Publish Date: 17DEC2023
Security & Geopolitical Analyst: MF
Contributing Authors: CT, MSO, ML, VV
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Summary
Over the past 7 days, a series of significant events have taken place that are directly or indirectly linked to the ongoing Ukrainian conflict. These developments have captured the attention of both regional and global audiences:
Russia has reportedly developed a new strategy aimed at expanding its presence in Ukrainian territory by 2026
Russian citizens are required to hand over their passports within five days when they are banned from traveling
Hungary started manufacturing combat vehicles for Ukraine
Germany to Hand Over Almost 200,000 Shells to the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 2024
Germany has also announced a new military aid package to support Ukraine
The UK will donate amphibious "raiding vehicles" to support Ukraine's Dnipro offensive
Ukraine's allies will provide ships to help defend against Russia in the Black Sea
Americans have filed charges against Russian soldiers who allegedly "abused an American in Ukraine"
Several Russian intelligence agents have been arrested in Ukraine
Denmark is preparing a €1 billion aid package for Ukraine
During the European Council meeting, the decision to open accession negotiations with Ukraine was made, and Orban left the room
The EU has failed to reach an agreement on providing €50 billion in funding for Ukraine
The EU has announced its intention to collect 15 billion euros for Ukraine from frozen Russian assets
The IMF has approved a payment of up to $900 million to Ukraine
Austria supports the EU's sanctions against Russia following Ukraine's decision to remove Raiffeisen from its blacklist
Japan has imposed export restrictions on an additional 57 Russian companies
Zelensky made a surprise visit to Norway on December 13th
On December 12th, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the US for the third time since the full-scale invasion
On December 13th, the US Senate voted on the budget for the upcoming year and approved a historic USD 886 billion for defense spending
Finland reopened its border with Russia but later decided to shut it again due to an ongoing asylum dispute
Threat Mapping Updates
Mapping Analysis
Despite worsening weather conditions, it could be observed over the last 7 days that Russians continued their assaults along the entire front line. They launched massive missile attacks on the Kyiv and Odesa regions. On December 13th, Kyiv experienced a significant attack that many consider to be a clear demonstration of the Kremlin's strength and a 'message' to the leadership in Kyiv. This attack took place just minutes after Zelensky met with Joe Biden for talks in Washington. Despite the Ukrainian air defense successfully shooting down all 10 missiles, falling debris still caused extensive damage. As a result, at least 53 people, including 5 children, were injured. The next day, the Russians launched another attack, this time targeting the Odesa region. They utilized 42 drones and 6 missiles. Once again, the Ukrainian air defense successfully intercepted and shot down most of the hostile aircraft. However, the resulting debris inflicted damage on the port infrastructure, while 11 individuals sustained injuries. There have also been reports of Kinzhal missiles being utilized in certain locations. One of the presumed targets was the Starokostyantyniv military airfield, which is located near the city of Khmelnytsky and serves as the base for Ukrainian frontline Su-24 bombers.
In addition to airstrikes on Kyiv, Odesa, and other places, Russian ground attacks are also targeting several strategic locations. The most intense fighting is currently concentrated around Avdiivka and Kupiansk, with Avdiivka serving as the epicenter. According to Ukrainian data, approximately 40% of recent combat engagements have occurred in this area. After unsuccessful attempts by the Russian forces to conquer Avdiivka using tanks and infantry, the focus has now shifted to employing night-flying attack drones. The objective is to disrupt Ukrainian supply lines and force the city's garrison to retreat. While the Frontintelligence Insight analysis group believes that the Russian offensive on Avdiivka has reached its peak and that Russian forces have lost their eagerness and operational capability to assault, other reports suggest that Russian attacks continue to be highly attritional. These assaults are often conducted by units manned by convicts.
