Publish Date: 07FEB2024
Security & Geopolitical Analyst: MF
Contributing Authors: CT, MSO, ML, VV
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Summary
Over the past 7 days, a series of significant events have taken place that are directly or indirectly linked to the ongoing Ukrainian conflict. These developments have captured the attention of both regional and global audiences:
Ukraine has informed the White House about its plan to dismiss the top commander
The corruption index shows that Ukraine has improved, while Russia has worsened in 2023
207 Ukrainian prisoners have returned home from Russian captivity
Poland has issued a navigational warning in response to "unplanned military actions" occurring along its border with Russia and Belarus
The World Court has ruled in favor of Kyiv in the genocide case
Canada is considering the possibility of transferring CRV7 rockets to Ukraine
Bulgaria and Estonia are assisting Ukraine with military support, including armored personnel carriers and Javelin anti-tank missiles
Zelensky has replaced the governor of Zaporizhzhia Oblast
EU leaders have reached an agreement to provide Ukraine with €50 billion of reliable financial support until 2027
China has advised Ukraine to be careful about listing Chinese companies as "sponsors of war"
Russia strongly condemns Ecuador's decision to give Russian military equipment to the US for Ukraine
Germany has delivered IRIS-T anti-air missiles, armored vehicles, and other equipment to Ukraine
The Bundestag has approved €7. 6 billion in military aid to Ukraine for 2024
A North Korean delegation is set to visit Russia on February 13
Threat Mapping Updates
Mapping Analysis
Since the beginning of February, the Russians have been pressing along the entire front line, focusing on several strategic locations. Heavy fighting is taking place in all areas of the Kupiansk front, with Russian forces engaging in high-intensity assault operations and deploying new reserves. According to Forbes, Russia has amassed 500 tanks, over 600 fighting vehicles, hundreds of howitzers, and at least 40, 000 troops for the attack on Kupiansk. Ukrainian officials believe that Russia's main aim is to retake a significant portion of Kharkiv Oblast. The goal is everything east of the nearest major river. As they point out, Moscow's plan is to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, as well as a portion of Kharkiv up to the Oskil River, by March 2024. In this respect, it is important to state that Russia has also deployed over 70, 000 soldiers on the east bank of the Dnipro River, specifically in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. However, according to Nataliia Humeniukm, a spokesperson for Ukraine's Southern Operational Command, not all of the 70, 000 Russian troops and military equipment are deployed directly on the front. Some of them are stationed in the deeper rear, and Russia pulls them up as an additional resource. Russia's Dnepr Forces, fighting on the east bank, have been experiencing frequent changes in their numbers and composition due to significant losses. According to sources, each assault group in the area reportedly loses up to 70% of its personnel in every ground attack. However, Ukrainian military officials have reported that the situation on the east bank remains challenging for Ukrainian troops as well. One of the main difficulties is the fluctuating dynamics of Russian assaults, which complicates combat planning. Furthermore, the Russians are continuing their air strikes, targeting not only military positions but also civilian areas and critical infrastructure. For instance, in the past week alone, the central Poltava region has been targeted twice in two days with Iskander missiles. Additionally, on the morning of February 7, Russia launched another large-scale missile and drone attack on Kyiv, Lviv, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv oblasts.
On the other hand, Ukrainians are making efforts to maintain their defense lines and have also amassed a significant force near Kupiansk. This force includes approximately 10 Ukrainian brigades, supported in the north by the 3rd Tank Brigade and in the south by the 4th Tank Brigade. They are responsible for defending Kupiansk and the surrounding settlements, boasting a substantial presence of around 20, 000 troops, as well as a large number of tanks, fighting vehicles, and howitzers. However, sources indicate that the main problem for Ukrainians is the shortage of ammunition. To put things into perspective, while Ukrainians fire around 2000 shells daily, Russian forces reportedly fire up to 10, 000 shells a day, largely due to a consistent supply of ammunition from North Korea. As a result, Russia's superior firepower enables them to concentrate their artillery without much concern for Ukrainian counterbattery fire, allowing them to target population centers. According to ISW, shortages and delays in artillery and western security assistance may create uncertainty in Ukrainian operational plans. This situation could prompt Ukrainian forces to conserve resources, which might lead to tough decisions about prioritizing certain sectors of the front over others, especially where limited territorial setbacks would be least damaging. However, to compensate for shortfalls in artillery ammunition, the Ukrainians are increasingly relying on the use of drones. However, to compensate for shortages in artillery ammunition, the Ukrainians are increasingly relying on the use of drones. They are using thousands of drones per day along the 600-mile front. Their focus remains on Crimea, as well as targeting energy and military infrastructure by increasing strikes on Russia's deep rear.
