Publish Date: 02DEC2023
Security & Geopolitical Analyst: MF
Contributing Authors: CT, MSO, ML, VV
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Summary
Over the past 7 days, a series of significant events have taken place that are directly or indirectly linked to the ongoing Ukrainian conflict. These developments have captured the attention of both regional and global audiences:
The leader of Belarus has stated that the shipments of Russian nuclear weapons have been completed, causing concern in the region
Poland claims that a Russian missile entered its airspace and then proceeded into Ukraine
Zelensky visited Ukrainian positions in Avdiivka
Latvia has sent Ukraine cars confiscated from drunk drivers, with a total value of almost one million euros
A senior Defense Ministry official in Ukraine has been arrested on charges of embezzling $40 million
Over 200,000 hectares of farmland in Ukraine have been cleared of mines
The top collaborator in the Russian-occupied Donetsk Oblast has been sentenced to 15 years in jail in absentia
The number of roadblocks in the Kyiv Region will be increased from December 28 to January 6
On December 25th, the Ukrainian Cabinet submitted a draft law to the Verkhovna Rada proposing a reduction in the military conscription age from 27 to 25
As part of the World Bank project, Ukraine has received a loan of $1.34 billion
The US has sent its last military aid to Ukraine, at least for now
The UK is sending additional air defense missiles to Ukraine
The EU has proposed a debt-based solution to fund Ukraine, effectively bypassing Hungary's objections
Taiwan has expanded its sanctions against Russia and Belarus
Threat Mapping Updates
Mapping Analysis
After the Ukrainian military shot down five Russian fighter jets in three days, the Russian army responded by increasing its activity and making several confirmed advances along the front lines. Based on the assessment by ISW, Russian forces have made territorial gains in the regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia between Sunday and Tuesday. Based on geolocated footage, it has been indicated that as of Sunday, Russia has made marginal advances north of Kupyansk, as depicted on maps. The footage also reveals Russian advances to the east of Terny, a Ukrainian village situated in the Donetsk region near the Luhansk front line. Furthermore, there have been confirmed reports of Russian forces making advances along the Zaporizhzhia front in southern Ukraine. Geolocated footage published on Monday and Tuesday showed Moscow's troops advancing northwest of the city of Robotyne. They also advanced in the western part of Verbove and recaptured positions that Ukrainian troops had seized during a counteroffensive in the summer of 2023. Russian sources have claimed additional advances south of Kamianske, although this information has not been officially confirmed. In the Donetsk region, Russian forces claimed to have made marginal advances to the west and southwest of the city of Bakhmut, as well as near the village of Vesele, just northeast of Bakhmut. Geolocated footage has also confirmed Russia's minimal progress in the vicinity of Avdiivka, which has been the focal point of the war for several weeks. On the other hand, significant progress has been made by the Russian army in the city of Marinka. Geolocated footage reviewed by the ISW, along with statements from Ukrainian and Russian officials, suggests that Moscow has gained control over almost the entire city. On Monday, both Russia's Defense Ministry and President Vladimir Putin claimed victory in Marinka. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi confirmed a day later that Russia had effectively destroyed the city and that part of Kyiv's forces along the frontlines had withdrawn. However, it is important to note that fighting continues on the outskirts of Marinka.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian offensive pushed towards the city of Horlivka, but according to Russian sources, they were unsuccessful. On the other hand, despite the lack of troops and ammunition, the Ukrainians were very successful in repelling numerous Russian ground attacks and inflicting heavy losses on the enemy. For instance, on December 26, Ukrainian troops destroyed 22 tanks and eliminated 1, 010 Russian invaders, bringing the total number of eliminated Russian troops since February 24, 2022, to 354, 960. The day before, Russia lost 33 artillery systems, 31 APVs, and 19 tanks, as reported by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence. According to the investigative outlet Mediazona and BBC News Russian service, as of December 15, a total of 39, 424 Russian soldiers have been reported killed, although the actual death toll is believed to be much higher. Dmytro Lazutkin, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian 47th Mechanized Brigade, stated that Russian advances have been minimal and frequently repelled or neutralized by Ukrainian artillery. In his own words, "There are practically no Russian advances anywhere, and even if there are, they are only a few hundred meters, which our artillery eventually repels or neutralizes." Furthermore, in addition to countering Russian attacks, it is important to note that Ukrainian forces have been conducting ongoing strikes on Crimea and in the Black Sea. On December 26, they successfully targeted the Novocherkassk, a Russian naval landing ship owned by the Russian Navy. Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk has confirmed the destruction of the ship in Feodosiia and expressed gratitude to the Air Force pilots for their highly precise work. It is important to note that on the same day, the Ukrainian Air Force successfully targeted a total of 17 Russian clusters.
