Publish Date: 23DEC2023
Security & Geopolitical Analyst: MF
Contributing Authors: CT, MSO, ML, VV
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Summary
Over the past 7 days, a series of significant events have taken place that are directly or indirectly linked to the ongoing Ukrainian conflict. These developments have captured the attention of both regional and global audiences:
Ukraine is celebrating Christmas on 25th December for the first time since 1917
Western companies lost $100 billion because of their departure from Russia
The Ukrainian army has requested the mobilization of up to 500, 000 additional troops
The use of synthetic drugs among Russians is skyrocketing, particularly as soldiers return from Ukraine with addictions
A listening device was discovered in an office designated for the use of Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces
A Chinese company, which is planning to build a tunnel to Crimea, has been added to the list of war sponsors
A Ukrainian hacker group targeted both a Russian utility company and the Russian IT infrastructure
Finland has announced a military aid package for Ukraine worth $116 million
Germany has placed an order for artillery shells worth over $400 million to support Ukraine
Germany is sending additional Gepard anti-aircraft guns to Ukraine
Ukraine has received a payment of €1. 5 billion (£1. 3 billion) from the European Union
Sweden and Denmark have announced their plans to send additional CV90 combat vehicles to Ukraine
The UK Court has upheld the decision for Russia to compensate Ukraine's energy company, Naftogaz Group, with $5 billion over the seizure of assets in Crimea
Orban claims that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is not a war
The Hungarian president has announced his agreement to a future meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky
The Slovak Prime Minister has confirmed Slovakia's intention to oppose Ukraine's admission to NATO
Russia has summoned the Finnish ambassador over the US border accord
Threat Mapping Updates
Mapping Analysis
Over the past week, there has been continuous engagement between Ukrainian and Russian forces along the contact line. Reports indicate that Russian troops have made a confirmed advance north of Bakhmut. Geolocated footage also suggests a marginal southwest advance near Spirne, which is situated 25 km northeast of Bakhmut. Consequently, fighting is currently occurring on the northwestern and southwestern flanks of the city. According to reports, there are claims that Russian invaders advanced west of Bakhmut on December 20, although this information has not been confirmed yet. However, it shouldn't come as a surprise, given that there are allegedly 62, 000 Russian troops in that direction, according to Ukrainian sources. It is also noted that the number of occupiers in this part of the front is not decreasing. Furthermore, progress has been recorded west of Khromove, with Russian forces observed prioritizing operations around the village. According to ISW, a Russian military blogger has also claimed that Russian forces are increasing their tempo of operations north of Klishchivka, as well as near Novomykhailivka (Donetsk Oblast) and Novoprokopivka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast). Furthermore, multiple sources are reporting intense ongoing fighting in the vicinity of the eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka. Russian forces are strategically advancing along the flanks of the settlement. More specifically, significant advancements have been observed in the settlements of Novokalynove, which is located 5 km northwest of Avdiivka, the town of Krasnohorivka, situated 3 km northeast of Avdiivka, the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant, located the northwest of Avdiivka, an industrial area southeast of the city, and a marginal gain just north of Pervomaiske, which is approximately six miles southwest of Avdiivka. In addition to Avdiivka, there have been reports of "confirmed advances" by Russian units in the northeastern Luhansk Oblast, specifically northeast of Kupyansk, as well as southwest of Avdiivka in the Donetsk Oblast. Geolocated footage posted on December 18 shows that Russian forces made minor gains near the village of Stepove. Russian troops appear to be determined to tighten their grip on Avdiivka by strategically targeting the western approach routes to the embattled city and cutting off reinforcements. This tactic mirrors their previous actions in capturing the city of Bakhmut, where they inflicted significant damage and incurred heavy casualties.
