Publish Date: 14FEB2024
Security & Geopolitical Analyst: MF
Contributing Authors: CT, MSO, ML, VV
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Summary
Over the past 7 days, a series of significant events have taken place that are directly or indirectly linked to the ongoing Ukrainian conflict. These developments have captured the attention of both regional and global audiences:
Zelensky appoints Oleksandr Syrsky as new Commander in Chief, bringing changes to Security Council and Supreme Commander-in-Chief Headquarters
The US Senate has passed a $95. 3 billion aid package for Ukraine and Israel
One hundred Ukrainians have been released from Russian captivity
Baykar, Turkey's drone maker, has commenced the construction of a new plant in Ukraine
Ukraine set to acquire additional NASAMS air defense systems
F-16s were deployed in Romania after a Russian drone attack on the Odesa Oblast
According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russian forces are utilizing Starlink technology in the occupied territories
French security experts have identified a Moscow-based disinformation network
The EU is preparing new sanctions against foreign companies that provide assistance to Russia in the war
Zelensky and Borrell met in Kyiv to discuss security cooperation and the delivery of ammunition
Ukrainian lawmakers have passed the first reading of the mobilization bill
Russia warns Argentina that sending Russian helicopters to Ukraine is unacceptable
The EU has agreed on new measures to isolate frozen Russian funds
Threat Mapping Updates
Mapping Analysis
As the anniversary of the Russian invasion on Ukraine approaches, Russia continues to exert pressure on the frontline, both from the ground and from the air. Over the past 7 days, Russian airstrikes have targeted various settlements in Ukraine, including Yablunivka (Sumy Oblast), Veterynarne, Okhrymivka, Mala Vovcha, Pishchane, and Kyslivka (Kharkiv Oblast), Oleksandropil, Vuhledar, and Staromaiorske (Donetsk Oblast), as well as Novodarivka and Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia Oblast). Additionally, there have been reports of airstrikes in major cities such as Kharkiv, Kyiv, and southern Ukraine, with both military and civilian infrastructure being targeted. Their artillery affected over 140 cities, towns, and villages in the Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv oblasts. Pressure from the ground is exerted in the direction of Lyman and Bakhmut, as well as east of Kupiansk and the Oskil River, where the so-called Storm Z units (soldiers recruited from prison) are deployed. However, the focus remains on Avdiivka, where Russian forces are steadily making gains. The city continues to witness some of the most intense fighting as Russian troops advance from the north towards the town center. Their objective is to gain control over the logistical routes that supply Ukrainian units on the northern flank. The maps show a series of recent Russian advances, placing Moscow fighters in control of part of the railway line just north of the town's station. Additionally, the maps suggest that Russian forces are now only a few hundred meters away from the main supply route into town. According to Ukrainian military officials, in addition to deploying large numbers of troops in the battle for Avdiivka, Russians are heavily relying on drone attacks. For instance, on a single day, it was recorded that Russian UAVs dropped around 70 bombs on Ukrainian brigade positions in the town. The focus on Avdiivka exists because the town holds both strategic value and high symbolic significance. Kremlin decision-makers are aware that if Russian troops were to successfully capture the city, it would boost morale and self-confidence, providing an incentive to continue their efforts and strive for larger gains. Additionally, it would serve as an impetus for Vladimir Putin in the upcoming elections.