In addition to Avdiivka, it is important to note that the Russian occupying forces are actively attempting to capture the village of Synkivka as well. Their objective is to pave the way for the blockade of the town of Kupiansk. In this regard, they are currently deploying reserves in the surrounding area. Additionally, on the Lyman front, there is an ongoing offensive to push Ukrainian troops beyond the Chornyi Zherebets River and out of the Serebrianka Forest area in Luhansk Oblast. The Russians are also directing significant efforts towards the Bakhmut front, located north and west of the city. They are utilizing airborne units, Special Forces, and the 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Northern Fleet for assault operations. On the other hand, as highlighted by Oleksandr Syrskyi, the Commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Ukrainian defenders are resolutely holding their positions and inflicting significant losses on enemy forces. Notably, on December 13th alone, the Defense Forces of Ukraine successfully destroyed 28 units of enemy equipment in the Tavria direction. This included 13 tanks and 12 other armored vehicles. Additionally, they have eliminated 401 Russian invaders, destroyed one enemy artillery system, and damaged another 10 units of their military equipment.
Moreover, the Ukrainian forces continued to inflict significant losses on the enemy on the following day as well. According to UK Defence Intelligence, a division of Russian paratroopers incurred heavy casualties in their attempt to neutralize Ukrainian forces near the village of Krynky on the left bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast. Despite Vladimir Putin's claims to the contrary, UK analysts state that following this incident, numerous Russian military bloggers called for the resignation of Dnipro Group of Forces Commander, Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky. The reason cited was the reported lack of airpower and artillery support for 104 GAD, coupled with the likelihood of inexperienced troops. According to Syrskyi's claim, even though the Russians heavily rely on their numerical advantage, the casualties in the east outnumber those of the Ukrainian Defence Forces by approximately eight times. In fact, a US intelligence assessment reveals that Russia has lost a staggering 87 percent of its total number of active-duty ground troops since launching its invasion of Ukraine, along with two-thirds of its pre-invasion tanks. According to some reports, in November alone, the Defense Forces of Ukraine successfully eliminated around 11, 000 Russian troops and destroyed over 1, 100 pieces of military equipment. This included 130 tanks and 260 artillery and mortar units of various calibers.
However, despite suffering heavy losses, everything suggests that Russia will likely continue its ground and air attacks. They will continuously replenish their troops from reserve formations and vary their air striking tactics to overwhelm Ukrainian air defense. This strategy aims to maximize damage to critical infrastructure and energy facilities as winter weather conditions worsen. However, a US intelligence report shared with Congress on December 12th suggests that Russia's alleged plans are now primarily focused on undermining Western support for Ukraine, rather than achieving significant operational goals. The report also assesses that Russian attritional attacks, such as those around Avdiivka, are a strategic effort to maintain the current military deadlock over the winter. Russian strategists believe that this approach will deplete Western support and give Russian forces an advantage. With ongoing debates in various Western capitals, including Washington DC, regarding the ability and willingness of Kyiv's allies to provide long-term military aid to Ukraine, this strategy may yield positive results in the year leading up to the US presidential election. In essence, Russia's attritional approach aims to outlast Ukraine and the West, with Moscow being highly likely to endure significant casualties to achieve its objectives. On the other hand, Ukraine's position has now changed as Kyiv's summer and autumn counter-offensive in Zaporizhzhia Oblast has proven ineffective in achieving any significant operational objectives.
Caught in a stalemate, Ukrainian troops have no choice but to persevere in their efforts to repel unceasing Russian attacks and capitalize on any weaknesses in the Russian line. After all, this largely aligns with the plans of Zelensky, who stated on December 13th that the Ukrainian focus on defensive operations is now a response to the challenging winter weather conditions. He also emphasized that the main objective for the Ukrainian military during the winter would be to maintain their current positions and neutralize the Russian forces. This also falls in line with the suggestions of various senior US officials and officers who are advising Kyiv to pursue a 'hold and build' strategy. This strategy entails Ukraine focusing on retaining the territory it currently controls and bolstering its military capabilities by expanding its native military-industrial production, aiming to enhance its self-sufficiency in defense.
Priority Updates
Russian citizens are required to hand over their passports within five days when they are banned from traveling
Starting Monday, December 11th, a government decree will be enforced, stating that Russians who have been banned from traveling abroad must surrender their passports to the authorities within five days of receiving notification. The travel ban can be imposed on individuals such as conscripts, employees of the Federal Security Service (FSB), convicts, or those who have access to state secrets or "information of special importance," among others, as specified by Russian law.
