Publish Date: 31JAN2024
Security & Geopolitical Analyst: MF
Contributing Authors: CT, MSO, ML, VV
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Summary
Over the past 7 days, a series of significant events have taken place that are directly or indirectly linked to the ongoing Ukrainian conflict. These developments have captured the attention of both regional and global audiences:
The US is planning to station nuclear weapons in the UK
Malaysians have been spotted as mercenaries in Ukraine's Donetsk region
The website of the Ukrainian gas company has gone down due to a hacking incident
The Ukrainian Security Service has apprehended a Russian hacker who was planning cyberattacks on government websites
Ukrainian hackers have successfully carried out two cyber attacks
Ukraine is set to commence construction of four new nuclear reactors this year
Russia and Ukraine are still in dispute over the circumstances surrounding the crash of a Russian military transport plane in the border region of Belgorod
The Kremlin has ceased offering pardons to convicted recruits who are going to war
Ukraine claims to have uncovered widespread fraud in its weapons procurement
On January 24th, Polish farmers began protesting against the import of agricultural products from Ukraine
Two additional countries have joined the drone and electronic warfare coalition
Ukraine has invited Xi Jinping to participate in the peace talks
In 2024, Germany plans to transfer 80 Leopard tanks and additional IRIS-T systems to Ukraine
Greece has approved the transfer of outdated air defense missiles and anti-aircraft guns to support Ukraine's army
Threat Mapping Updates
Mapping Analysis
Over the past seven days, Russia has persistently pursued its offensive strategy to capture the Donbas region, advancing on multiple fronts. The fighting in the northeast, where the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions intersect, has been particularly intense. After seizing the village of Vesele near Bakhmut, as well as the hamlets of Krokhomalne, they have also claimed to have captured Tabaivka in the Kharkiv region. However, their main priority continues to be the city of Avdiivka. In this regard, the Russian army is executing a three-pronged attack to encircle the city. Their strategy involves attempting to bypass Ukrainian fortifications by entering the city edges through service tunnels. This method of infiltration has been attempted since October 2023. However, it finally appears that it is yielding some results. According to Russian military bloggers, despite the active resistance from Ukrainians, Moscow's forces have made a significant advance on the southern flank, specifically into the residential area of Avdiivka. While ISW characterized Russian breakthroughs as positional engagements, it is worth noting that Russians captured the Tsarskaya Okhota recreation center in the south of the town. Some claim that this represents a significant tactical gain for future operations. Meanwhile, the intensity of Russian air and artillery strikes shows no signs of relaxation. On January 28 alone, Russian artillery targeted over 100 settlements in the Cherniv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv oblasts. Moreover, in one of its recent large-scale barrages, Russia changed the composition of its attacks, possibly to put pressure on Ukraine's air defenses. Ukrainian officials detected cruise and ballistic missiles, but no one-way attack drones were found. The Russian military also used decoys. War analysts suspect that the changes in strike composition have two possible explanations: firstly, to preserve certain forces for future strikes, and secondly, to assess how Ukraine's air defenses respond to different threats and improve the ability to penetrate them.
