Publish Date: 24JAN2024
Security & Geopolitical Analyst: MF
Contributing Authors: CT, MSO, ML, VV
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Summary
Over the past 7 days, a series of significant events have taken place that are directly or indirectly linked to the ongoing Ukrainian conflict. These developments have captured the attention of both regional and global audiences:
Belarus has adopted a new military doctrine that includes the involvement of nuclear weapons
Baltic countries to build joint fortifications on borders with Russia and Belarus
A Russian Orthodox priest is facing expulsion for his refusal to pray for victory over Ukraine
Germany has delivered ammunition for Ukraine's Leopard 1 tanks
By the end of 2024, the EU will have the capacity to produce 1. 3 million shells
Secret documents on 500 facilities of the Russian Defense Ministry have been stolen by Ukrainian hackers
Russia tested an electronic warfare system in Kaliningrad
The UK and Ukraine have signed a security accord
Denmark has announced nearly $22 million in new funding for the reconstruction of Mykolaiv
The UK is urging the West to utilize frozen Russian assets to support the rebuilding of Ukraine's economy
Norway has allocated $190 million to boost defense production for its own needs, as well as to support Ukraine
Switzerland plans to allocate CHF 1. 5 billion for Ukraine's recovery efforts from 2025 to 2028
Australia has rejected Ukraine's request for helicopters
France plans to send Ukraine six Caesar self-propelled howitzers in the coming weeks
The German Parliament has voted against the transfer of long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine
The Latvian Minister of Defense has announced the creation of an "International Drone Coalition"
Slovak Prime Minister, Robert Fico, has once again expressed his opposition to Kyiv's accession to NATO
Ukraine may ban transport links with Russia for 50 years
Donald Tusk, the Prime Minister of Poland, visited Kyiv
Threat Mapping Updates
Mapping Analysis
In addition to continuously conducting drone, artillery, and missile strikes in multiple locations throughout Ukraine, including the utilization of hypersonic missiles, there are reports that Russia is preparing to initiate a new offensive in eastern and southern Ukraine once the ground freezes. This information comes from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). This large-scale offensive is expected to take place between January 12 and February 2, possibly after Ukrainian troops become exhausted from defending their positions in Avdiivka and on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast, where the Russians are consistently applying pressure. However, preliminary assessments suggest that they will not be able to achieve significant operational breakthroughs. On the other hand, the Russians are exerting significant pressure along the entire front line. On January 18 alone, there were over 110 combat clashes, with the majority of them concentrated on the Adviivka front. According to Estonian intelligence, the main aim is to cut off the supply routes to the city. The overall pressure is yielding results, as confirmed by the Russian Defense Ministry. They claim that Russian troops have successfully captured the small village of Krokhmalne in the Kharkiv direction and have regained control of the forest belt west of Yahidne. New attacks are expected in Ivanivka, as well as in Kupiansk forest and Synkivka. Additionally, Russia has made confirmed progress near Kreminna and Bakhmut, where they have increased their soldier count to approximately 80, 000. Geolocation footage from January 15 reveals that Russian troops have moved north of Dibrova, which is southwest of Kreminna. In addition, they have captured the village of Vesele in the eastern Donetsk region. There are ongoing positional battles to the west of Bakhmut, near Andriivka, and west of Horlivka. In addition, there are combat engagements near Klishchiivka, where slight advances have been made to the north of the settlement. Furthermore, the IAEA has issued a warning stating that Russian troops have planted mines around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
However, it should be noted that Russian advancements have not come without heavy casualties. On January 16th alone, the Ukrainian Defense Forces eliminated 1100 Russian invaders. The following day, they also destroyed 24 artillery systems and 21 Russian tanks. According to Ukrainian estimates, their army eliminated approximately 372, 090 Russian soldiers from February 24, 2022, to January 16, 2024. This significant loss may explain why Russia needs to enlist approximately 30, 000 soldiers each month and why their units are "constantly being replenished", as noted by one of the Ukrainian commanders. In light of a potential new wave of Russian offensive, it is important to note that Ukrainians are taking measures to prepare for such a scenario. They are attempting to construct a defensive line similar to the Russian "Surovikin line". For this purpose, the Ukrainian government has allocated approximately $466 million for the construction of fortifications. However, there is skepticism in the West regarding the effectiveness of this strategy. Meanwhile, Kyiv is anticipating additional support and relying on its western allies to continue supplying weapons and ammunition.