Priority Updates
The leader of Belarus has stated that the shipments of Russian nuclear weapons have been completed, causing concern in the region
On Monday, the President of Belarus announced that Russia has finished delivering tactical nuclear weapons to his country. This development has raised significant concerns in neighboring Poland and other countries in the region. President Alexander Lukashenko revealed during a meeting of a Moscow-led economic bloc in St. Petersburg that the shipments were completed in October. However, he did not provide specific information regarding the quantity of weapons or their deployment locations. Lukashenko has expressed that hosting Russian nuclear weapons in his country serves as a deterrent against aggression from Poland, a NATO member. Poland is providing military, humanitarian, and political support to neighboring Ukraine in its conflict with Russia's invasion and is also participating in international sanctions against Russia and Belarus.
Poland claims that a Russian missile entered its airspace and then proceeded into Ukraine
General Wieslaw Kukula reported that the missile traveled approximately 40km (25 miles) into Polish airspace early on Friday. This incident occurred simultaneously with what Ukraine has referred to as Russia's most significant day of air strikes since the start of the war. Poland's representative at the United Nations stated that Warsaw believes there is a connection between this incident and the extensive bombardment. In response, President Andrzej Duda called for an emergency security meeting after the radar detected the object.
Zelensky visited Ukrainian positions in Avdiivka
On December 29th, President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the positions of Ukraine's 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade in the town of Avdiivka amidst fierce fighting. This visit comes at a crucial time as Russia attempts to encircle the eastern town, which is located just kilometers away from the Russian-occupied Donetsk. The brigade's commander briefed President Zelensky on the operational situation on the battlefield and the status of defensive actions, as reported by the Presidential Office. During the meeting, the president discussed with the soldiers their most pressing needs, which included replenishing personnel and electronic warfare equipment. Additionally, President Zelensky presented the soldiers with state awards and expressed his gratitude for their service.
Latvia has sent Ukraine cars confiscated from drunk drivers, with a total value of almost one million euros
As of mid-December, Latvia has sent a total of 271 vehicles confiscated from drunk drivers to Ukraine, with the cars' overall value amounting to almost one million euros. On 16th February, the Latvian Parliament (Saeima) unanimously adopted amendments to the Law on Support for the Civilian Population of Ukraine. These changes now enable the free delivery of confiscated vehicles to the ownership of the Ukrainian government, serving as a means of supporting Ukrainian society. At present, documents are being prepared for the Latvian government to consider the delivery of an additional 34 vehicles to Ukraine. The estimated value of this delivery is €161, 880.
A senior Defense Ministry official in Ukraine has been arrested on charges of embezzling $40 million
According to CNN, a senior Ukrainian Defense Ministry official has been detained by the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) on allegations of embezzling 1. 5 billion Ukrainian hryvnia ($40 million) in relation to an artillery shells contract. The SBU reports that the official signed an agreement with a special export company in December of last year to purchase a wholesale batch of artillery shells. However, a more favorable supply contract was later signed directly with the same manufacturer, eliminating the need for intermediaries. The State Border Guard Service (SBU) stated that this decision significantly reduced delivery time and lowered the cost of the products. According to the SBU, the defense official extended the original, more expensive contract, resulting in a transfer of 1. 5 billion Ukrainian hryvnia ($40 million) to the accounts of a foreign intermediary firm affiliated with them. The SBU has announced that it has discovered documents that confirm the presence of illegal activity. If found guilty, the official could face up to 15 years in prison. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has stated that it is taking necessary measures to recover the funds.
Over 200, 000 hectares of farmland in Ukraine have been cleared of mines
Thanks to the efforts of government agencies and non-governmental operators, Ukrainian farmers have been able to reclaim over 200, 000 hectares of agricultural land for use this year. This achievement is a result of the diligent work carried out by sapper units in conducting priority surveys and demining operations.
The top collaborator in the Russian-occupied Donetsk Oblast has been sentenced to 15 years in jail in absentia
On December 27, the Prosecutor General's Office reported that Denis Pushilin, the head of the Russian illegal occupation administration in Donetsk Oblast, was found guilty of undermining Ukraine's territorial integrity and collaborationism. In absentia, he was sentenced to 15 years in prison, with confiscation of property. It was proven in court that Pushilin had organized a meeting of the so-called council of the Russian occupation government in Donetsk Oblast in September, which approved a so-called referendum on "joining the Russian Federation."
