnesses.
Zelensky has fired an official from the Foreign Intelligence Service
On November 17, President Volodymyr Zelensky issued a presidential decree dismissing Oleksandr Tarasovsky from his role as the deputy head of Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service. Although the specific reason for his dismissal was not specified, Tarasovsky had been serving in this position since January 2022.
The Assistant Secretary General of NATO stated that there is currently no specific timetable for Ukraine's entry into the military-political alliance
According to David van Wiel, Assistant Secretary General of the North Atlantic Alliance, there is currently no specific schedule for Ukraine's entry into the military-political bloc. In an interview with the Asahi newspaper during his visit to Japan, a senior NATO official emphasized that Kyiv must fulfill certain conditions, such as modernizing its management system, in order to join the alliance. Despite Kyiv's aspirations to join the North Atlantic Alliance, it appears that Ukraine is unlikely to become a member in the near future. The Secretary-General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, himself acknowledged that Ukraine would not be able to join while the conflict on its territory persists. The idea of admitting Ukraine to NATO without the "liberated territories," which is advocated by certain American and European politicians, has not yet gained approval from the top leadership of the Alliance.
A Russian man has been sentenced for desecrating a poster that glorified the "heroes" of the Ukraine invasion
According to AFP, a 46-year-old man in Togliatti, Russia, has been sentenced to six years in prison for damaging posters that praised Russian military "heroes" in Ukraine. The man, identified as Alexei Arbuzenko by the Russian civil-rights group Memorial, was found guilty of "discrediting" the Russian military under a law that suppresses any form of dissent regarding Russia's "special military operation."
A politician has been imprisoned on remand in Ukraine for alleged "pro-Russia treason"
A Ukrainian politician, Oleksandr Dubinsky, has been imprisoned on remand following accusations of treason. In 2019, Dubinsky was elected as an MP for Volodymyr Zelensky's Servant of the People party but was subsequently expelled due to alleged insubordination. On Tuesday, the Ukrainian secret service detained him on suspicion of conducting information and subversive activities in favor of Russia, as well as spreading false information about the top military and political leadership. Dubinsky denies the charges and claims to be a victim of "political persecution". The trial date has not been set yet.
Russian artist Alexandra Skochilenko has been sentenced to seven years in jail for her anti-war price tag protest
Russian artist Alexandra Skochilenko has been sentenced to seven years in jail after being found guilty of spreading "false information" about the Russian military. This verdict was based on her act of replacing a few supermarket price tags with messages criticizing the war in Ukraine. Sasha, as she is commonly known, is just one of many Russians who have faced detention, fines, or imprisonment for expressing their opposition to Moscow's invasion of its neighbor. This incident highlights a concerning crackdown on free speech and opposition to President Vladimir Putin.
The EU has approved $107 million in new aid for Ukraine
The European Union has approved an additional $107 million (£87 million) of aid for Ukraine and $10. 7 million (£8. 7 million) for Ukrainian refugees in Moldova. According to the European Commission, this latest allocation brings the total for EU humanitarian aid in response to Russia's war in Ukraine to €843 million (£735 million). The funding will support aid organizations that provide shelter, healthcare, food, water, psychological support, and cash assistance. Additionally, in response to Russian attacks on the energy system, the EU is sending 84 more power generators to Ukraine.
Pakistan has been accused of secretly supplying artillery shells to Ukraine
Pakistan has been accused of secretly supplying $463 million (£376 million) worth of artillery shells to Ukraine through two US companies. According to BBC Urdu, the country signed contracts with Global Military and Northrop Grumman in August 2022, as reported by the US federal procurement data system. Data from the State Bank of Pakistan reveals a significant increase in arms exports, soaring from $13 million (£10 million) in 2021-22 to $415 million (£337 million) in 2022-23. In April, Pakistan's foreign office categorically denied the claims made by Volodymyr Zelensky to the BBC, in which he alleged that rockets had been received from Pakistan. Pakistan insisted that it had never supplied arms and ammunition to Ukraine. As of now, Pakistan has not yet commented on the BBC Urdu report.
The EU will not be able to fulfill its pledge to supply Ukraine with one million rounds of ammunition
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has stated that the European Union will not be able to meet its goal of supplying Ukraine with one million rounds of ammunition. Speaking to reporters before an EU Defense Council meeting in Brussels, he expressed the view that it is safe to assume that the target will not be achieved. The bloc pledged in March, stating that it would meet the target within 12 months by purchasing new ammunition and utilizing rounds from member states' existing stocks. However, Pistorius did not provide a detailed explanation for the failure, although he mentioned that the EU was collaborating with the arms industry to increase production.
There is a leak in the primary circuit of power unit 5 at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant
According to the explanation provided by the Energoatom State Enterprise National Nuclear Energy Generating Company (NNEGC), the primary circuit water, containing a boric acid solution, started entering the turbine hall deaerator and subsequently the steam generators. This incident occurred due to the incompetence of the Russian personnel, specifically the shift supervisor of the chemical workshop, who lost control over the saturation of the special water purification filters. The incident involving the leakage of reagents occurred due to the actions of the Russian invaders, who illegally transferred power unit No. 5 of Zaporizhzhia NPP to a state of hot shutdown. According to Petro Kotin, the president of Energoatom, the actions of the invaders could potentially compromise the integrity of the steam generator tubes, which goes against the regulations for safe power unit operation. Kotin emphasized that the invaders are putting the plant's safety at risk and causing continuous equipment degradation, leading to an increased likelihood of failures. This, in turn, could result in an emergency situation at any given moment. Furthermore, similar actions are being conducted with power unit No. 3. Specifically, efforts are being made to take power unit No. 3 out of repair and heat it up to a hot shutdown state in order to transition power unit No. 5 to a cold shutdown state. Energoatom has emphasized that several emergencies have already occurred due to violations of licensing conditions by the Russians at Zaporizhzhia NPP, with the most recent incident taking place on November 14, 2023. "In addition, the senseless decision of the current 'managers' of the plant to transfer it to a 'hot' state has led to a significant increase in liquid radioactive waste at the plant site, which poses potential harm to personnel, the public and the environment," the NNEGC explained.