Priority Updates
Belarus has adopted a new military doctrine that includes the involvement of nuclear weapons
On January 19, Belarus adopted a new military doctrine that, if approved, would mark the initial move towards the deployment of nuclear weapons throughout the country. Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin stated that a dedicated chapter has been added to outline the course of action in the event of armed aggression against Belarus' allies in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Union State. According to Russian state media RIA Novosti, the doctrine still requires approval from the All-Belarusian People's Assembly, a representative body that operates alongside the parliament. The assembly is scheduled to be held in April.
Baltic countries to build joint fortifications on borders with Russia and Belarus
Drawing lessons from Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have signed an agreement to jointly create defensive fortifications along their shared border of approximately 450 miles with Russia and Belarus. The agreement, signed in Riga, Latvia, states that the objective is to deter and, if necessary, protect against any military threat.
A Russian Orthodox priest is facing expulsion for his refusal to pray for victory over Ukraine
A prominent liberal priest is facing expulsion from the Russian Orthodox Church for his refusal to read a prayer asking for God's guidance in achieving victory over Ukraine. In a verdict published on January 13th, a church court determined that Aleksiy Uminsky had violated his priestly oath and recommended his "expulsion from holy orders." The final decision now rests with Patriarch Kirill, the head of the Russian church, who is known for his strong support of President Vladimir Putin.
Germany has delivered ammunition for Ukraine's Leopard 1 tanks
On January 17, Germany handed over ammunition for Leopard 1 tanks and armored vehicles to the Ukrainian military. The federal government's website has been updated with the list of transferred equipment, which now includes an unspecified quantity of ammunition for the Leopard 1 main battle tank.
By the end of 2024, the EU will have the capacity to produce 1. 3 million shells
During his visit to Estonia, European Commissioner for Internal Market, Thierry Breton, announced that by the end of 2024, the European Union will have the capability to produce over 1. 3 million artillery shells annually. He emphasized that the EU is currently facing a dual task - providing military aid to Ukraine while also replenishing its own military stocks.
Secret documents on 500 facilities of the Russian Defense Ministry have been stolen by Ukrainian hackers
The servers of a Russian state-owned enterprise, responsible for constructing military facilities across the country, were disabled by hackers from the Blackjack group. These hackers are believed to have affiliations with the Security Service of Ukraine. Over 1. 2 terabytes of data were downloaded, including sensitive information about military facilities and project documentation from the Russian Defense Ministry. This includes weapons arsenals, missile sites, headquarters, and barracks in both Russian and captured Ukrainian territories.
Russia tested an electronic warfare system in Kaliningrad
The electronic warfare system of the Russian Federation underwent testing in the Kaliningrad region. Consequently, the global positioning system experienced disruptions in half of Poland's regions and the Suwalki corridor. Similar interference levels were detected along Poland's Baltic Sea coast, as well as in northwestern and central Poland in late December.
Political Developments
The UK and Ukraine have signed a security accord
On January 12, the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, and the British Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, signed a security accord between the two countries. Zelensky described it as an unprecedented security agreement. Additionally, the UK will provide military aid to Ukraine in the amount of 2. 5 billion pounds in 2024-2025.
Denmark has announced nearly $22 million in new funding for the reconstruction of Mykolaiv
On January 12, Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov announced that Denmark has allocated an additional $21. 9 million in funding for the reconstruction of Mykolaiv. This comes on top of the more than $100 million already earmarked by Denmark for the reconstruction of Mykolaiv Oblast in 2023. The new funds will be specifically directed towards agriculture projects, repairing damaged educational infrastructure, and strengthening the electrical grid.