Priority Updates
Ukraine has informed the White House about its plan to dismiss the top commander
According to The Washington Post, the Ukrainian government has informed the White House of its intention to dismiss General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the top military commander responsible for overseeing the war against Russian occupation forces. This decision comes after disagreements between General Zaluzhnyi and President Volodymyr Zelensky regarding military strategy and other matters. It is also mentioned that the process of relieving Zaluzhnyi of his post as the commander-in-chief of Ukraine's armed forces is currently on hold as officials consider who should replace him.
The corruption index shows that Ukraine has improved, while Russia has worsened in 2023
Transparency International's 2023 corruption perception index revealed that Russia's score has dropped to its lowest in years, while Ukraine's score has improved, continuing a decade-old trend. According to the recently published index, which covers 180 countries, Ukraine has made significant progress, moving from being the 144th least corrupt country in 2013 to the 104th position last year. Moreover, Ukraine's score has increased from 25 points to 36 over this period, with a higher number indicating reduced corruption. In comparison, Russia's ranking went from being the 127th least corrupt country in 2013 to the 141st in the span of 10 years, with its score dropping from 28 to 26. As of 2022, Russia is ranked 137th with a score of 28.
207 Ukrainian prisoners have returned home from Russian captivity
President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that 207 Ukrainian prisoners have been successfully returned home from Russian captivity. The group included 180 privates and sergeants, along with 27 officers from various branches of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, National Guard, Border Guard, and National Police. The update follows earlier news in January, where 230 Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) had been brought back home in the largest prisoner exchange since February 2022.
Poland has issued a navigational warning in response to "unplanned military actions" occurring along its border with Russia and Belarus
The Operational Command of the Polish Armed Forces has issued a warning about a potential increase in military aviation activity in the eastern part of the country, near the borders with Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine, from February 5 to March 5. This information was shared by the Operational Command of the Polish Armed Forces on the social network X.
The World Court has ruled in favor of Kyiv in the genocide case
On February 2nd, the World Court issued a ruling on the case brought by Ukraine against Russia. The case accuses Russia of violating international law by accusing Kyiv of genocide. Ukraine filed the case with the International Court of Justice shortly after Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. While the judges did consider some of Russia's objections, they also granted Ukraine's request for the court to rule that there is no credible evidence supporting the claim that Ukraine is committing genocide in eastern Ukraine, in violation of the Genocide Convention.
Canada is considering the possibility of transferring CRV7 rockets to Ukraine
The federal Conservatives are demanding that the Liberal government donate tens of thousands of surplus CRV7 air-to-ground rockets to Ukraine. According to Canadian media outlet CBC, these rockets are currently slated for disposal. The statement highlighted that the Canadian Armed Forces possess a stockpile of 83, 303 CRV7 rockets, which were decommissioned in the early 2000s. The Department of National Defense has acknowledged the existence of these rockets and is considering them as part of a potential future military donation package.
Bulgaria and Estonia are assisting Ukraine with military support, including armored personnel carriers and Javelin anti-tank missiles
Bulgaria has started sending 100 armored personnel carriers from the warehouses of the Ministry of Internal Affairs to Ukraine. In November 2023, Bulgaria's National Assembly ratified an intergovernmental agreement between Sofia and Kyiv that governs the supply of 100 decommissioned armored personnel carriers from the Bulgarian Ministry of Internal Affairs to Ukraine. Meanwhile, on February 3rd, the Estonian Defense Ministry delivered a latest package of Javelin anti-tank missiles, ammunition, and other military aid to Ukraine. The package, worth 80 million euros ($86 million), was approved in December. It also includes machine guns, various vehicles, vessels, and diving equipment.
