Publish Date: 01MAR2024
Security & Geopolitical Analyst: MF
Contributing Authors: CT, MSO, ML
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Summary
Over the past 7 days, a series of significant events have taken place that are directly or indirectly linked to the ongoing Ukrainian conflict. These developments have captured the attention of both regional and global audiences:
Canada is ready to allocate funds for the supply of ammunition to Ukraine from the Czech Republic
Foreigners are permitted to serve in Ukraine's National Guard
The UK is investing €280 million in the purchase and production of artillery for Ukraine
The first group of Ukrainian pilots will finish F-16 training with the US by summer
Poland announces it will introduce border checkpoints to list of critical infrastructure
The EU plans to send almost 170 thousand shells to Ukraine by the end of March
Starting from March, Lithuania will prohibit the disembarkation of passengers from transit trains in Kaliningrad and will close two checkpoints on the border with Belarus
Germany sends another military aid package to Ukraine
Latvia has approved a ban on Russian agricultural products
Biden meets with Navalny's family and pledges sanctions against Putin
On February 22, Denmark pledged a $247 million military aid package and signed a 10-year security agreement with Ukraine
On February 24, several world leaders visited Kyiv and signed security agreements
NATO allies have rejected Emmanuel Macron's idea of sending troops to Ukraine
Threat Mapping Updates
Mapping Analysis
Since capturing Avdiivka on February 17, the Russian Army has strengthened its position in the area and is maintaining pressure along the frontline in multiple directions. As the third year of full-scale war began, the Russian President ordered the military to advance further into Ukraine and capitalize on recent successes. Consequently, Moscow's troops occupied the village of Lastochkyne, located west of Avdiivka, and intensified their attacks around Robotyne in southern Ukraine, aiming to stretch Ukrainian defense forces. They also attempted to advance on the left bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast, where they repeatedly stormed Ukrainian positions in an effort to breach their defenses. Additionally, they intensified pressure on the Marinka axis, with 44 combat engagements taking place on February 24 alone, representing more than half of the total combat clashes that occurred that day. Despite the heavy losses associated with their advancements, Ukrainian assessments indicate that Moscow has approximately 470, 000 troops in occupied territories, with the majority of them (110, 000) concentrated in the areas of Kupiansk and Lyman, forming a significant ground component. Ukrainian military intelligence claims that Russia also has nearly 300 combat aircraft ready to target Ukraine at any moment. In this regard, it should be noted that over the past 7 days, multiple areas throughout Ukraine have been affected by airstrikes. These include Milove, Vilkhuvatka, Hryhorivka, Kolodiazne, Mytrofanivka, and Petropavlivka (Kharkiv Oblast); Makiivka and Bilohorivka (Luhansk Oblast); Lyman, Siversk, Bila Hora, Dyliivka, Zhelanne, Stepove, Semenivka, Orlivka, Lastochkyne, Tonenke, Antonivka, and Urozhaine (Donetsk Oblast), as well as Robotyne, Novoandriivka, Orikhiv (Zaporizhzhia Oblast); Krynky and Chornobaivka (Kherson Oblast), among others. Moreover, over 120 settlements in Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv oblasts have been targeted by Russian artillery fire. According to various analysts, the Russians are now likely to focus on capturing Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, which would effectively give them control over the entire Donbas region.