Estonia has accused Russia of encouraging the influx of migrants, while Finland is seeking to close four border crossings
On November 16, Estonia's interior minister stated that Russia had extended a provocative measure, originally directed at Finland, to Estonia. This measure involves deliberately allowing asylum seekers without visas or residence permits to reach the common border crossing. The minister explained that Russia is releasing these individuals without any valid reason, which puts the responsibility of dealing with them on Estonia. This organized and deliberate activity clearly aims to burden border activities, as these individuals have no legitimate basis for entry into the European Union. He stated that Estonia has so far returned all individuals who attempt to cross the border without documents or permits. He also mentioned that Estonia has been in close communication with Finland and other neighboring countries. In line with this, on the same day, Finland announced that it would be closing four border crossings with Russia from the night of November 17th until February 2024. This decision was made after accusing Moscow of allowing undocumented migrants to move towards the border. In response to this decision, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov commented, stating, "Finland has chosen a path of confrontation with Russia. From the Kremlin's perspective, this is a significant mistake." Amid reports of the closure of four checkpoints on Finland's border with Russia, the Norwegian Minister of Justice, Emilie Mehl, has confirmed her readiness to take similar measures on the Norwegian side. Following Finland's decision in response to the influx of migrants, the Estonian government is also considering closing border crossing points with Russia.
The conflict between Israel and Hamas has hindered the delivery of missiles to Ukraine
According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas has caused a disruption in the delivery of missiles to Ukraine. Zelensky specifically highlighted the challenge Ukraine is facing in procuring 155-millimeter grenades, noting that warehouses worldwide are either depleted or have limited supply due to legal restrictions. He welcomed the US efforts to increase production of this type of ammunition. This is an important point to highlight, especially considering that both Ukraine and Russia are striving to maintain their artillery stockpiles after almost two years of war, which began when Moscow invaded Ukraine. Additionally, Ukraine is anticipating a new wave of Russian attacks on its energy infrastructure, similar to what occurred last winter.
The representatives of Polish road carriers, who are currently blocking the border with Ukraine, state that the recent talks with Ukrainian officials have been unsuccessful in resolving the dispute
Deputy Infrastructure Minister Serhiy Derkach, who represented Ukraine in the talks, highlighted that the main demand of the protesters is to revert back to the system of cargo transportation permits for Ukrainian drivers. However, he pointed out the absurdity of this demand, as the protesters are not directing their concerns to their own government but rather expect Ukraine to address the EU for permits. He further emphasized that the protesters seem solely focused on this particular issue and not interested in addressing any other matters. According to the Polish Ministry of Infrastructure, the protesters have outlined six requirements: 1. Reinstate the use of EU entry permits for Ukrainian lorries; 2. Strengthen the requirements for transportation within the framework of the EICMT (certificates of the European Conference of Ministers of Transport); 3. Prohibit the registration of companies with capital from outside the EU in Poland; 4. Ensure access to the Ukrainian Shliakh ("Way") system; 5. Implement separate queues for lorries from the EU in the Ukrainian eCherha system; and 6. Establish separate queues for empty cars. "We have not reached an agreement. The Ukrainian side is not taking our demands into account," stated Rafal Meckler, the organizer of the protest in the border town of Dorohusk.
Ukrainians are rallying to demand a cap on military service and the return of those who have served 18 months
On Monday, November 13, Ukrainians continued their rallies, calling for an amendment to the legislation that regulates military mobilization. Demonstrations were held in the cities of Khmelnytskyi, Kryvyi Rih, Lviv, Odesa, and Zhytomyr. Protesters demanded that the term of military mobilization be limited to 18 months and that those who have already served this period in the army be allowed to return home, as reported by Ukrainian media. Although the scale of the protests was smaller on Monday, dozens of people still took to the streets, continuing their protest from the previous day. The Ukrainian president's website published a petition calling for necessary amendments to the legislation, which has garnered the required 25, 000 votes to be considered by the head of state. The current law on military duty and service does not specify the length of service for mobilized individuals during martial law, a problem that protesters are urging to be addressed promptly. In February 2022, a general military mobilization was declared in Ukraine following Russia's aggression towards its southwestern neighbor.
