Publish Date: 25NOV2023
Security & Geopolitical Analyst: MF
Contributing Authors: CT, MSO, ML, VV
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Summary
Over the past 7 days, a series of significant events have taken place that are directly or indirectly linked to the ongoing Ukrainian conflict. These developments have captured the attention of both regional and global audiences:
Putin stated that Russia has never abandoned peace negotiations with Ukraine
Finland has closed all but one of its borders with Russia
The truck traffic on the border between Slovakia and Ukraine has been temporarily unblocked
Polish truckers have expanded the blockade at the Ukraine border, with farmers joining in
The new air defense coalition for Ukraine has gained the support of 20 countries
On November 21, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced that reactor unit 5 of ZNPP (Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant) has begun transitioning from hot to cold shutdown
Ukrainian pilots are already flying F-16s in Denmark
In the span of two years, one hundred thousand Ukrainian soldiers have received training in the armed forces of Western countries
An SBU sniper has claimed a world record after successfully hitting a target from a distance of 3. 8 km
Russia is planning to construct an underwater tunnel between Crimea and Russia, with the assistance of China
Three Greek companies have ceased transporting Russian oil due to pressure from the United States
Amid allegations of 'criminal negligence', 500 tons of concealed humanitarian aid were discovered in Zaporizhzhia Oblast
In the Mykolaiv Oblast, an ex-policeman was caught spying on the Defense Forces and the SBU
The SBU has successfully eliminated a channel for the illegal sale of weapons and ammunition in the front-line territory of the Donetsk region
Over 5, 000 female soldiers are serving in the war zone in Ukraine
According to the UN, one in every five families in Ukraine is currently facing food shortages because of the Russian invasion
The Verkhovna Rada, the Ukrainian parliament, is currently considering amendments to its law on mobilization
Two giant malls with shelters will be built in the Kyiv region
The US has announced a $100 million military aid package for Ukraine
Lithuania is strengthening its support for Ukraine by providing a new batch of ammunition
Germany has recently extended its support to Ukraine by providing a new military aid package worth €1. 3 billion
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has issued a threat to block all EU aid for Ukraine, potentially hindering the country's ambitions to join the bloc
The EU has approved 900 million euros in funds for Hungary
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico described Russia's aggression against Ukraine as a "frozen conflict"
According to BILD, both the USA and Germany are seeking to compel Zelensky to engage in negotiations with Russia
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced that Canada will be transferring over 9 million rounds of ammunition and 11, 000 assault rifles to Ukraine
On November 24, the Prime Minister of Lithuania, Ingrid Šimonite, visited Ukraine
Zelensky has approved new sanctions against 300 Russian companies and 87 individuals from both the Russian Federation and Ukraine
Threat Mapping Updates
Mapping Analysis
After months of unsuccessful counter-offensives, the Ukrainian army has achieved a significant breakthrough by successfully crossing to the left bank of the Dnipro River. Furthermore, this week they have managed to push back the Russian troops. According to Natalia Gumeniuk, spokesperson for the Ukrainian army, preliminary figures suggest a territorial gain ranging from 3 to 8 kilometers. The extent of the gain varies depending on the geographical and topographical features of the left bank. However, some analysts believe that the territory currently under the control of Ukrainian troops is relatively small, which could pose challenges in transforming it into a significant breakthrough. On the other hand, other analysts argue that this offensive by the Ukrainian army against the Russians is one of the most significant in several months. Before this, the Ukrainians had only managed to recapture a few villages in the south and east during their counter-offensive. The last significant success before that was the recapture of the village of Robotyne in August, in the southern region of Zaporizhia. According to the Ukrainian General Staff, the troops are currently holding their positions on the left bank and engaging in counter-battery fire in the Kershon area, targeting enemy positions behind their lines. In this regard, it is worth mentioning that they successfully destroyed Russia's $15 million drone killer defense system near the village of Chaplynka in the same region. It should be noted that this system was located far behind the current front lines in Kershon. According to a Russian milblogger's report, Ukrainian units are currently attempting to establish control in the western part of Krynky. They have also launched attacks towards Poyma and Pishchanivka, with the objective of reaching the M-14 highway. This is important due to the fact that this road connects all major cities in southern Ukraine, from Odesa in the west to Mariupol in the east. The road runs through Kherson and continues to Melitopol, before following the coastline of the Sea of Azov to the Russian border. Currently, the Ukrainian forces are less than 3 miles away from the highway. In addition, Ukrainian troops are not only maintaining the initiative in southern Ukraine but also defending against a formidable group of Russian forces near Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast. Reports indicate that on November 22nd alone, the Russians lost 80 percent of their total equipment in the vicinity of Avdiivka. Ukrainians are also facing heavy attacks on the Tavriia front, where the Russians have dramatically increased the number of assaults and airstrikes. Furthermore, Ukrainian forces persistently continue to launch drone and missile attacks not only on Crimea but also deep inside Russian territory, with reports of attacks reaching as far as Moscow.