On the other hand, while Russian troops were conducting offensive operations near the town of Avdiivka, Ukrainian forces launched a counterattack and made advancements east of the settlement of Nevelske. Recently released geolocation footage revealed that Ukrainian troops had also made recent advancements north of the settlement of Synkivka. These actions have put pressure on the Russian forces, particularly on the Melitopol front. Additionally, they were involved in offensive actions along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, while successfully repelling multiple Russian attacks near Synkivka (9 km northeast of Kupiansk), east of Petropavlivka (7 km east of Kupiansk), northwest of Kreminna near Makiivka (23km northwest of Kreminna), west of Kreminna in the area east of Terny (17 km east of Kreminna), and south of Kreminna near Spirne (30km south of Kreminna). In this regard, it should be noted that on Monday, December 18, alone, Russia lost an additional 1, 000 soldiers, 60 armored combat vehicles, 44 tanks, and 38 artillery systems. Ukrainians have successfully repelled multiple attacks near the settlements of Bohdanivka (6 km northwest of Bakhmut), Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka (10 km southwest of Bakhmut). In addition, they have conducted offensive operations in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast. However, it seems that they have not made significant progress. On the other hand, despite difficult conditions in the area and constant Russian attempts to drive them out, Ukrainian forces continue operations on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast. This appears to be an effort to establish conditions for future Ukrainian operations and the resettlement of the west (right) bank of Kherson Oblast. A Russian military blogger has confirmed this, adding that the Russian personnel stationed there are expressing concerns about the inadequate transportation available for evacuating the wounded, as well as the absence of electronic warfare systems to counter Ukrainian drones. Furthermore, Ukrainians have continued to launch strikes on Crimea, which has compelled the Russians to relocate almost all of their "serious ships" to Novorossiysk, including the Kalibr cruise missile carriers.
Generally, in recent weeks, Ukraine has made a concentrated effort to enhance field fortifications as its forces shift towards a more defensive stance along the front line. While there have been some advancements in specific areas and ongoing strikes on Crimea, the primary focus remains on defending their positions. Given the limited manpower and ammunition, particularly in terms of artillery, it is not surprising that this defensive tactic is being employed. However, it is important to note that the defenses have held strong thus far. This is supported by the data, which indicates that in certain areas of the Avdiivka sector, Russian forces have advanced approximately one and a half to two kilometers, but at a significant cost of around 20, 000 casualties in the past two months. On the other hand, Russians are making slow but steady advances at strategic positions along the front line, conducting bombing and shelling campaigns in various locations. This activity is expected to intensify during the winter months, particularly focusing on Kyiv and critical energy infrastructure. The fact that they have a significant advantage in stockpiles of artillery shells supports this assessment. Additionally, Ukrainian, and Western officials have recently estimated that Russian forces are currently conducting artillery fire at a rate five to seven times higher than that of the Ukrainian forces. This shouldn't come as a surprise, given that according to NATO assessments, Ukraine is producing 4, 000-7, 000 units of this type of ammunition daily, while Russia produces 20, 000 units. Moreover, the data shows that since the beginning of the war, Russians have fired 7, 400 missiles and 3, 700 Shahed drones so far. As Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat recently stated, the Russians now possess enough drones to launch daily attacks on Ukraine from various directions.
Priority Updates
Ukraine is celebrating Christmas on 25th December for the first time since 1917
For the first time since 1917, Ukraine is celebrating Christmas on 25 December. This change of date from 7 January, which is the date for Christmas in the Julian calendar used by Russia, represents more than just a shift in the calendar. It signifies a significant cultural shift in Ukraine and is the latest step in the country's efforts to distance itself from Moscow's influence. Adopting the Western, Gregorian calendar, it also demonstrates Kyiv's ongoing commitment to aligning itself with Europe.
Western companies lost $100 billion because of their departure from Russia
According to a report by the New York Times, companies that sold their Russian businesses incurred a significant loss of $103 billion. Moreover, these firms had to pay exit fees of at least $1. 25 billion to the Russian state. Since last March, Western companies wishing to sell their assets in Russia have been required to obtain approval from a Russian government commission. This commission often facilitates the sale of these assets to local buyers at lower prices.
