Publish Date: 12NOV2023
Security & Geopolitical Analyst: MF
Contributing Authors: CT, MSO, ML, VV
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Summary
Over the past 7 days, a series of significant events have taken place that are directly or indirectly linked to the ongoing Ukrainian conflict. These developments have captured the attention of both regional and global audiences:
Zelensky has proposed extending the ban on the export of Ukrainian gas in 2024
The number of Ukrainians with temporary protection status in the EU has increased
Vasyl Zvarych has called for an end to the protests by Polish truck drivers who are blocking three border crossings with Ukraine
Russia has scheduled an emergency session of the Security Council and issued a warning to Kyiv and its allies, holding them responsible for any crimes committed against civilians
Russia lost its seat in the UN World Court
More than 100 British companies have admitted to breaching sanctions on Russia
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has apprehended three individuals involved in smuggling equipment for MiG-29 fighter jets in a sting operation
The SBU has exposed a Ukrainian consul who issued visas to migrants from Asian countries under false pretenses, allowing them to enter Ukraine
The European Commission (EC) has evaluated Ukraine's progress towards EU accession
The former NATO Secretary General has proposed admitting Ukraine to the Alliance without guarantees for the occupied territories
The aide of Army Chief Zaluzhnyi was killed by a grenade
Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR) has claimed responsibility for the killing of Mikhail Filiponenko
Trump has decided not to accept Zelensky's invitation to visit Ukraine
According to the White House, the US funds allocated for Ukraine have been depleted by 96%
The EU's foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, emphasized the importance of EU countries being politically prepared to compensate for the expected decrease in US aid to Ukraine
The plan by the European Union to allocate €20 billion in military aid to Ukraine is facing resistance
The French president has emphasized that December will be a critical period for the war in Ukraine
Hungary has announced its decision to block the negotiation process regarding Ukraine's accession to the EU
The Ukrainian government is prepared to seek a compromise with Hungary regarding language and education matters
Zelensky expressed his gratitude to the Netherlands for delivering the F-16 fighter jets
Great Britain has imposed sanctions on the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs
Australia has implemented new sanctions against Russia
Denmark will provide Ukraine with €40. 2 million package for reconstruction, which will include heating in Mykolaiv
US Transport Secretary Pete Buttigieg announced an infrastructure advisor for Ukraine during his visit to Kyiv
The Treasury Department and the US Secretary of State have called on Congress to approve a budget aid of $11. 8 billion to Kyiv
The Slovak government has rejected the fourteenth package of military aid to Ukraine
Germany has decided to double military aid to Ukraine
France is set to allocate an additional EUR 200 million to support the Ukrainian army
A senior Ukrainian officer coordinated the attack on Nord Stream
Threat Mapping Updates
Mapping Analysis
In the past week, it was observed that Ukrainians continued with larger-than-usual ground operations and achieved noticeable progress in certain areas of the front. This was particularly evident on the east bank of Kherson, which was also confirmed by Russian sources. Specifically, after conducting reconnaissance patrols on the Dnipro's left bank in May and deploying Marine infantry detachments across the river in September, Kyiv has now, for the first time, sent armored vehicles. Ukrainian Marines and support troops are reportedly digging in at least four sites along the east bank of the river, covering a stretch of territory 30-35 kilometers long. Furthermore, Ukrainian troops are continuing their offensive operation in the Melitopol direction, while also effectively holding ground in multiple locations. The Bilyi Vovk (White Wolf) unit of the Special Operations Center A deserves special mention for setting a record in terms of the number of Russian targets destroyed in a single night. According to the SSU, on November 9, they successfully destroyed eight tanks, three Msta-S self-propelled artillery systems, three D-30 howitzers, one armored vehicle, and five fortifications, along with at least 17 Russian infantrymen. Furthermore, Ukrainian troops have successfully repelled Russian attacks near Kupiansk and Maryinka, as well as in the settlements of Sinkivka, Petropavlivka, and Ivanivka in the Kharkiv region. They have also successfully defended Bohdanivka, Khromovo, and the southern part of the Donetsk region. Additionally, Ukrainians are intensifying the pressure on Crimea. The recent attack on the Askold warship in Kerch may prompt Russia to relocate its fleet farther away from the line of contact. In fact, it has already led Russia to take certain precautionary measures in this regard. This is indicated by the fact that amidst the escalating attacks on Crimea, specifically targeting the Crimean Bridge by Ukrainians, the Russians have taken the initiative to construct a railway.