Hungary started manufacturing combat vehicles for Ukraine
The manufacturing of Lynx combat vehicles has already commenced, marking a collaborative effort between Ukraine, Germany, and Hungary. Future collaboration is expected in both manufacturing and servicing, strengthening the partnership among these three nations.
Germany to Hand Over Almost 200,000 Shells to the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 2024
According to a report from Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung, Germany is planning to hand over 200, 000 shells to the Defense Forces of Ukraine in 2024. The German industry is currently ramping up ammunition production to meet this demand. Inspector General of the German Armed Forces, Carsten Breuer, made this announcement.
Germany has also announced a new military aid package to support Ukraine
In addition to surveillance equipment, Germany has increased its supply of border protection vehicles, bringing the total to 241. These vehicles play a vital role in patrolling and securing Ukraine's borders, although the specific type of vehicle has not been specified. Another critical aspect of German aid is humanitarian support, demonstrated by the provision of 500, 000 first aid kits, a significant increase from the previous 400, 000. This aid is complemented by essential medical materials, emphasizing the importance of addressing the medical needs of those affected by the conflict. Additionally, the package includes a substantial amount of ammunition, consisting of over 26, 000 rounds of 155mm artillery shells sourced from Bundeswehr and industry stocks. Furthermore, it comprises 30 GMG grenade launchers.
The UK will donate amphibious "raiding vehicles" to support Ukraine's Dnipro offensive
Britain has agreed to donate a significant number of amphibious vehicles and raiding craft to Ukraine as it solidifies its positions on the left bank of the Dnipro River. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has announced that the UK will provide 20 Viking amphibious vehicles and 23 raiding craft, as part of a comprehensive deal aimed at bolstering Ukraine's navy. These vehicles and vessels are part of a new naval coalition led by Britain and Norway, which will also supply Ukraine with two minesweepers.
Ukraine's allies will provide ships to help defend against Russia in the Black Sea
On December 11, the British Defense Ministry announced that the U.K. and Norway would lead a coalition to assist Ukraine in safeguarding its maritime export routes from Russian interference. The primary objective of this coalition is to support Ukraine in transforming its Navy to align with Western allies and enhance security in the Black Sea. As an initial measure, the U.K. will be transferring two minehunter ships to Ukraine. This step marks the beginning of a long-term effort to bolster Ukraine's naval capabilities and strengthen its relationship with Western nations.
Americans have filed charges against Russian soldiers who allegedly "abused an American in Ukraine"
In a historic move, the US Department of Justice has issued indictments against Russian soldiers for the first time. The charges include torture, inhumane treatment, and illegal imprisonment. These war crimes were committed on Ukrainian territory, with an American citizen as the victim who was kidnapped and subjected to torture.
Several Russian intelligence agents have been arrested in Ukraine
Over the past 10 days, several Russian intelligence agents, including females, have been arrested in Lviv, Kyiv, and Dnipro. These agents were observed visiting bars and restaurants frequented by international media, security personnel, and NGO staff. Ukraine's Intelligence Services have recently reported a significant number of 'Honey Trap' attempts by Russia targeting politicians, business executives, and individuals who may not have the necessary training or experience to recognize that they are being exploited for gathering snippets of information such as times, locations, numbers, and more.
Denmark is preparing a €1 billion aid package for Ukraine
The package, valued at approximately €1 billion or DKK 7. 5 billion, will include ammunition, tanks, and drones. "We are currently in a critical stage of the war, and it is crucial that we ensure Ukraine has all the necessary resources to continue its fight," stated Mette Frederiksen, the Prime Minister of Denmark, during a press conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on December 14th.
Political Developments
During the European Council meeting, the decision to open accession negotiations with Ukraine was made, and Orban left the room
The European Council has decided to open accession negotiations with Ukraine, and during this decision, Viktor Orban left the room. Charles Michel, the President of the European Council, emphasized the significance of this decision for the credibility of the EU, referring to it as "a very powerful political signal". It is important to note that during the vote, the Hungarian Prime Minister chose not to exercise his right of veto, despite previously warning that he would do so. However, after the decision, Orban reiterated that Ukraine is not ready to start accession negotiations and that Hungary has not changed its position regarding this issue.