Zelensky has replaced the governor of Zaporizhzhia Oblast
On February 4, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the appointment of Ivan Fedorov as the new governor of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Fedorov, who previously served as the mayor of the now-occupied city of Melitopol in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, will be replacing Yurii Malashko. The President's Office also issued a separate decree notifying of Malashko's dismissal.
Political Developments
EU leaders have reached an agreement to provide Ukraine with €50 billion of reliable financial support until 2027
At the special meeting of the European Council on February 1st, all 27 EU leaders agreed on a €50bn (£42bn; $54bn) aid package for Ukraine. The deal was made possible after Hungary stopped blocking it, ensuring regular and predictable financial support for Ukraine until 2027. This support, known as the "Ukraine Facility," will provide up to €50 billion in grants and highly concessional loans. The crucial funding will enable Ukraine to maintain its administration, cover salaries and pensions, and ensure the provision of essential public services, all while defending itself against Russia's aggression.
China has advised Ukraine to be careful about listing Chinese companies as "sponsors of war"
According to Reuters, on February 1st, China expressed concern to Ukraine about the inclusion of 14 Chinese companies on Ukraine's "international sponsors of war" list. The report, citing unnamed Ukrainian sources, stated that China warned that the move could potentially harm relations between the two countries. The "international sponsors of war" list, created by Ukraine's National Agency on Corruption Prevention (NACP) as a powerful reputational tool, aims to encourage international businesses to exit Russia and diminish Moscow's financial capability to sustain its war against Ukraine. The list includes nearly 50 international companies, with the largest number hailing from China.
Russia strongly condemns Ecuador's decision to give Russian military equipment to the US for Ukraine
Russia's foreign ministry strongly criticized Ecuador's decision to transfer Russian-made military equipment to the United States for use in Ukraine, deeming it a "reckless" violation of their contract, as reported by the RIA news agency. The Ecuadorian government had previously announced its acceptance of a proposal from Washington to exchange what they referred to as "Ukrainian and Russian scrap metal" for advanced U. S. equipment valued at $200 million.
Germany has delivered IRIS-T anti-air missiles, armored vehicles, and other equipment to Ukraine
Germany, initially criticized for slow aid delivery to Ukraine, is now the second-largest provider of military equipment after the U. S. As of December 2023, Germany has committed over 17 billion euros ($18. 4 billion) in military aid to Ukraine. The latest delivery of military equipment from Germany to Ukraine included IRIS-T missiles, APCs, all-terrain armored vehicles, artillery ammunition, mine plows, mine-clearing tanks, a naval mine clearance system, a Satcom surveillance system, and other equipment.
The Bundestag has approved €7. 6 billion in military aid to Ukraine for 2024
Members of the German Bundestag have approved the state budget for 2024 in its second and third reading. According to an Ukrinform correspondent, as many as 388 MPs of the ruling coalition voted in favor, while 279 MPs voted against. The German government's spending for this year is projected at EUR 476. 81 billion, with net borrowings expected to amount to EUR 39. 03 billion. The budget also includes approximately EUR 7. 6 billion for military assistance to Ukraine.
A North Korean delegation is set to visit Russia on February 13
On February 13, a delegation from North Korea will visit the lower house of Russia's parliament. According to Reuters, lawmaker Kazbek Taysaev also mentioned that a Russian parliamentary delegation is planning to travel to North Korea in March.
Analysis of Priority & Political Updates
The global show of support for Ukraine has significant political ramifications on both regional and international levels. The backing from various nations underscores the complexity of the conflict and its implications for global security dynamics. As countries vocally condemn Russia's actions and express solidarity with Ukraine, diplomatic tensions rise, potentially leading to shifts in alliances and geopolitical strategies.
The United States and its NATO allies have been particularly vocal in their support for Ukraine, signaling a unified stance against Russian aggression and a commitment to upholding international norms and territorial integrity. This collective stance amplifies diplomatic pressure on Russia, potentially leading to sanctions and other punitive measures.