On the other hand, considering the lack of ammunition and manpower, and the fact that their military is "visibly running on fumes," as explained by some analysts, it seems that Ukrainians are now changing their strategy. Despite still holding most of their positions and attempting to expand their foothold in certain locations, such as the Kherson front, many commentators assert that Russia will maintain significant advantages in terms of material resources, industrial capabilities, manpower, and initiative in 2024. In this regard, the new approach involves focusing on reconstitution and digging in to defend against ongoing Russian attacks. Firstly, it entails constructing a stronger defense-in-depth strategy, which will facilitate the defense of the nearly 1, 000-kilometer front line, enabling Ukraine to rotate forces, deploy its best units more effectively, and minimize the ammunition needed for defense. Ukraine has already started digging in, but these efforts are still in their early stages compared to the well-established defense-in-depth fortified positions of the Russian forces. Further strengthening of defenses, including the construction of underground bunkers and tunnels, could help offset Russia's advantage in artillery and glide bombs, while also contributing to overall consolidation. Furthermore, analysts have observed that Ukraine is likely to prioritize the review of its policies on mobilization and recruitment as part of its new strategy. This is aimed at addressing persistent challenges related to the structure and quality of its armed forces. Lastly, as Ukraine continues its collaboration with Western countries, it will strive to scale up and reform its existing training programs to enhance the combat effectiveness of its forces. This involves expanding local training initiatives, revising Western programs, integrating training materials, and finding solutions to address the growing shortage of professional military education for officers and junior leaders. According to analysts, if this overall approach is successfully realized, it has the potential to enable Ukraine to regain a necessary advantage and create an opportunity for launching large-scale offensive operations in 2025. Meanwhile, targeting the rear positions of Russian forces is likely to remain one of the top priorities for Ukrainian forces in 2024, as it has been since the beginning of the year. Given that the implementation of the new strategic approach will take time to be fully realized, and considering the current military disparity between Ukrainians and Russians, Kyiv has employed "smart warfare" tactics. These tactics involve targeting the enemy's oil and gas supply lines, as well as other strategic targets deep within Russian territory, as demonstrated several times during the past week.
Priority Updates
The US is planning to station nuclear weapons in the UK
According to the Guardian, the US is planning to station nuclear weapons in the UK for the first time in 15 years. This decision comes in response to the growing threat from Russia, and missiles could potentially be placed at RAF Lakenheath in Suffolk as a precautionary measure in case of a potential war between NATO and Russia.
Malaysians have been spotted as mercenaries in Ukraine's Donetsk region
The Ukraine National Resistance Centre has revealed that mercenaries from Malaysia were recently sighted in the temporarily occupied territories of the Donetsk region. According to the center, which is managed by the Special Operations Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Malaysians were accompanied by a translator and a former member of the "Wagner" group. In a statement, the center highlighted that the Russians persist in recruiting mercenaries from various countries around the world to support their aggressive policies.
The website of the Ukrainian gas company has gone down due to a hacking incident
On January 25th, Naftogaz, a state-owned Ukrainian oil and gas company, reported a significant cyberattack on one of its data centers.
The Ukrainian Security Service has apprehended a Russian hacker who was planning cyberattacks on government websites
The Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) has successfully apprehended a Russian hacker in the Kharkiv region. As reported by the SSU, the individual had intentions to carry out cyberattacks on Ukrainian government websites and gather intelligence to target the city of Kharkiv. The detainee was identified as a member of the Russian hacker group called 'People's Cyber Army of the Russian Federation', which is believed to be under the supervision of the Federal Security Service (FSB) of the Russian Federation.
Ukrainian hackers have successfully carried out two cyber attacks
According to the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine's Ministry of Defense, pro-Ukrainian hacktivists successfully breached the Russian Center for Space Hydrometeorology, also known as "planeta" (планета), and managed to wipe out a staggering 2 petabytes of data. The agency is affiliated with Roscosmos, Russia's space agency, and it supports various sectors including the military, civil aviation, and maritime. In another cyber attack, hackers from Ukraine's Defense Intelligence (DIU) successfully destroyed the entire IT infrastructure of IPL Consulting, a company specializing in implementing information systems in the Russian industry.
Ukraine is set to commence construction of four new nuclear reactors this year
According to Energy Minister German Galushchenko, Ukraine is planning to commence construction work on four new nuclear power reactors this summer or autumn. This initiative aims to address the energy capacity lost during the war with Russia. Two of the units, which include reactors and related equipment, will be based on Russian-made equipment that Ukraine intends to import from Bulgaria. The other two units will utilize Western technology from power equipment manufacturer Westinghouse. Galushchenko added that all four reactors will be constructed at the Khmelnytskyi nuclear power plant located in western Ukraine.