The EU has failed to reach an agreement on providing €50 billion in funding for Ukraine
In related news, the EU has been unable to reach an agreement on a critical €50bn financial aid package for Ukraine. The proposal was vetoed by Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, raising concerns about Europe's ongoing support for Kyiv. This collapse in funding talks, which is considered vital for Ukraine's financial stability until 2024, comes after multiple failed attempts by the US Congress to agree on a $60bn aid package proposed by the White House. This development has raised concerns about the weakening resolve of the Western countries to support Ukraine in its ongoing battle against Russia. EU leaders, who engaged in negotiations until the early hours of Friday, are set to reconvene in Brussels in early 2024 to discuss financing options for Kyiv, potentially exploring avenues to provide financial assistance without the involvement of Orbán.
The announcement of the failed efforts came hours after leaders agreed to open accession talks with Ukraine, marking a significant milestone on Kyiv's path to joining the EU once the war with Russia is over. This decision also serves as an endorsement by Brussels of the country's western trajectory. It is worth noting that Orbán's veto came despite Brussels unlocking €10. 2bn of EU funding to Hungary, which had been previously blocked on the grounds of the rule of law. In an interview published on 12 December, Balazs Orbán, the chief political adviser of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, expressed Budapest's opposition to a full four-year aid plan. He revealed that Budapest would prefer the EU to provide financing to Kyiv for a single year without any amendments to the budget.The EU has announced its intention to collect 15 billion euros for Ukraine from frozen Russian assets
The European Commission plans to collect approximately 15 billion euros by 2027 to support Ukraine using frozen Russian assets. The proposal specifically targets the income generated from the assets of the Russian Central Bank, with an aim to generate up to three billion euros annually. While the proposal was presented this summer, there have been doubts expressed by certain members of the European Union and the European Central Bank regarding its legal and financial viability.
The IMF has approved a payment of up to $900 million to Ukraine
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has announced the approval of the second review of the loan program for Ukraine, enabling the disbursement of $900 million. According to a statement, "The IMF's Executive Board concluded today the consultations on Article IV for 2023 and completed the second review of the arrangement for Ukraine. The completion of the second review allows the authorities to immediately access approximately $900 million." This news was reported by RIA.
Austria supports the EU's sanctions against Russia following Ukraine's decision to remove Raiffeisen from its blacklist
Austria has approved the 12th package of EU sanctions on Russia after Ukraine removed Raiffeisen Bank International (RBIV.VI) from its blacklist, according to Ukraine's government website and an EU diplomat. Austria had been advocating for the removal of the bank from Ukraine's list of "international sponsors of war," which aims to publicly shame companies conducting business in Russia and supporting the war effort, such as by paying taxes. While the blacklist does not hold any legal standing, it carries significant symbolic importance by increasing public pressure on Raiffeisen to withdraw from Russia. Despite the Austrian bank expressing its willingness to do so, this action has not yet been taken.
Japan has imposed export restrictions on an additional 57 Russian companies
In a statement, the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry announced that Japan has implemented export restrictions on 57 Russian companies. Additionally, they have imposed sanctions, such as asset freezes, on 35 individuals and 47 organizations from Russia. The list of entities targeted by the new sanctions includes Urals Civil Aviation Plant, Elektropribor Scientific Research Center, Bryansk Automobile Plant, Motovilikha Plants, Kurganmashzavod, Khabarovsk Ship Building Plant, the Vostochnaya Verf shipyard, Burevestnik Scientific Research Center, 150-1 Aircraft Repair Plant, Reshetnev Information Satellite Systems, and various other organizations. The ministry stated that with the latest additions, the number of Russian companies subject to Japanese export restrictions has reached 494. The sanctions against the 57 companies will come into effect on December 22.
Zelensky made a surprise visit to Norway on December 13th
According to a statement from the Norwegian government, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made an unannounced visit to Norway to discuss support for the defense of his country against the Russian invasion. During the meeting, Zelensky and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre discussed Norway's continued support for Ukraine, as announced by the government.