According to Evgeny Balitsky, the Governor of the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, a project has started on the Donetsk side. It involves the construction of a railway connecting the village of Yakymivka to Rostov via Berdiansk and Mariupol. Balitsky stated that by building a railway line, even without electric traction or with diesel locomotives, the military's problem will be solved. As he explained, the new line will be positioned at a safe distance from the front line, ensuring that Ukrainian shelling does not pose a threat to trains. Meanwhile, the main focus for Russia remains on Avdiivka, where they are facing significant losses in their attempts to capture the city. However, despite Ukrainian forces holding the line, Russian troops continue to build up reserves. According to the latest field information, they have recently brought in approximately 40, 000 men along with ammunition of various calibers. Ukrainian aerial reconnaissance has also detected the movement of Russian anti-aircraft missile systems, such as the ZRGK Pantsir-S1 and ZRGK 2C6 Tunguska, towards the area. Furthermore, they are deploying a significant number of drones and artillery forces. According to local officials, the Russians have decided to delay launching a "third wave" of assaults due to a week of heavy rain. Vitaliy Barabash, head of the town's military administration, stated on national TV on November 9 that the third wave has not yet begun, but preparations are underway. So far, the Russians have managed to capture positions to the north, east, and south of the town. They are now attempting to completely encircle the area.
Additionally, according to the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, there have been reports of Russian military forces planting mines near critical infrastructure facilities in the occupied territories of the Kherson region. These explosives are being buried near stationary gas control points, electrical substations, and other vital infrastructure facilities. The Directorate has observed that these actions by the occupiers indicate a probable intention to destroy critical infrastructure elements in the event of a forced retreat.
Priority Updates
Zelensky has proposed extending the ban on the export of Ukrainian gas in 2024
According to Reuters, the President of Ukraine has proposed extending the current ban on the export of Ukrainian natural gas for the entire year of 2024. Additionally, Zelensky has urged the Ukrainian government to enhance the capacity of the gas transmission system to facilitate the import and storage of natural gas in underground facilities. In this sense, it is important to point out that Ukraine has plans to increase its gas production to 19. 1 billion cubic meters by 2023. The goal is for Kyiv to become self-sufficient and avoid the need to import fuel during the winter.
The number of Ukrainians with temporary protection status in the EU has increased
The number of Ukrainians with temporary protection status in the EU has increased by 32, 000 in just one month. Currently, there are almost 4. 2 million people who have left Ukraine due to the full-scale invasion and now hold temporary protection status in various EU countries. Most of these refugees reside in Germany, Poland, and the Czech Republic.
Vasyl Zvarych has called for an end to the protests by Polish truck drivers who are blocking three border crossings with Ukraine
The border crossings at Dorohusk and Hrbenne-Rava-Ruska (both located in the Lublin voivodeship) and Korczowa (in the Subcarpathian voivodeship) have been partially blocked by protesters. Their demands include the reinstatement of EU trade restrictions that were relaxed in 2022. They also argue that a digital queue system for Ukrainian truck drivers exiting the country is causing significant delays. The Polish government has stated that it is unable to fulfill the protesters' demands due to EU regulations, as the revocation of permits for Ukrainian truck drivers falls under the jurisdiction of these rules. The protesters, who are using trucks and tractors to block border crossings, also accuse their Ukrainian counterparts of illegally loading goods in Poland and other countries before returning to Ukraine. These disputes over trucking and grain highlight the challenges Ukraine will face in securing support for its EU membership application from Poland and other nations.
Russia has scheduled an emergency session of the Security Council and issued a warning to Kyiv and its allies, holding them responsible for any crimes committed against civilians
On November 8, Russia urgently requested a session of the Security Council following Ukraine's shelling of the center of Donetsk. The announcement was made by the deputy permanent representative of Russia to the UN. Previous reports indicated that the Ukrainian army had used American HIMARS systems to shell the center of Donetsk, leading to the deaths of at least 20 civilians and the injury of 11 others. The following day, during the emergency session on November 9, it was reported that six people were killed and 55 were injured in these attacks, including three children. The Permanent Representative of Russia to the UN emphasized that this represents "yet another flagrant violation of international humanitarian law norms by the Kyiv regime, further substantiating its questionable motives." He further stated that these attacks lack military justification. According to his report, the Ukrainian bombings since February 2022 have resulted in the tragic loss of 4, 755 civilian lives, including 140 children, and left over 5, 300 people injured.