Ukrainian oligarch Rinat Akhmetov borrowed $400 million from a Russian bank
According to the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ), Rinat Akhmetov, Ukraine's richest man, allegedly borrowed $400 million from Sberbank, Russia's largest bank. This information was obtained from leaked documents known as "Cyprus Confidential," which are part of a larger collection of files obtained from Cypriot financial service providers. The investigation revealed that Akhmetov allegedly transferred responsibility for a $400 million loan from Sberbank to a Cyprus-based subsidiary through his ownership of the Ukrainian energy giant, DTEK. These loans were reportedly issued by Sberbank before 2014 when Russia invaded Ukraine. Furthermore, in 2017, DTEK transferred ownership of several coal mines in Russia to its subsidiary based in Cyprus. Additionally, the investigation has uncovered allegations that Akhmetov acquired a luxurious penthouse in London in 2021 for £87. 5 million ($107 million) through a shell company registered in the British Virgin Islands. In response to the investigation, Akhmetov issued a statement to ICIJ, clarifying that the loans provided by Sberbank, and others were acquired before the illegal annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014. He emphasized that these loans were considered "standard practice for Ukrainian borrowers."
The Russian Federation is allegedly preparing a disinformation campaign targeting Ukraine, reportedly named "Maidan-3"
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has revealed the existence of a Russian disinformation campaign, referred to as 'Maidan 3', with the aim of causing internal chaos and inciting a coup in Ukraine. The campaign's objective is to sow division within Ukrainian society, create turmoil within the country, and ultimately remove the president from power. The name 'Maidan 3' is derived from Kyiv's central square, which played a pivotal role in the uprisings of 2004 and 2014, the latter resulting in the removal of the pro-Russian ex-president Viktor Yanukovych. President Zelensky has stated that he received this information from intelligence assets, which has been substantiated by Ukraine's partners. The information points towards the utilization of deep fakes and videos on social media platforms as part of a Russian special operation.
Russian forces have destroyed a significant portion of Ukrainian literature in the temporarily occupied territories of eastern Ukraine
In the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, literature is almost completely absent from local libraries. The destruction of books is being carried out by representatives of the occupation administrations, specifically by employees of "education departments". These occupants send reports on the destruction and replacement of literature in the temporarily occupied territories directly to the Ministry of Education of the Russian Federation. According to reports from the Center of National Resistance of Ukraine, Russian authorities label Ukrainian books as "extremist literature," encompassing any publications from 1994 to 2021. Interestingly, in 2023, Russians reportedly brought around 2. 5 million Russian books to the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine.
Without any exceptions, the Czech Republic has frozen all Russian state assets on its territory
The Czech Republic has taken decisive action by freezing all Russian state assets on its territory, without any exceptions. Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky confirmed this development, stating, "At my proposal, the government today approved the freezing of Russian state assets in the Czech Republic. This measure aims to put an end to the commercial activities that Russia employs to fund the killings of Ukrainians." It's important to note that this decision specifically targets state assets and does not affect private property or financial savings of individual Russians unless they are included in the sanction lists.
The Security Service of Ukraine has exposed the managers of Russian oligarch Konstantin Grigorishin, who are responsible for causing a loss of UAH 43 million to the Ukrainian budget
Based on the investigation materials, it has been found that from 2018 to 2021, the top management of the plant orchestrated a scheme to divert "shadow" budget funds by evading payment of land tax. This resulted in losses to the state amounting to over 43 million hryvnias. The organizers of this scheme then gradually transferred the embezzled amount to the accounts of Grigorishin's holding companies in the Russian Federation. To conceal the illegal "transactions," those involved portrayed them as repayments of the plant's financial obligations to the Russian oligarch's companies. The management of the Zaporizhia enterprise artificially manipulated the coefficient for paying the land tax as part of their criminal scheme. To achieve this, the defendants entered unreliable information into the financial, economic, and reporting documentation.
Russian figures suggest that the Western oil sanctions are not proving effective
According to Bloomberg, Western sanctions on the export of Russian oil are not depriving the Kremlin of income to finance the war in Ukraine. This indicates that the restrictions are not achieving one of their main goals. Data from the Ministry of Finance of Russia reveals that the flow of money to the state treasury has been increasing for several months. The newspaper reports that gross revenues from the three main tax sources of petrodollars nearly doubled between April and October, reaching over $13 billion last month.
A large anti-radiation shelter, spanning over 1, 000 m², has been opened in the Novosilkiv Lyceum in the Kyiv region
The premises can accommodate up to 590 people at the same time. The ventilation system is designed to allow individuals to stay there continuously for at least 48 hours. Heating is provided by a boiler room, and there is a centralized water supply. Moreover, there are stocks of bottled water available to ensure easy access to clean drinking water. In addition, an uninterrupted power supply is provided to ensure continuous operation. The premises also feature storage areas for products and a dedicated room equipped with necessary medicines for providing medical assistance. Lastly, one of the four entrances is specifically designed to accommodate individuals with reduced mobility.
The Ukrainian President has approved the NSDC decision on updated personal sanctions against Azarov, Tabachnyk, and Aksyonov
President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has signed a decree to enforce the decision of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) of Ukraine. This decision pertains to the application and amendment of personal special economic and other restrictive measures (sanctions), dated November 18. As a result, 10-year NSDC sanctions have been imposed on former Prime Minister Mykola Azarov, former Minister of Education Dmytro Tabachnyk, former People's Deputy Oleg Tsarev, and the head of the occupation administration of Crimea, Serhii Aksyonov. Restrictions have also been introduced for 100 individuals and 37 legal entities.
Political Developments
British Foreign Minister David Cameron arrived in Kyiv on November 16th
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on November 16 that the new British Foreign Minister, David Cameron, arrived in Kyiv on his first working visit abroad. They discussed strengthening air defense, protecting Ukrainians, safeguarding critical infrastructure, and touched upon the topic of weapons. Zelensky shared this news on Telegram, along with a short video of their meeting, according to Reuters. David Cameron, the former British Prime Minister, was appointed as the new Foreign Minister on Monday, November 13.