On the other hand, Moscow officials claim that Russian troops have successfully repelled Ukraine's attempts to reach the occupied eastern bank of the southern Kherson region. They also allege that Kyiv's army has suffered significant losses. Additionally, officials claim that all attempts by Kyiv to carry out drone attacks on Russian Federation installations have been foiled. In this regard, on November 22nd, it was also mentioned that Russia destroyed all naval drones belonging to the Navy of Ukraine. These drones were reportedly moving towards Crimea in the western part of the Black Sea. Moreover, they have even managed to capture one of the Ukrainian drone boats, MAGURA V5, in western Crimea. If this information proves to be true, it could provide the Russians with limited but valuable insights. This could help them reverse engineer their own designs and also enable them to counter these USVs more efficiently. Meanwhile, Russian forces have continued to apply pressure along the entire front line, particularly near Kupyansk, Bakhmut, Maryinka, Krynkiv, and Avdiivka. According to the Ukrainian troops, the Russians are launching attacks on Avdiivka from multiple directions. Furthermore, there has been a noticeable increase in drone attacks on Kyiv and other locations, with multiple consecutive attacks reported in the past week. Of particular significance is the fact that on November 25, the Russians executed their largest drone attack on Kyiv since the beginning of the war. According to many analysts, Russia is reportedly placing a higher emphasis on drone training as a result of limited supplies of missiles and military equipment in the ongoing conflict with Ukraine. While there have been signs of a notable decrease in Russia's missile usage in Ukraine in recent months, there are also suggestions that the country may be accumulating a substantial stockpile of these weapons for a potential winter offensive. In fact, multiple reports indicate that Russia has stockpiled over 800 missiles and munitions with the specific intention of targeting power infrastructure. The assessment suggests that as temperatures drop further, they will attempt to overwhelm air defenses by launching multiple waves of various munitions, including missiles and UAVs, to strike their intended targets. This information has been confirmed by the UK Ministry of Defence, which has observed that Russia has amassed significant stockpiles of cruise missiles in preparation for the winter season. According to claims, one of Russia's objectives is likely to be the weakening of Ukraine's air defenses. This strategic move aims to shape the battlefield before launching a coordinated winter campaign that specifically targets Ukraine's energy sector.
Priority Updates
Finland has closed all but one of its borders with Russia
Finland has made the decision to close three out of the last four remaining border crossings with Russia. The Finnish Prime Minister, on Wednesday, November 22, expressed suspicions that Moscow is orchestrating a migration crisis. In response, border guards and soldiers have already started erecting barriers, including concrete obstacles topped with barbed wire, at crossing points along the long border between the Nordic country and Russia. This measure aims to enhance control over the flow of undocumented migrants, according to officials. In this regard, it should be noted that in November, around 600 migrants without proper visas and documentation, mostly from the Middle East and Africa, arrived in Finland. This is a significant increase compared to just a few dozen arrivals in September and October. The migrants come from various countries, including Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Kenya, Morocco, and Somalia, as reported by border officials. The Kremlin has expressed regret over Finland's decision to close the checkpoints and has rejected the claims made by Finnish authorities that Russia encouraged the influx of migrants at the border as a way to punish Finland for joining NATO.
The truck traffic on the border between Slovakia and Ukraine has been temporarily unblocked
Truck traffic on the border between Slovakia and Ukraine has been temporarily unblocked. However, as reported by the State Border Guard Service, approximately 350 trucks were waiting in line at the Vyšné Nemecké checkpoint on the morning of November 22nd to enter Ukraine. It was also mentioned that the remaining traffic is being processed as usual for both entry and exit.
Polish truckers have expanded the blockade at the Ukraine border, with farmers joining in
Polish transport companies expanded their protests against what they perceive as unfair competition from Ukrainian truckers on 22 November. In addition to the blockade that began earlier this month at three major border crossing points with Ukraine, they have now extended their protest to the Medyka crossing in southern Poland. Talks between Warsaw and Kyiv have failed to yield a solution. In Medyka, the protesting truckers were joined by local farmers who claim that Ukrainian imports have depressed grain prices. The farmers have demanded subsidies and preferential loans to support their businesses. They have announced plans to block the Medyka crossing for several hours a day before implementing a full-scale blockade starting on Monday. However, the organizers have clarified that passenger traffic, as well as humanitarian and military aid, will still be allowed to pass through.