Russia lost its seat in the UN World Court
On November 9, the UN announced that ICJ Judge Kirill Gevorgian of Russia did not secure the absolute majority of votes required in both the General Assembly and the Security Council. As a result, Bogdan Aurescu of Romania has replaced him as vice president of the court. This marks the first time in the 78-year history of the International Court of Justice (ICJ), also known as the World Court, that a justice from Russia has not served on the bench. The ICJ was established after World War II to resolve disputes between countries.
A senior Ukrainian officer coordinated the attack on Nord Stream
According to anonymous sources in Ukraine and Europe, the Washington Post reported on Saturday that a Ukrainian military officer coordinated last year's attack on the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline. No one has taken responsibility for the September 2022 blasts, which occurred off the Danish Island of Bornholm and caused damage to three out of four lines of the system that delivers Russian gas to Europe. Washington and NATO have labeled it as an act of sabotage, whereas Moscow claims it was an act of international terrorism. According to the Washington Post, Roman Chervinsky, a former intelligence official who served in the Ukrainian military's special forces, was in charge of a six-person team. However, he denies any involvement in planning the attack. A spokesperson for Ukraine's military told Reuters that they have no information regarding this claim.
More than 100 British companies have admitted to breaching sanctions on Russia
Official data shows that over 100 UK companies have admitted to breaching British sanctions against Russia since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Moscow last year. As of May 17, a total of 127 companies have voluntarily disclosed these violations to the UK government, according to a freedom of information request submitted to HM Treasury and reported by the Financial Times. By voluntarily admitting breaches and cooperating with investigations, businesses can reduce government penalties. Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the UK has placed sanctions on over 1, 600 individuals and companies. This widespread implementation of sanctions poses challenges for British businesses. Many of them have ongoing business relationships with Russian enterprises due to Russia's significant integration into the global economy, making it difficult to comply with the sanctions.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has apprehended three individuals involved in smuggling equipment for MiG-29 fighter jets in a sting operation
On November 8, Ukrainian authorities arrested three individuals who were involved in an attempt to smuggle equipment for MiG-29 fighter jets out of the country, as reported by Ukraine's SBU security service. The investigation revealed that the mastermind behind this scheme was a businessman from Kharkiv. He was responsible for offering aviation spare parts to potential foreign buyers through online platforms. The culprits attempted to illegally sell a batch of aircraft engine components to Asian buyers for nearly UAH 2. 5 million. There are indications that these components had been previously stolen from Motor Sich company.
The SBU has exposed a Ukrainian consul who issued visas to migrants from Asian countries under false pretenses, allowing them to enter Ukraine
The SBU has uncovered a case where a Ukrainian consul, in exchange for $3, 000, issued visas to migrants from Asian countries, falsely claiming they were students at Ukrainian universities. These individuals then exploited this opportunity to travel to the EU. According to the SBU, up to 900 people from countries with a "terrorist risk" utilized her services.
The European Commission (EC) has evaluated Ukraine's progress towards EU accession
The European Commission (EC) has assessed Ukraine's progress towards EU accession based on 7 criteria. The evaluation reveals that Ukraine has already fully met 4 of these criteria, which are as follows: 1) The implementation of legislation regarding the procedure for selecting judges of the Constitutional Court; 2) The completion of integrity checks for candidates for membership of the High Council of Justice and the establishment of the High Qualification Commission of Judges; 3) Aligning anti-money laundering legislation with FATF standards and approving a strategic plan to reform the entire law enforcement sector; and 4) Reform of the media sector to bring Ukrainian legislation in line with the EU Directive on audiovisual media services. However, the other three criteria, which include fighting against corruption, limiting the influence of oligarchs, and legislation on national minorities, are accompanied by recommendations for further implementation.
The former NATO Secretary General has proposed admitting Ukraine to the Alliance without guarantees for the occupied territories
Anders Fogh Rasmussen proposes admitting Ukraine to the Alliance, with the condition that Article 5 of the Washington Treaty does not apply to the territories occupied by Russia. He emphasizes that Ukraine's partial membership plan does not signify a freeze on the conflict, but rather serves as a strong message to Russia that it cannot hinder Ukraine's path to joining the Alliance. Rasmussen further asserts that the question of Ukraine's NATO membership should not be further postponed and needs to be addressed promptly, without delay until next year.