While military officials in Kyiv claim that Ukrainian forces had to withdraw from Lastochkyne to avoid blocking logistic paths and to preserve personnel, various analysts suggest that Ukraine is likely to suffer more territorial losses over the next 12 months. The lack of tactical reserves and ammunition is listed as the main reason. Moreover, Zelensky expects that Russia will attempt a new offensive in late May or during the summer. However, for the time being, it seems that Ukrainian forces are consolidating their positions on new defense lines, repelling numerous attacks, and inflicting heavy losses on the enemy, all while managing with limited resources. On 22 February alone, they eliminated 1, 160 Russian soldiers, 2 air defense systems, 7 tanks, 35 armored combat vehicles, 41 artillery systems, an aircraft, and two defense systems. According to UK Defense Intelligence, since the beginning of the invasion, Russia has lost over 2, 700 tanks, 5, 000 infantry fighting vehicles, and armored personnel carriers, with an estimated 350, 000 Russian troops killed or wounded. Additionally, Ukrainians are continuing strikes in Russia's deep rear. On February 24, a successful drone strike targeted the Novolipetsk (NLMK) factory in the western Lipetsk region, one of Russia's largest steel plants. This factory, located 400 kilometers from the Ukraine-Russia border, is believed to have been directly involved in weapons production for the so-called "special operation." Furthermore, on the same day, they also succeeded in downing another Russian A-50 plane, marking the second incident within one month. The aircraft was targeted between the Russian cities of Rostov-on-Don and Krasnodar, over 200 kilometers away from the front line. According to a Ukrainian military official, the loss of another A-50 will significantly diminish Russia's reconnaissance capabilities. However, the same source highlighted that Ukraine is facing challenges in maintaining its air capabilities, infrastructure, and assets as well. He noted that one of the main issues in the coming period will be safeguarding airfields, especially with the imminent arrival of F-16 jet fighters. For instance, during the last seven days, the enemy has heavily bombed Kanatove airfield (near the city of Kropyvnytskyi) using ballistic missiles to prevent the expected deployment of aircraft at that location. Kyiv believes that the arrival of F-16 fighter jets will bring a significant change to the war situation, especially after the NATO Secretary General affirmed "Ukraine's right to use F-16s for self-defense, including conducting strikes on legitimate Russian targets outside of Ukraine."
Priority Updates
Canada is ready to allocate funds for the supply of ammunition to Ukraine from the Czech Republic
Canada is prepared to support Czechia's initiative to urgently deliver tens of thousands of artillery shells to Ukraine. While details are still being finalized, sources indicate that the Canadian government could allocate up to CAD$30 million (US$22 million) to implement the plan proposed by Czech President Petr Pavel at the opening of the Munich Security Conference.
Foreigners are permitted to serve in Ukraine's National Guard
The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, has signed a decree allowing foreigners to serve in the National Guard of Ukraine. The document was published on the President’s website. Foreign individuals who are legally present in Ukraine, have no criminal records, and meet the military service requirements as defined by the Law of Ukraine “On Military Duty and Military Service,” can voluntarily enlist (under a contract) in the National Guard of Ukraine.
The UK is investing €280 million in the purchase and production of artillery for Ukraine
The United Kingdom will spend £245 million (approximately EUR 280 million) over the next year to strengthen supply chains and procure urgently needed artillery ammunition for Ukraine. This information was reported on the British government's website. The UK has pledged over $8. 8 billion (£7 billion) in military assistance to Ukraine since February 2022.
The first group of Ukrainian pilots will finish F-16 training with the US by summer
According to CNN, the pilots, who have been training at a US air base in Arizona since October, are expected to complete their training between May and August. The exact completion date depends on their progress throughout the program. Two other cohorts of pilots who began training earlier this year are currently undergoing basic training and English-language training necessary to fly fourth-generation US fighter jets.
Poland announces it will introduce border checkpoints to list of critical infrastructure
Last week, the Prime Minister of Poland announced that the country will introduce border checkpoints as critical infrastructure to ensure aid to Ukraine arrives without delays. The recent blockade has not only affected trucks carrying agricultural and commercial goods but has also caused delays in the transportation of military supplies across the Polish border. The Polish Prime Minister stated that a meeting between Polish and Ukrainian government officials will take place in Warsaw on March 28 to address and resolve the issue of border blockages.
The EU plans to send almost 170 thousand shells to Ukraine by the end of March
The European Union plans to transfer almost 170 thousand artillery shells to Ukraine by the end of March and is working on further increasing supplies. The announcement was made by Dmytro Kuleba, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, following a telephone conversation with Josep Borrell, the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.