The Ukrainian army has requested the mobilization of up to 500, 000 additional troops
Zelenskiy has stated that the military has requested the mobilization of an additional 450-500, 000 people into the army, but a final decision has not been made yet. The Ukrainian president acknowledged that such mobilization would present financial challenges. In November, he instructed Ukraine's Defense Minister Rustem Umerov and Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi to develop a new procedure for mobilizing such a significant number of individuals. Shortly after, Umerov expressed his intention to mobilize Ukrainian men living abroad. He mentioned that these individuals would initially be "invited" to report to recruiting offices, but also emphasized that appropriate measures would be taken if they did not comply willingly. In a related event, the deputy commander of the 3rd Special Brigade of the Ukrainian army, which is essentially a renamed "Azov" formation, has proposed the creation of units within the Armed Forces of Ukraine comprised of prisoners. He argues that it would be more cost-effective for Kyiv to utilize prisoners on the frontlines, rather than spending money on their incarceration in penal institutions. With proper officer selection, he believes these units can demonstrate sufficient efficiency. He also references the Russian experience with the "Wagner" group.
The use of synthetic drugs among Russians is skyrocketing, particularly as soldiers return from Ukraine with addictions
The report, titled "Time of Troubles," from December 2023, reveals that a combination of unaffordable drugs and unreliable trafficking routes has resulted in a significant increase in synthetic drugs across Russia. According to Mark Galeotti, a leading expert on Russia, synthetic opioids are not only cheaper to produce but also more readily available to ordinary Russians. The report found that the war had also accelerated the use of synthetic amphetamines, such as mephedrone, which is known as "salt" in Russian slang. This increase in consumption was particularly evident in cities like Donetsk, where many soldiers were either based or on leave. Furthermore, a report from the Royal United Service Institute in May revealed that certain Russian soldiers were being administered amphetamines to reduce their inhibitions during combat. Additionally, a Russian news outlet reported in October that soldiers were receiving illicit drugs directly to their trenches to alleviate boredom. Galeotti further highlighted that soldiers have begun to bring their addictions back home, resulting in a significant increase in "salt-related cases'' in cities such as Krasnodar, Moscow, Kostroma, Kurgan, and Chelyabinsk. This was further confirmed by Vladimir Kolokoltsev, Russia's Minister of Internal Affairs, who openly acknowledged during a July 2023 antidrug committee meeting that while imports of synthetic drugs from abroad had decreased, domestic production had significantly increased. He concluded that this problem is unlikely to disappear even after the war is over.
A listening device was discovered in an office designated for the use of Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces
Ukraine has initiated a criminal investigation following the discovery of a listening device in an office designated for the armed forces Commander-in-Chief, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, according to officials. The General Staff revealed on December 18 that "listening devices" had been installed in offices intended for the commander-in-chief and his office staff. Zaluzhnyi informed Ukraine's RBC media that he had previously used the office, although not recently, and was scheduled to work there again on Monday. He denied that employees of the General Staff could have been involved in the installation. Additionally, he stated that he did not believe state secrets had been discussed in the office. The security service has stated that the device, which was initially described as a bug by local media, is believed to be in a non-operational state based on preliminary information. No means of information storage or remote transmission of audio recordings were found. Zaluzhnyi has been mentioned as a potential target for a reshuffle in top military ranks due to a cooling in relations with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who disagrees with his perspective on the conduct of the 22-month-old war against Russia.
A Chinese company, which is planning to build a tunnel to Crimea, has been added to the list of war sponsors
The National Agency for Corruption Prevention (NACP) has included China's second-largest state-owned construction company, China Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC), in the list of international sponsors of the war due to its involvement in the construction of a tunnel from Russia to Crimea. CRCC has been active in Russia for six years, establishing its representative office after the start of the Russian war of aggression in 2014. It continues to operate in Russia, undertaking projects such as building subways, bridges, and highways. CRCC is controlled by the China Railway Construction Group, which is fully subordinate to the State Administration of State-owned Assets of China (SASAC).