On the other hand, despite claims by some analysts that the fall of Avdiivka is inevitable, Ukrainian defenders are still able to successfully deliver supplies to the town. Commander Oleksandr Tarnavskyi of the Tavriia Operational Strategic Group has stated that they are also able to rotate fresh fighters into the battle and establish additional firing positions. This, he emphasized, allows them to provide an appropriate response to the enemy's actions. Moreover, in contrast to his predecessor, who was planning to evacuate the city and regroup the forces in the rear line of defense, the new Commander in Chief of the Ukrainian Army, Oleksandr Syrsky, has made the decision to attempt to defend and retain the city. Despite the potential risks involved, considering the high symbolic significance of Avdiivka and the determined efforts of Russia to capture the town, defending it would hold great importance for Kyiv. It would not only serve as a much-needed morale boost for the Ukrainian troops but also for the civilian population. In addition to strengthening the defense lines along the front, Ukrainians continued to carry out strikes in the Russian deep rear and in Crimea. For instance, there have been recent incidents where Russian radar stations in the Black Sea were targeted and destroyed using kamikaze drones. On February 9, the Security Service of Ukraine carried out strikes on the Ilsky and Afipsky oil refineries in Krasnodar Krai, once again utilizing drones. According to various sources, the attack on the Ilsky oil refinery resulted in a large fire and impacted the primary processing unit, which has a capacity of 3. 6 million tons of oil per year. The cost of such a unit is US$50 million. In addition to these activities, the new Ukrainian Commander in Chief has expressed that one of his primary tasks in the upcoming period will be to develop “clear and detailed plans” for all military administrative bodies. This planning will take into consideration “the needs of front-line units regarding the new weaponry provided by allies”. In other words, the main focus will be to address logistics issues and ensure a fair redistribution of Western-provided arms, prioritizing the zero line.
Priority Updates
Zelensky appoints Oleksandr Syrsky as new Commander in Chief, bringing changes to Security Council and Supreme Commander-in-Chief Headquarters
President of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky, has introduced decrees (No. 67 and No. 68 on February 10) that bring changes to the composition of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief Headquarters and the National Security and Defense Council. Specifically, he has made changes to the composition of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief Headquarters. Olexander Syrsky has been appointed as the new Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, replacing Valery Zaluzhnyi. In Decree No. 67, Zaluzhnyi has been expelled from the Headquarters. Furthermore, Zelensky has included Syrsky in the National Security and Defense Council, while removing Valery Zaluzhnyi and former Minister of Veterans Affairs Yulia Laputina through another decree. On February 11, a day later, he announced four new high-level military appointments on his website. These appointments included the commanders of the Ground Forces, Territorial Defense Forces, the Combined Forces, and the Airborne Assault Forces.
The US Senate has passed a $95. 3 billion aid package for Ukraine and Israel
The Democratic-controlled Senate passed a bill for $95. 3 billion package with President Biden's support on February 13. This package includes additional aid for Ukraine, as well as funding for Israel and Taiwan. Despite opposition from many Republicans who were against allocating such a large amount of money overseas, the bill was able to move forward. However, it now faces challenges in the Republican-controlled House. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R., La.) has indicated that changes will be necessary for the bill to have any chance of becoming law, potentially including a renewed focus on border security.
One hundred Ukrainians have been released from Russian captivity
Ukraine has successfully repatriated another 100 Ukrainians from Russian captivity in the latest prisoner exchange with Russia. According to the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War, this marks the 51st prisoner swap since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Baykar, Turkey's drone maker, has commenced the construction of a new plant in Ukraine
Turkish defense company Baykar has begun constructing a factory near Kyiv, which will create job opportunities for approximately 500 individuals. The factory will be dedicated to manufacturing either the TB2 or TB3 drone models, as confirmed by the company's CEO in an interview with Reuters. Bayraktar drones, made in Turkey, have gained international recognition for their role in Ukraine's military operations against Russian forces, effectively neutralizing armored vehicles and artillery systems. Baykar has successfully secured export agreements for its TB2 drone with 30 countries, including Ukraine, Ethiopia, Libya, and Azerbaijan, since 2018.
Ukraine set to acquire additional NASAMS air defense systems
On February 9, Norwegian Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram proposed to the Norwegian Parliament to order an additional ten launch units and four fire control centers of the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) from Kongsberg Defense and Aerospace.