The aide of Army Chief Zaluzhnyi was killed by a grenade
The blast has been described as a "tragic accident," and the authorities are appealing to the public to await the outcome of an official investigation. According to the police, the explosion occurred in a family flat in Chaiky, located on the western outskirts of Kyiv, and was a result of careless handling of ammunition. However, it was later discovered that an additional five grenades had been found in the apartment. Tragically, one of these grenades, which had been given as a birthday present, exploded and resulted in the death of a close aide to Valery Zaluzhnyi, the head of Ukraine's armed forces. Major Hennadiy Chastyakov, 39, had just returned to his flat with gifts from his colleagues. He was opening them with his son when a tragic incident occurred. Major Chastyakov lost his life in the incident, and his 13-year-old son was left seriously wounded. Prosecutors have clarified that the grenade was accidentally triggered as the serviceman attempted to remove it from his son's possession. The serviceman's wife and daughter, who were also present at home during the explosion, did not sustain any injuries, according to preliminary information.
Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR) has claimed responsibility for the killing of Mikhail Filiponenko
On November 8th, Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR) claimed responsibility for the assassination of Mikhail Filiponenko, a prominent figure in the Russian-occupied Luhansk People's Republic. Filiponenko, previously the head of the LNR People's Militia, was killed in Luhansk city by a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED). The GUR stated that a special operation targeting Filiponenko was carried out in collaboration with representatives of the resistance movement. They also mentioned that the operation would continue to target war criminals and collaborators. This killing further demonstrates Ukraine's ongoing capability to conduct assassinations within Russian and Russian-occupied territory.
Trump has decided not to accept Zelensky's invitation to visit Ukraine
According to Ukrainian media, Trump stated, "I have great respect for President Zelensky, but I think it would be inappropriate to go to Ukraine at this time," during an interview with NBC television channel. Trump further mentioned, "The Biden administration is currently dealing with him [Zelensky], and I would not want to create a conflict of interest," emphasizing his comment. In response, Zelensky previously stated that it would take him 24 minutes to explain to Trump why the former U. S. president could not effectively manage the crisis in Ukraine.
According to the White House, the US funds allocated for Ukraine have been depleted by 96%
While acknowledging that progress has been slow, Kirby expressed confidence in Ukraine's ability to regain control of its territory. According to Kirby, the total amount of funds provided to Ukraine since the beginning of the war exceeds $60 billion. This includes not only security assistance but also economic, financial, and humanitarian aid. He further stated that approximately 96% of the remaining funds have been utilized. In recent weeks, funding to Ukraine has become a political controversy in the U. S., with the Biden administration firmly supporting continued support while partisan battles over aid shake the legislature.
The EU's foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, emphasized the importance of EU countries being politically prepared to compensate for the expected decrease in US aid to Ukraine
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, speaking at the Congress of the Party of European Socialists in Malaga, emphasized the need for EU countries to be politically prepared to compensate for the likely decrease in US aid to Ukraine. He highlighted that the European Union has already provided Kyiv with more assistance than the United States but stressed that the main guarantee of security for Ukraine should be its admission into the European family, which will require unity among EU member states.
The plan by the European Union to allocate €20 billion in military aid to Ukraine is facing resistance
According to sources, the European Union's plan to allocate €20 billion in military aid to Ukraine is facing resistance, including from Germany, and may not proceed in its current form, as reported by Reuters. Previously, the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, had suggested allocating €5 billion in military assistance to Ukraine over a span of four years. Germany, along with other EU countries, has raised concerns about the allocation of funds for the upcoming years. A Reuters source stated, "I won't say that this plan has failed yet, but it could certainly be improved. Germany has valid questions... we are dealing with a substantial amount of money." According to the agency, certain union members have expressed doubts about having sufficient funds to provide the level of assistance required.
The French president has emphasized that December will be a critical period for the war in Ukraine
French President Emmanuel Macron has emphasized the critical nature of the next month in the Russo-Ukrainian war, as Ukraine launches counteroffensive operations to reclaim its territory. Macron expressed concerns about the potential consequences if Russia emerges victorious, stating that it could result in the rise of a new imperial power in Europe. Such a development could pose a threat to other former Soviet states like Georgia and Kazakhstan, as well as the entire continent. Macron also acknowledged the possibility of engaging in peace talks with Russia, emphasizing the importance of honest and constructive negotiations to find a solution. However, he emphasized that it was not yet the right time for Ukraine to come to the table and negotiate. Macron stressed the importance of Ukraine making its own decisions regarding potential talks with Russia.