The number of roadblocks in the Kyiv Region will be increased from December 28 to January 6
The authorities in the capital have announced that these measures are aimed at countering sabotage activities, and they will be implemented with the involvement of the Security Service of Ukraine, the National Police, the National Guard, and the 114th separate territorial defense brigade. This information has been reported by the regional military administration. Places with high levels of crowding, such as shopping centers, supermarkets, train stations, and medical institutions, will also be subject to inspection. It is important to note that the Kyiv City State Administration previously announced military exercises taking place in Kyiv from December 25 to 28, involving units of the Armed Forces, National Police, and Patrol Police. The goal of these exercises is to enhance combat readiness and coordination among all entities responsible for the defense of the city. However, residents of Kyiv have reported that summonses are still being served at these checkpoints.
On December 25th, the Ukrainian Cabinet submitted a draft law to the Verkhovna Rada proposing a reduction in the military conscription age from 27 to 25
On December 25th, the Ukrainian Cabinet submitted a draft law to the Verkhovna Rada, proposing to reduce the military conscription age from 27 to 25. This initiative aims to enlist additional recruits. During the past week, Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, refuted earlier statements made by President Volodymyr Zelensky. Zaluzhnyi clarified that the military has not formally requested the mobilization of 500, 000 people. "The military command has not made any requests for mobilization numbers. It continues to fulfill its duty of protecting the state and makes requests for ammunition, weapons, and human resources as needed. This process is ongoing," stated Zaluzhnyi.
Political Developments
As part of the World Bank project, Ukraine has received a loan of $1. 34 billion
On December 25, the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine announced that as part of the World Bank project, Ukraine has received a loan of 1. 34 billion dollars to strengthen its administrative capacity. This amount comprises a 1. 086 billion dollar loan from the World Bank, a 190 million dollar grant from Norway, 50 million dollars in subsidies from the United States of America, and a 20 million dollar grant from Switzerland. According to the Ukrainian Ministry, these funds will be allocated for social protection in old age, payments to civil service employees during emergency situations, and other non-military expenditures.
The US has sent its last military aid to Ukraine, at least for now
On Wednesday, the Biden administration made an announcement regarding a new weapons package for Ukraine. Officials have stated that this could potentially be the last shipment from US stockpiles unless Congress approves additional funding for Kyiv's ongoing battle against Russia. The $250 million package, which includes artillery shells, air defense equipment, antiaircraft and antitank missiles, and small arms ammunition, arrives at a critical moment for Ukraine. The announcement also highlights President Biden's inability to persuade skeptical members of Congress that it is in America's best interests to prevent Moscow from gaining an advantage in the war. In recent weeks, administration officials have indicated that this weapons package, referred to as a "drawdown" from Pentagon inventories, represents their final allocation with existing funds. They are using the urgency of the funding situation to urge Congress to approve Biden's request for an additional $60 billion in relation to the conflict in Ukraine.
The UK is sending additional air defense missiles to Ukraine
The UK government has announced that it will be sending additional air defense missiles to Ukraine in response to the recent wave of air strikes launched by Russia on Friday, December 29. The Ministry of Defense has confirmed that around 200 weapons will be provided. UK Defense Secretary Grant Shapps emphasized that this package of support sends a clear message of Britain's unwavering commitment to assisting Ukraine. The delivery of these missiles aims to safeguard civilians and critical infrastructure from drone attacks and bombings.
The EU has proposed a debt-based solution to fund Ukraine, effectively bypassing Hungary's objections
According to the Financial Times, the European Union is developing a debt-based plan worth up to 20 billion euros to provide funding for Ukraine while bypassing Hungary's veto. In early December, EU leaders were unable to reach an agreement on a 50 billion euro aid package for Ukraine due to the veto from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. The new strategy involves member states issuing sovereign guarantees to the EU budget, enabling the European Commission to issue 20 billion euros in fresh debt specifically allocated for Kyiv.
Taiwan has expanded its sanctions against Russia and Belarus
On December 26, Taiwan's Economy Ministry announced the expansion of its sanctions against Russia and Belarus. This expansion includes the addition of more high-tech goods that have the potential to be used in weapon development. The updated list now includes 45 additional items, such as semiconductors and specific chemicals, which could be utilized for military purposes. Taiwan has decided to withhold export licenses for these "strategic high-tech products" from both Russia and Belarus.
Analysis of Priority & Political Updates
The global show of support for Ukraine has significant political ramifications on both regional and international levels. The backing from various nations underscores the complexity of the conflict and its implications for global security dynamics. As countries vocally condemn Russia's actions and express solidarity with Ukraine, diplomatic tensions rise, potentially leading to shifts in alliances and geopolitical strategies.