F-16s were deployed in Romania after a Russian drone attack on the Odesa Oblast
According to the Romanian Ministry of National Defense, Romania issued a warning to the population of border settlements and deployed F-16 fighter jets in response to the attack of Russian drones on Odesa Oblast on the night of 9-10 February. More specifically, F-16 aircraft from the Turkish Air Force were deployed from the Fetești air base to carry out search missions in the national airspace during this situation. The Romanian Defense Ministry has emphasized that there were no recorded violations of Romanian airspace during the air-raid warnings. However, as a precautionary measure, they are conducting additional checks in the Tulcea area.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russian forces are utilizing Starlink technology in the occupied territories
On February 11, the military intelligence unit of GUR reported on Telegram that radio intercepts have confirmed the systematic utilization of Starlink terminals by Russian units operating in the occupied Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine. The utilization of Starlink terminals, which offer high-speed communications, has proven crucial in granting Ukraine's military a strategic advantage against invading Russian troops. However, this recent development potentially undermines a significant advantage for Ukraine's army on the battlefield. Following reports in Ukraine, Elon Musk stated last week that SpaceX "does not do business of any kind with the Russian government or its military." Musk further clarified, "To my best knowledge, no Starlinks have been sold directly or indirectly to Russia," in a statement on X.
French security experts have identified a Moscow-based disinformation network
French military and cybersecurity experts have successfully identified a Moscow-based network that is actively spreading propaganda and disinformation across western Europe. Specifically, France's Viginum agency, established in 2021 to detect digital interference from foreign entities attempting to influence public opinion, has revealed that Russia is preparing for a new surge of online manipulation leading up to the European elections taking place this year.
Political Developments
The EU is preparing new sanctions against foreign companies that provide assistance to Russia in the war
The European Union is preparing sanctions for military and technological companies from China, Kazakhstan, Serbia, and other countries that are aiding Russia in its war efforts. Until now, the West has been cautious about targeting companies in third countries, as it wants to avoid alienating leaders and has opted for diplomatic approaches. However, with Russia increasing its production of missiles and other weapons using Western-made chips, there is mounting pressure on Brussels and Washington to take action.
Zelensky and Borrell met in Kyiv to discuss security cooperation and the delivery of ammunition
President Volodymyr Zelensky and the European Union's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell met in Kyiv on February 7 to discuss security cooperation between Kyiv and the EU, as well as ammunition deliveries to Ukraine, among other topics, according to the Presidential Office. Borrell's arrival in Kyiv a day prior was a gesture of the EU's unwavering commitment to Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression.
Ukrainian lawmakers have passed the first reading of the mobilization bill
Ukrainian lawmakers have successfully passed the first reading of a revised mobilization bill, overcoming previous challenges in implementing legislation aimed at bolstering its military forces. As it stands, the legislation would reduce the age at which individuals can be mobilized for combat duty by two years, bringing it down to 25. In addition, it would be necessary for military personnel stationed abroad to maintain current military registrations. Having such documentation would be a requirement for accessing consular services. Furthermore, the bill includes stricter sanctions for draft evasion, which entails an asset freeze. It is important to note that although the bill allows for the discharge of soldiers who have served continuously for 36 months during the war, this would not occur automatically.
Russia warns Argentina that sending Russian helicopters to Ukraine is unacceptable
In an interview with RIA Novosti, the Russian ambassador to Argentina expressed his strong disapproval of the Argentine authorities sending Russian Mi-171E helicopters to Ukraine. He stated that Argentine authorities have not confirmed reports of transferring two Russian transport helicopters to Kyiv, as previously reported by the "Noticias Urbanas" portal in mid-December last year.
The EU has agreed on new measures to isolate frozen Russian funds
On February 12, the European Council reached an agreement on a series of new measures aimed at targeting profits generated from frozen assets owned by the Russian Central Bank. This development potentially opens up the possibility of redirecting the revenue to Ukraine in the future. At the outset of the full-scale invasion, Western countries immobilized approximately $300 billion of the Russian Central Bank's assets. Since then, discussions have taken place between Washington, Brussels, and Kyiv regarding the legal avenues for channeling these funds to support Ukraine's reconstruction efforts. However, a definitive conclusion has yet to be reached.