A Ukrainian hacker group targeted both a Russian utility company and the Russian IT infrastructure
On December 20th, the Ukrainian hacking group, Blackjack, reportedly conducted a cyber-attack on the IT infrastructure of Rosvodokanal, a prominent Russian water utility company. Media reports suggest that this attack by Blackjack affected more than 6, 000 computers, resulting in the deletion of 50 terabytes of sensitive data. Rosvodokanal has not provided an official comment on the incident. Additionally, in a separate incident, the IT Army of Ukraine claimed responsibility for an attack on the Russian cloud service, Bitrix24. This cloud service is utilized by various companies, including Rosneft, the largest Russian oil and gas enterprise. Allegedly, Rosneft experienced operational disruptions following a cyberattack. These two incidents are said to be like a cyber-attack that allegedly targeted the Russian Federal Tax Service. Furthermore, the largest Ukrainian mobile operator, Kyivstar, was hacked on 12 December.
Political Developments
Finland has announced a military aid package for Ukraine worth $116 million
On December 21, the Finnish Defense Ministry announced that Finland would provide military aid worth 106 million euros ($116 million) to Ukraine. The specific details of the delivery have not been disclosed due to operational reasons and to ensure the safe delivery of the aid. However, the package has been carefully designed to address the needs of Ukraine while also considering the resource situation of Finland's Armed Forces, according to the Defense Ministry. "Finland is fully committed to supporting Ukraine in both the short and long term," stated Defense Minister Antti Hakkanen. According to the ministry, Finland has already provided military aid worth 1. 6 billion euros ($1. 76 billion) to Ukraine.
Germany has placed an order for artillery shells worth over $400 million to support Ukraine
In recent days, Germany has approved orders worth over $400 million for 155mm artillery shells for Ukraine. These orders were made through separate deals with Rheinmetall and an unidentified French company. The German army has placed an order for tens of thousands of shells for the Ukrainian armed forces under an existing framework agreement with Rheinmetall. The value of this order is at least €100 million, or $110 million, as stated in a press release by the company on December 18th. That follows a December 14 announcement that the Defense Ministry is buying 68,000 shells for Ukraine from a French armament company for €278 million.
Germany is sending additional Gepard anti-aircraft guns to Ukraine
As part of its military assistance to Ukraine, Germany has recently transferred additional equipment. This includes Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns, long-range reconnaissance drones, and ammunition. Last week, Germany also delivered a Patriot air defense missile system. On December 22nd, the German government updated the list of military aid to Ukraine, announcing the transfer of three Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft systems, along with spare parts and ammunition. The latest military aid package includes the following items: Three Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns; 30, 240 rounds of ammunition for Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns; Ammunition for Leopard 2A6 main battle tanks; Ten VECTOR long-range reconnaissance drones with spare parts; Two 8x8 HX81 tractors; Five HX81 semi-trailers; Two tractor trains 8x8 HX81; Eight Zetros trucks; 2, 500 155-mm artillery shells; 25, 536 40-mm rounds for automatic grenade launchers, and more. The list also includes two WISENT 1 demining tanks, two border patrol vehicles, and two AMPS communication protection systems for helicopters. Additionally, Germany has provided Ukraine with an unspecified quantity of medical supplies.
Ukraine has received a payment of €1. 5 billion (£1. 3 billion) from the European Union
Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal has announced that Ukraine has received the final tranche of €1. 5bn (£1. 3bn) from the EU, completing the €18bn package. On December 20th, two days prior, Ukraine received non-refundable financial assistance of EUR 150 million from the European Union (EU) as part of the "Supporting the Rapid Recovery of Ukraine" program. This program aims to restore critical infrastructure. On the same day, Lithuania provided Ukraine with a new batch of military aid, which included field equipment and dry rations. This aid is part of Lithuania's ongoing support package for Ukraine, expected to be extended until 2026.