Starting from March, Lithuania will prohibit the disembarkation of passengers from transit trains in Kaliningrad and will close two checkpoints on the border with Belarus
Starting March 1, Lithuanian authorities will close two border checkpoints on the Belarus border - Lavorishkes (Kotlovka) and Raigardas (Privalka). Lithuania has also announced a ban on passenger pick-ups and drop-offs for trains traveling to and from the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad next week, according to the country's government website. This decision follows the closure of two other crossings - Šumskas (Loša) and Tväreačius (Vidzy) - in the summer of 2023. The checkpoints at Medininkai (Kamenny Log) and Shalchininkai (Benyakoni) will continue to operate.
Germany sends another military aid package to Ukraine
On February 26, the German government reported sending another batch of military aid to Ukraine. The shipment included artillery shells, drones and demining vehicles. Germany has allocated or committed a total of €28 billion in military aid for Ukraine, with €7 billion earmarked for 2024.
NATO allies have rejected Emmanuel Macron's idea of sending troops to Ukraine
Several NATO countries, including the US, Germany, and the UK, have ruled out deploying ground troops to Ukraine after French President Emmanuel Macron stated that "nothing should be excluded." Macron mentioned that there was "no consensus" on sending Western soldiers to Ukraine during a crisis meeting in Paris attended by European heads of state, the US, and Canada. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has warned of a direct conflict if NATO troops are deployed there.
Political Developments
Latvia has approved a ban on Russian agricultural products
On February 22, the Latvian parliament voted to ban the import of grain products from Belarus and Russia until at least 2025, making it the first EU country to implement such a measure. Latvia is the EU's second-largest importer of Russian agricultural and animal feed products, following Italy.
Biden meets with Navalny's family and pledges sanctions against Putin
On February 23, US President Joe Biden met with the wife and daughter of the late Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny, as confirmed by the White House. After the meeting, Biden announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin would himself be sanctioned. On the same day, the Biden administration imposed a new set of sanctions on over 500 targets in Russia.
On February 22, Denmark pledged a $247 million military aid package and signed a 10-year security agreement with Ukraine
On February 22, the Danish Defense Ministry announced that Denmark will provide Ukraine with another defense aid package worth 1. 7 billion Danish kroner (approximately $247 million). It includes ammunition, drone equipment, and other items. As part of this assistance, Denmark will finance the procurement of 15, 000 artillery shells out of the 800, 000 that Czechia has discovered in third countries and proposed to send to Ukraine. On the same day, Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announced that Denmark has also signed a 10-year security assistance agreement with Ukraine. The security guarantees will be funded by Denmark's Ukraine Fund, which has allocated over 69 billion kroner ($10 billion) to the initiative, with financing in place until 2028.
On February 24, several world leaders visited Kyiv and signed security agreements
On February 24, several world leaders visited Ukraine to commemorate the second anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Canada and Italy have signed security agreements with Ukraine. He mentioned that the ten-year accord with Ottawa allocates over USD 2. 2 billion in macro-financial and defense assistance to Kyiv in 2024. Rome's agreement aims to maintain military support for Ukraine in 2024, which will be determined through additional consultations with Kyiv. The document specifies that Italy has already extended the necessary legislation to authorize continued military support to Ukraine throughout 2024. In addition to the Prime Ministers of Italy and Canada, Belgium's Alexander De Croo and the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, also visited Kyiv.
Analysis of Priority & Political Updates
The global show of support for Ukraine has significant political ramifications on both regional and international levels. The backing from various nations underscores the complexity of the conflict and its implications for global security dynamics. As countries vocally condemn Russia's actions and express solidarity with Ukraine, diplomatic tensions rise, potentially leading to shifts in alliances and geopolitical strategies.
The United States and its NATO allies have been particularly vocal in their support for Ukraine, signaling a unified stance against Russian aggression and a commitment to upholding international norms and territorial integrity. This collective stance amplifies diplomatic pressure on Russia, potentially leading to sanctions and other punitive measures.