Analysis of Priority & Political Updates
The global show of support for Ukraine has significant political ramifications on both regional and international levels. The backing from various nations underscores the complexity of the conflict and its implications for global security dynamics. As countries vocally condemn Russia's actions and express solidarity with Ukraine, diplomatic tensions rise, potentially leading to shifts in alliances and geopolitical strategies.
The United States and its NATO allies have been particularly vocal in their support for Ukraine, signaling a unified stance against Russian aggression and a commitment to upholding international norms and territorial integrity. This collective stance amplifies diplomatic pressure on Russia, potentially leading to sanctions and other punitive measures.
Furthermore, the global support for Ukraine underscores the importance of international law and norms in addressing conflicts and maintaining a rules-based international order. It serves as a reminder that actions violating sovereignty and territorial integrity are met with widespread condemnation and potential consequences, thus influencing the calculus of nations engaged in such activities.
The political impact of global support for Ukraine extends beyond the immediate conflict, potentially affecting broader diplomatic relations and regional stability. The unity of nations in support of Ukraine could embolden other nations to rally against aggression and assert their interests through international cooperation. However, it also raises the stakes of the conflict, increasing the potential for escalation and necessitating careful diplomatic navigation to prevent a wider crisis.
Conflict Zone Updates
According to a report by The Financial Times (FT) on February 9, Ukraine is currently facing challenges due to shortages of artillery. The issue has been exacerbated by delayed US aid and the anticipated failure of Europe to meet its deadline of providing one million artillery shells to Ukraine by March 2024. An unnamed senior US military official has expressed concern that the delay in US aid could create an "air bubble" or a disruption in Western assistance to Ukraine, potentially leaving Ukraine without Western support for an unspecified period of time. With this in mind, Ukraine has turned to a high reliance on modern technologies, particularly drones. In conjunction with the appointment of a new Commander in Chief, they have also established the Drone Forces as a new and independent branch of the Armed Forces. The move is expected to enhance offensive capabilities and upgrade electronic warfare. In this regard, it is worth noting that Ukraine has recently started mass production of loitering munitions. These drones bear resemblance to the Russian Lancet drones and have the capability to hit targets at a range of up to 40 kilometers. Furthermore, the initiative has also attracted participation from the private sector. Brave Inventors, a tech firm based in Ukraine, recently unveiled their latest creation, the Shoolika Mark 6 combat drone. This advanced drone is designed to withstand electronic warfare and is equipped with night vision capabilities. In addition to this, it is interesting to mention that Ukrainians have successfully deployed domestically manufactured aerostats on the battlefield as well. These aerostats serve as reconnaissance assets and signal relays. According to reports, they are delivered in transport containers equipped with winches and helium tanks, enabling quick deployment. In less than 15 minutes, they can be inflated and lifted to an altitude of 500 meters above the ground when connected to the winch. These aerostats provide a cost-effective alternative, priced at a quarter of the cost of commercial drones. Furthermore, Ukraine's electronic warfare capabilities are also being upgraded. For instance, on February 8, specialists from the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine successfully conducted a cyberattack. Specifically, enemy forces experienced significant issues with their drone management software, which is utilized by Russians to modify DJI drones for combat operations. The Russian drone reflashing project relies on web servers to maintain the functionality of the friend-or-foe system. According to preliminary information, the servers have stopped working due to a Ukrainian cyberattack. As a result, all software is being recognized as "foe" and denying access to Russians, thus disabling remote control of drones.