The new air defense coalition for Ukraine has gained the support of 20 countries
Ukraine's Defense Minister, Rustem Umierov, has reported that 20 countries have joined the alliance, with Germany and France leading the way. Furthermore, the United Kingdom and Norway will be exploring ways to enhance security in the Black Sea as part of the Maritime Coalition.
On November 21, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced that reactor unit 5 of ZNPP (Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant) has begun transitioning from hot to cold shutdown
On November 21, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced that reactor unit 5 of ZNPP (Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant) has begun transitioning from hot to cold shutdown. ZNPP has kept reactor units 4 and 5 on hot shutdown to supply residual power to the plant's site and the town of Enerhodar in Zaporizhzhia oblast. The decision to implement a cold shutdown was made to investigate the cause of boron water leakage from the first circuit of the unit, which was reported on November 19. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has provided an explanation that a cold shutdown is a safe condition for a nuclear reactor. In this state, the reactor is deactivated and has low water pressure and temperature. According to the IAEA statement, one of the three 17. 4-megawatt diesel boilers located off-site have been operational since 17 November and will provide heating to Enerhodar.
Ukrainian pilots are already flying F-16s in Denmark
Some Ukrainian pilots are currently undergoing flight training on F-16 fighter jets in Denmark, as reported by Yurii Ihnat, Spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force. These training flights are conducted with instructors and take place on two-seater aircraft. According to Ihnat, prior to transitioning to the F-16 cockpit, Ukrainian pilots gained experience flying light-engine aircraft, which facilitated their transition to the new fighter jet. Ukrainian pilots are trained not only in Denmark but also in the United States and Britain.
In the span of two years, one hundred thousand Ukrainian soldiers have received training in the armed forces of Western countries
The head of the financial committee of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine reported that in less than two years, one hundred thousand soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been trained in Western countries. He mentioned that this coalition is comprised of 32 countries, which are united in two military missions: the Security Support Group of Ukraine and the EU Mission for providing military assistance to Ukraine. In this regard, it should be mentioned that North Macedonia has also completed the training of the first group of Ukrainian soldiers. This process was kept confidential until now for security reasons, as reported by Balkan Insight on November 22, citing the country's Defense Minister Slavjanka Petrovska. According to Petrovska, the Balkan country will continue its training efforts until 2024 and beyond, as long as there is a need for it. In a comment to the national broadcaster Macedonian Television on November 22, she mentioned that the training took place in facilities owned by the North Macedonian military. However, she did not specify the type of training or the number of Ukrainian soldiers who participated in it.
An SBU sniper has claimed a world record after successfully hitting a target from a distance of 3. 8 km
On November 18, local media reported that a sniper from Ukraine's security service (SBU) set a new record by hitting a Russian soldier at a distance of 3. 8 kilometers. This surpasses the previous world record of 3, 540 meters. The accomplished achievement highlights the growing capabilities of Ukrainian sniper units and their use of advanced weaponry. The SBU special agent made the shot using a domestically produced Ukrainian rifle known as Volodar Obriyu, or "Lord of the Horizon."
Russia is planning to construct an underwater tunnel between Crimea and Russia, with the assistance of China
According to The Washington Post's report on 24 November, Russian and Chinese business executives with alleged connections to their respective governments have been engaging in covert discussions. Their objective is to construct an underwater tunnel that would connect de jure Russian territory to annexed Crimea. These talks were prompted by growing Russian concerns regarding the security of the Kerch Strait bridge. The bridge currently serves as a crucial logistics route for the Russian military and for travel to and from the occupied peninsula. However, it remains vulnerable to potential Ukrainian attacks. In an email dated October 4th, the Chinese Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC) is described as being prepared to undertake railway and road construction projects of "any complexity" in the Crimean Peninsula. Although the veracity of the report cannot be confirmed, it strongly suggests Moscow's ongoing efforts to retain long-term control over Crimea, despite Kyiv's determination to regain the territory. Considering the engineering complexity involved, it is highly unlikely that the project would be completed in the near future if it were to proceed. If completed, the tunnel would likely be vulnerable to sabotage attacks by Ukraine or pro-Ukraine partisans. However, it is important to note that the West is likely to impose secondary sanctions on Chinese entities involved in the project. This could act as a deterrent to substantial Chinese participation.
Three Greek companies have ceased transporting Russian oil due to pressure from the United States
Three major Greek shipping companies have made the decision to completely halt the transportation of Russian oil in order to evade the US sanctions that have been imposed. Minerva Marine, Thenamaris, and TMS Tankers, which have been involved in transporting Russian oil for decades, have now ceased moving Russian oil from Europe to other continents. While many other Western companies withdrew from such operations to mitigate the escalating risks of sanctions, these Greek shippers continued until October, actively shipping Russian crude oil and oil products. Since then, their involvement has been gradually scaled down, as indicated by shipping data. The three companies operate over 100 oil tankers with the capacity to transport nearly all the exports from Russia's European ports of Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossiisk. This amounts to approximately 10 million tons of oil per month or 2. 4 million barrels per day.