The United States and its NATO allies have been particularly vocal in their support for Ukraine, signaling a unified stance against Russian aggression and a commitment to upholding international norms and territorial integrity. This collective stance amplifies diplomatic pressure on Russia, potentially leading to sanctions and other punitive measures.
Furthermore, the global support for Ukraine underscores the importance of international law and norms in addressing conflicts and maintaining a rules-based international order. It serves as a reminder that actions violating sovereignty and territorial integrity are met with widespread condemnation and potential consequences, thus influencing the calculus of nations engaged in such activities.
The political impact of global support for Ukraine extends beyond the immediate conflict, potentially affecting broader diplomatic relations and regional stability. The unity of nations in support of Ukraine could embolden other nations to rally against aggression and assert their interests through international cooperation. However, it also raises the stakes of the conflict, increasing the potential for escalation and necessitating careful diplomatic navigation to prevent a wider crisis.
Conflict Zone Updates
As winter weather settles over Ukraine, a new phase of the war has begun. Russia is gaining momentum while Kyiv continues to defend its territory. Ukrainian military officials state that the main short-term task of the Ukrainian Army is to hold ground and inflict maximum damage on the invaders. According to Roman Kostenko, Secretary of the Parliament's National Security, Defense, and Intelligence Committee, next year's focus will be on mobilization and preparation. As Kostenko stresses, Ukraine's defense forces now require long-range missiles to target Russian HQs, warehouses, and supply routes at their operational rear. Additionally, Ukraine needs artillery rounds of different calibers for active combat operations. "We also require a significant quantity of drones of various types, along with munitions, e-warfare systems, and surface-to-air missile systems to effectively counter enemy drones and missiles," emphasized the committee secretary. Drones are especially important in this sense, considering that they have proven to be much more effective than artillery in destroying Russian military hardware. Recent data shows that in various parts of the front, artillery has had limited success, hitting either one or none of the enemy vehicles in the past two months. On the other hand, drones have proven to be significantly more effective, destroying 10 to 20 enemy vehicles, depending on the sector. Regarding this matter, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, states that the year 2024 will differ from 2023 in terms of warfare, primarily due to advancements in technology. According to him, the ongoing progress in science, technology, weapons, and military equipment is leading to a transformation in the tactics employed. To confirm his statement, he reminded that last week, the combat teams of Ukraine's Army of Drones project successfully targeted 391 Russian strongpoints. Furthermore, in the realm of new naval weapons technologies, Ukraine's Security Service has not only utilized the Sea Baby unmanned surface vessel (USV) in the Black Sea but has also deployed another naval drone known as the Mamai. In addition to its kamikaze capabilities, the Mamai is a versatile modular platform capable of accommodating a wide range of remote-controlled weapons. It is worth noting that the Mamai holds the distinction of being the fastest object in the Black Sea, reaching speeds of up to 110 kilometers per hour. Additionally, Ukraine is also set to significantly enhance its air defense as pilots undergo training on potentially game-changing F-16 fighter jets. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense announced in a recent post on X (formerly Twitter) that the initial group of pilots, who will be flying the F-16s for Kyiv, have completed a basic training program in the United Kingdom and have now progressed to training with the jets in Denmark.