The EU agrees with Zelensky's assessment of the Russian threat in the Western Balkans
The European Commission has acknowledged the threat posed by the Russian Federation to the countries of the Western Balkans, which was also highlighted by President Volodymyr Zelenskyi during an interview with African journalists the day before. On November 15, the Ukrainian President emphasized the importance of the international community paying closer attention to the Balkans. He expressed concerns over reports suggesting that Russia may attempt to incite conflict between Balkan countries as a means to divert attention from the situation in Ukraine. "We stand in solidarity with the Ukrainian president on this issue. We are aware that Russia is actively engaging in actions to create discontent, political instability, foreign interference, and manipulation of information. That is why we are reinforcing our cooperation and support with our partners in the Western Balkans," stated Peter Stano, the spokesperson of the EU foreign policy service.
The mayors of Kyiv and Brussels, Vitali Klitschko and Philippe Close, have signed an agreement to enhance cooperation between the two capitals
On Thursday, November 16th, the mayors of Kyiv and Brussels, Vitali Klitschko and Philippe Close, officially signed a cooperation agreement between the two capitals. The signing ceremony took place during the Kyiv Investment Forum, which is being held in Brussels. "International support is crucial for the reconstruction and development of the Ukrainian capital," stated Klitschko. He highlighted the efforts of the Brussels platform, established by European cities last year to assist Kyiv, which has already initiated significant projects for the city. These include the establishment of a rehabilitation center for Ukrainian servicemen, as well as the provision of equipment for hospital departments and a laboratory dedicated to producing innovative biomedical products. According to official data from the Kyiv City Council, Ukraine's capital has already concluded sister city agreements with over 70 cities. Twelve of these agreements were established after the beginning of the full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022. The most recent additions to the list are Copenhagen and Berlin.
Dmitry Medvedev's son is included in the new package of EU sanctions against Russia
The European Commission is proposing a 12th round of sanctions against Moscow, which includes restrictions on numerous individuals. This list apparently includes the son of Dmitry Medvedev, who is targeted for allegedly orchestrating a disinformation and propaganda campaign in Ukraine. Among the 47 individuals that the commission wants to add to the existing sanctions lists, there is also a relative of Vladimir Putin - Anna Tsivileva. She chairs the "Defenders of the Fatherland" foundation, which provides support to Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine. Additionally, at the core of the proposal, which EU leaders will need to approve at the next summit in December, is a complete ban on the sale of Russian rough diamonds within the European Union. This ban has the potential to significantly reduce Russia's income by over €4. 5 billion.
Zelensky has signed a law that redirects the personal income tax of military personnel from local budgets to the state budget
President Zelensky has signed a law that redirects military personnel income tax from local budgets to the state budget. These funds will be allocated for the purchase of drones and armaments to strengthen the Ukrainian army.
Slovakia has decided to cease sending military aid to Ukraine
Slovak Defense Minister Robert Kalinak has informed NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg that Slovakia will no longer be supplying weapons and ammunition to Ukraine. The Ministry of Defense in Bratislava stated that Defense Minister Kalinak had a meeting with Secretary General Stoltenberg in Brussels, during which he conveyed the decision to halt military aid to Ukraine from the warehouses of the Slovak Armed Forces. Nevertheless, Slovakia will continue to support Ukraine by providing a wide range of humanitarian aid and technical support. It is important to note that this assistance does not contribute to any loss of life. The statement further emphasizes that the new decision of the Slovak Government is respected by NATO partner countries.
The French minister announced that Ukraine will no longer receive free weapons
The French authorities have made the decision to cease supplying weapons from their arsenals to Kyiv. Instead, they expect Ukraine to purchase new weapons from French companies using the allocated funds. This announcement was made by the French Minister of Armed Forces, who stated that negotiations are underway with Ukrainian colleagues to ensure that Ukraine acquires new howitzers using funds from a special fund. The goal is to relieve the French army from the responsibility of providing weapons from its own arsenal. The minister referred to a recently published parliamentary report, which states that the French military aid to Ukraine amounts to 3 billion euros. Additionally, the report highlights that 200 million euros have been allocated from the French budget to a special fund aimed at supporting Ukraine. This fund can be utilized by Kyiv specifically for the purchase of new weapons, but only from French suppliers. The minister emphasized that France provides substantial support, although not all its efforts are publicly disclosed. He highlighted two main areas of aid that Paris is focusing on providing Kyiv with air defenses, including defense against drones, as well as equipment for ground forces, such as artillery and transport.
Great Britain will increase financial assistance to Ukraine
Great Britain has allocated 10 million pounds to the Red Cross Society of Ukraine. This funding will be used to provide much-needed medical supplies to communities directly affected by Russian aggression, as well as to support the Red Cross in their work. Additionally, Britain will be providing over 7 million pounds to a consortium led by the international non-profit organization Nonviolent Peaceforce. This consortium supports volunteer organizations that deliver humanitarian aid to dangerous places on the front line. In addition, Great Britain has announced the allocation of an additional 1. 4 million pounds for the rescue work of the Mercy Corps in Ukraine, as stated by David Cameron, the head of the Foreign Ministry of Great Britain.