Amid allegations of 'criminal negligence', 500 tons of concealed humanitarian aid were discovered in Zaporizhzhia Oblast
During a news conference on November 24, the Regional Governor revealed that nearly 500 tons of humanitarian aid, which had been concealed from the Ukrainian public, were uncovered in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Governor Yurii Malashko stated that tons of food products sent to the region in 2022 had deteriorated due to criminal negligence. Authorities discovered a substantial amount of humanitarian aid, including food products, essential items, and other materials, stored without proper documentation at three different local enterprises in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. According to Malashko, investigations into the illegal storage of aid are still ongoing. In recent months, Ukraine's Defense Ministry has been plagued by multiple scandals related to the procurement of equipment and supplies for Ukrainian soldiers, which occurred under the leadership of former Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov. Continued struggles with internal corruption have a significant impact on the levels of military and financial support received from international allies.
In the Mykolaiv Oblast, an ex-policeman was caught spying on the Defense Forces and the SBU
According to the investigation, the Russian informant is a resident of Mykolaiv. From 2016 to 2020, he resided in the temporarily occupied Crimea and frequently traveled to the Russian Federation, where he collaborated with the Russian special service. When the full-scale invasion began, he was instructed to return to mainland Ukraine and join one of the units of the National Police. While in office, he not only spied for the Russians but also engaged in subversive activities against Ukraine. It has been established that a Russian agent provided false information to the Ukrainian defenders regarding the movement routes of enemy military equipment.
The SBU has successfully eliminated a channel for the illegal sale of weapons and ammunition in the front-line territory of the Donetsk region
The two defendants were involved in an operation to sell a collection of "trophy" weapons obtained by Ukrainian defenders during the battles near Bakhmut. According to the SBU, the attackers were apprehended with over 60 assault rifles, machine guns, and Russian-made anti-tank grenade launchers. Their intention was to sell this batch of military weapons to representatives of the Dnipropetrovsk criminal organization. Thanks to comprehensive measures, the SBU officers successfully apprehended both suspects while they were attempting to sell 7 Kalashnikov assault rifles, including the new AK-12. The investigation revealed that the detainees were two contractors from a military unit of the Defense Forces who had been deployed to the Donetsk region.
Over 5, 000 female soldiers are serving in the war zone in Ukraine
The number of women serving in the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) has significantly increased since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. As of October 2023, there are over 62, 000 women who are part of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, accounting for 7.3% of the total number of Ukrainian forces, according to the Military Media Centre. In total, 43, 479 women serve in the military, making up 5. 3% of the overall military personnel.
According to the UN, one in every five families in Ukraine is currently facing food shortages because of the Russian invasion
Ukraine, once a major food supplier feeding 400 million people worldwide annually, is now grappling with a food problem. In approximately 80% of settlements near the front line, people are facing obstacles in accessing food. Matthew Hollingsworth, a representative of the World Food Programme (WFP) in Ukraine, highlighted this issue during a meeting of the UN Security Council. He stated that approximately one in five Ukrainian families are currently experiencing varying degrees of acute food shortage, especially in the vicinity of the war zone. According to him, over 900, 000 people who are still living within 30 km of the frontline are facing the most acute food needs, which worsen during winter.
The Verkhovna Rada, the Ukrainian parliament, is currently considering amendments to its law on mobilization
The Verkhovna Rada, the Ukrainian parliament, is currently reviewing amendments to its law on mobilization. These amendments aim to address the loopholes that allow draft-eligible men to avoid being mobilized. The proposed changes include eliminating the deferral of mobilization for students pursuing a second degree and tightening the exemptions for individuals who are responsible for caring for a disabled family member. Furthermore, the proposed changes reportedly authorize the enrollment of individuals who have completed their military service in another country before becoming Ukrainian citizens. It is also alleged that individuals who have been convicted of a criminal offense and are currently in prison will be eligible for military service. Although no formal proposal has been submitted, these amendments indicate Kyiv's growing requirement for military personnel to sustain the ongoing war against Russia.
Two giant malls with shelters will be built in the Kyiv region
Two new locations are set to be established in Bucha - the Bucha Gallery shopping center at 1 Nona Street, Nove Shose, and in Chabany - the Green Gallery Shopping Center at 8 Odeska Shose. The official opening of these locations is scheduled for 2024.