Furthermore, the global support for Ukraine underscores the importance of international law and norms in addressing conflicts and maintaining a rules-based international order. It serves as a reminder that actions violating sovereignty and territorial integrity are met with widespread condemnation and potential consequences, thus influencing the calculus of nations engaged in such activities.
The political impact of global support for Ukraine extends beyond the immediate conflict, potentially affecting broader diplomatic relations and regional stability. The unity of nations in support of Ukraine could embolden other nations to rally against aggression and assert their interests through international cooperation. However, it also raises the stakes of the conflict, increasing the potential for escalation and necessitating careful diplomatic navigation to prevent a wider crisis.
Conflict Zone Updates
According to Valerii Zaluzhnyi's opinion, Ukraine should prioritize three main areas in 2024. Last week, he suggested that the Ukrainian army needs to establish a system to equip its forces with high-tech assets, adopt a new philosophy of training and warfare that takes into account limitations in resources, and expedite the mastery of new combat capabilities. Essentially, Ukraine's goal should be to seize the moment and maximize its acquisition of the latest combat capabilities, enabling Kyiv to minimize resource allocation while inflicting maximum damage on the enemy. Zaluzhnyi also suggests that drones and unmanned systems offer Ukraine the best way to avoid being drawn into a positional war, where it lacks the advantage. He emphasizes the need for constant improvements in defense systems and countermeasures to address Russia's use of new technology. As he points out, the challenge for Ukraine's Armed Forces is to create a completely new state system of technological rearmament. In this regard, it should be noted that Ukraine's military intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, has already hinted at the army's preparation to increase the tempo of strikes on Russian critical infrastructure, with a focus on deep rear and Crimea. He emphasized that the target should include "all major critical infrastructure facilities and military infrastructure of the Russian Federation." The attack on Volgograd oil refinery, the largest oil refinery in southern Russia, on February 3rd, or the attack on the Nizhny Novgorod region using fixed-wing drones operating at an exceptionally low altitude two days earlier, can be seen as examples. As noted by a Ukrainian soldier fighting on the edge of Avdiivka, the absence of artillery has practically compelled soldiers to enhance their drone shooting skills beyond the usual, resulting in a 250 percent increase in the accuracy of drone attacks. Moreover, the constant attacks on Crimea, especially the use of new sea drones, have also proven to be highly effective. The sinking of the Russian Tarantul-III class missile corvette Ivanovets on January 1st, accomplished through the use of Magura V5 drones, is just one more example of this innovative approach. According to Budanov, Ukraine successfully utilized six Magura multi-purpose surface vessels (USVs) to sink a Russian warship. He stated that all six units accurately hit the target, causing significant damage to the ship's hull and resulting in its subsequent sinking. On February 1st, Ukrainians also targeted the Belbek airfield. However, Ukraine is not only focused on developing offensive capabilities but also on upgrading its defensive capacities. In addition to recently implementing a nationwide electronic warfare system called Pokrova, which has the capability to disrupt satellite navigation, Kyiv's counterintelligence activities have also been increased in the past week. Namely, on February 6, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) announced the successful neutralization of an espionage network. They apprehended five former and current Ukrainian intelligence officers who were involved in spying for Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB). According to a press release from the SBU, it has been revealed that these officers were assigned by the Kremlin to gather and transfer information about Ukrainian forces and energy facilities to Russia. It has been discovered that they were collaborating with an FSB handler based in occupied Crimea. Among them are former officials of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense (HUR), the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine (SZRU), and an employee of the regional SBU department.