Finland has provided Ukraine with a new defense aid package
In a show of support for Ukraine's ongoing defense efforts, the President of Finland has made the decision to send an additional defense aid package. This marks the 20th package of defense aid that Finland has provided since the start of the full-scale invasion. The latest package is estimated to be valued at around 100 million euros, bringing the total value of Finnish defense materiel assistance to Ukraine to 1. 5 billion euros. The country's Ministry of Defense stated that for operational reasons and to ensure the safe delivery of aid, they will not provide additional information regarding the contents of the package, the delivery method, or the schedule.
Lithuania has announced the provision of a new military aid package to Ukraine
On Friday, November 17th, the Lithuanian Defense Ministry announced the delivery of a new military aid package to Ukraine. "Lithuania will firmly adhere to its obligations to support Ukraine and today handed over a new batch of military aid to Ukraine. Aid in the form of power generators and field rations will contribute to the provision of Ukraine's urgent needs on the battlefield, especially in the cold season," said the publication of the Ministry of Defense of Lithuania in X. The 160 kW stationary diesel generators will generate power and supply facilities in areas where power lines are unavailable or experience interruptions in their operation. Additionally, on the same day, the Lithuanian Defense Ministry made the decision to transfer anti-drone equipment.
Denmark is considering the possibility of blocking Russian oil tankers from crossing through its waters
According to the Financial Times (FT), Denmark is considering inspecting and potentially blocking the transit of Russian oil tankers through its territorial waters. This action would mainly target Russian oil tankers that operate without Western insurance, as some have chosen to do since the U. S. and its allies imposed a $60 per barrel price cap on Russian oil exports. According to sources, the price cap implemented on November 14 was deemed largely ineffective as Russian oil continued to trade at prices well above it, often exceeding $20. In addition to this, Western companies have been reluctant to offer insurance coverage to ships that do not comply with the price cap. To address this issue, Denmark has the option to utilize existing international laws that permit states to inspect cargo ships suspected of environmental violations. The European Union (EU) has raised concerns about the adequacy of non-Western insurance, specifically in cases where fraudulent insurance policies have been discovered. This raises concerns about the potential lack of coverage for oil spills. Consequently, Denmark may have grounds to halt and inspect Russian oil tankers, potentially preventing them from proceeding further. However, according to sources, the success of the plan would depend on the capacity of Denmark's naval authorities to stop and check the tankers. This also raises the question of what Copenhagen would do if a ship refused to comply with the instructions to stop. In this regard, it is important to note that blocking the Danish straits or restricting access for Russian oil tankers would undoubtedly have a significant impact on Russia's export capacity. According to the FT, around 60% of Russia's seaborne oil exports, including all the oil shipped through the Baltic Sea, pass through these narrow Danish straits on their way to international markets.
Moldova has joined four out of the six packages of sanctions introduced by the EU against Moscow
The Minister of Foreign Affairs and European Integration, Nika Popescu, announced this during a press conference. "There are still some sanctions packages being analyzed from the perspective of their economic impact on Moldova. Our primary goal is to preserve the stability and security of our country. We thoroughly analyze all decisions regarding Moldova's participation in new sanctions. Currently, there are six packages of sanctions that impact individuals and entities from the Russian Federation. At this stage, Moldova has joined four of them," stated Popescu.
The UAE will soon impose restrictions on the export of dual-use goods to the Russian Federation
According to Bloomberg, the UAE is set to impose restrictions on the export of dual-use goods to the Russian Federation. The restrictions will apply to both direct exports and re-exports. The UAE officials have stated that the shipment of dual-use goods to conflict zones will be limited and closely monitored. In addition, it has been reported that Turkey is also planning to introduce similar measures. However, the Ministry of Commerce in Turkey has declined to comment on this matter. According to Bloomberg, from January to July 2023, over 20, 000 firms exported approximately 7 billion euros worth of dual-use goods to Russia. Most of these companies were located in China and Hong Kong, followed by Turkey and the UAE, accounting for 6% and 4% of sales respectively. Other countries involved in the export were Thailand, Malaysia, Taiwan, Singapore, and Vietnam.
The Dutch government has announced plans to provide an additional $2. 2 billion in military aid to Kyiv in 2024
The Dutch government has allocated an additional 2 billion euros ($2. 2 billion) in military aid for Ukraine in 2024, demonstrating unwavering support for Kyiv's ongoing conflict with Russia, according to Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren. This funding is part of a comprehensive package that the Netherlands will provide to Ukraine next year, which includes an initial 102 million euros for reconstruction and humanitarian aid. The amount will be increased throughout the year if necessary. With this latest contribution, the total Dutch support for Ukraine during the conflict reached approximately 7. 5 billion euros, as stated by Ollongren.
The details of the €8 billion aid package for Ukraine have been published by the German Ministry of Defense
The German Ministry of Defense has recently published the details of its €8 billion ($8. 6 billion) aid package for Ukraine in 2024 on its official website. The shipments will consist of various items, such as 10 Leopard 1A5 tanks, 14 Bandvagn 206 vehicles, a Winsent mine-clearing tank, 10 vector reconnaissance drones, and approximately 1. 4 million rounds of small-arms ammunition. Additionally, the aid package includes a range of other munitions, vehicles, equipment, and ground-surveillance radar systems. Before the year ends, Berlin will also be sending two more IRIS-T air-defense systems. The German government announced last week that it would double its aid to Ukraine, making it the second-largest contributor to the counteroffensive after the United States.