Political Developments
Hungary has announced its decision to block the negotiation process regarding Ukraine's accession to the EU
The European Commission is expected to present a positive report on the reforms in Ukraine, Moldova, and six Balkan countries that aspire to become members of the European Union. However, the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's government is threatening to veto it at the upcoming EU summit in December. The final decision will be made by European government leaders who must ratify the Commission's advice. Balazs Orban, Prime Minister Orban's political advisor and right-hand man, has spoken about this issue in particular. He was referring to the recently adopted language law in Ukraine, which mandates that minorities, including the Hungarian community, receive at least 70% of their education in the Ukrainian language. He believes that this law will put children from Hungarian-speaking families in Ukraine at a disadvantage in school. As he pointed out, new laws have unfortunately been introduced that have had a negative impact on the lives of Hungarians in Ukraine. Budapest strongly disagrees with this. Hungary's position is clear: as long as this law remains in place, there can be no discussions with Ukraine regarding their integration into the European Union. It is important to note that this is another reason why Hungary is opposing Ukraine in its relations with the EU. Recently, Hungary took a stance on the exclusion of the Hungarian bank OTP Bank from the list of international sponsors of the war. Despite Ukraine fulfilling this condition, Hungary still blocked financial assistance.
The Ukrainian government is prepared to seek a compromise with Hungary regarding language and education matters
Olha Stefanishyna, Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration of Ukraine, is confident that Ukraine will reach an agreement with Hungary regarding the fulfillment of EU requirements for the protection of the rights of national minorities. Stefanishyna emphasized her primary focus on ensuring the rights of Ukrainian citizens of Hungarian origin and expressed that she does not perceive this issue to be as problematic as portrayed by the actions and statements of the Hungarian government. She acknowledges that Hungary retains the right to potentially block Ukraine's accession to the EU, but she does not believe that the Hungarian issue should be regarded as the primary concern in the EU enlargement process.
Zelensky expressed his gratitude to the Netherlands for delivering the F-16 fighter jets
On November 7, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine expressed his gratitude to the Netherlands and Prime Minister Mark Rutte for their support in delivering F-16 aircraft. The Netherlands has sent five F-16 fighter jets to Romania, which will be utilized for training Ukrainian pilots. According to the Netherlands Ministry of Defense, there are plans to deliver 12 to 18 F-16 aircraft for use at the upcoming European F-16 Training Center in Romania.
Great Britain has imposed sanctions on the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs
According to a document published on the website of the British government, on November 9, Great Britain implemented sanctions against the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs. These sanctions were imposed due to their alleged involvement in receiving benefits or supporting the Russian government through business activities in strategically important sectors. Furthermore, certain Russian companies have also been included on the sanctioned list.
Australia has implemented new sanctions against Russia
Australia has implemented personal sanctions against individuals appointed by Russia, including collaborators, ministers, and high-ranking officials. These sanctions specifically target 28 individuals connected to the Kremlin who have been involved in violating international law and attempting to legitimize Russia's actions in Ukraine. These individuals have been implicated in activities such as organizing fake referendums, spreading disinformation campaigns, and engaging in acts of intimidation. The sanctions include entry bans to Australia and various economic restrictions imposed on these individuals. The Australian government has stated that these additional sanctions are a clear expression of the country's strong opposition to the actions of Russian President Putin and those who carry out his orders.
Denmark will provide Ukraine with €40. 2 million package for reconstruction, which will include heating in Mykolaiv
Denmark is providing support to Ukraine with a reconstruction package worth EURO 40. 2 million. This package includes various initiatives, such as the provision of 20 mobile heating boilers for the city of Mykolaiv and funding for repairs to the existing central heating system in Mykolaiv. It is worth noting that this is the second reconstruction package from Denmark to Ukraine since the launch of the Ukraine Fund in the spring of 2023.