Political Developments
The US has announced a $100 million military aid package for Ukraine
On November 20, the U. S. Defense Department announced that U. S. President Joe Biden has approved a new military aid package for Ukraine, valued at up to $100 million. This comprehensive package consists of various equipment and supplies that will enhance Ukraine's defense capabilities. Included in the package are Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, a High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), and additional ammunition such as 155-mm and 105-mm artillery shells. Furthermore, it encompasses Javelin and AT-4 anti-tank systems, as well as over 3 million rounds of small arms ammunition. In addition to the weaponry, the aid package also includes cold weather gear, spare parts, and demolition munitions that will facilitate obstacle clearance. This comprehensive support aims to bolster Ukraine's military preparedness and strengthen its defense capabilities.
Lithuania is strengthening its support for Ukraine by providing a new batch of ammunition
Lithuania recently provided a significant shipment of military aid to Ukraine, bolstering its defense capabilities against Russian aggression. The Lithuanian Ministry of Defence confirmed that on November 22, the Lithuanian Armed Forces transported and delivered 3 million units of 7. 62×51 mm ammunition, remote detonation systems, and specialized winter equipment to the Ukrainian military. Lithuanian Defence Minister, Arvydas Anušauskas, emphasized the nation's unwavering commitment to Ukraine. He highlighted that the aid packages have been thoughtfully composed to address Ukraine's most urgent needs and priorities. The provision of ammunition, remote detonation systems, and winter equipment serves as a tangible reinforcement of Ukraine's resilience in the face of Russian hostility.
Germany has recently extended its support to Ukraine by providing a new military aid package worth €1. 3 billion
Defense Minister Boris Pistorius presented an aid package to Rustem Umierov in Kyiv following their talks. The comprehensive package consists of four IRIS T-SLM air defense systems, 20, 000 rounds of artillery ammunition, and anti-tank mines. Pistorius emphasized that this allocation demonstrates Germany's unwavering commitment and reliability to Ukraine. It was previously announced that Germany intends to deliver two additional IRIS-T air defense systems to Ukraine by year-end. German diplomat Martin Jäger, the German Ambassador to Ukraine, made this announcement. He emphasized that currently, three IRIS-T systems are deployed in Ukraine, with plans to deploy five more by the end of this year.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has issued a threat to block all EU aid for Ukraine, potentially hindering the country's ambitions to join the bloc
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has issued a threat to block all EU aid for Ukraine and hinder the country's ambitions to join the bloc. This ultimatum is contingent upon EU leaders agreeing to review their strategy of support for Ukraine. If this threat holds true, it highlights the likelihood of Budapest persisting in driving internal divisions over the bloc's policy towards Kyiv in the long term. Orban also emphasized that any additional sanctions against Russia should be put on hold until a 'strategic discussion' takes place during the leaders' meeting in Brussels on 14-15 December. According to Orban, the European bloc needs to carefully assess the sustainability of its strategy without strong support from the US, which has been the primary provider of military aid to Ukraine.
The EU has approved 900 million euros in funds for Hungary
On 23 November, the European Commission (EC) approved the release of EUR 900 million in advance funding to Hungary under the bloc's REPowerEU energy transition and recovery plan. This release is notable due to the freeze on Budapest's recovery funds, which has been imposed because of ongoing disputes over corruption and the rule of law. The timing is noteworthy, as Hungary has recently threatened to block further EU aid to Ukraine, potentially undermining its EU accession bid. Therefore, this move is likely aimed at partially influencing Budapest's stance on providing additional assistance to Kyiv and initiating accession talks for Ukraine to join the bloc. However, it remains uncertain if this funding alone will be enough to sway Hungary's position.
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico described Russia's aggression against Ukraine as a "frozen conflict"
During his visit to Prague, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico referred to Russia's aggression against Ukraine as a "frozen conflict." He also reiterated his stance against the supply of weapons to Ukraine and expressed support for negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow. At the same time, Fico emphasized that Slovakia's position on values remains unchanged, stating, "We have no disputes about values. We have made it very clear that the use of Russian military force is a violation of international law."
According to BILD, both the USA and Germany are seeking to compel Zelensky to engage in negotiations with Russia
According to military observer Julian Röpke, who refers to information from German government circles, Ukraine's Western allies aim to strategically position the country for negotiations. The goal is to engage in discussions with Putin's regime regarding Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. According to Röpke, U. S. and German leaders have no intention of directly persuading Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to negotiate. Instead, both countries, being the largest arms suppliers to Ukraine, have opted for a different strategy. As the expert explains, Germany and the United States plan to provide Kyiv with the specific weapons and quantities necessary for the Ukrainian army to maintain the current front line, rather than to reclaim the Russian-occupied territories. "Zelensky must realize that this cannot go on. Without any request from the outside. He must address his people of his own free will and explain that negotiations are necessary," a German government source told Bild. According to the source, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius opposes such tactics and supports the supply of weapons, but "his hands are tied."