Sweden and Denmark have announced their plans to send additional CV90 combat vehicles to Ukraine
In a recent display of support for Ukraine, the two Nordic countries have signed a joint declaration to send additional combat vehicles. As another year of repelling Russian forces comes to an end, this letter of intent, signed on Dec. 18, signifies Denmark and Sweden's commitment to utilizing their industrial capabilities to facilitate the delivery of newly produced Combat Vehicle 90 to Ukraine, as stated by the Swedish defense ministry. "The CV90 has been, and continues to be, a significant addition to Ukraine's defense since Sweden donated 50 earlier this year," stated Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jonson. This follows the signature of an earlier agreement between Stockholm and Kyiv in August, which pledged to enhance cooperation between the two allies in the production and servicing of infantry fighting vehicles. At the time, the deal was seen as a first step towards establishing joint manufacturing of CV90s in Ukraine, although Swedish executives have never commented on those plans. Under the latest agreement, the Danish government will initially contribute $264 million, and Stockholm will proceed with ordering and acquiring the infantry fighting vehicle produced by BAE-Systems Hägglunds. The exact number of vehicles and the timeline for deliveries have not been disclosed.
The UK Court has upheld the decision for Russia to compensate Ukraine's energy company, Naftogaz Group, with $5 billion over the seizure of assets in Crimea
The High Court of Justice of England and Wales has upheld a decision made on December 5th, requiring Russia to compensate Naftogaz, Ukraine's largest energy company, with $5 billion (including interest) for the seizure of the company's assets in Crimea in 2014. Naftogaz states that interest for non-payment of funds will continue to accrue until the full amount is paid. However, the court decision does not automatically grant Naftogaz the amount recognized by the court. This is because the current legal mechanisms do not allow for the transfer of frozen Russian assets to Ukraine, and Russia has so far refused to compensate Naftogaz for the damages. Nevertheless, the court decision represents the latest success in Naftogaz's strategy to recover the losses caused by Russia through a series of arbitrations worldwide.
Orban claims that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is not a war
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban claimed on December 21, during an annual press conference in Budapest, that the Russian invasion of Ukraine should not be considered a war. Hungary stands out among European countries for maintaining close ties with Russia despite its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Budapest has consistently opposed sanctions against Moscow and hindered EU support for Kyiv. "There was no declaration of war between the two countries," he said. "When Russia declares war, then there will be war. We should be happy that war was not declared because it would lead to general mobilization in Russia. I wouldn't wish this on anyone."
The Hungarian president has announced his agreement to a future meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has announced that he has accepted an invitation from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to hold a bilateral meeting in the future. This potential meeting would mark the first interaction between the two leaders since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. During an annual international news conference in Budapest on Thursday, Orbán revealed that he agreed to Zelenskyy's proposal for a future meeting. This agreement was reached during a brief conversation between the two leaders on the sidelines of Argentina's new president, Javier Milei's, swearing-in ceremony on December 10. "(Zelensky) said, 'We should negotiate,' and I told him I would be available. However, we need to clarify one question: what specifically are we discussing?" Orbán said. He added that the Ukrainian leader requested a discussion on his country's aspirations to join the European Union. The relationship between the two leaders has been tense, with Hungary repeatedly blocking EU efforts to provide financial aid to Ukraine and refusing to offer military support to its neighbor. Additionally, Orban has been opposed to Ukraine's pursuit of EU membership and is one of the few EU leaders who has not made an official trip to Kyiv, despite Ukraine's ongoing struggle against Russia's invasion.
The Slovak Prime Minister has confirmed Slovakia's intention to oppose Ukraine's admission to NATO
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has confirmed Slovakia's intention to block Ukraine's admission to NATO. Fico believes that such a move could potentially lead to World War III. It is worth noting that Fico is not alone in this stance, as Orban and potentially Holland could also join forces in opposing Ukraine's NATO membership. Fico has expressed his determination to exercise his influence over the Slovak political scene by vetoing any decisions related to this matter. At the same time, the Slovak Prime Minister is convinced that Ukraine will never join NATO. Additionally, Fico believes that Ukraine will require several years to join the European Union, but he will not oppose their accession.