Germany's €8 billion aid to Ukraine is currently facing a setback due to a budget gap
According to Reuters, the approval of €8 billion in defense aid for Ukraine couldn't be finalized due to a budget shortfall in Germany. The publication reports that Germany's budget committee halted final discussions on the 2024 budget project following a Constitutional Court ruling that banned the government from transferring €60 billion (or $65 billion) of unused pandemic funds to environmental initiatives and industrial support. According to Reuters, one of the two main budget bills that remain incomplete includes crucial projects, such as the doubling of military aid to Ukraine to €8 billion next year.
Serbia expresses its desire to assist with the reconstruction of Ukraine
Serbia has expressed its willingness to participate in the reconstruction efforts of Ukraine following the war initiated by Russia. Goran Vesić, Serbia's Minister of Construction, Transport, and Infrastructure, highlighted the recent launch of an initiative in collaboration with partners from the USA. This initiative aims to explore the potential involvement of Serbian construction companies in Ukraine's reconstruction projects. Vesić further mentioned organizing a meeting with Serbian construction companies who have shown a keen interest in participating in the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine.
Analysis of Priority & Political Updates
The global show of support for Ukraine has significant political ramifications on both regional and international levels. The backing from various nations underscores the complexity of the conflict and its implications for global security dynamics. As countries vocally condemn Russia's actions and express solidarity with Ukraine, diplomatic tensions rise, potentially leading to shifts in alliances and geopolitical strategies.
The United States and its NATO allies have been particularly vocal in their support for Ukraine, signaling a unified stance against Russian aggression and a commitment to upholding international norms and territorial integrity. This collective stance amplifies diplomatic pressure on Russia, potentially leading to sanctions and other punitive measures.
Furthermore, the global support for Ukraine underscores the importance of international law and norms in addressing conflicts and maintaining a rules-based international order. It serves as a reminder that actions violating sovereignty and territorial integrity are met with widespread condemnation and potential consequences, thus influencing the calculus of nations engaged in such activities.
The political impact of global support for Ukraine extends beyond the immediate conflict, potentially affecting broader diplomatic relations and regional stability. The unity of nations in support of Ukraine could embolden other nations to rally against aggression and assert their interests through international cooperation. However, it also raises the stakes of the conflict, increasing the potential for escalation and necessitating careful diplomatic navigation to prevent a wider crisis.
Conflict Zone Updates
As previously mentioned, there has been a surge in attacks by Russia along the entire front line. During the night of November 13-14, Russia launched a series of missile, air, and drone strikes targeting Ukrainian rear areas. Furthermore, Russian forces carried out offensive operations in multiple locations, including the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast on November 14th. They made advancements in some areas. On November 15th, attacks were conducted in Kharkiv, as well as in Kherson and surrounding villages like Bilozerka. The civilian infrastructure was damaged, resulting in the loss of three lives and several injuries, including at least one child. Drones have been extensively utilized in these attacks and continue to undergo constant improvements. This is supported by the fact that Russia is not exporting its Lancet drones due to high domestic demand. Moreover, recent reports have highlighted upgraded versions of the Lancet, further emphasizing its significance. These versions feature enhanced engines, warheads, and ranges, as well as improved tracking and optical technologies. However, it appears that not all the new features are integrated into a single model. Instead, these developments are distributed across various versions and production lots. For instance, one of the advanced models of the Lancet kamikaze drones is equipped with a supplementary camera unit and dual tandem warheads. These warheads have the capability to pierce overhead protective shields and Explosive Reactive Armor [ERA]. Other models of Lancets feature autonomous flight and automatic target recognition capabilities. Furthermore, there are reports suggesting that Russia's latest Lancet explosive drones are equipped with the ability to fire molten metal slugs. These projectiles have been reported to penetrate the supplemental armor relied upon by Ukrainian forces to protect their vehicles from drone strikes. In this regard, it is interesting to note that Russia has established a specialized rapid response unit equipped solely with various types of drones. Moscow has also allocated funds for a training center dedicated to unmanned rapid response operations. To date, the center has successfully trained over 150 skilled FPV drone operators.
In addition to drones, ground forces are also being built up. According to Russian sources, "Kurganmashzavod'' recently delivered another batch of new BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) to the Russian army. The exact number of vehicles remains undisclosed, but it is claimed that these new IFVs for the Russian occupying forces are equipped with mounts for installing additional armor plates and anti-cumulative gratings on the side and front projections. Moreover, Russian propagandists claim that the new BMP-3 IFV, intended for the occupation contingent in Ukraine, will have the capability to be equipped with EW devices. These devices are said to be able to "jam" the drones used by the Defense Forces of Ukraine. Testing of such equipment is already underway. Additionally, the Russian military has recently acquired all-terrain vehicles from China. Specifically, they have received Desertcross 1000-3 ATVs manufactured by Shandong ODES Industry Co., Ltd. These vehicles are currently stationed at the headquarters of the Southern Military District in Rostov-on-Don. According to multiple sources, Russia's military has already received 537 of these ATVs and plans to acquire an additional 500 in December 2023, followed by another 1, 090 in the first quarter of 2024. The total cost for this acquisition is stated to be nearly 4. 2 billion rubles, equivalent to $47 million.