On December 12th, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the US for the third time since the full-scale invasion
On December 12th, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made his third visit to the US since the full-scale invasion. His primary objective was to engage in discussions with his counterpart and secure financial support for Ukraine. The issue of negotiations was addressed during a joint press conference in Washington, where President Zelenskyy firmly rejected the notion of ceding territory to achieve peace, deeming it "absolutely insane." President Joe Biden, in response, pledged ongoing military assistance and expressed concerns about potential delays caused by political disagreements over government spending.
On December 13th, the US Senate voted on the budget for the upcoming year and approved a historic USD 886 billion for defense spending
On December 13th, the US Senate voted on the budget for the upcoming year and approved a historic USD 886 billion for defense spending. Within the bill, there is a provision known as the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which is the only section that specifically provides aid to Ukraine. This initiative is set to continue until 2026. However, the bill still needs to be approved by the House of Representatives.
Finland reopened its border with Russia but later decided to shut it again due to an ongoing asylum dispute
Finland has recently reopened its border with Russia, only to close it again within hours. This development is part of an ongoing dispute over asylum seekers, with Helsinki accusing Moscow of conducting a "hybrid operation" on the eastern edge of the EU. After a two-week period of complete border closure, two out of the eight crossings along the 830-mile land frontier were briefly reopened. However, the decision to reclose these crossing points was quickly made after an estimated 36 people crossed over from Russia seeking asylum, as reported by the Finnish border guard. Helsinki has claimed that the recent increase in asylum seekers arriving via Russia is a deliberate action orchestrated by Moscow in response to Finland's decision to enhance defense cooperation with the US. However, the Kremlin has denied these allegations. Addressing the parliament, Finnish Interior Minister Mari Rantanen stated, "With this resurgence of the phenomenon, we are now taking the necessary steps to close the entire border."
Analysis of Priority & Political Updates
The global show of support for Ukraine has significant political ramifications on both regional and international levels. The backing from various nations underscores the complexity of the conflict and its implications for global security dynamics. As countries vocally condemn Russia's actions and express solidarity with Ukraine, diplomatic tensions rise, potentially leading to shifts in alliances and geopolitical strategies.
The United States and its NATO allies have been particularly vocal in their support for Ukraine, signaling a unified stance against Russian aggression and a commitment to upholding international norms and territorial integrity. This collective stance amplifies diplomatic pressure on Russia, potentially leading to sanctions and other punitive measures.
Furthermore, the global support for Ukraine underscores the importance of international law and norms in addressing conflicts and maintaining a rules-based international order. It serves as a reminder that actions violating sovereignty and territorial integrity are met with widespread condemnation and potential consequences, thus influencing the calculus of nations engaged in such activities.
The political impact of global support for Ukraine extends beyond the immediate conflict, potentially affecting broader diplomatic relations and regional stability. The unity of nations in support of Ukraine could embolden other nations to rally against aggression and assert their interests through international cooperation. However, it also raises the stakes of the conflict, increasing the potential for escalation and necessitating careful diplomatic navigation to prevent a wider crisis.
Conflict Zone Updates
As the highly anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive stagnated during the fall and has now shifted to a defensive stance, Russia has launched attacks on multiple fronts in an attempt to regain the initiative in eastern Ukraine. In this regard, it is worth noting that while the Ukrainian army is trying to hold the defensive line, there have been ongoing localized Russian offensives near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Marinka, resulting in some advancements. For instance, geolocation footage confirms recent advancements by Russian forces to the northwest of Klishchiivka, which is located 7 km southwest of Bakhmut. This is part of their operation to encircle Chasiv Yar, situated 12 km west of the city. Furthermore, according to reports from Russian milbloggers, Russian forces have recently captured a Ukrainian-held stronghold north of Khromove along the O0506 highway, just west of Bakhmut.
