Publish Date: 21FEB2024
Security & Geopolitical Analyst: MF
Contributing Authors: CT, MSO, ML, VV
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Summary
Over the past 7 days, a series of significant events have taken place that are directly or indirectly linked to the ongoing Ukrainian conflict. These developments have captured the attention of both regional and global audiences:
Alexei Navalny, Putin's top critic and opposition leader, died in prison on February 16
Russian pilot who defected to Ukraine shot dead in Spain
President Biden blames congressional inaction for Ukraine's withdrawal from Avdiivka
Belarus has deployed Special Operations Forces units to the border with Ukraine
Ukraine is set to receive 1 million drones from its allies in 2024
Czech Republic has found 800, 000 shells for Ukraine
The US handed over confiscated assets of the Russian Federation to Estonia to assist Ukraine
Ukraine and NATO will create joint analytical, training and educational center in Poland
Russia plans to withdraw from the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly
Japan will provide $12. 1 billion in aid to Ukraine
Germany is preparing a €1. 1 billion military aid package for Ukraine
Sweden boosts military aid to Ukraine with a $682M armament package
Australia has allocated $50 million in military aid to Ukraine
Canada has allocated $44 million to support Ukraine's future F-16 fleet
Denmark will donate all of its artillery to Ukraine
Norway may sign a security guarantees agreement with Ukraine in the coming weeks
Threat Mapping Updates
Mapping Analysis
As the anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine approaches, the battlefield remains highly dynamic. Russia continues its ground and air attacks along the frontline, focusing on several strategic locations. On February 15, they targeted Kharkiv Oblast, Dnipro, Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Lviv. Over the next few days, they increased pressure on the Marinka and Kherson fronts and made limited advances southeast of Bohdanivka and northwest of Vesele. However, the main focus was on Avdiivka, where they recently deployed 50, 000 troops. On Saturday, February 17, following heavy fighting, the Ukrainian side confirmed the retreat of its troops from the city. This represents a tactical triumph for Moscow, enabling Russian forces to consolidate positions around Bakhmut and secure control of the highway between the cities of Donetsk, approximately 15 miles to the south, and Kramatorsk. However, this victory came at a very high price. For instance, the Ukrainian 3rd Assault Brigade, which arrived as reinforcements in Avdiivka, successfully eliminated two Russian brigades before retreating to rear positions. According to US officials, the Russian military had suffered over 13, 000 casualties along the Avdiivka-Novopavlivka axis in just a few weeks. Overall, Russian casualties in and around the city have exceeded 30, 000. Nevertheless, the Russians continue to advance slowly despite suffering heavy losses, and the fighting is ongoing in the direction of the village of Lastochkyne, west of Avdiivka. According to some analysts, in addition to manpower, a significant amount of equipment is also a crucial factor in this conflict. Russia is believed to be able to sustain the current equipment losses for another two to three years. Furthermore, in addition to applying pressure through offensive activities, they are also enhancing their defense lines. Recently, Russians have established a defensive line using railroad cars. It extends along the railway track from the Olenivka railway station to Volnovakha. The defense line is 30 kilometers long and comprises approximately 2, 100 railroad cars of different types. Construction of this extensive defense structure reportedly commenced in July 2023, utilizing rolling stock taken from temporarily occupied territories. This solid wall poses a significant obstacle to advancing troops. With certain sections of the railroad track featuring a high subgrade that distributes the load on the ground, this defensive line functions as a fully-fledged defensive rampart.