On the other hand, as the year ends, the Defense Ministry of Moscow has declared victory in achieving its main goal for 2023. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu stated on Tuesday that the Kremlin's objective was to "thwart the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian armed forces," and he added that this task was "successfully completed." This was partially confirmed by Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, the commander of the Ukrainian Tavria operational and strategic grouping of troops, who stated that the year 2024 is expected to present greater challenges on the front lines compared to the current year. However, despite the Russians managing to make progress in several positions along the front line, recent successful strikes by the Ukrainians in Crimea have forced them to increase security checks in Feodosiia and other areas. Furthermore, in response to losing 3000 troops in just one week, the Russians have decided to deploy additional kamikaze drones and intensify attacks along the eastern front. Despite resulting in advancements, particularly in Marinka, the ISW noted in its assessment that Russia's likely capture of the city does not offer any operationally significant advantage unless Moscow dramatically improves its ability to conduct rapid mechanized forward movement, which they have shown no signs of doing. However, despite the significant losses and assessments by analysts, it is highly likely that Russia will continue its increased attacks, deploying reserves and equipment, similar to what they did in the fight for Avdiivka or Kupiansk. Recently, an additional 2000 troops were deployed near Kupiansk. This information has been confirmed by Ukraine's Army, which also stated that Russia has amassed a sufficient number of kamikaze drones to carry out almost daily attacks on Ukraine. Earlier, Kyiv officials had issued warnings about Moscow's accumulation of drones and missiles during the autumn, with the intention of launching a new wave of attacks in the winter. In this regard, it is important to mention that multiple locations have experienced airstrikes, drone attacks, and artillery fire in the past week. The areas affected include Hremiach in the Chernihiv region, Varvarivka, Synkivka, Ivanivka, Kupiansk, and Sobolivka in the Kharkiv region, Serebryanske Forestry and Bilohorivka in the Luhansk region, Dibrova, Novobakhmutivka, Oleksandropil, and Novomykhailivka in the Donetsk region, as well as Zmiivka and Krynyk in the Kherson region. Furthermore, Russian artillery fire has targeted approximately 100 settlements in the regions of Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Mykolaiv. Moreover, on Friday, December 29, multiple heavy attacks were carried out across Ukraine, targeting major cities, and even reaching as far as Volyn and Lviv. Kyiv and Kharkiv were also among the targeted locations. Ukrainian army officials have reported that the Russian forces used nearly all of their arsenal, except for Caliber missiles. This is believed to be the most massive air attack since the beginning of the war. Since the beginning of the war in February 2022, Moscow has launched approximately 7, 400 missiles and 3, 700 Shahed attack drones, not including the attacks on Fridays.
Air Raid Frequency Updates
In the field, having accurate and up-to-date information about air raid alerts is crucial for the safety and efficiency of personnel. Understanding the frequency, duration, and location of these alerts provides valuable insight that can significantly impact decision-making on the ground. Armed with this knowledge, personnel can plan their movements more strategically, avoiding high-risk areas during times of increased alert activity. With the help of this vital information, they can ensure safer operations while maximizing their resources effectively.
By analyzing the available information from December 24 to December 30, several key points can be observed:
In contrast to the previous week, where the highest peaks of Air Raid Alerts occurred at 1 PM and 8 PM, with a smaller peak at 3 PM, this week had a peak at 11 AM.
Moreover, it is worth mentioning that the majority of Air Raid Alerts typically lasted less than 30 minutes (128 occurrences). It was rare to encounter Air Raid Alerts that lasted more than 3 hours, which only occurred 21 times.
Furthermore, it is worth noting a slight shift in the pattern of eventful days for Air Raid Alerts compared to the previous period. In the previous reporting period, Wednesday had the highest frequency of Air Raid Alerts, closely followed by Friday and Saturday. However, recent data from the past week reveals a noticeable change. Tuesday has now emerged as the most eventful day, with 88 occurrences, followed by Friday with 83 occurrences. Conversely, Saturday had the lowest frequency, with only 36 reported Air Raid Alerts.
It was finally discovered that the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions had the highest concentration of Air Raid Alerts, with 40 and 39 incidents, respectively. In contrast, the Ivano-Frankivsk and Zakarpattia regions experienced a minimal number of Air Raid Alerts, with only 5 recorded occurrences.
Analysis of Conflict Development
Recent updates in the Ukraine conflict suggest potential shifts in tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTP), which could have far-reaching implications for the conflict's trajectory in the near future. Reports indicate a notable increase in hybrid warfare tactics, including cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns targeting both military and civilian infrastructure. This suggests an evolving strategy to undermine Ukraine's stability beyond traditional battlefield engagements.
Leadership changes have also emerged as a significant development. New announcements indicate a reshuffling of top military personnel, potentially signifying adjustments in strategic direction. Such changes may lead to alterations in operational tactics and coordination among different units. Furthermore, the influx of foreign fighters, equipment, and military advisors on both sides has the potential to introduce novel combat techniques, potentially escalating the conflict's intensity.
In terms of equipment and infrastructure developments, recent reports suggest the deployment of advanced weapon systems, including long-range artillery and anti-ship missiles, which could alter the dynamics of engagements and complicate defensive strategies. Additionally, developments in electronic warfare capabilities have the potential to disrupt communication and surveillance systems, further shaping the battlespace.
In the coming weeks and months, the conflict's course could be influenced by these developments. A mix of traditional and hybrid tactics might lead to an increasingly complex battlefield, with information warfare playing a more prominent role. Leadership changes could either introduce more aggressive approaches or open doors to diplomatic solutions. As both sides incorporate advanced weaponry and tactics, the potential for more intense and unpredictable confrontations could reshape the conflict's trajectory.
SecurityACCESS Ukraine
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Ukraine Core Capabilities
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