Russia has summoned the Finnish ambassador over the US border accord
Russia has summoned the Finnish ambassador in Moscow in response to Finland's recent signing of a new agreement on military cooperation with the US. The deal, made on Monday, December 18, grants the US extensive access to the border area between Finland and Russia. In light of this, Moscow has announced that it will take necessary measures to counter what it perceives as aggressive decisions made by Finland and its NATO allies. Finland's decision to join NATO this year was a direct response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Analysis of Priority & Political Updates
The global show of support for Ukraine has significant political ramifications on both regional and international levels. The backing from various nations underscores the complexity of the conflict and its implications for global security dynamics. As countries vocally condemn Russia's actions and express solidarity with Ukraine, diplomatic tensions rise, potentially leading to shifts in alliances and geopolitical strategies.
The United States and its NATO allies have been particularly vocal in their support for Ukraine, signaling a unified stance against Russian aggression and a commitment to upholding international norms and territorial integrity. This collective stance amplifies diplomatic pressure on Russia, potentially leading to sanctions and other punitive measures.
Furthermore, the global support for Ukraine underscores the importance of international law and norms in addressing conflicts and maintaining a rules-based international order. It serves as a reminder that actions violating sovereignty and territorial integrity are met with widespread condemnation and potential consequences, thus influencing the calculus of nations engaged in such activities.
The political impact of global support for Ukraine extends beyond the immediate conflict, potentially affecting broader diplomatic relations and regional stability. The unity of nations in support of Ukraine could embolden other nations to rally against aggression and assert their interests through international cooperation. However, it also raises the stakes of the conflict, increasing the potential for escalation and necessitating careful diplomatic navigation to prevent a wider crisis.
Conflict Zone Updates
Over the past week, Russia has persistently employed varying aerial attack tactics to overpower Ukrainian air defenses, with the aim of inflicting maximum damage to critical infrastructure and energy facilities. Daily shelling, drone strikes, and bombing attacks have been ongoing in numerous towns, villages, and communities across Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. During this period, there have been attacks of varying durations, including the use of different types of drones and missiles. Recently, air-based missiles such as Kh-101s and Kh-555s have been launched from multiple directions and in various configurations. The Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, was in the spotlight last week. In the early morning of December 22nd, the city was targeted by a series of drone attacks from Russia, resulting in injuries to at least two individuals. This marked the sixth drone attack on Kyiv this month. Despite the successful interception and shooting down of most of the drones by Ukrainian air defenses, officials reported that the strikes hit various residential districts. One drone in particular caused a fire after hitting an apartment block in the Solomyanskyi district. However, it is important to note that the density of defenses around the capital will help mitigate the threat to Kyiv specifically, while other cities may be more vulnerable. As noted by analysts, no area within Ukraine is considered safe due to the extensive range of missiles and drones. While Ukrainian air defense systems have been successful in intercepting most of these threats, falling debris remains a significant concern. Furthermore, Ukrainian soldiers fighting in the trenches in the southern Zaporizhzhia region now face a new threat - the use of poison gas as a weapon. According to a Ukrainian combat medic, there have been nine recorded incidents in the Orikhiv area in recent weeks. Russian forces have been dropping caustic gas from drones onto Ukrainian positions, resulting in one fatality. Soldiers impacted by the gas stated that it is used to cause panic, followed by conventional shelling or drone attacks. According to a Ukrainian intelligence official, the substance deployed by the Russians was a form of CS gas, also known as tear gas. CS gas is a riot control agent and a chemical compound that can temporarily impair people's ability to function by irritating the eyes, nose, mouth, lungs, and skin. Moreover, the latest field reports suggest that Russians are arming their drones not only with gas but also with TBG-7V thermobaric rockets, which possess highly destructive potential. However, it should be noted that in addition to upgrading drone capabilities, Russia is also improving its anti-drone solutions, taking into consideration the advancements made by Ukraine in drone technology. To enhance the protection of the TOS-1A, one of the most powerful artillery systems in the Russian armed forces, Russian soldiers have implemented additional measures while deployed in Ukraine. These measures include the installation of the P-377UVM1L 'Lesochek' jamming station on the TOS-1A units. This advanced jamming station is specifically designed to counter the threats posed by loitering munitions and First-Person View (FPV) drones. In addition to this technological upgrade, the TOS-1A has also been outfitted with wire cage armor around its rocket launcher station.