Russia and Ukraine are still in dispute over the circumstances surrounding the crash of a Russian military transport plane in the border region of Belgorod
According to Russian state media, the black boxes from the plane have been delivered to a special laboratory in Moscow for analysis. Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has demanded full transparency regarding the crash and accused Moscow of "endangering the lives of Ukrainian prisoners of war." The tragic incident resulted in the loss of all 74 individuals on board. Russia alleges that the plane was transporting 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war who were scheduled for an exchange, and claims that it was shot down by Ukrainian forces.
The Kremlin has ceased offering pardons to convicted recruits who are going to war
According to ISW, the Kremlin has reportedly stopped offering pardons to convict recruits and is making significant changes to their service terms. This is likely in response to the decreasing number of convicts suitable for recruitment into Russian force generation efforts.
Ukraine claims to have uncovered widespread fraud in its weapons procurement
According to Ukraine's security service, employees from a Ukrainian arms firm allegedly conspired with defense ministry officials to embezzle nearly $40 million. This money was originally intended to purchase 100, 000 mortar shells for the ongoing war with Russia. The SBU reported that five individuals have been charged, and one person has been detained while attempting to cross the Ukrainian border. If convicted, they could face a maximum prison sentence of up to 12 years. The ongoing battle against widespread corruption continues to be a significant challenge as Ukraine strives to secure membership in the European Union.
Political Developments
On January 24th, Polish farmers began protesting against the import of agricultural products from Ukraine
According to Polish media, on Jan. 24, Polish farmers initiated widespread protests throughout the country against the import of products from Ukraine and other non-EU countries. These protests follow a series of demonstrations and border blockades by Polish truckers over the past few months. The truckers claimed that the liberalization of permits for Ukrainian truckers had negatively impacted their domestic businesses.
Two additional countries have joined the drone and electronic warfare coalition
Sweden and the United Kingdom have recently joined the coalition of drones and electronic warfare, along with Ukraine and Latvia. This brings the total number of participants to four countries. The announcement was made by Paul Johnson, the Swedish Defense Minister, during a meeting of the Contact Group on Defense of Ukraine on January 23rd. Additionally, the UK has expressed its intention to join the coalition and become a co-leader alongside Latvia.
Ukraine has invited Xi Jinping to participate in the peace talks
Ukraine has invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to participate in peace talks, according to a top adviser to Volodymyr Zelensky. The summit, which will be attended by several world leaders, is set to take place in Switzerland, although the specific venue and date have not yet been confirmed, as reported by Sky News. Many believe that Chinese involvement in the talks could play a crucial role in bringing an end to the war. Despite maintaining a close relationship with Russia since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, China has previously expressed willingness to mediate in the conflict and stressed the importance of respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all nations.
In 2024, Germany plans to transfer 80 Leopard tanks and additional IRIS-T systems to Ukraine
On January 26, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced on the German Ministry of Defense website that Germany plans to transfer IRIS-T air defense systems and over 80 Leopard 1 A5 main battle tanks to Ukraine in 2024. Germany plans to transfer various military assets to Ukraine in 2024, including the following: IRIS-T SLM Infrared Imaging System Tail Surface Launched Medium Range air defense systems; Gepard anti-aircraft tanks; Over 80 Leopard 1 A5 main battle tanks; Additional artillery systems with over 230, 000 rounds; Armored transporters; Engineering tanks; Bridge-laying tanks; Approximately 450 armored vehicles; Demining systems; Drones; Radar systems; and Reconnaissance systems. According to Pistorius, these transfers aim to enhance Ukraine's defense capabilities and support their security efforts. The German military will also train 10, 000 Ukrainian soldiers at its training grounds this year and provide Sea King helicopters to Ukraine.
Greece has approved the transfer of outdated air defense missiles and anti-aircraft guns to support Ukraine's army
The decision was made after the United States approved the sale of modern F-35 fighters to Greece. In response, U. S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken offered Greece the option of transferring or selling weapons to Ukraine in exchange for up to $200 million in aid from Washington. Greece has made the decision to transfer outdated systems and equipment that are no longer in use by their army. Currently, Greece is equipped with Tor, Osa, S-300 air defense systems, as well as ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft systems, and maintains reserves of ammunition for these weapons systems.