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced that Canada will be transferring over 9 million rounds of ammunition and 11, 000 assault rifles to Ukraine
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made this announcement during a joint briefing with senior EU officials. Trudeau stressed the ongoing aggression by Russia against Ukraine and the need for support to help Ukraine defend itself. While it remains unclear which specific rifles the Canadian government has chosen to transfer to Ukraine, it can be assumed that they are local versions of the Colt M16 or Colt M16 known as Diemaco C7 and Diemaco C8, respectively. These rifles have been in use by the Defense Forces of Ukraine since around mid-spring 2022, with their usage becoming more widespread during the summer and fall.
On November 24, the Prime Minister of Lithuania, Ingrid Šimonite, visited Ukraine
She honored the memory of the fallen defenders. The head of the Lithuanian government emphasized that the only way to establish lasting and just peace is to assist Ukraine in winning as quickly as possible, restoring full territorial integrity, and promoting international justice. Prime Minister Ingrid Šimonite announced that Lithuania plans to approve a three-year plan for military and other aid to Ukraine. This comprehensive plan will cover various areas, including treatment and rehabilitation, military training, humanitarian assistance, military demining, and repair of military equipment.
Zelensky has approved new sanctions against 300 Russian companies and 87 individuals from both the Russian Federation and Ukraine
Among the sanctioned enterprises are several companies from the UAE, the Russian Federation, Uzbekistan, Cyprus, Turkey, China, and Malta. As per the two decrees, assets are blocked, trade transactions are restricted, and the withdrawal of capital from Ukraine is prevented.
Analysis of Priority & Political Updates
The global show of support for Ukraine has significant political ramifications on both regional and international levels. The backing from various nations underscores the complexity of the conflict and its implications for global security dynamics. As countries vocally condemn Russia's actions and express solidarity with Ukraine, diplomatic tensions rise, potentially leading to shifts in alliances and geopolitical strategies.
The United States and its NATO allies have been particularly vocal in their support for Ukraine, signaling a unified stance against Russian aggression and a commitment to upholding international norms and territorial integrity. This collective stance amplifies diplomatic pressure on Russia, potentially leading to sanctions and other punitive measures.
Furthermore, the global support for Ukraine underscores the importance of international law and norms in addressing conflicts and maintaining a rules-based international order. It serves as a reminder that actions violating sovereignty and territorial integrity are met with widespread condemnation and potential consequences, thus influencing the calculus of nations engaged in such activities.
The political impact of global support for Ukraine extends beyond the immediate conflict, potentially affecting broader diplomatic relations and regional stability. The unity of nations in support of Ukraine could embolden other nations to rally against aggression and assert their interests through international cooperation. However, it also raises the stakes of the conflict, increasing the potential for escalation and necessitating careful diplomatic navigation to prevent a wider crisis.
Conflict Zone Updates
According to the latest update from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Ukrainian and Russian troops are currently engaged in ongoing battle operations in eastern and southern Ukraine. However, it is worth noting that the rainy weather is expected to slow down the pace of combat operations until winter conditions fully set in. For example, reports from Russian military bloggers indicate that the severe weather conditions in the western Zaporizhzhia Oblast are presenting challenges for the deployment of armored vehicles. However, despite this obstacle, Ukrainian forces persist in launching attacks on Russian positions using infantry units. Meanwhile, the Russians continue to exert pressure both on the ground and from the air. Moreover, drone attacks, which have become a prominent aspect of the conflict, have escalated in the past week, with both sides making significant advancements in this area.
For instance, it is worth mentioning that Ukrainian troops have recently deployed 2, 000 domestically manufactured drones to the most critical areas of the front. In addition, they have also been equipped with multiple Titan Falcon 3D printable long-range drones. This upgrade was made possible through the aid provided by an American-Ukrainian NGO and Germany's Donaustahl GmbH. The main specifications of this drone include a flight endurance of up to 6 hours and an operational range of up to 400 kilometers. Additionally, on November 20th, the Digital Transformation Minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, announced that Ukraine has unveiled its latest drone technology, known as the Backfire. These drones have the capability to fly up to 35 kilometers behind enemy lines and are resistant to Russia's electronic jamming. Fedorov stated that these UAVs are equipped with a powerful GPS antenna, making them almost impossible to jam, and offering virtual resistance to location and coordinate tracking. After successfully completing over 50 missions in recent months, plans are underway to mass-produce these drones. Earlier this week, Ukraine also revealed a parallel development initiative aimed at achieving air superiority and advancing drone technology. They introduced a long-range attack drone called the Beaver, capable of flying up to 800 kilometers. During the first eight months of 2023, the Beaver and other UAVs in Ukraine's arsenal have inflicted over $900 million in damages to Russian forces. These strikes have targeted locations in Crimea, other parts of occupied Ukraine, as well as Russia itself. Other innovations are also underway, focusing not only on increasing drone capabilities but also on developing countermeasures. As the deputy head of President Zelensky's office says, Kyiv is currently increasing the number of mobile groups to effectively counter the wave of Russian drone attacks.