On the other hand, the Ukrainians are making significant efforts to hold their positions on the east bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast. This has also been confirmed by Russian sources. According to these sources, Ukrainian soldiers are deployed from the railway bridge in the region all the way to Krinky, a village located 35 kilometers east of Kherson and two kilometers southeast of the Dnipro River. Heavy battles are currently taking place in this area. Russian military bloggers also claim that Russian troops attempted but failed to dislodge Ukrainian soldiers from Krynky. They further assert that Ukrainian troops are currently engaged in offensive operations near Poima (10 km southeast of Kherson and 4 km from the Dnipro River), Pischanivka (13 km southeast of Kherson and 3 km from the Dnipro River), and Pidstepne (17 km east of Kherson and 4 km from the Dnipro River). Additionally, there are claims that Ukrainian forces have deployed additional personnel to the Krinky area. It is further alleged that these forces have the intention to disrupt Russian logistics lines and target the infrastructure that connects the Russian contact zone to the rear areas in occupied Crimea, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. In addition to making limited yet significant progress in Kherson Oblast and displaying strong resistance against Russian pressures near Avdiivka, Maryinka, Sievierne, Tonenke, Vodiane, and to the east of Pervomaiske, Ukrainian forces have also conducted special operations deep inside occupied territories. These operations have targeted and eliminated high-value targets. Although the official confirmation of these operations' results is unavailable, they likely demonstrate the Ukrainian partisans' ability to coordinate effective attacks against Russian personnel within Russian-occupied Ukraine. Many think that further successful (or attempted) assassinations are likely in the coming weeks. Additionally, during combat missions on the Svatove front, the border guards from one of the combat units of the 15th mobile detachment successfully apprehended a 38-year-old Russian intelligence officer.
In addition to the mentioned developments, Ukrainians are actively enhancing their weapons systems and procuring new ones. It is worth noting that they have recently acquired the long-range Moroc drones. Moreover, they have successfully developed a compact electronic intelligence system named ETER. This announcement was made by Mykhailo Fedorov, the Minister of Digital Transformation of Ukraine. The development was funded as part of the Brave1 project, which aims to develop defense technologies. ETER is a compact set of direction finders designed to detect enemy signals from radio stations, drones, and electronic warfare systems. As stated, this system will assist the military in detecting enemy electronic warfare (EW) systems and launching drones along safe routes. Additionally, such a system can effectively counter EW systems, detect enemy positions and artillery locations, and deliver targeted effects. The ETER system is modular, allowing for quick replacement of damaged components. It has been reported that individual units of the Defense Forces are already utilizing this development.
Furthermore, it is interesting to note that the collaboration between Ukraine and the US has also resulted in the development of new and unconventional combinations of weapon systems. One example is the use of US missiles with Buk-M1 systems and HARM missiles on Soviet fighter jets. This innovative approach, known as the FrankenSAM program, involves combining Western and Soviet air-defense systems. According to reports, this mixed technology seems to be working and shows promising signs that it could help strengthen Ukraine's defenses during this critical time. US officials informed The New York Times in late October that testing has been ongoing for the past few months. These tests also involved combining Buk systems with RIM-7 Sea Sparrow missiles provided by the US, as well as integrating Soviet-era radars with American AIM-9M Sidewinder missiles. The continuous evolution of existing systems, combined with this hybrid technology, has compelled Ukraine to enhance its air defense capabilities. A recent example that exemplifies this is the successful interception of a Russian Su-25 assault aircraft near Avdiivka in the Donetsk region at the beginning of last week. This information was verified by Oleksandr Shtupun, the spokesperson for the Joint Press Center of the Defense Forces in the Tavria direction. He further emphasized that this incident marks the eighth instance of successfully neutralizing an aircraft of this type since October 10th. Drone utilization is also highly prevalent. In a span of just one week, the Strike units of the Drone Army successfully destroyed a total of 220 units of Russian equipment, which included 39 tanks and 57 artillery systems.
Additionally, it should be mentioned that on November 14th, Rheinmetall finalized an agreement to provide the Ukrainian government with five Caracal Air Assault Vehicles. This significant development, facilitated by financial support from the German federal government, positions Ukraine as the first country to deploy the Caracal. Deliveries are scheduled from late 2023 to early 2024. Furthermore, Rheinmetall has stated on its official website that it is preparing to supply Ukraine with 25 Leopard 1A5 main battle tanks and 5 BPz 2 evacuation vehicles. Ukraine will also receive 60 Gepard artillery systems that the US bought from Jordan. Lastly, there are also expected deliveries of the IRIS-T system, which will further enhance the Ukrainian defense capabilities. It is worth noting that these systems, along with the American Patriots, form the backbone of the country's air defense. According to the spokesperson of the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the IRIS-T system has proven to be highly effective, achieving a nearly 100 percent success rate in the field.
Air Raid Frequency Updates
In the field, having accurate and up-to-date information about air raid alerts is crucial for the safety and efficiency of personnel. Understanding the frequency, duration, and location of these alerts provides valuable insight that can significantly impact decision-making on the ground. Armed with this knowledge, personnel can plan their movements more strategically, avoiding high-risk areas during times of increased alert activity. With the help of this vital information, they can ensure safer operations while maximizing their resources effectively.
By analyzing the available information from November 13 to November 19, several key points can be observed:
● In contrast to the previous period, where the highest peaks of Air Raid Alerts were registered at 10 AM, noon, between 2 and 3 PM, with smaller peaks at 8 PM and 11 PM, the past week has shown a different pattern. The highest peak occurred at noon, with a smaller peak at 2 PM.
