Publish Date: 20MAR2024
Security & Geopolitical Analyst: MF
Contributing Authors: CT, MSO, ML
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Summary
Over the past 7 days, a series of significant events have taken place that are directly or indirectly linked to the ongoing Ukrainian conflict. These developments have captured the attention of both regional and global audiences:
Presidential elections were held in Russia from March 15th to March 17th
Switzerland has initiated the first criminal investigation into the violation of Russia sanctions
The Czech Republic has found an additional 700, 000 shells for Ukraine
UK Defense Minister Grant Shapps canceled his trip to Odesa due to a security threat
Residents were evacuated from 22 settlements near the Russian border in Sumy Oblast
Russia is increasingly recruiting mercenaries for the war with Ukraine
On March 15, major European leaders gathered to show solidarity with Ukraine
The European Commission (EC) is set to propose transferring €27 billion in profits from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine
The EU has given final approval for $5. 5 billion in military aid to Ukraine
Germany announces half-billion-dollar military aid package for Ukraine
Belgium is preparing a €412 million aid package for Ukraine
Portugal is set to allocate €100 million for aid to Ukraine
Japan has agreed to cooperate with the US in supporting Ukraine by providing weapons
Greece is considering delivering S-300 and Tor-M1 surface-to-air defense missile systems to Ukraine
Threat Mapping Updates
Mapping Analysis
As the war enters its third year, Russian forces have made slow and incremental gains along the front line, leveraging their firepower advantage. In response, Ukraine has retaliated with drone attacks deep inside Russia and cross-border raids.
Russia continued to apply pressure along the frontline, focusing on several tactical directions. At the moment, they are focused on pushing west in eastern Ukraine to prevent Ukrainian stabilization of defensive lines near Avdiivka. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi confirmed this, stating that Russian forces have concentrated their efforts on the Avdiivka direction and have been conducting daily mechanized and infantry assaults to break through Ukrainian defenses. He highlighted that Ukrainian troops defending the area near Avdiivka are facing intense artillery fire, the active use of FPV drones, periodic air strikes, and daily assaults from armored vehicles and assault troops. Positional engagements persisted along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, with activity reported northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka, southeast of Kupyansk near Tabaivka, west of Kreminna near Terny, and south of Kreminna near Bilohorivka. Additionally, there were reports of activity near Bakhmut, specifically near Rozdolivka and Bohdanivka, as well as near Ivanivske and east of Chasiv Yar, near Klishchiivka and Andriivka. No confirmed changes were reported in that section of the frontline. However, the latest reports indicate that Russian forces have recently advanced southwest of Velyka Novosilka amidst ongoing positional fighting in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area. Specifically, they have moved to a windbreak west of Pryyutne, which is southwest of Velyka Novosilka. Recent geolocated footage also indicates that a Russian armored column has recently advanced to the west of Tonenke. A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that an armored Russian group advanced west and reached the outskirts of Semenivka (west of Avdiivka), but did not proceed any further. He also claimed that Russian forces are facing challenges on the northern flank of Berdychi near Stepove (both northwest of Avdiivka) because Ukrainian forces still control tactical heights and are conducting counterattacks in the area. The commander of a Ukrainian battalion operating near Avdiivka has reported that Russian troops are evolving their tactics by transitioning from traditional Wagner Group-style infantry-led "meat assaults'' to utilizing armored vehicles for increased and sustained pressure on Ukrainian forces. Heavy shelling, supported by aviation and the use of drones, continues as well. Over the past seven days, multiple locations including Kyiv, Odesa, Kherson, Selydove, Kozacha Lopan, Zolochiv, and Slovyansk have been targeted, with Odesa having the most casualties. It is estimated that the Russians will continue their offensive to destabilize Ukrainian defensive lines, while also preparing for a new offensive in the summer of 2024.