The UK is urging the West to utilize frozen Russian assets to support the rebuilding of Ukraine's economy
The UK Foreign Secretary, David Cameron, has urged Western governments to utilize the frozen Russian assets of $350 billion to aid in the reconstruction of the Ukrainian economy, which has been devastated by the war with Russia. He pointed out that there are legal, moral, and political justifications for taking such action.
Norway has allocated $190 million to boost defense production for its own needs, as well as to support Ukraine
On January 17, the Norwegian government announced the allocation of $190 million to enhance defense production capacities, specifically in the area of artillery shells. Oslo has announced that it is increasing its production capacity in order to meet the demands of Norway, Ukraine, and their allies.
Switzerland plans to allocate CHF 1. 5 billion for Ukraine's recovery efforts from 2025 to 2028
Switzerland plans to allocate CHF 1.5 billion for the restoration of Ukraine in 2025-2028 within the framework of the international cooperation strategy, President of Switzerland Viola Amherd has said.
Australia has rejected Ukraine's request for helicopters
According to ABC Australia, Australia formally rejected Ukraine's request for access to a set of retired Taipan helicopters on January 18th. On January 12, the Australian Federation of Ukrainian Organizations (AFUO) made a request to the government to provide Ukraine with 45 decommissioned Taipan helicopters that were originally slated for the scrapyard. However, the government's rejection of this request has sparked protests throughout Australia. Protesters argue that it makes more sense to help a friend in need rather than polluting the environment and spending billions of dollars.
France plans to send Ukraine six Caesar self-propelled howitzers in the coming weeks
France will be providing Ukraine with six Caesar self-propelled howitzers soon, and has the ability to produce 72 more by 2024. Additionally, France is sending Ukraine 40 long-range SCALP-EG missiles and hundreds of bombs. French President Emmanuel Macron also mentioned that France is currently in the process of finalizing a security agreement, similar to the one reached between Kyiv and London. Additionally, starting from January, France will begin supplying Ukraine with 50 AASM Hammer gliding bombs per month throughout the year, as announced by the Minister of Defense of the republic.
The German Parliament has voted against the transfer of long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine
The resolution to supply Ukraine with long-range Taurus cruise missiles, put to a vote by the Christian Democratic and Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) faction, has been rejected by the Bundestag. Out of the total number of MPs, 178 supported the initiative, while 485 opposed it, with three abstentions.
The Latvian Minister of Defense has announced the creation of an "International Drone Coalition"
The Latvian Minister of Defense has announced the creation of an "International Drone Coalition," which will consist of nearly 20 countries. The primary objective of this initiative is to provide the Ukrainian Armed Forces with thousands of drones.
Slovak Prime Minister, Robert Fico, has once again expressed his opposition to Kyiv's accession to NATO
On January 20, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico made a statement suggesting that the resolution to Russia's conflict with Ukraine would involve Kyiv relinquishing some of its territory to the invaders. He also reiterated his opposition to Ukraine's NATO membership. Furthermore, he mentioned that Slovakia would exercise its veto power to prevent Ukraine's admission into NATO, halt the supply of weapons to Ukraine, and expressed the belief that Ukraine is not an independent country, but rather completely controlled and administered by the United States.
Ukraine may ban transport links with Russia for 50 years
Ukraine's Cabinet of Ministers, the country's government, plans to request the National Security and Defense Council to consider implementing sectoral economic sanctions against Russia for the next 50 years. This includes proposing a ban on all transportation links with Russia, including road, rail, air, and sea.
Donald Tusk, the Prime Minister of Poland, visited Kyiv
Prime Minister Donald Tusk traveled to Kyiv on January 22 to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Prime Minister Denys Shmygal, according to his press service.