However, it is important to note that there is an ongoing technological evolution on both sides. Recent reports confirm that Russians are already developing new types of drones and other offensive capabilities, as well as countermeasures against the electronic warfare systems and loitering munitions used by Ukraine. For instance, it has been reported that Russian forces have recently begun deploying a new version of the Lancet kamikaze drone, referred to as the Izdeliye-53 or Z-53. This upgraded version stands out due to its automatic guidance system, which has the ability to autonomously identify and differentiate between various targets. This advanced feature has the potential to greatly enhance the accuracy and success rates of strikes, representing a significant advancement compared to earlier models. Although the full capabilities of the drone are not yet publicly known, the reported ability to autonomously identify targets indicates a high level of technological sophistication.
In addition to new drones, Russia is also introducing new bomb and missile capabilities. For instance, last week, Russian aviation used the FAB-1500 "smart" glide bombs, weighing one-and-a-half tons, for the first time to destroy bridges in Ukraine. Analysts believe that these types of bombs could be used more frequently in the coming period and even increase in capacity. Additionally, Russia is considering replacing certain missiles in its current arsenal. Namely, Russia is persistently launching short-range Iskander ballistic missiles at Ukrainian targets. However, the state arms manufacturer Rostec has now recognized the Tornado-S multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) as a cost-effective and ideal option for efficiently destroying low-value targets. Bekhan Ozdoyev, the Industrial Director of the Rostec complex of conventional weapons, munitions, and special chemical compounds, recently announced that the Tornado-S multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) can now be utilized to destroy targets with an extended range. This development is significant as it allows for the effective elimination of targets where the use of Iskander tactical missiles would be deemed excessive. He emphasized that the Tornado-S MLRS is capable of targeting both large areas and individual targets with its high-precision munitions. He assured that the development of these systems will continue and highlighted that the Tornado-S is now classified closer to the tactical missile system category due to the improved range of the new guided rocket-propelled bombs, which can reach distances of 90 to 120 kilometers. Additionally, he mentioned that the Tornado-S boasts exceptional accuracy, and its warhead possesses sufficient power to successfully hit even heavily fortified facilities.
However, it should be noted that in addition to employing new technological solutions, Russians are also engaging in increased counterintelligence activity. Specifically, according to the National Resistance Center's report on November 20, Russian-installed proxies in the occupied areas of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts are creating informant networks by recruiting unemployed residents. According to the Center, once recruited, the collaborators provide information about local residents who hold pro-Ukrainian views to the occupying authorities. They also share information about individuals with ties to the Ukrainian military. In July 2023, the Center reported a growing unemployment rate in Ukraine's Russian-occupied territories, specifically in Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Luhansk, and Donetsk oblasts.
Air Raid Frequency Updates
In the field, having accurate and up-to-date information about air raid alerts is crucial for the safety and efficiency of personnel. Understanding the frequency, duration, and location of these alerts provides valuable insight that can significantly impact decision-making on the ground. Armed with this knowledge, personnel can plan their movements more strategically, avoiding high-risk areas during times of increased alert activity. With the help of this vital information, they can ensure safer operations while maximizing their resources effectively.
By analyzing the available information from November 20 to November 25, several key points can be observed:
● In contrast to the previous period, where the highest peaks of Air Raid Alerts occurred at noon, with a smaller peak at 2 PM, the past week has shown a different pattern. Multiple peaks were occurring at midnight, noon, and 7 PM, with the highest peaks at 9 PM and 11 PM.
● Moreover, it is worth mentioning that the majority of Air Raid Alerts typically lasted between 30 minutes to 1 hour (99 occurrences) or less than 30 minutes (67 occurrences). It was rare to encounter Air Raid Alerts that lasted between 2. 5 and 3 hours, which only occurred 5 times.
● Furthermore, it is worth noting a slight shift in the pattern of eventful days for Air Raid Alerts compared to the previous period. In the past, Tuesday had the highest frequency of Air Raid Alerts, closely followed by Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday. However, recent data from the past week reveals a noticeable change. Saturday has now emerged as the most eventful day, with 50 occurrences, followed by Tuesday and Friday, with 45 and 43 occurrences, respectively. On the other hand, Sunday remained the day with the lowest frequency, with only 23 reported Air Raid Alerts.