US Transport Secretary Pete Buttigieg announced an infrastructure advisor for Ukraine during his visit to Kyiv
US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg arrived in Kyiv for an official visit on November 8th. "Our message today is clear: the United States supports Ukraine and the Ukrainian people," stated U. S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget A. Brink. Buttigieg mentioned that the purpose of his visit was to fulfill a key request by placing an infrastructure advisor in Kyiv. The Transportation Department (TD) has appointed Robert Mariner as the advisor, leveraging his decades of transportation project experience gained from working with the US Air Force and the US Navy. He will provide technical assistance on project delivery as part of the country's rebuilding efforts. The TD stated that Mariner has previously served as an advisor to the Transportation Counselor at the US Embassy in Afghanistan. According to Buttigieg, Mariner's posting is just one example of the many ways the US continues to support Ukraine and ensure its long-term connectivity to the world.
The Treasury Department and the US Secretary of State have called on Congress to approve a budget aid of $11. 8 billion to Kyiv
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and the head of the Agency for International Development Samantha Power have jointly sent a letter to Congress. In the letter, they call for expediting support for the administration's request to allocate $11. 8 billion in direct budget support to Ukraine. This request has been made by the US Department of Finance. As specified, Kyiv requires direct budget support to ensure the functioning of the country's economy and government, as well as to enable Ukraine to achieve success on the battlefield. The White House previously requested funds from Congress to assist Israel, and Ukraine, and for other purposes. However, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives is refusing to consider the joint request, proposing instead that the aid to Kyiv be considered separately after splitting it from the rest.
The Slovak government has rejected the fourteenth package of military aid to Ukraine
The Slovak government has rejected the fourteenth package of military aid to Ukraine, totaling 40. 3 million euros. This package was intended to include 4 million units of 7. 62 mm cartridges, 5, 172 units of large-caliber ammunition for 125 mm guns, 140 rockets for the Kub anti-missile system, eight mortars, and 1, 200 mines. The proposal for this aid package was prepared by the former leadership of the Ministry of Defense of Slovakia but was rejected by the new government under the leadership of Robert Fico.
Germany has decided to double military aid to Ukraine
According to Bild's report on November 11, Germany's coalition government has agreed to double the budget for military aid to Ukraine in 2024. Initially, the draft 2024 budget allocated four billion euros ($4. 3 billion) for this purpose. However, the government has made the decision to increase that amount to eight billion euros ($8. 6 billion), as stated by the German Defense Ministry.
France is set to allocate an additional EUR 200 million to support the Ukrainian army
The French government has announced its plans to allocate an additional 200 million euros to the fund supporting Ukraine. This decision will enable Paris to continue procuring equipment for the Ukrainian army. French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu made this announcement during a speech to the National Assembly, as reported by Franceinfo. The minister emphasized that this extension of assistance is part of the planned financial bill, which includes adjustments to budgets for the current fiscal year.
Analysis of Priority & Political Updates
The global show of support for Ukraine has significant political ramifications on both regional and international levels. The backing from various nations underscores the complexity of the conflict and its implications for global security dynamics. As countries vocally condemn Russia's actions and express solidarity with Ukraine, diplomatic tensions rise, potentially leading to shifts in alliances and geopolitical strategies.
The United States and its NATO allies have been particularly vocal in their support for Ukraine, signaling a unified stance against Russian aggression and a commitment to upholding international norms and territorial integrity. This collective stance amplifies diplomatic pressure on Russia, potentially leading to sanctions and other punitive measures.
Furthermore, the global support for Ukraine underscores the importance of international law and norms in addressing conflicts and maintaining a rules-based international order. It serves as a reminder that actions violating sovereignty and territorial integrity are met with widespread condemnation and potential consequences, thus influencing the calculus of nations engaged in such activities.
The political impact of global support for Ukraine extends beyond the immediate conflict, potentially affecting broader diplomatic relations and regional stability. The unity of nations in support of Ukraine could embolden other nations to rally against aggression and assert their interests through international cooperation. However, it also raises the stakes of the conflict, increasing the potential for escalation and necessitating careful diplomatic navigation to prevent a wider crisis.