Analysis of Priority & Political Updates
The global show of support for Ukraine has significant political ramifications on both regional and international levels. The backing from various nations underscores the complexity of the conflict and its implications for global security dynamics. As countries vocally condemn Russia's actions and express solidarity with Ukraine, diplomatic tensions rise, potentially leading to shifts in alliances and geopolitical strategies.
The United States and its NATO allies have been particularly vocal in their support for Ukraine, signaling a unified stance against Russian aggression and a commitment to upholding international norms and territorial integrity. This collective stance amplifies diplomatic pressure on Russia, potentially leading to sanctions and other punitive measures.
Furthermore, the global support for Ukraine underscores the importance of international law and norms in addressing conflicts and maintaining a rules-based international order. It serves as a reminder that actions violating sovereignty and territorial integrity are met with widespread condemnation and potential consequences, thus influencing the calculus of nations engaged in such activities.
The political impact of global support for Ukraine extends beyond the immediate conflict, potentially affecting broader diplomatic relations and regional stability. The unity of nations in support of Ukraine could embolden other nations to rally against aggression and assert their interests through international cooperation. However, it also raises the stakes of the conflict, increasing the potential for escalation and necessitating careful diplomatic navigation to prevent a wider crisis.
Conflict Zone Updates
As the war enters a new phase, the Russian army may be forming air assault brigades. These specialized units can conduct landings and reconnaissance behind Ukrainian lines, as reported by ISW. Russian sources have pointed out that this is not a new concept for the Russian military, drawing parallels to Soviet operations in Afghanistan. One Russian source specifically mentioned that air assault brigades within ground formations would be capable of conducting landings in Ukrainian near-rear areas without the need for parachutes. This would likely involve landing helicopters in these areas to rapidly deploy personnel, similar to the initial fighting for Hostomel airport near Kyiv on February 24, 2022. It is also claimed that the 49th Separate Air Assault Brigade, an air assault brigade, is already active in the Zaporizhzhia direction as part of the 58th Combined Arms Army in the Southern Military District.
Russians are also continuing to upgrade their existing weaponry. One notable improvement is the addition of the Sania EW system to the T-80BVM tanks, which are designed to jam drones. While its original purpose was to prevent unauthorized drone intrusion into confidential territories, it has now found new applications due to developments in the field. Ukrainian soldiers have also observed Russia's new thermobaric rocket launcher, the TOS-2 flamethrower system, on the eastern front. This recently deployed system is now present in the occupied part of the Luhansk region. Notably, it boasts an extended range of up to 24 kilometers. These details have been confirmed by Ukrainian military officials, who have also noted that the Russian Kh-101 missiles exhibit notable differences from those used in 2022. There is also information that Russia's Ministry of Defense has adopted a new program for the modernization of large amphibious ships. This program aims to increase their firepower with the integration of drones such as Orlan and ZALA.
On the other hand, Ukraine's electronic warfare capabilities are growing, as reported by ISW. In other words, it appears that they are effectively countering Russian strikes by disabling an increasing number of enemy missiles through the use of active countermeasures in electronic warfare. Furthermore, their air defense has achieved a string of successes against Russian air power. They have managed to destroy at least seven Russian planes since the beginning of December, including an A-50 military observation plane on January 15 and an Ilyushin Il-22 plane that operates as an airborne command post. Additionally, Ukrainian defenders have successfully neutralized Russia's Osa air defense system, a Grad multiple rocket launcher, and two Murom-M surveillance systems. They are also making improvements to their weaponry. According to Ukrainian military sources, on January 17th, there was the first successful use of a "FrankenSAM" air-defense system. Ukraine used it to shoot down a Russian drone. These hybrid systems aim to make older weapons capable of working with modern US-supplied ammunition.