In addition to repelling constant Russian attacks over the past week, Ukrainians were also active in targeting Russia's rear positions, with a particular emphasis on energy infrastructure. On March 15, a successful strike was conducted on an oil refinery in the Kaluga Region, followed by strikes on three more refineries during the night of March 15-16. The affected facilities were Novokuibyshevsk, Kuibyshevsky, and Syzran. Various sources claim that these refineries process a total of about 25 million tons of oil per year, which is almost 10% of all Russian oil refining. The activities continued on March 17, when Ukraine launched a massive drone attack targeting another refinery in Slavyansk in the Krasnodar region, as well as Moscow and six other regions. Specifically, Ukrainian drones targeted the Belgorod, Kursk, and Rostov regions bordering Ukraine, as well as the southern Krasnodar region. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the attack on the Yaroslavl region was particularly significant, given that the targeted location is placed approximately 800 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, marking one of the furthest launches by Ukrainians to date. In addition to the drone attack campaign, Ukrainians also responded to Russian pressure by shelling the border city of Belgorod and conducting cross-border raids in the Belgorod and Kursk regions. Even though Moscow claims its forces successfully neutralized 234 fighters attempting an incursion from Ukraine, the Russian Volunteer Corps, which includes Russians fighting alongside Ukrainian forces, released a video alleging that they captured positions on Russian territory near Tyotkino along with 25 Russian soldiers. Furthermore, on March 17, they announced the capture of both the village of Gorkovsky and the village of Kozinka, situated in the Belgorod region. According to the most recent reports, due to operations conducted by Russian military volunteer groups supporting Ukraine, Russian authorities have decided to evacuate 9, 000 children from Belgorod Oblast and all the residents of Grayvoron (Grayvoron district).
Priority Updates
Presidential elections were held in Russia from March 15th to March 17th
Presidential elections were held in Russia from March 15 to 17, 2024. According to preliminary exit polls announced by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center, Vladimir Putin is leading with 87% of the votes. He is followed by Nikolai Kharitonov from the Communist Party with 4. 6%. Vladislav Davankov from the New People party secured 4. 2% of the vote, while Leonid Slutsky, the leader of the LDPR (Liberal Democratic Party of Russia), received 3% of the vote. Approximately 1. 2% of the ballots were invalidated. The elections were conducted at polling stations and through remote electronic means. Remote voting took place in a total of 29 regions, including Moscow. The election was observed by 1, 115 international observers and experts from 129 countries. The newly elected president will serve a six-year term. Putin, who is expected to win based on initial results, will take the oath of office after the official announcement of results and serve as Russia's president for the fifth time. However, it should be noted that the elections were marked by controversy, as many claim that they were not conducted in a transparent and democratic manner. Germany labeled it a "pseudo-election," while the US declared that the vote was "clearly neither free nor fair." They pointed out that Putin had no credible opposition candidate, as the Kremlin tightly controls Russia's political system, media, and elections. The "Noon against Putin" initiative, organized by the opposition, led to long queues of voters forming at midday in Russian cities such as Moscow and St. Petersburg, as well as outside many embassies abroad. However, it did not have any impact on the outcome. Additionally, the election process was marred by sporadic vandalism and incidents. According to state media reports, incidents have involved green dye being poured into ballot boxes, the boxes being set alight, and fireworks being set off inside polling stations. Various reports indicate that there have been 11 attempts to set fire to polling stations in Russia and 19 cases of ballot boxes being spoiled with greenery and paint. Russian authorities have proposed eight-year prison sentences for those involved, while the monitoring group OVD-Info reported that at least 80 Russians were arrested. Voting also took place in the Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine: Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea. The overall turnout was 77%.
Switzerland has initiated the first criminal investigation into the violation of Russia sanctions
Swiss authorities have launched their first criminal investigation into an unspecified company for alleged violations of sanctions against Russia, as announced by the Swiss Attorney General's Office. According to the Financial Times, Swiss prosecutors suspect the company of circumventing Swiss law by using its foreign subsidiaries. Details about the company's operations were not disclosed.
The Czech Republic has found an additional 700, 000 shells for Ukraine
According to the Wall Street Journal, the Czech Republic has identified suppliers from whom it could potentially purchase an additional 700, 000 shells for Ukraine, pending the availability of funds. These suppliers are located in countries outside the European Union and NATO. Initially, the Czech Republic found an opportunity to purchase 800, 000 artillery shells from various suppliers around the world for the needs of the Ukrainian Defense Forces as part of its initiative. Subsequently, the Czech Republic announced that it planned to expand the initiative after the purchase of the first 800, 000 shells is funded.