On the other hand, although the retreat from Avdiivka may have had a negative psychological impact on Ukrainians, the Commander in Chief of the Ukrainian Army remained firm, explaining the motivation behind the decision. He stated that the retreat was motivated by preserving human lives and emphasized that the war must end with Ukraine reaching its borders, with no other options being considered. According to the Institute for the Study of War, the ongoing slow rate of Russian advancement in and around Avdiivka indicates that Ukrainian forces executed a relatively controlled withdrawal from the city. They are now in the process of repositioning to the next line of defense while still inflicting losses on the enemy. Over the weekend of February 17-18, they successfully destroyed four Russian fighter jets, including three Su-34s and one Su-35 fighter-bomber, while moving out of Avdiivka. The following day, they destroyed two more in the eastern direction, while on January 20 alone, the Ukrainian Defense Forces eliminated 1, 230 enemy troops, destroyed 36 Russian armored personnel carriers, and disabled 40 artillery systems. Deep strikes into Russian territory were also observed. In the past week, a day after Ukrainians sank a Russian warship off the coast of Crimea, they targeted Belgorod, killing 5 and injuring at least 18 using a missile. Additionally, on February 15, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine conducted an operation using two drones to target an oil depot in the Kursk region of Russia. Specifically, the operation took place in Poleyeva, a village located 90 miles from the Russian-Ukrainian border. On the same day, they also targeted the Federal Research and Production Center Altai plant. This plant, under the Roscosmos state corporation, manufactures a range of items, such as ammunition, solid-fuel rocket engine charges, and explosives for industrial use. Many analysts agree that there is a realistic possibility that Ukrainian long-range strike efforts will continue to target the deep rear in Russia, focusing on Russian defense industrial bases, fuel and ammunition plants, and government organizations. This strategy aims to force the Russian army to spread their air defense assets further and reduce coverage of the front lines.
Priority Updates
Alexei Navalny, Putin's top critic and opposition leader, died in prison on February 16
Alexei Anatolyevich Navalny, a prominent Russian opposition leader and anti-corruption activist, tragically passed away on February 16, 2024, at the age of 47. Navalny was serving a lengthy 19-year prison sentence in the town of Kharp, located in the remote Arctic region of Yamalo-Nenets, at a highly secured penal colony named "Polar Wolf." The reported cause of his death was "sudden death syndrome." However, due to Navalny's influential role as a vocal critic of the government, an opposition leader, and activist who fought against official corruption, the circumstances surrounding his passing remain shrouded in question. Moreover, Alexei Navalny emerged as a prominent figure in Russian politics by spearheading extensive anti-Kremlin demonstrations, earning him the reputation as President Vladimir Putin's most formidable adversary. Throughout a considerable span of time, he confronted numerous political and other obstacles, including enduring court trials and being placed under house arrest, all stemming from his unwavering commitment to openly criticize the Russian president and government. However, despite facing many challenges, Navalny successfully established a robust political network and orchestrated massive street protests across Russia. His claims that all processes against him were fabricated for political reasons, that he was tortured while serving his sentence, and that he survived a poisoning attempt back in 2020 have led many to question the circumstances surrounding his death. This has raised suspicions of foul play, with many attributing responsibility directly to Russian President Vladimir Putin, given the history between them. Navalny's death has sparked widespread condemnation from ordinary people and high-ranking politicians, including the President of the United States and various European officials, leading to protests both within Russia and internationally. For many in the Russian Federation, he will be remembered as the “last beacon of hope.” Throughout his lifetime, Navalny has received numerous international human rights awards for his activism and promotion of democratic values. He is survived by his wife and two children.
Russian pilot who defected to Ukraine shot dead in Spain
Last week, Maksym Kuzminov, the Russian pilot who defected to Ukraine with a Mi-8 helicopter in August, was found shot to death in Spain. His body was discovered on February 13 in an underground parking lot in Villajoyosa, near Alicante, with at least five bullet wounds. Kuzminov had been living in Spain under an alternative name and with a Ukrainian passport.
President Biden blames congressional inaction for Ukraine's withdrawal from Avdiivka
During a call on February 17, US President Joe Biden directly linked Ukraine's withdrawal from the strategic town of Avdiivka to Congress' failure to pass additional aid for the country's defense against Russia's invasion.
Belarus has deployed Special Operations Forces units to the border with Ukraine
Belarus has initiated a counterterrorism operation on the border with Ukraine and is deploying units of Special Operations Forces (SOF). Specifically, on February 15, the Belarusian government announced the commencement of a counterterrorism operation in the border village of Lyelchytsy, Lyelchytsy district, Gomel region. The settlement is situated just 10 kilometers from the Ukrainian-Belarusian border. According to journalists, the soldiers brought to Lyelchytsy have not departed and are still present in the village. The spokesperson of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, Andriy Demchenko, stated that border guards have not recorded any active actions on the border with Belarus at this time.