Conflict Zone Updates
Last week started with Russian strikes on the Ukrainian army during a ceremony in a village near the front line in Zaporizhzhia. According to the reports, at least 20 people lost their lives due to an Iskander-M missile. In addition to Avdiivka, Russian forces have launched a large-scale offensive along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, Bakhmut area, and are continuing to apply pressure on Kherson, Klishchiivka and Verbove. According to a statement from the Kremlin, they have also reported the destruction of a Ukrainian military "stronghold" in the Lyman area of Donetsk. Additionally, they claim to have achieved some success in the Berkhivka area, while carrying out heavy shelling and bombing of Ukrainian positions in multiple locations. Odessa remains one of the primary targets, being struck by Onyx and Iskander-M missiles. Kyiv was also targeted. Both sides are utilizing drones and new weapon systems. Regarding drones, it should be mentioned that the Lancet drone has acquired the ability to destroy targets protected by nets. Specifically, the Russians have begun utilizing an updated version of the Lancet loitering munition that cannot be countered by cage armor and anti-drone nets. When the LM approaches the target at the necessary distance, it triggers the warhead. The resulting jet produced by the explosion travels the remaining distance and strikes the target. This technical solution effectively addresses the problem encountered with anti-drone nets, where older drone models with impact fuzes often encounter confusion and failure. According to recent reports, the Russians have also started using the Su-57, a new-generation multi-role fighter aircraft. It was initially deployed in the Luhansk region. Additionally, they have begun utilizing the modernized Krasnopol guided missile, which offers enhanced accuracy. Furthermore, the Russian army has recently received an additional 1, 900 tanks, with another 200 expected until the end of the year. Sergey Chemezov, the director of Russia's state-owned company Rostec, has announced that there will be a substantial increase in tank production by the end of 2023.
The ongoing training of several dozen Ukrainian soldiers on Hawk missile systems in Spain further supports the indication that new weapons will continue to be employed by both sides. In the near future, Ukraine is planning to receive six of these air-defense systems, and they have recently acquired the latest Akeron MP ATGMs from France. Furthermore, Ukraine has also acquired the Czech Striga MLRS 122mm multiple-launch rocket systems, which are already being used on the front line. In addition, certain artillery units have been equipped with the heavier Czech RM-70 Vampire. This system is mounted on a four-axle chassis and features an automatic loading system and additional portable ammunition. In this regard, it is worth noting that Rheinmetall recently received an order from the German government for 100, 000 shells for 120-mm mortars. These shells will be provided to Ukraine as part of a recent €400 million military aid package. Nevertheless, Ukraine is actively increasing its domestic production of various types of weapons and ammunition to reduce its future dependence on partners and enhance its effectiveness. This can be confirmed by the successful destruction of the cutting-edge Russian S-300V4 air defense system by the Ukrainians on November 9th. Furthermore, it is worth mentioning that Global Clearance Solutions recently inaugurated a service center in Kyiv for unmanned Swiss demining machines. This center will offer maintenance and repair support for specialists working with GCS-200 and GCS-100 demining machines. These machines are already in operation in Ukraine, being utilized by various organizations including the State Emergency Service and Nibulon Agricultural Holding. Considering that the Russians are extensively mining the battlefield in various locations, effectively slowing down the advancement of Ukrainian troops, it is important to point out that a single GCS-200 can clear an area the size of a football field of explosive ordnance in just one day.
Air Raid Frequency Updates
In the field, having accurate and up-to-date information about air raid alerts is crucial for the safety and efficiency of personnel. Understanding the frequency, duration, and location of these alerts provides valuable insight that can significantly impact decision-making on the ground. Armed with this knowledge, personnel can plan their movements more strategically, avoiding high-risk areas during times of increased alert activity. With the help of this vital information, they can ensure safer operations while maximizing their resources effectively.
By analyzing the available information from November 6 to November 12, several key points can be observed:
● In contrast to the previous period, when the highest peak of Air Raid Alerts occurred at noon, the past week has shown a different pattern. The peaks were registered at 10 AM, noon, between 2 and 3 PM, with smaller peaks at 8 PM and 11 PM.
● Moreover, it is worth mentioning that the majority of Air Raid Alerts typically lasted between 30 minutes to 1 hour (119 times) or less than 30 minutes (102 times). It was rare to encounter Air Raid Alerts that lasted between 2. 5 and 3 hours, which only occurred 9 times.
● Furthermore, it is worth noting a shift in the pattern of eventful days for Air Raid Alerts compared to the previous period. In the past, Tuesday had the highest frequency of Air Raid Alerts, closely followed by Thursday. However, recent data from the past week reveals a noticeable change. Friday has now emerged as the most eventful day, with 69 occurrences, followed by Wednesday and Saturday with 65 and 61 occurrences, respectively. On the other hand, Thursday now has the lowest frequency, with only 34 reported Air Raid Alerts.
● Finally, it was discovered that Kherson had the highest concentration of Air Raid Alerts, with a significant total of 44 incidents. In contrast, the Volyn region experienced a minimal number of Air Raid Alerts, with only 4 recorded occurrences.