UK Defense Minister Grant Shapps canceled his trip to Odesa due to a security threat
Last week, Grant Shapps had to cancel a trip to southern Ukraine for "security reasons," as stated by the UK defense ministry. The Defense Secretary made this decision after UK intelligence warned that Russia had become aware of his travel plans. He was scheduled to travel to Odesa the day after a missile struck the city while the Ukrainian president and the Greek prime minister were visiting. Ukrainian authorities reported that five people were killed in the strike.
Residents were evacuated from 22 settlements near the Russian border in Sumy Oblast
In the past five days alone, Russian attacks on settlements in Sumy Oblast have resulted in the deaths of 3 people and injuries to 13, according to the Ukrainian Regional Military Administration. As a result, all residents of 22 settlements in the three districts of Sumy Oblast near the Russian border have been evacuated. Regional authorities, in collaboration with the military and law enforcement, have coordinated the evacuation of a total of 4, 523 people, including 829 children.
Russia is increasingly recruiting mercenaries for the war with Ukraine
Russia is increasingly recruiting mercenaries from countries facing economic hardships to participate in the war against Ukraine. Petro Yatsenko, a representative of the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War, made this statement at a press conference at the Ukrinform Media Center. Yatsenko mentioned that a significant number of mercenaries are coming from Cuba, as Russian agitators operate freely there, leading to a growing number of individuals willing to join the conflict. Moreover, mercenaries from India, Africa, Nepal, and partly Serbia, as well as Latin America, Egypt, Jordan, and Iraq are also involved in the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Political Developments
On March 15, major European leaders gathered to show solidarity with Ukraine
On March 15, the leaders of France, Germany, and Poland gathered in Berlin to demonstrate unity regarding Ukraine. The meeting came after French President Emmanuel Macron's comments suggesting the possibility of sending European troops to Ukraine. The leaders met to establish shared priorities in supporting Ukraine, with a focus on improving defense industrial cooperation and dispelling any rumors of disunity. The day after the meeting, the French President stated in an interview published on the evening of Saturday, March 16, that Western ground operations in Ukraine might be necessary "at some point." While the French president has not recanted from his position, he stressed that Western allies would not take the initiative.
The European Commission (EC) is set to propose transferring €27 billion in profits from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine
EU leaders plan to take a significant step towards confiscating €27 billion in profits from Russia's frozen sovereign assets in Europe to offer military aid to Ukraine. According to sources, EC officials are prepared to present a legally sound proposal to EU member states, possibly before the prime ministers' meeting in Brussels on March 21. An unnamed senior EU official informed The Guardian that deposits in Europe could yield between €15 billion and €20 billion in after-tax profits by the end of 2027, depending on global interest rate dynamics.
The EU has given final approval for $5. 5 billion in military aid to Ukraine
EU foreign ministers have agreed to allocate an additional 5 billion euros in defense assistance for Ukraine in 2024 within the framework of the European Peace Facility (EPF), as announced by Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on March 18th.
Germany announces half-billion-dollar military aid package for Ukraine
Germany will allocate half a billion euros to purchase hundreds of thousands of rounds of ammunition to meet Ukraine’s urgent needs. The German Defense Minister announced this during a meeting of the Contact Group on Defense of Ukraine in the Ramstein format.
Belgium is preparing a €412 million aid package for Ukraine
The government of Belgium has approved the allocation of a new military aid package for Ukraine totaling €412 million. This package will consist of 300 Lynx LMV armored vehicles manufactured by IVECO and three minesweepers from the Alkmaar class.
Portugal is set to allocate €100 million for aid to Ukraine
According to the official website of the Portuguese government, €100 million will be allocated by the Portuguese government to the Czech initiative for purchasing artillery shells for Ukraine.
Japan has agreed to cooperate with the US in supporting Ukraine by providing weapons
Japan has officially agreed to cooperate with the U.S. in supporting Ukraine with weapons and military equipment. The official discussion of cooperation for "co-production" will take place at the US-Japan summit in Washington, DC on April 10, 2024.