Analysis of Priority & Political Updates
The global show of support for Ukraine has significant political ramifications on both regional and international levels. The backing from various nations underscores the complexity of the conflict and its implications for global security dynamics. As countries vocally condemn Russia's actions and express solidarity with Ukraine, diplomatic tensions rise, potentially leading to shifts in alliances and geopolitical strategies.
The United States and its NATO allies have been particularly vocal in their support for Ukraine, signaling a unified stance against Russian aggression and a commitment to upholding international norms and territorial integrity. This collective stance amplifies diplomatic pressure on Russia, potentially leading to sanctions and other punitive measures.
Furthermore, the global support for Ukraine underscores the importance of international law and norms in addressing conflicts and maintaining a rules-based international order. It serves as a reminder that actions violating sovereignty and territorial integrity are met with widespread condemnation and potential consequences, thus influencing the calculus of nations engaged in such activities.
The political impact of global support for Ukraine extends beyond the immediate conflict, potentially affecting broader diplomatic relations and regional stability. The unity of nations in support of Ukraine could embolden other nations to rally against aggression and assert their interests through international cooperation. However, it also raises the stakes of the conflict, increasing the potential for escalation and necessitating careful diplomatic navigation to prevent a wider crisis.
Conflict Zone Updates
As the Russians continue to apply constant pressure on the ground and from the air, seeking to break out of positional warfare and end the stalemate, and the Ukrainians adapt their strategy to the existing conditions, it is evident that technology plays a significant role in determining the outcome of battles in various locations on the front. Drones are especially relevant in this context, as their performance is continuously improving. According to a Ukrainian soldier, the proliferation of drones in warfare has created a situation where “nobody knows how to proceed”. Therefore, it is crucial to highlight that efforts are being made to find solutions.
For instance, Russian troops have been struggling to break through Ukraine's defensive lines and end the stalemate. As soon as they concentrate in sufficient numbers to launch an attack, they are promptly targeted. In other words, Ukrainians are striking any forces larger than a battalion. Even forces gathering far behind the front line were vulnerable to attacks. In this regard, it is worth mentioning that Ukrainians have even repurposed farm drones as weapons, equipping them with a PKM 7. 62mm machine gun and a Bullspike-AT grenade launcher. Furthermore, these drones are becoming more affordable and efficient, as they have proven to be capable of bypassing Russian air defenses more easily. One of the innovations is the use of "flocks" of FPV drones, led by a "queen" drone, to attack Russian positions. According to a Russian soldier, the Ukrainians are now deploying a "large wing with a repeater drone queen" that broadcasts a signal to a group of smaller FPV drones flying beneath it. According to certain media outlets, this tactic enabled Ukrainian drone operators to "land and wait" with their smaller drones, thus saving battery life.
These advancements have provided the Ukrainian army with the ability to bypass Russian defenses and cause significant damage within Russian territory. As reported by The Guardian, the evidence of a recent and ongoing assault on a vital sector of Russia's economy could not be ignored last week. One notable incident took place on January 24, when a drone targeted the Tuapse oil refinery in southern Russia along the Black Sea, leading to the temporary closure of the airport in Sochi. These attacks are part of a growing asymmetrical campaign by Kyiv to cripple the industry and deprive Moscow of the billions of dollars in revenue it uses to fund its war. Furthermore, Ukrainians are also planning to introduce a new underwater drone under the project FURY (First Ukrainian Robotic Navy). This cutting-edge drone is expected to maintain the technological advantage that Ukraine currently holds in the Black Sea.