To counter these threats, Ukrainian troops fighting near Bakhmut and Avdiivka have adopted a range of innovative strategies. They rely on low-cost DIY 'kamikaze' drones and even a World War II field gun to push back Russian advances. Additionally, they utilize affordable technology to evade Russia's deadly drones. Specifically, they employ low-budget drone detectors, which include handheld models costing less than $250 and more sophisticated stationary models priced upwards of $400. These cost-effective solutions have proven effective in enhancing their defense capabilities. These detectors include "Candy" for Orlans, "Salt" for scanning Russian cell signals, and "Cinnamon" for detecting popular DJI-brand drones. Each detector is priced at less than $100. Additionally, there is a type called Kara Dag, co-founded by Ukrainian tech entrepreneurs, which can detect drones up to 2. 4 miles away. It provides a vibrating alert to users and indicates the direction from which the drone is approaching. Falcons, another Ukrainian drone-detector company, also offers unique solutions. Their Eter product utilizes a multi-antenna set-up connected to a computer workstation, which accurately identifies the direction and movements of multiple enemy drones. This information is crucial for troops to make informed decisions on whether to engage or take cover, as a single anti-drone rifle may not be sufficient against a drone swarm. Additionally, the system can pinpoint the origin of the drone, enabling troops to target its operators effectively. The company is even developing a version that will synchronize the drone-detection system with attack drones, which can effectively hone in on an enemy operator's signal. According to Yuriy Ihnat, the spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force, Ukraine has set its sights on producing one million FPV drones next year. However, he also emphasized the need for the country to enhance its electronic warfare capabilities to effectively counter enemy drones. One advantage of these tools, as noted by Ihnat, is that they enable the interception of drones without the necessity of physically shooting them down. The spokesman emphasized the importance of engaging all potential capacities of domestic manufacturers in collaboration with international partners to enhance the production of EW systems. According to the latest drone technology, Ukrainian engineers have successfully developed and launched the rapid production of the Cobra fixed-wing "kamikaze" drone. This drone boasts a 300 km operational range and a 15 kg payload capacity. The engineers have utilized riveted steel construction to ensure quick and cost-effective production. Given the alarming fact that Ukraine is currently losing an average of 800 soldiers daily, it is likely that further enhancing these capabilities will be a top priority in the coming period. Another priority will be to enhance the country's air defenses. As confirmed by President Volodymyr Zelensky during a press conference on Wednesday (December 20), the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) will receive more Raytheon-manufactured Patriot systems in early 2024. These systems consist of a multi-platform network of radars, missile launch platforms, mobile generators, and command vehicles.
Air Raid Frequency Updates
In the field, having accurate and up-to-date information about air raid alerts is crucial for the safety and efficiency of personnel. Understanding the frequency, duration, and location of these alerts provides valuable insight that can significantly impact decision-making on the ground. Armed with this knowledge, personnel can plan their movements more strategically, avoiding high-risk areas during times of increased alert activity. With the help of this vital information, they can ensure safer operations while maximizing their resources effectively.
By analyzing the available information from December 18 to November 23, several key points can be observed:
In contrast to the previous week, where the highest peaks of Air Raid Alerts occurred at noon, with smaller peaks at 2 PM and 5 PM, this week had two peaks at 1 PM and 8 PM, with a smaller peak at 3 PM.