On the other hand, with the awareness of the current situation faced by Ukrainians, the Russians are exerting pressure. They are accumulating troops, replenishing military equipment, and intensifying ground attacks in multiple locations along the frontline. They are also employing new weapon systems and upgrading existing ones, while changing tactics of air assaults. These changes include attacking from different directions, using varying trajectories, and employing different combinations of means, which makes the task of Ukrainian air defenses more challenging. In this regard, it is worth mentioning that during one of the recent attacks on Kyiv, the Russians employed the latest Zircon hypersonic missile, launching it from Crimea. According to various sources, the trajectory of this missile differed from that of the Onyx and Kinzhal missiles used in previous attacks. Furthermore, in the Kherson region, there has been an escalation in chemical attacks by Russian troops on the positions of the Ukrainian military. On February 8 alone, Russians dropped 6 munitions containing chloropicrin, a tear gas chemical, from a UAV. Moreover, there have been approximately a dozen recorded attempts by Russians to launch attacks using poisonous substances over the past week. In addition to the aforementioned, the Russian Ministry of Defense (RuMoD) has recently announced that the production of Kitolov-2 shells, Strela anti-aircraft missiles, and Vikhr-1 guided missiles by the Kalashnikov Concern will be doubled. This decision is made in anticipation of the arrival of F-16 fighter jets in Ukraine.
Air Raid Frequency Updates
In the field, having accurate and up-to-date information about air raid alerts is crucial for the safety and efficiency of personnel. Understanding the frequency, duration, and location of these alerts provides valuable insight that can significantly impact decision-making on the ground. Armed with this knowledge, personnel can plan their movements more strategically, avoiding high-risk areas during times of increased alert activity. With the help of this vital information, they can ensure safer operations while maximizing their resources effectively.
By analyzing the available information from February 8 to February 14, several key points can be observed:
In contrast to the previous week, where the highest peak of Air Raid Alerts occurred at 12 AM, this week witnessed the highest peak at 11 AM. Additionally, there were high peaks at 5 AM, 4 PM, and 11 PM.
Moreover, it is worth mentioning that the majority of Air Raid Alerts typically lasted between 30 minutes and one hour, with a total of 105 occurrences. It was rare to encounter Air Raid Alerts that lasted between 2 and 2. 5 hours, which only occurred 13 times.
Furthermore, it is worth noting a slight shift in the pattern of eventful days for Air Raid Alerts compared to the previous period. In the previous reporting period, Wednesday had the highest frequency of Air Raid Alerts. However, recent data from the past week reveals a slight change. Wednesday remained the most eventful day, with 78 occurrences, closely followed by Friday with 67. In contrast, Monday had the lowest frequency, with only 24 reported Air Raid Alerts.
Finally, it was discovered that the Donetsk region had the highest concentration of Air Raid Alerts, with a total of 48 occurrences. In contrast, the Ivano-Frankivsk and Ternopil regions had a minimal number of Air Raid Alerts, with only 2 recorded occurrences each.
Analysis of Conflict Development
Recent updates in the Ukraine conflict suggest potential shifts in tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTP), which could have far-reaching implications for the conflict's trajectory in the near future. Reports indicate a notable increase in hybrid warfare tactics, including cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns targeting both military and civilian infrastructure. This suggests an evolving strategy to undermine Ukraine's stability beyond traditional battlefield engagements.
Leadership changes have also emerged as a significant development. New announcements indicate a reshuffling of top military personnel, potentially signifying adjustments in strategic direction. Such changes may lead to alterations in operational tactics and coordination among different units. Furthermore, the influx of foreign fighters, equipment, and military advisors on both sides has the potential to introduce novel combat techniques, potentially escalating the conflict's intensity.
In terms of equipment and infrastructure developments, recent reports suggest the deployment of advanced weapon systems, including long-range artillery and anti-ship missiles, which could alter the dynamics of engagements and complicate defensive strategies. Additionally, developments in electronic warfare capabilities have the potential to disrupt communication and surveillance systems, further shaping the battlespace.
In the coming weeks and months, the conflict's course could be influenced by these developments. A mix of traditional and hybrid tactics might lead to an increasingly complex battlefield, with information warfare playing a more prominent role. Leadership changes could either introduce more aggressive approaches or open doors to diplomatic solutions. As both sides incorporate advanced weaponry and tactics, the potential for more intense and unpredictable confrontations could reshape the conflict's trajectory.
SecurityACCESS Ukraine
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Ukraine Core Capabilities
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