Similarly, other Russian sources have claimed that Russian forces have advanced to within 100m of the outskirts of Bohdanivka, which is approximately four miles (6km) west of Bakhmut. However, this information was not confirmed. Additionally, Russian troops have continued their offensive near Avdiivka and have made further advances. Geolocation footage released on December 15th reveals that they have moved closer to Stepove, (located 3 km north of Avdiivka), as well as Pervomaiske (situated 11 km southwest of Avdiivka). Both Russian and Ukrainian sources reported on December 13th that Russian forces have also made marginal advances near Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia). In recent weeks, it has been claimed that Russian forces have been launching counterattacks along the southern Zaporizhzhia line. These counterattacks have resulted in small advances, pushing Ukrainian forces back near Robotyne and to the north of Verbove, which are located approximately six miles (10km) to the east. Furthermore, they have continued their offensive operations to the west and southwest of Donetsk, achieving confirmed gains. Geolocation footage released on December 13th reveals that Russian forces have made advances in the western area of Marinka, which is situated to the west of Donetsk. It also reveals that Russian forces made limited progress to the southeast of Spirne, which is approximately 16 miles (25km) south of Kreminna in Luhansk oblast. According to Russian milbloggers on November 13th, Russian forces claimed to have advanced east of Ivanivka and Zahoruykivka, which are situated approximately 12 miles (20km) and ten miles (16km) southeast and east of Kupiansk, respectively. However, it is important to note that these advancements are only marginal, and both sides seem to be deadlocked. Hence, to demonstrate the contrary, both Russia and Ukraine have experienced a notable rise in drone attacks in the past week. In addition, they have been employing new weapons or upgrading existing ones. Such development has even led figures like Carlos Del Toro, the Secretary of the US Navy, to assert that a "new era of warfare" has emerged, wherein drones, upgrading of the weaponry, and cyber-attacks are exerting a crucial influence. In support of this, the recent developments over the past week speak for themselves.
Namely, on December 12th, the Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine (GUR) launched a cyber-attack on Russia's Federal Tax Service (FNS). This attack had a significant impact on the tax service's server network, as malware was deployed to disrupt the functioning of the tax system in Russia. This included the destruction of the database and its backup copies. Despite efforts to restore the system, the network remains paralyzed, and it is anticipated that it will remain offline for at least a month. In response to this, Russia retaliated on the same day by launching a cyber-attack on Ukraine's largest telecommunications operator, Kyivstar. This resulted in disrupted communication and internet services for over 24 million users. The internet disruptions had knock-on impacts, affecting online banking services and Ukraine's air raid alert network. Even though a Russian hacking group linked to the Russian GRU has claimed responsibility, there are suspicions that Iran could also be involved. However, the final statement on the ongoing investigation will be made after the Ukrainian side receives information on traffic data at the Tier-1 and Tier-2 levels. While the entire system is still undergoing full restoration, 90 percent of subscribers had their basic services restored by 6 PM on December 14th.
In addition to cyber-attacks, both sides are actively developing new weaponry or upgrading existing ones. For instance, Russia claims that it is actively developing its Shahed/Geran 2 UAVs. According to Russian military officials, the upgraded version will feature a jet engine, allowing for a flight speed of up to 800 km/h (instead of 200 km/h). Additionally, it will boast an improved guidance system and a larger warhead. Furthermore, to counter the initial advantage of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in drone usage at the onset of the war, the Russian General Staff has issued an order lifting all restrictions on the use of ammunition for artillery systems and drones. This decision has been made possible due to a significant increase in ammunition and drone production at Russian defense industry factories, which has tripled in recent times. More precisely, the intention, as stated, is to lift all restrictions on the use of ammunition and achieve a ratio of 'one Russian drone for every Ukrainian soldier'.