On the other hand, Russians seem to have their own specific response to this development. In addition to continuing and increasing pressure from the air and ground, they are also set to unleash their "most lethal" artillery against Ukraine. Namely, the Russian Ministry of Defense recently announced that the first batch of the newest self-propelled artillery complex, 2S35 "Coalition-SV" (or Koalitsiya-SV), is in the final stage of production. Furthermore, the Ministry has highlighted a significant increase in the production volume of self-propelled artillery units, which has grown sixfold compared to 2022. Moreover, they are actively upgrading their electronic warfare capabilities. The commander of the Estonian Defense Forces has expressed concerns that the rise in GPS jamming incidents across Eastern Europe is likely attributed to Russia. Additionally, cyber attacks from their side are becoming more frequent and sophisticated. As explained by experts at Securonix, the malicious campaign conducted by Russian hacktivists employs a newly discovered SUBTLE-PAWS PowerShell-based backdoor to infiltrate and compromise targeted systems. This type of backdoor allows threat actors to gain unauthorized access, execute commands, and maintain persistence within compromised systems. The attack methodology involves distributing a malicious payload through compressed files delivered via phishing emails. The malware is then distributed and moves laterally through USB drives, eliminating the need for direct network access. Experts note that SUBTLE-PAWS stands out due to its "fairly exclusive" use of off-disk/PowerShell stagers for execution, avoiding traditional binary payloads. Additionally, it employs multiple layers of obfuscation and evasion techniques.
Air Raid Frequency Updates
In the field, having accurate and up-to-date information about air raid alerts is crucial for the safety and efficiency of personnel. Understanding the frequency, duration, and location of these alerts provides valuable insight that can significantly impact decision-making on the ground. Armed with this knowledge, personnel can plan their movements more strategically, avoiding high-risk areas during times of increased alert activity. With the help of this vital information, they can ensure safer operations while maximizing their resources effectively.
By analyzing the available information from February 1 to February 7, several key points can be observed:
In contrast to the previous week, where the highest peak of Air Raid Alerts occurred at 1 PM, followed by another peak at 8 PM, this week witnessed the highest peak at 12 AM.
Moreover, it is worth mentioning that the majority of Air Raid Alerts typically lasted between 30 minutes and one hour, with a total of 150 occurrences. It was rare to encounter Air Raid Alerts that lasted between 2. 5 and 3 hours, which only occurred 4 times.
Furthermore, it is worth noting a slight shift in the pattern of eventful days for Air Raid Alerts compared to the previous period. In the previous reporting period, Tuesday had the highest frequency of Air Raid Alerts, closely followed by Wednesday. However, recent data from the past week reveals a noticeable change. Wednesday has now emerged as the most eventful day, with 95 occurrences. In contrast, Sunday had the lowest frequency, with only 12 reported Air Raid Alerts.
Finally, it was discovered that the Kharkiv region had the highest concentration of Air Raid Alerts, with a total of 38 occurrences. In contrast, the Volyn and Kyiv regions experienced a minimal number of Air Raid Alerts, with only 4 recorded occurrences each.
Analysis of Conflict Development
Recent updates in the Ukraine conflict suggest potential shifts in tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTP), which could have far-reaching implications for the conflict's trajectory in the near future. Reports indicate a notable increase in hybrid warfare tactics, including cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns targeting both military and civilian infrastructure. This suggests an evolving strategy to undermine Ukraine's stability beyond traditional battlefield engagements.
Leadership changes have also emerged as a significant development. New announcements indicate a reshuffling of top military personnel, potentially signifying adjustments in strategic direction. Such changes may lead to alterations in operational tactics and coordination among different units. Furthermore, the influx of foreign fighters, equipment, and military advisors on both sides has the potential to introduce novel combat techniques, potentially escalating the conflicts' intensity.
In terms of equipment and infrastructure developments, recent reports suggest the deployment of advanced weapon systems, including long-range artillery and anti-ship missiles, which could alter the dynamics of engagements and complicate defensive strategies. Additionally, developments in electronic warfare capabilities have the potential to disrupt communication and surveillance systems, further shaping the battlespace.
In the coming weeks and months, the conflict's course could be influenced by these developments. A mix of traditional and hybrid tactics might lead to an increasingly complex battlefield, with information warfare playing a more prominent role. Leadership changes could either introduce more aggressive approaches or open doors to diplomatic solutions. As both sides incorporate advanced weaponry and tactics, the potential for more intense and unpredictable confrontations could reshape the conflict's trajectory.
SecurityACCESS Ukraine
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SecurityACCESS Ukraine Video
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