● Moreover, it is worth mentioning that the majority of Air Raid Alerts typically lasted between 30 minutes to 1 hour (103 times) or less than 30 minutes (90 times). It was rare to encounter Air Raid Alerts that lasted more than 3 hours, which only occurred 14 times.
● Furthermore, it is worth noting a slight shift in the pattern of eventful days for Air Raid Alerts compared to the previous period. In the past, Friday had the highest frequency of Air Raid Alerts, closely followed by Wednesday and Saturday. However, recent data from the past week reveals a noticeable change. Tuesday has now emerged as the most eventful day, with 62 occurrences, followed by Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday with 56, 54, and 50 occurrences, respectively. On the other hand, Sunday now has the lowest frequency, with only 29 reported Air Raid Alerts.
● Finally, it was discovered that Zaporizhia and Donetsk had the highest concentration of Air Raid Alerts, with 39 and 38 incidents respectively. In contrast, the Zakarpattia region experienced a minimal number of Air Raid Alerts, with only 2 recorded occurrences.
Analysis of Conflict Development
Recent updates in the Ukraine conflict suggest potential shifts in tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTP), which could have far-reaching implications for the conflict's trajectory in the near future. Reports indicate a notable increase in hybrid warfare tactics, including cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns targeting both military and civilian infrastructure. This suggests an evolving strategy to undermine Ukraine's stability beyond traditional battlefield engagements.
Leadership changes have also emerged as a significant development. New announcements indicate a reshuffling of top military personnel, potentially signifying adjustments in strategic direction. Such changes may lead to alterations in operational tactics and coordination among different units. Furthermore, the influx of foreign fighters, equipment, and military advisors on both sides has the potential to introduce novel combat techniques, potentially escalating the conflict's intensity.
In terms of equipment and infrastructure developments, recent reports suggest the deployment of advanced weapon systems, including long-range artillery and anti-ship missiles, which could alter the dynamics of engagements and complicate defensive strategies. Additionally, developments in electronic warfare capabilities have the potential to disrupt communication and surveillance systems, further shaping the battlespace.
In the coming weeks and months, the conflict's course could be influenced by these developments. A mix of traditional and hybrid tactics might lead to an increasingly complex battlefield, with information warfare playing a more prominent role. Leadership changes could either introduce more aggressive approaches or open doors to diplomatic solutions. As both sides incorporate advanced weaponry and tactics, the potential for more intense and unpredictable confrontations could reshape the conflict's trajectory.
SecurityACCESS Ukraine
Leveraging our extensive experience in Ukraine, Riley Risk has established the SecurityACCESS service, strengthening our local presence in Ukraine with our seasoned Risk Advisory team. This service amalgamates a range of critical solutions, meticulously designed to provide significant value to our clientele, ensuring their operations are secure, streamlined, and resilient in Ukraine's unique landscape. This strategic enhancement embodies our dedication to satisfying the growing demands posed by our clients' complex operational environment, in Ukraine and other global locations.
Riley Risk's SecurityACCESS service provides clients with access to a dedicated in-country security manager for full-time or part-time needs. Guided by our seasoned country security manager and support team based in Ukraine, we oversee comprehensive security management, provide localized safety training, generate detailed security analysis and reports, and conduct on-site venue assessments to devise effective risk mitigation strategies. Whatever the task, clients can trust that our tailored approach ensures security needs are met in alignment with their specific operational context.
Ukraine Core Capabilities
Our in-country services have evolved to meet organizational requirements with operational exposure in Ukraine, encompassing a broad spectrum of security support and risk management.
Here is a brief breakdown of our core offerings:
Ukraine Operational Presence and Expertise: Riley Risk maintains a dedicated full-time operations center in Kyiv, Ukraine, supplemented by the capacity to mobilize additional local experts throughout the country as needed. Our longstanding experience and expansive network in Ukraine reflect our commitment to providing tailored, premier risk management solutions. This operational presence ensures prompt and specialized responses to the complex dynamics of the region.
Travel Risk Management Support: Our approach is tailored to the unique risks of travel in designated regions, including High and Extreme risk locations. We offer policy guidance and protocols for both expatriates and national staff operating in Ukraine. Our services include planning, management, and monitoring for all travel, aligned with client-specific operational needs. This covers the creation of customized Journey Management Plans, location assessments, traveler briefings, and en-route tracking to ensure personnel safety.
Security Reporting and Alerts: We offer 24/7 surveillance, alerting, and incident response, complemented by twice-daily and real-time reporting tailored to the assigned personnel and risk context. Utilizing multiple vetted information sources, our in-country operations team validates threat data to deliver a robust monitoring solution for asset protection and risk mitigation.
In-Country Security Advisory Support: Our services include comprehensive venue security assessments and close protection for travelers. Additionally, we offer crisis management consultation, intelligence analysis, cyber threat assessments, and staff training on security protocols. These functions are designed to mitigate risk and ensure operational integrity for both expatriate and national personnel.
Additional Specialized Services Support: We provide an array of adaptable support services in Ukraine, ranging from deploying security-trained drivers in both armored and lower-profile non-armored vehicles, based on conducted risk and operational assessments. Our offerings also include communications support, Technical Surveillance Countermeasures (TSCM), and other pertinent risk advisory services.
To explore how our SecurityACCESS service can offer tailored, often cost-effective support, contact the Riley Risk Team here to set up an engagement call today.