● Finally, it was discovered that the Donetsk region had the highest concentration of Air Raid Alerts, with 32 incidents. In contrast, the Ivano-Frankivsk region experienced a minimal number of Air Raid Alerts, with only 1 recorded occurrence.
Analysis of Conflict Development
Recent updates in the Ukraine conflict suggest potential shifts in tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTP), which could have far-reaching implications for the conflict's trajectory in the near future. Reports indicate a notable increase in hybrid warfare tactics, including cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns targeting both military and civilian infrastructure. This suggests an evolving strategy to undermine Ukraine's stability beyond traditional battlefield engagements.
Leadership changes have also emerged as a significant development. New announcements indicate a reshuffling of top military personnel, potentially signifying adjustments in strategic direction. Such changes may lead to alterations in operational tactics and coordination among different units. Furthermore, the influx of foreign fighters, equipment, and military advisors on both sides has the potential to introduce novel combat techniques, potentially escalating the conflict's intensity.
In terms of equipment and infrastructure developments, recent reports suggest the deployment of advanced weapon systems, including long-range artillery and anti-ship missiles, which could alter the dynamics of engagements and complicate defensive strategies. Additionally, developments in electronic warfare capabilities have the potential to disrupt communication and surveillance systems, further shaping the battlespace.
In the coming weeks and months, the conflict's course could be influenced by these developments. A mix of traditional and hybrid tactics might lead to an increasingly complex battlefield, with information warfare playing a more prominent role. Leadership changes could either introduce more aggressive approaches or open doors to diplomatic solutions. As both sides incorporate advanced weaponry and tactics, the potential for more intense and unpredictable confrontations could reshape the conflict's trajectory.
SecurityACCESS Ukraine
Leveraging our extensive experience in Ukraine, Riley Risk has established the SecurityACCESS service, strengthening our local presence in Ukraine with our seasoned Risk Advisory team. This service amalgamates a range of critical solutions, meticulously designed to provide significant value to our clientele, ensuring their operations are secure, streamlined, and resilient in Ukraine's unique landscape. This strategic enhancement embodies our dedication to satisfying the growing demands posed by our clients' complex operational environment, in Ukraine and other global locations.
Riley Risk's SecurityACCESS service provides clients with access to a dedicated in-country security manager for full-time or part-time needs. Guided by our seasoned country security manager and support team based in Ukraine, we oversee comprehensive security management, provide localized safety training, generate detailed security analysis and reports, and conduct on-site venue assessments to devise effective risk mitigation strategies. Whatever the task, clients can trust that our tailored approach ensures security needs are met in alignment with their specific operational context.
Ukraine Core Capabilities
Our in-country services have evolved to meet organizational requirements with operational exposure in Ukraine, encompassing a broad spectrum of security support and risk management.
Here is a brief breakdown of our core offerings:
Ukraine Operational Presence and Expertise: Riley Risk maintains a dedicated full-time operations center in Kyiv, Ukraine, supplemented by the capacity to mobilize additional local experts throughout the country as needed. Our longstanding experience and expansive network in Ukraine reflect our commitment to providing tailored, premier risk management solutions. This operational presence ensures prompt and specialized responses to the complex dynamics of the region.
Travel Risk Management Support: Our approach is tailored to the unique risks of travel in designated regions, including High and Extreme risk locations. We offer policy guidance and protocols for both expatriates and national staff operating in Ukraine. Our services include planning, management, and monitoring for all travel, aligned with client-specific operational needs. This covers the creation of customized Journey Management Plans, location assessments, traveler briefings, and en-route tracking to ensure personnel safety.
Security Reporting and Alerts: We offer 24/7 surveillance, alerting, and incident response, complemented by twice-daily and real-time reporting tailored to the assigned personnel and risk context. Utilizing multiple vetted information sources, our in-country operations team validates threat data to deliver a robust monitoring solution for asset protection and risk mitigation.
In-Country Security Advisory Support: Our services include comprehensive venue security assessments and close protection for travelers. Additionally, we offer crisis management consultation, intelligence analysis, cyber threat assessments, and staff training on security protocols. These functions are designed to mitigate risk and ensure operational integrity for both expatriate and national personnel.
Additional Specialized Services Support: We provide an array of adaptable support services in Ukraine, ranging from deploying security-trained drivers in both armored and lower-profile non-armored vehicles, based on conducted risk and operational assessments. Our offerings also include communications support, Technical Surveillance Countermeasures (TSCM), and other pertinent risk advisory services.
To explore how our SecurityACCESS service can offer tailored, often cost-effective support, contact the Riley Risk Team here to set up an engagement call today.