Greece is considering delivering S-300 and Tor-M1 surface-to-air defense missile systems to Ukraine
Greece is reconsidering the delivery of its Russian-made S-300 PMU1 and Tor-M1 surface-to-air defense missile systems to Ukraine following a recent Russian military strike near its Prime Minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, during a visit to Ukraine on March 6, 2024.
Analysis of Priority & Political Updates
The global show of support for Ukraine has significant political ramifications on both regional and international levels. The backing from various nations underscores the complexity of the conflict and its implications for global security dynamics. As countries vocally condemn Russia's actions and express solidarity with Ukraine, diplomatic tensions rise, potentially leading to shifts in alliances and geopolitical strategies.
The United States and its NATO allies have been particularly vocal in their support for Ukraine, signaling a unified stance against Russian aggression and a commitment to upholding international norms and territorial integrity. This collective stance amplifies diplomatic pressure on Russia, potentially leading to sanctions and other punitive measures.
Furthermore, the global support for Ukraine underscores the importance of international law and norms in addressing conflicts and maintaining a rules-based international order. It serves as a reminder that actions violating sovereignty and territorial integrity are met with widespread condemnation and potential consequences, thus influencing the calculus of nations engaged in such activities.
The political impact of global support for Ukraine extends beyond the immediate conflict, potentially affecting broader diplomatic relations and regional stability. The unity of nations in support of Ukraine could embolden other nations to rally against aggression and assert their interests through international cooperation. However, it also raises the stakes of the conflict, increasing the potential for escalation and necessitating careful diplomatic navigation to prevent a wider crisis.
Conflict Zone Updates
As conflicts evolve, the enhancement of military technology and equipment progresses.
The Russian Ministry of Defense recently emphasized in an official statement a successful operation carried out by Su-34 aircraft in the Avdiivka sector in Ukraine. They utilized FAB-500 bombs equipped with a universal planning and correction module for accurate targeting. The newest version, the FAB-1500 (ФАБ-1500), contains 675kg of explosives and has a firing range of 40 km to 70 km from the target. It has a destruction radius of 200 meters and can adjust its trajectory using satellite or laser-based navigation, greatly enhancing its precision. Russian war bloggers have nicknamed this bomb the "building destroyer." In addition to the new glide bombs, the Russian Army is also planning to soon induct a ship-launched kamikaze drone to help fend off the increasing Ukrainian marine drone attacks on naval vessels. According to the Russian Navy, the unidentified drone is capable of being launched from the decks of ships and boats, enabling it to strike both land and sea targets. However, it should be noted that despite its advantages, military experts say that the technology is challenging to master due to the lack of landmarks at sea. If these challenges can be overcome, the use of this technology could potentially help prevent further losses of the Russian fleet in the Black Sea, which has already sustained significant damage. It was also indicated last week that, in addition to using glide bombs, artillery, and infantry-first assaults to weaken the Ukrainian garrison, the Russians attempted to utilize a ZS-88 psychological operations vehicle near the city of Avdiivka to broadcast a message and put additional pressure on the Ukrainian soldiers. It should be noted that successful psyops, such as the U. S. military's radio and leaflet campaigns in Kuwait and Iraq in 1991, helped convince over 100, 000 outgunned Iraqi troops to surrender. However, according to reports from the field, in this case, it only prompted Ukrainian forces to disable and apparently capture at least one of the loudspeaker vehicles.
Regarding the Ukrainians, last week they announced the mass production of various types of military ground robots. These robots include strike platforms, turrets, and equipment capable of destroying Russian positions and equipment. Additionally, they have been tested for tasks like mining, demining, evacuating the wounded, and delivering ammunition to positions. Robots like these have previously only been seen on a small scale, which may indicate a significant shift. The main purpose of ground platforms is to minimize human involvement on the battlefield. According to the Ukrainian Minister of Digital Transformation, Mykhailo Fedorov, this is an asymmetric response to the enemy's numerical superiority. Among more than 50 different platforms specialized for various roles including combat, logistics, minelaying, and mine clearance, the most prominent are the D-21-11 with a turret mounting a machine gun, suitable for reconnaissance, defensive, and offensive operations; the Ratel S, a smaller wheeled robot capable of laying anti-tank mines or acting as a kamikaze; and the larger Ratel M, a cargo carrier with a capacity of 250 kg/550 pounds, currently used for supplying frontline positions. In addition to robots, Ukrainians are also upgrading their Cold War-era air defense systems. Due to the lack of modern air defense systems and the cessation of support from Western partners, Ukraine is forced to modernize its outdated air defense systems, such as the Strela-10 system. Experts at KB TECHNARI are modernizing an outdated anti-aircraft defense system by equipping it with a modern "Vali" optoelectronic complex. During the tests, the modernized Strela-10 complex successfully shot down 5 Russian drones of the Zala, Lancet, and Supercam types. Ukrainians have also tested the so-called floating body armor. Reports indicate that the Ministry of Defence is currently testing two floating module samples produced by Ukrainian and foreign manufacturers. These modules are designed for naval forces, pontoon units, special operations forces, and certain special forces within air assault units. The floating module is attached to the body armor and can support the weight of the soldier and additional equipment, totaling 27 kilograms.