Ukraine is set to receive 1 million drones from its allies in 2024
Allies are planning to join forces and supply Ukraine with a million drones this year, as announced by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg at a press conference in Brussels on February 15 following a NATO-Ukraine Council meeting. On the same day, UK Defense Secretary Grant Shapps announced that Ukraine will receive thousands more drones, with the UK co-leading a major drone capability coalition with Latvia for Ukraine. A couple of days later, the Netherlands, Germany, and Estonia joined the coalition.
Czech Republic has found 800, 000 shells for Ukraine
Representatives of the Czech Republic have discovered 800, 000 artillery shells of 155mm and 122mm caliber in third countries. If funding is arranged, they may be transported to Ukraine "in the coming weeks." Czech President Petr Pavel made this statement at the Munich Conference on Saturday, February 17th.
The US handed over confiscated assets of the Russian Federation to Estonia to assist Ukraine
For the first time in history, the USA has transferred confiscated Russian assets to Estonia with the aim of supporting Ukraine. These funds, as reported by the US Department of Justice, were seized in a case involving the illegal purchase network of high-precision machines for the Russian Federation's military industry.
Ukraine and NATO will create joint analytical, training and educational center in Poland
NATO and Ukraine will establish a joint analytical, training, and educational center in Poland. The announcement was made by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on February 15 in Brussels following a meeting of the Ukraine-NATO Council.
Political Developments
Russia plans to withdraw from the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly
Vyacheslav Volodin, chairman of the Russian parliament, announced that the Russian Federation will suspend its participation in the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Parliamentary Assembly. The State Duma and Federation Council will discuss suspending Russia's involvement in the Assembly on February 21. Since 1993, the Assembly has monitored elections in over 30 countries across Europe, Africa, North America, and Asia.
Japan will provide $12. 1 billion in aid to Ukraine
Japan will provide $12. 1 billion in assistance to Ukraine. The Prime Minister of Ukraine, Denis Shmygal, announced this after a meeting with his Japanese counterpart, Fumio Kishida.
Germany is preparing a €1. 1 billion military aid package for Ukraine
On February 16, Germany announced its preparation to transfer a new military aid package worth €1. 1 billion to Ukraine. The aid includes 36 armored and wheeled howitzers from industrial stocks, 120, 000 rounds of ammunition, two SkyNex air defense systems, IRIS-T missiles, and various other equipment. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has pledged a total of €28 billion in military aid to Ukraine. Additionally, the German government revealed that it had already dispatched another batch of military aid to Ukraine within the past week.
Sweden boosts military aid to Ukraine with a $682M armament package
On January 20, Sweden announced that it would provide Ukraine with military equipment worth 7. 1 billion kronor ($682 million). The package includes artillery shells, air defense systems, boats, underwater weapons such as mines and torpedoes, and training for Ukrainian soldiers. This marks Sweden's 15th aid package to Ukraine and is the largest to date.
Australia has allocated $50 million in military aid to Ukraine
The Australian Government is granting $50 million to the International Fund for Ukraine for critical military capabilities, as reported by the Australian Department of Defense. The fund is overseen by the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defense.
Canada has allocated $44 million to support Ukraine's future F-16 fleet
Canada has allocated $44 million to support Ukraine in setting up its fleet of F-16 fighter jets, as stated by Canadian Defense Minister Bill Blair. According to Canada's Defense Ministry, this allocation will be used for equipment such as spare parts, weapons stations, avionics, and ammunition, as confirmed by the Canadian Defense Ministry.
Denmark will donate all of its artillery to Ukraine
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announced on February 17 that Denmark has decided to deliver all the artillery rounds from its stockpiles to Ukraine.
Norway may sign a security guarantees agreement with Ukraine in the coming weeks
Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre stated to the Norwegian News Agency on February 16 that he anticipates signing a bilateral agreement with Ukraine regarding security guarantees in the upcoming weeks. This agreement would mark the fourth bilateral security agreement between Kyiv and its partners, following commitments made by G7 countries last July. Earlier this week, President Zelensky signed a bilateral security cooperation agreement with his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron. Similar deals were also signed with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin on February 16 and with UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in Kyiv in January.