On the other hand, Ukrainians have successfully upgraded the Igla man-portable air defense system with thermal imaging equipment. This upgrade has significantly enhanced the effectiveness of mobile fire groups in the Air Force, particularly in shooting down Shahed drones during nighttime operations. Furthermore, the US has plans to deliver 14 mobile VAMPIRE systems for launching APKWS 70mm rockets, which will further bolster Ukraine's air defense capabilities, while Norway has decided to provide Ukraine with additional NASAMS for the same purpose. Moreover, in addition to receiving approximately 30 Bohdana ACS, Ukraine is also developing a towed version of this 155-mm howitzer artillery system. Meanwhile, the Russian army has received a new batch of BMP-2M fighting vehicles. On December 12th, the Russian state corporation Rostec announced that its subsidiary Vysokotochni kompleksy has delivered a batch of modernized infantry fighting vehicles, the BMP-2M, equipped with the Berezhok combat modules, to the military. Specifically, the BPK-2-42 gunner's main sight has been replaced with a combined sight that features independent line-of-sight stabilization in two planes. Furthermore, all Russian T-80BVM tanks now come equipped with advanced counter-drone systems. It is important to note that Russia is also enhancing its naval capabilities through the development of new kamikaze drone boats. These unmanned boats can cover distances of up to 200 kilometers at speeds of 80 km/h and can carry an explosive payload or other useful cargo weighing up to 600 kilograms. If launched from Crimea, these boats have the potential to strike Odesa.
Air Raid Frequency Updates
In the field, having accurate and up-to-date information about air raid alerts is crucial for the safety and efficiency of personnel. Understanding the frequency, duration, and location of these alerts provides valuable insight that can significantly impact decision-making on the ground. Armed with this knowledge, personnel can plan their movements more strategically, avoiding high-risk areas during times of increased alert activity. With the help of this vital information, they can ensure safer operations while maximizing their resources effectively.
By analyzing the available information from November 20 to November 25, several key points can be observed:
Similar to previous periods, the highest peaks of Air Raid Alerts occurred at noon, with smaller peaks at 2 PM and 5 PM.
Moreover, it is worth mentioning that the majority of Air Raid Alerts typically lasted between 30 minutes and 1 hour (216 occurrences). It was rare to encounter Air Raid Alerts that lasted between 2. 5 and 3 hours, which only occurred 20 times.
Furthermore, it is worth noting a slight shift in the pattern of eventful days for Air Raid Alerts compared to the previous period. In the past reporting period, Sunday had the highest frequency of Air Raid Alerts, closely followed by Tuesday and Wednesday. However, recent data from the past week reveals a noticeable change. Thursday has now emerged as the most eventful day, with 165 occurrences, followed by Saturday and Sunday with 149 and 139 occurrences respectively. On the other hand, Monday has become the day with the lowest frequency, with only 60 reported Air Raid Alerts.
Finally, it was discovered that the Donetsk and Kherson regions had the highest concentration of Air Raid Alerts, with 77 and 76 incidents, respectively. In contrast, the Zakarpattia, Rivne, and Volyn regions experienced a minimal number of Air Raid Alerts, with only 11 recorded occurrences.
Analysis of Conflict Development
Recent updates in the Ukraine conflict suggest potential shifts in tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTP), which could have far-reaching implications for the conflict's trajectory in the near future. Reports indicate a notable increase in hybrid warfare tactics, including cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns targeting both military and civilian infrastructure. This suggests an evolving strategy to undermine Ukraine's stability beyond traditional battlefield engagements.
Leadership changes have also emerged as a significant development. New announcements indicate a reshuffling of top military personnel, potentially signifying adjustments in strategic direction. Such changes may lead to alterations in operational tactics and coordination among different units. Furthermore, the influx of foreign fighters, equipment, and military advisors on both sides has the potential to introduce novel combat techniques, potentially escalating the conflict's intensity.
In terms of equipment and infrastructure developments, recent reports suggest the deployment of advanced weapon systems, including long-range artillery and anti-ship missiles, which could alter the dynamics of engagements and complicate defensive strategies. Additionally, developments in electronic warfare capabilities have the potential to disrupt communication and surveillance systems, further shaping the battlespace.
In the coming weeks and months, the conflict's course could be influenced by these developments. A mix of traditional and hybrid tactics might lead to an increasingly complex battlefield, with information warfare playing a more prominent role. Leadership changes could either introduce more aggressive approaches or open doors to diplomatic solutions. As both sides incorporate advanced weaponry and tactics, the potential for more intense and unpredictable confrontations could reshape the conflict's trajectory.
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