Furthermore, the global support for Ukraine underscores the importance of international law and norms in addressing conflicts and maintaining a rules-based international order. It serves as a reminder that actions violating sovereignty and territorial integrity are met with widespread condemnation and potential consequences, thus influencing the calculus of nations engaged in such activities.
The political impact of global support for Ukraine extends beyond the immediate conflict, potentially affecting broader diplomatic relations and regional stability. The unity of nations in support of Ukraine could embolden other nations to rally against aggression and assert their interests through international cooperation. However, it also raises the stakes of the conflict, increasing the potential for escalation and necessitating careful diplomatic navigation to prevent a wider crisis.
Conflict Zone Updates
Given that both sides in this war are now implementing what the US refers to as a "hold and build" strategy, the improvement and innovation of military equipment, as well as boosting production to gain an advantage, becomes imperative. Eliot Cohen, who holds the Arleigh Burke chair at CSIS, shares this opinion. He suggests that a new military development or innovation could potentially lead to a breakthrough for one side or the other. Innovations such as the use of drones, satellite reconnaissance on a tactical scale, and the triangulation of cell phone signals and other intelligence have been identified as factors contributing to momentum shifts.
With this in mind, it should be noted that the Russians have recently introduced FPV drones with Granat-KOBE munitions, which include a HE-Frag-Penetrating warhead. These drones are designed to destroy armored vehicles and infantry, capable of maneuvering, flying into trenches and dugouts, and diving at any target, even if it is mobile. They can carry various payloads, ranging from PG-7 grenades for a hand-held anti-tank grenade launcher to HEAT ammunition weighing 500 grams or more. Moreover, Russians have also begun using laser-guided 2S4 Tyulpan mortar rounds, as observed near Avdiivka. These high-explosive rounds weigh 32. 4 kg and have a firing range of 3 to 9 kilometers. They are guided by a 1D15 laser designator-rangefinder or laser targeting from a drone equipped with this capability. Corrections to the final trajectory are made using impulse steering with mini-thrusters when 1 to 3 seconds of target illumination are needed to accurately hit the target. Additionally, it is worth noting that on February 23, Russia unveiled plans for the next-generation TOS-3 Dragon thermobaric rocket launcher. Sources within the Russian defense industry have revealed that the TOS-3 "Dragon" will incorporate design elements from its predecessors, utilizing the tracked chassis of either the T-72 or T-90 tanks. Furthermore, it will feature a launcher mechanism borrowed from the TOS-2 "Tosochka," known for its integrated ammunition loading system. This innovation is expected to significantly enhance the efficiency of reloading operations, a critical factor in sustained combat engagements. In addition to developing offensive capabilities, the Russians are also enhancing their defense capacities. According to Ukrainian military officials, Russia recently deployed two more Iskander missile launchers along Ukraine's border, bringing the total to 48.
After downing seven Sukhois in five days, followed by another Su-34 in the Kherson region and an A-50 reconnaissance plane deep inside Russia on February 24th, it is safe to say that Ukrainians are significantly enhancing their air defenses. Furthermore, they are also upgrading their artillery systems. Last week, Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavlyuk, Commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, unveiled the latest generation of the domestically developed self-propelled 155mm artillery system, the 2S22 "Bogdana." The upgraded version of the system is based on an 8×8 chassis and includes a new crew cabin. Moreover, a gun rammer has been integrated into the design to mechanize the loading of projectiles into the gun’s breech. This enhancement improves the rate of fire, streamlines the loading process, and ensures stability during loading operations. With a maximum speed of 80 km/h and a range of 700 km, the upgraded "Bogdana" ensures both mobility and operational endurance. Additionally, on February 24, the Ukrainian Air Defense Forces received 495 thermal imaging devices to enhance MANPADS. Specifically, as part of the "Igla+thermal imager" project, Guide TK631 sights and Guide TK431 monoculars were delivered to the military to improve accuracy. Nevertheless, Ukraine's focus remains on enhancing drone technology. In this regard, it is worth noting that units in the field are already conducting tests of AI-powered kamikaze drones received from allies, while Kyiv is expanding its domestic production capabilities. This statement is confirmed by Ukraine's Digital Minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, who recently declared that 90% of the drones used on the battlefield against Russian forces were manufactured in Ukraine. Moreover, the overall production of military equipment in Ukraine tripled last year, with further advancements anticipated. During a televised conference in Kyiv on February 25, Ukraine's Strategic Industries Minister, Oleksandr Kamyshin, mentioned that 100 state and 400 private companies are involved in the effort. He also highlighted Ukraine's plans to significantly increase ammunition production this year. However, according to experts, timely assistance for Ukraine, particularly in the form of longer-range weapons, is crucial at this point. Emily Harding, director of CSIS’s intelligence, national security, and technology program, suggests that providing Ukraine with more long-range weapons could enable them to strike deeper into Russian territory. This could help the general Russian population understand the costs of the conflict and potentially reverse broad support for the war. She also believes this could trigger more mutinies among Russian forces, similar to the Wagner group incident last year.