The development of military technology and equipment is expected to continue, with a focus on drones and electronic warfare assets. Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, confirmed this, highlighting that the confrontation between drones and electronic warfare at the contact line has become crucial. As he pointed out, the first country to outpace its opponent in the arms race will have a chance to emerge victorious.
Air Raid Frequency Updates
In the field, having accurate and up-to-date information about air raid alerts is crucial for the safety and efficiency of personnel. Understanding the frequency, duration, and location of these alerts provides valuable insight that can significantly impact decision-making on the ground. Armed with this knowledge, personnel can plan their movements more strategically, avoiding high-risk areas during times of increased alert activity. With the help of this vital information, they can ensure safer operations while maximizing their resources effectively.
By analyzing the available information from March 14 to March 20, several key points can be observed:
In contrast to the previous week, when the highest peak of air raid alerts occurred at 8 AM followed by another peak at 6 PM, this week saw the highest peak at 1 PM followed by another at 4 PM.
Furthermore, it is worth mentioning that the majority of Air Raid Alerts typically lasted between 30 minutes and 1 hour, with a total of 259 occurrences. It was rare to encounter Air Raid Alerts that lasted between 2 and 2. 5 hours, which only occurred 10 times.
Moreover, there has been a slight shift in the pattern of eventful days for Air Raid Alerts compared to the previous period. In the previous reporting period, Monday had the highest frequency of Air Raid Alerts. However, recent data from the past week reveals a noticeable change. Thursday emerged as the most eventful day, with 110 occurrences, closely followed by Tuesday, Friday, and Sunday, each with 82 occurrences. In contrast, Wednesday had the lowest frequency, with only 47 reported Air Raid Alerts.
Finally, it was discovered that the Kharkiv region had the highest concentration of Air Raid Alerts, totaling 82 occurrences. In contrast, the Zakarpattia region had a minimal number of air raid alerts, with only 4 occurrences recorded.
Analysis of Conflict Development
Recent updates in the Ukraine conflict suggest potential shifts in tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTP), which could have far-reaching implications for the conflict's trajectory in the near future. Reports indicate a notable increase in hybrid warfare tactics, including cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns targeting both military and civilian infrastructure. This suggests an evolving strategy to undermine Ukraine's stability beyond traditional battlefield engagements.
Leadership changes have also emerged as a significant development. New announcements indicate a reshuffling of top military personnel, potentially signifying adjustments in strategic direction. Such changes may lead to alterations in operational tactics and coordination among different units. Furthermore, the influx of foreign fighters, equipment, and military advisors on both sides has the potential to introduce novel combat techniques, potentially escalating the conflict's intensity.
In terms of equipment and infrastructure developments, recent reports suggest the deployment of advanced weapon systems, including long-range artillery and anti-ship missiles, which could alter the dynamics of engagements and complicate defensive strategies. Additionally, developments in electronic warfare capabilities have the potential to disrupt communication and surveillance systems, further shaping the battlespace.
In the coming weeks and months, the conflict's course could be influenced by these developments. A mix of traditional and hybrid tactics might lead to an increasingly complex battlefield, with information warfare playing a more prominent role. Leadership changes could either introduce more aggressive approaches or open doors to diplomatic solutions. As both sides incorporate advanced weaponry and tactics, the potential for more intense and unpredictable confrontations could reshape the conflict's trajectory.
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