Analysis of Priority & Political Updates
The global show of support for Ukraine has significant political ramifications on both regional and international levels. The backing from various nations underscores the complexity of the conflict and its implications for global security dynamics. As countries vocally condemn Russia's actions and express solidarity with Ukraine, diplomatic tensions rise, potentially leading to shifts in alliances and geopolitical strategies.
The United States and its NATO allies have been particularly vocal in their support for Ukraine, signaling a unified stance against Russian aggression and a commitment to upholding international norms and territorial integrity. This collective stance amplifies diplomatic pressure on Russia, potentially leading to sanctions and other punitive measures.
Furthermore, the global support for Ukraine underscores the importance of international law and norms in addressing conflicts and maintaining a rules-based international order. It serves as a reminder that actions violating sovereignty and territorial integrity are met with widespread condemnation and potential consequences, thus influencing the calculus of nations engaged in such activities.
The political impact of global support for Ukraine extends beyond the immediate conflict, potentially affecting broader diplomatic relations and regional stability. The unity of nations in support of Ukraine could embolden other nations to rally against aggression and assert their interests through international cooperation. However, it also raises the stakes of the conflict, increasing the potential for escalation and necessitating careful diplomatic navigation to prevent a wider crisis.
Conflict Zone Updates
In response to a shortage of ammunition and manpower, Ukraine is increasingly turning to innovative solutions to defend itself against Russia. The Ukrainian defense sector recently introduced a state-of-the-art unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) named the “Lyut” (Fury). As reported by Militarnyi, this advanced robotic platform is outfitted with a PKT 7. 62mm machine gun, specifically engineered to meet the demanding requirements of military operations. The "Lyut" is built on a wheeled chassis with full-wheel drive, optimized for intensive military tasks. It is engineered to function as a mobile turret, capable of conducting diversionary maneuvers and pinpointing enemy positions upon engagement, thereby enhancing battlefield dynamics. The importance of these assets in the conflict and the damage they inflict on Russian troops is best represented by Moscow's offer of a cash reward for the capture of an unmanned ground vehicle. Specifically, in 2022, the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST) initially announced a reward of one million rubles ($11, 000) for any military personnel who seized a relatively intact THeMIS vehicle. However, on February 15, 2024, they increased the reward to two million rubles, or almost $22, 000, for this Estonian-made vehicle used by the Ukrainians on the battlefield. Furthermore, Ukrainians have also begun using American-made ground-launched glide bombs for offensive actions, a development that was not seen until recently. The use of these bombs came at a critical moment, as the 600-pound, 90-mile-range glide bombs may help to compensate for a severe shortage of 155mm howitzer shells. Moreover, Ukrainians expect to enhance their offensive capabilities even further, as the UK and its allies promise to provide new advanced swarm drones. This involves thousands of new artificial intelligence UAVs that can simultaneously attack Russian targets. According to Ukrainian military officials, these drones can be deployed in large fleets that communicate with each other to target Russian positions, without the need for a human operator to control each one. The developers of this technology believe it could enable Ukraine to suppress specific Russian positions, and it is expected to be delivered to Kyiv in a few months. On the other hand, they are also developing new defensive capabilities. In response to the significant threats posed by Russian kamikaze drones, Ukraine has implemented a comprehensive acoustic sensor network spanning thousands of sensors across its territory. The network is strategically positioned to detect low-altitude objects, primarily one-way UAVs like the Shahed-136, by amplifying ambient noise through various microphones dispersed throughout the country. Ukraine has successfully identified and tracked these drone threats with approximately 6, 000 sensors in operation. Despite the relatively modest engines of kamikaze drones, they emit significant noise, making them detectable through this advanced surveillance system.