Analysis of Conflict Development
Recent updates in the Ukraine conflict suggest potential shifts in tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTP), which could have far-reaching implications for the conflict's trajectory in the near future. Reports indicate a notable increase in hybrid warfare tactics, including cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns targeting both military and civilian infrastructure. This suggests an evolving strategy to undermine Ukraine's stability beyond traditional battlefield engagements.
Leadership changes have also emerged as a significant development. New announcements indicate a reshuffling of top military personnel, potentially signifying adjustments in strategic direction. Such changes may lead to alterations in operational tactics and coordination among different units. Furthermore, the influx of foreign fighters, equipment, and military advisors on both sides has the potential to introduce novel combat techniques, potentially escalating the conflict's intensity.
In terms of equipment and infrastructure developments, recent reports suggest the deployment of advanced weapon systems, including long-range artillery and anti-ship missiles, which could alter the dynamics of engagements and complicate defensive strategies. Additionally, developments in electronic warfare capabilities have the potential to disrupt communication and surveillance systems, further shaping the battlespace.
In the coming weeks and months, the conflict's course could be influenced by these developments. A mix of traditional and hybrid tactics might lead to an increasingly complex battlefield, with information warfare playing a more prominent role. Leadership changes could either introduce more aggressive approaches or open doors to diplomatic solutions. As both sides incorporate advanced weaponry and tactics, the potential for more intense and unpredictable confrontations could reshape the conflict's trajectory.
SecurityACCESS Ukraine
Leveraging our extensive experience in Ukraine, Riley Risk has established the SecurityACCESS service, strengthening our local presence in Ukraine with our seasoned Risk Advisory team. This service amalgamates a range of critical solutions, meticulously designed to provide significant value to our clientele, ensuring their operations are secure, streamlined, and resilient in Ukraine's unique landscape. This strategic enhancement embodies our dedication to satisfying the growing demands posed by our clients' complex operational environment, in Ukraine and other global locations.
Riley Risk's SecurityACCESS service provides clients with access to a dedicated in-country security manager for full-time or part-time needs. Guided by our seasoned country security manager and support team based in Ukraine, we oversee comprehensive security management, provide localized safety training, generate detailed security analysis and reports, and conduct on-site venue assessments to devise effective risk mitigation strategies. Whatever the task, clients can trust that our tailored approach ensures security needs are met in alignment with their specific operational context.
Ukraine Core Capabilities
Our in-country services have evolved to meet organizational requirements with operational exposure in Ukraine, encompassing a broad spectrum of security support and risk management.
Here is a brief breakdown of our core offerings:
Ukraine Operational Presence and Expertise: Riley Risk maintains a dedicated full-time operations center in Kyiv, Ukraine, supplemented by the capacity to mobilize additional local experts throughout the country as needed. Our longstanding experience and expansive network in Ukraine reflect our commitment to providing tailored, premier risk management solutions. This operational presence ensures prompt and specialized responses to the complex dynamics of the region.
Travel Risk Management Support: Our approach is tailored to the unique risks of travel in designated regions, including High and Extreme risk locations. We offer policy guidance and protocols for both expatriates and national staff operating in Ukraine. Our services include planning, management, and monitoring for all travel, aligned with client-specific operational needs. This covers the creation of customized Journey Management Plans, location assessments, traveler briefings, and en-route tracking to ensure personnel safety.
Security Reporting and Alerts: We offer 24/7 surveillance, alerting, and incident response, complemented by twice-daily and real-time reporting tailored to the assigned personnel and risk context. Utilizing multiple vetted information sources, our in-country operations team validates threat data to deliver a robust monitoring solution for asset protection and risk mitigation.
In-Country Security Advisory Support: Our services include comprehensive venue security assessments and close protection for travelers. Additionally, we offer crisis management consultation, intelligence analysis, cyber threat assessments, and staff training on security protocols. These functions are designed to mitigate risk and ensure operational integrity for both expatriate and national personnel.
Additional Specialized Services Support: We provide an array of adaptable support services in Ukraine, ranging from deploying security-trained drivers in both armored and lower-profile non-armored vehicles, based on conducted risk and operational assessments. Our offerings also include communications support, Technical Surveillance Countermeasures (TSCM), and other pertinent risk advisory services.
To explore how our SecurityACCESS service can offer tailored, often cost-effective support, contact the Riley Risk Team here to set up an engagement call today.