Moreover, their strategy is also evolving, as evidenced by the increased attacks carried out by Ukrainian forces on Russian soil. In addition to the strikes on Kursk Oblast on January 14-15, it is worth mentioning that the pro-Ukrainian resistance has also been involved in burning railway equipment and military logistics facilities in Saratov, Yaroslavl, and Dzerzhinsk in Russia. These actions have effectively disrupted traffic in the affected regions. In addition to their ongoing attacks on Crimea, Ukrainians also targeted an oil terminal in St. Petersburg. It is worth noting that this accomplishment was made possible by utilizing a drone produced in Ukraine, which covered a distance of 1250 kilometers. The effectiveness of these attacks is already evident, as illustrated by the cancellation of the traditional Orthodox Epiphany festivities in the city of Belgorod, Russia on January 18. This decision was made due to the threat of an attack, especially following the city's experience of 17 Ukrainian shell strikes on January 14 alone. During the night of January 20-21, Ukraine's security services also targeted Russian facilities in Tula, Smolensk, and Oryol.
Air Raid Frequency Updates
In the field, having accurate and up-to-date information about air raid alerts is crucial for the safety and efficiency of personnel. Understanding the frequency, duration, and location of these alerts provides valuable insight that can significantly impact decision-making on the ground. Armed with this knowledge, personnel can plan their movements more strategically, avoiding high-risk areas during times of increased alert activity. With the help of this vital information, they can ensure safer operations while maximizing their resources effectively.
By analyzing the available information from January 13 to January 24, several key points can be observed:
In contrast to the previous week, where the highest peak of Air Raid Alerts occurred at 9 AM, this week experienced its highest peak at 2 PM. There was a slightly milder peak at 11 AM preceding it.
Moreover, it is worth mentioning that the majority of Air Raid Alerts typically lasted less than 30 minutes, with a total of 388 occurrences. It was rare to encounter Air Raid Alerts that lasted more than 3 hours, which occurred 67 times.
Furthermore, it is worth noting a slight shift in the pattern of eventful days for Air Raid Alerts compared to the previous period. In the previous reporting period, Saturday had the highest frequency of Air Raid Alerts, closely followed by Sunday and Monday. However, recent data from the past week reveals a noticeable change. Monday has now emerged as the most eventful day, with 257 occurrences, closely followed by Tuesday with 256 occurrences. In contrast, Friday had the lowest frequency with only 116 reported Air Raid Alerts. However, the overall number of Air Raid Alerts significantly increased compared to the previous week.
Finally, it was discovered that the Kharkiv region had the highest concentration of Air Raid Alerts, with a total of 155 occurrences. In contrast, the Ivano-Frankivsk and Zakarpattia regions experienced a minimal number of Air Raid Alerts, with only 20 recorded occurrences each.
Analysis of Conflict Development
Recent updates in the Ukraine conflict suggest potential shifts in tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTP), which could have far-reaching implications for the conflict's trajectory in the near future. Reports indicate a notable increase in hybrid warfare tactics, including cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns targeting both military and civilian infrastructure. This suggests an evolving strategy to undermine Ukraine's stability beyond traditional battlefield engagements.
Leadership changes have also emerged as a significant development. New announcements indicate a reshuffling of top military personnel, potentially signifying adjustments in strategic direction. Such changes may lead to alterations in operational tactics and coordination among different units. Furthermore, the influx of foreign fighters, equipment, and military advisors on both sides has the potential to introduce novel combat techniques, potentially escalating the conflict's intensity.
In terms of equipment and infrastructure developments, recent reports suggest the deployment of advanced weapon systems, including long-range artillery and anti-ship missiles, which could alter the dynamics of engagements and complicate defensive strategies. Additionally, developments in electronic warfare capabilities have the potential to disrupt communication and surveillance systems, further shaping the battlespace.
In the coming weeks and months, the conflict's course could be influenced by these developments. A mix of traditional and hybrid tactics might lead to an increasingly complex battlefield, with information warfare playing a more prominent role. Leadership changes could either introduce more aggressive approaches or open doors to diplomatic solutions. As both sides incorporate advanced weaponry and tactics, the potential for more intense and unpredictable confrontations could reshape the conflict's trajectory.
SecurityACCESS Ukraine
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Ukraine Core Capabilities
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