Air Raid Frequency Updates
In the field, having accurate and up-to-date information about air raid alerts is crucial for the safety and efficiency of personnel. Understanding the frequency, duration, and location of these alerts provides valuable insight that can significantly impact decision-making on the ground. Armed with this knowledge, personnel can plan their movements more strategically, avoiding high-risk areas during times of increased alert activity. With the help of this vital information, they can ensure safer operations while maximizing their resources effectively.
By analyzing the available information from February 22 to February 28, several key points can be observed:
In contrast to the previous week, when the highest peak of air raid alerts occurred at 1 PM, this week witnessed the highest peak at 12 AM.
Furthermore, it is worth mentioning that the majority of Air Raid Alerts typically lasted less than 30 minutes, with a total of 119 occurrences. It was rare to encounter Air Raid Alerts that lasted between 2. 5 and 3 hours, which only occurred 13 times.
Moreover, there has been a slight shift in the pattern of eventful days for Air Raid Alerts compared to the previous period. In the previous reporting period, Thursday had the highest frequency of Air Raid Alerts. However, recent data from the past week reveals a noticeable change. Monday became the most eventful day, with 78 occurrences, closely followed by Sunday with 75. In contrast, Friday and Saturday had the lowest frequency, with only 34 reported Air Raid Alerts each.
Finally, it was discovered that the Dnipropetrovsk region had the highest concentration of air raid alerts, totaling 50 occurrences. In contrast, the Ternopil and Ivano-Frankivsk regions had a minimal number of air raid alerts, with only 5 recorded occurrences each.
Analysis of Conflict Development
Recent updates in the Ukraine conflict suggest potential shifts in tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTP), which could have far-reaching implications for the conflict's trajectory in the near future. Reports indicate a notable increase in hybrid warfare tactics, including cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns targeting both military and civilian infrastructure. This suggests an evolving strategy to undermine Ukraine's stability beyond traditional battlefield engagements.
Leadership changes have also emerged as a significant development. New announcements indicate a reshuffling of top military personnel, potentially signifying adjustments in strategic direction. Such changes may lead to alterations in operational tactics and coordination among different units. Furthermore, the influx of foreign fighters, equipment, and military advisors on both sides has the potential to introduce novel combat techniques, potentially escalating the conflict's intensity.
In terms of equipment and infrastructure developments, recent reports suggest the deployment of advanced weapon systems, including long-range artillery and anti-ship missiles, which could alter the dynamics of engagements and complicate defensive strategies. Additionally, developments in electronic warfare capabilities have the potential to disrupt communication and surveillance systems, further shaping the battlespace.
In the coming weeks and months, the conflict's course could be influenced by these developments. A mix of traditional and hybrid tactics might lead to an increasingly complex battlefield, with information warfare playing a more prominent role. Leadership changes could either introduce more aggressive approaches or open doors to diplomatic solutions. As both sides incorporate advanced weaponry and tactics, the potential for more intense and unpredictable confrontations could reshape the conflict's trajectory.
SecurityACCESS Ukraine
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Ukraine Core Capabilities
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