Moreover, it is worth mentioning that the majority of Air Raid Alerts typically lasted between 30 minutes and 1 hour (127 occurrences). It was rare to encounter Air Raid Alerts that lasted more than 3 hours, which only occurred 9 times.
Furthermore, it is worth noting a slight shift in the pattern of eventful days for Air Raid Alerts compared to the previous period. In the past reporting period, Thursday had the highest frequency of Air Raid Alerts, closely followed by Saturday and Sunday. However, recent data from the past week reveals a noticeable change. Wednesday has now emerged as the most eventful day, with 86 occurrences, followed by Friday and Saturday, each with 61 occurrences. On the other hand, Monday remains the day with the lowest frequency, with only 16 reported Air Raid Alerts.
Finally, it was discovered that the Dnipropetrovsk and Kherson regions had the highest concentration of Air Raid Alerts, with 41 and 39 incidents, respectively. In contrast, the Ivano-Frankivsk, Chernivtsi, and Volyn regions experienced a minimal number of Air Raid Alerts, with only 2 recorded occurrences.
Analysis of Conflict Development
Recent updates in the Ukraine conflict suggest potential shifts in tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTP), which could have far-reaching implications for the conflict's trajectory in the near future. Reports indicate a notable increase in hybrid warfare tactics, including cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns targeting both military and civilian infrastructure. This suggests an evolving strategy to undermine Ukraine's stability beyond traditional battlefield engagements.
Leadership changes have also emerged as a significant development. New announcements indicate a reshuffling of top military personnel, potentially signifying adjustments in strategic direction. Such changes may lead to alterations in operational tactics and coordination among different units. Furthermore, the influx of foreign fighters, equipment, and military advisors on both sides has the potential to introduce novel combat techniques, potentially escalating the conflict's intensity.
In terms of equipment and infrastructure developments, recent reports suggest the deployment of advanced weapon systems, including long-range artillery and anti-ship missiles, which could alter the dynamics of engagements and complicate defensive strategies. Additionally, developments in electronic warfare capabilities have the potential to disrupt communication and surveillance systems, further shaping the battlespace.
In the coming weeks and months, the conflict's course could be influenced by these developments. A mix of traditional and hybrid tactics might lead to an increasingly complex battlefield, with information warfare playing a more prominent role. Leadership changes could either introduce more aggressive approaches or open doors to diplomatic solutions. As both sides incorporate advanced weaponry and tactics, the potential for more intense and unpredictable confrontations could reshape the conflict's trajectory.
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Travel Risk Management Support: Our approach is tailored to the unique risks of travel in designated regions, including High and Extreme risk locations. We offer policy guidance and protocols for both expatriates and national staff operating in Ukraine. Our services include planning, management, and monitoring for all travel, aligned with client-specific operational needs. This covers the creation of customized Journey Management Plans, location assessments, traveler briefings, and en-route tracking to ensure personnel safety.
Security Reporting and Alerts: We offer 24/7 surveillance, alerting, and incident response, complemented by twice-daily and real-time reporting tailored to the assigned personnel and risk context. Utilizing multiple vetted information sources, our in-country operations team validates threat data to deliver a robust monitoring solution for asset protection and risk mitigation.
In-Country Security Advisory Support: Our services include comprehensive venue security assessments and close protection for travelers. Additionally, we offer crisis management consultation, intelligence analysis, cyber threat assessments, and staff training on security protocols. These functions are designed to mitigate risk and ensure operational integrity for both expatriate and national personnel.
Additional Specialized Services Support: We provide an array of adaptable support services in Ukraine, ranging from deploying security-trained drivers in both armored and lower-profile non-armored vehicles, based on conducted risk and operational assessments. Our offerings also include communications support, Technical Surveillance Countermeasures (TSCM), and other pertinent risk advisory services.
To explore how our SecurityACCESS service can offer tailored, often cost-effective support, contact the Riley Risk Team here to set up an engagement call today.