On the other hand, Russia is also upgrading both its offensive and defensive capabilities. Specifically, there has been an increase in the use of mock-ups of Lancets in positions from which real launches of loitering munitions are carried out, as well as a more frequent use of various gasses. Specifically, Russian forces have used weapons containing phosphorus in Avdiivka. Apart from offensive capabilities, they are also rapidly developing defense capabilities. Russian scientists have reportedly developed a technology to identify and differentiate between enemy installations and equipment. The NAKA technology, described as a "neural network," is intended to be used on drones to detect European and US systems such as the Leopard main battle tank (MBT) and the Bradley infantry fighting vehicle (IFV). For example, an airplane transmits video to the operator's console. The program loaded into the console highlights a specific area of the terrain in green and indicates: "This is a Leopard, and this is a Bradley with an 85% probability," displaying the exact coordinates of their locations. Interestingly, Hardberry-Rusfactor, founded in 2013, has also developed a tilt-rotor drone called "Lovkiy." It has been reported that it can reach speeds of up to 2. 5 times faster (up to 200 kilometers per hour) and fly longer (up to 1. 5 hours) more than all other Russian drones currently being used in the "Special Military Operation (SMO) zone" today. It is expected that both sides will continue to develop similar assets as the conflict evolves.
Air Raid Frequency Updates
In the field, having accurate and up-to-date information about air raid alerts is crucial for the safety and efficiency of personnel. Understanding the frequency, duration, and location of these alerts provides valuable insight that can significantly impact decision-making on the ground. Armed with this knowledge, personnel can plan their movements more strategically, avoiding high-risk areas during times of increased alert activity. With the help of this vital information, they can ensure safer operations while maximizing their resources effectively.
By analyzing the available information from February 15 to February 21, several key points can be observed:
In contrast to the previous week, when the highest peak of Air Raid Alerts occurred at 11 AM, this week witnessed the highest peak at 1 PM.
Furthermore, it is worth mentioning that the majority of Air Raid Alerts typically lasted between 30 minutes and one hour, with a total of 149 occurrences. It was rare to encounter Air Raid Alerts that lasted between 2. 5 and 3 hours, which only occurred 13 times.
Moreover, there has been a slight shift in the pattern of eventful days for Air Raid Alerts compared to the previous period. In the previous reporting period, Wednesday had the highest frequency of Air Raid Alerts. However, recent data from the past week reveals a noticeable change. Thursday became the most eventful day, with 88 occurrences, closely followed by Friday with 73. In contrast, Sunday had the lowest frequency, with only 14 reported Air Raid Alerts.
Finally, it was discovered that the Kharkiv region had the highest concentration of air raid alerts, totaling 59 occurrences. In contrast, the Chernivtsi and Volyn regions had a minimal number of air raid alerts, with only 5 recorded occurrences each.
Analysis of Conflict Development
Recent updates in the Ukraine conflict suggest potential shifts in tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTP), which could have far-reaching implications for the conflict's trajectory in the near future. Reports indicate a notable increase in hybrid warfare tactics, including cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns targeting both military and civilian infrastructure. This suggests an evolving strategy to undermine Ukraine's stability beyond traditional battlefield engagements.
Leadership changes have also emerged as a significant development. New announcements indicate a reshuffling of top military personnel, potentially signifying adjustments in strategic direction. Such changes may lead to alterations in operational tactics and coordination among different units. Furthermore, the influx of foreign fighters, equipment, and military advisors on both sides has the potential to introduce novel combat techniques, potentially escalating the conflict's intensity.
In terms of equipment and infrastructure developments, recent reports suggest the deployment of advanced weapon systems, including long-range artillery and anti-ship missiles, which could alter the dynamics of engagements and complicate defensive strategies. Additionally, developments in electronic warfare capabilities have the potential to disrupt communication and surveillance systems, further shaping the battlespace.
In the coming weeks and months, the conflict's course could be influenced by these developments. A mix of traditional and hybrid tactics might lead to an increasingly complex battlefield, with information warfare playing a more prominent role. Leadership changes could either introduce more aggressive approaches or open doors to diplomatic solutions. As both sides incorporate advanced weaponry and tactics, the potential for more intense and unpredictable confrontations could reshape the conflict's trajectory.
SecurityACCESS Ukraine
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Ukraine Core Capabilities
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