On the other hand, the Russians are responding by making their own advancements in weapons technology. Firstly, they have recently installed an Anti-Tank Guided Missile (ATGM) on an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV). More specifically, they have armed a drone with the 9K111 Fagot ATGM. Furthermore, Russia has started using new poison gas grenades, specifically RG-VO, which contain chloroacetophenone. This gas is an asphyxiant and is prohibited by the Geneva Protocol for the Prohibition of the Use of Asphyxiating, Poisonous, or Other Gasses, and of Bacteriological Methods of Warfare. According to the Ukrainian Centre for the Research of Trophy and Prospective Weapons and Military Equipment of the General Staff of the Armed Forces, if a grenade of this type were to be thrown into a room or bunker, those inside would perish within five minutes. In addition, Russia has deployed another missile carrier to the Black Sea, equipped with a total volley of up to 20 Kalibr missiles. This move aims to strengthen its defense in an area that has recently experienced an increased number of Ukrainian attacks.
Air Raid Frequency Updates
In the field, having accurate and up-to-date information about air raid alerts is crucial for the safety and efficiency of personnel. Understanding the frequency, duration, and location of these alerts provides valuable insight that can significantly impact decision-making on the ground. Armed with this knowledge, personnel can plan their movements more strategically, avoiding high-risk areas during times of increased alert activity. With the help of this vital information, they can ensure safer operations while maximizing their resources effectively.
By analyzing the available information from January 24 to January 31, several key points can be observed:
In contrast to the previous week, where the highest peak of Air Raid Alerts occurred at 2 PM, this week witnessed the highest peak at 1 PM, followed by another peak at 8 PM.
Moreover, it is worth mentioning that the majority of Air Raid Alerts typically lasted between 30 minutes and one hour, with a total of 147 occurrences. It was rare to encounter Air Raid Alerts that lasted between 2. 5 and 3 hours, which occurred 7 times.
Furthermore, it is worth noting a slight shift in the pattern of eventful days for Air Raid Alerts compared to the previous period. In the previous reporting period, Monday had the highest frequency of Air Raid Alerts, closely followed by Tuesday. However, recent data from the past week reveals a noticeable change. Tuesday has now emerged as the most eventful day, with 73 occurrences, closely followed by Wednesday with 64 occurrences. In contrast, Thursday had the lowest frequency, with only 18 reported Air Raid Alerts.
Finally, it was discovered that the Kharkiv region had the highest concentration of Air Raid Alerts, with a total of 37 occurrences. In contrast, the Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk regions experienced a minimal number of Air Raid Alerts, with only 3 recorded occurrences each.
Analysis of Conflict Development
Recent updates in the Ukraine conflict suggest potential shifts in tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTP), which could have far-reaching implications for the conflict's trajectory in the near future. Reports indicate a notable increase in hybrid warfare tactics, including cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns targeting both military and civilian infrastructure. This suggests an evolving strategy to undermine Ukraine's stability beyond traditional battlefield engagements.
Leadership changes have also emerged as a significant development. New announcements indicate a reshuffling of top military personnel, potentially signifying adjustments in strategic direction. Such changes may lead to alterations in operational tactics and coordination among different units. Furthermore, the influx of foreign fighters, equipment, and military advisors on both sides has the potential to introduce novel combat techniques, potentially escalating the conflict's intensity.
In terms of equipment and infrastructure developments, recent reports suggest the deployment of advanced weapon systems, including long-range artillery and anti-ship missiles, which could alter the dynamics of engagements and complicate defensive strategies. Additionally, developments in electronic warfare capabilities have the potential to disrupt communication and surveillance systems, further shaping the battlespace.
In the coming weeks and months, the conflict's course could be influenced by these developments. A mix of traditional and hybrid tactics might lead to an increasingly complex battlefield, with information warfare playing a more prominent role. Leadership changes could either introduce more aggressive approaches or open doors to diplomatic solutions. As both sides incorporate advanced weaponry and tactics, the potential for more intense and unpredictable confrontations could reshape the conflict's trajectory.
SecurityACCESS Ukraine
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Ukraine Core Capabilities
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