RileySENTINEL: Ukraine Report

Weekly Security & Geopolitical Reporting and Analysis on the Ukraine Conflict

UA/RU Conflict


Publish Date: 27MAR2024
Security & Geopolitical Analyst: MF
Contributing Authors: CT, MSO, ML

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Summary

Over the past 7 days, a series of significant events have taken place that are directly or indirectly linked to the ongoing Ukrainian conflict. These developments have captured the attention of both regional and global audiences:

  • The Kremlin has stated that Russia is 'in a state of war' in Ukraine for the first time

  • A major terrorist attack occurred in Moscow

  • Zelensky dismisses Ukraine's Security Council secretary and appoints a replacement

  • The IMF has approved an $880 million loan payment for Ukraine

  • Brussels proposes steep EU tariffs on Russian grain

  • Poland is demanding an explanation from Moscow after accusing Russia of violating its airspace

  • Ukraine has received 500, 000 artillery shells from the EU

  • The Netherlands pledges $164 million in F-16 ammunition for Ukraine

  • Kosovo will hand over armored vehicles, trucks, and mortar rounds to Ukraine

  • Estonia is set to send a new package of military aid to Ukraine

  • Finland is allocating €30 million for aid to Ukraine

  • Lithuania allocates €35 million to support the Czech initiative for Ukraine's artillery ammunition and provides Ukraine with anti-drone systems

  • Australia will join the Drone Coalition

  • The UK has allocated £60 million for military assistance to Ukraine

Threat Mapping Updates

Mapping Analysis

Following a series of successful Ukrainian strikes on Russia's energy sector last week, Moscow retaliated with a significant strike on Ukraine's energy infrastructure on March 21-22. Russian forces deployed 151 drones and missiles, including various types targeting 136 energy facilities across multiple regions. This attack caused extensive damage to facilities in Zaporizhia, Khmelnytskyi, Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Mykolaiv, Vinnytsia, Lviv, and Ivano-Frankivsk oblasts, marking the largest assault on Ukrainian energy infrastructure since the start of the full-scale war in early 2022. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian strikes have left over one million consumers without power across the country. This includes 700, 000 residents in the eastern region of Kharkiv, at least 200, 000 in the southern region of Odesa, 200, 000 in the southeastern region of Dnipropetrovsk, and another 110, 000 in the central region of Poltava. The strikes also caused water and other outages, but Ukrainian authorities have since restored these services. Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, sustained the most damage, according to officials, and the attack occurred a day after Russia fired 31 missiles into the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv. Despite Russian forces failing to destroy Ukraine's energy system on March 22nd, experts have concluded that they may aim to continue intensive attacks on energy infrastructure in the next series of strikes, exploiting the ongoing delays in Western security assistance that severely limit Ukraine's air defense capabilities. The massive airstrike on critical infrastructure in Lviv on March 24th only confirmed their assertion. In addition to aerial strikes, the Russians also continued to apply pressure on the ground, making tactical advancements near Kreminna, Avdiivka, Donetsk City, and the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area amidst ongoing positional engagements along the entire line of contact. The most recent geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces have recently advanced east of Terny (west of Kreminna) and within Tonenke (west of Avdiivka), as well as in southern Novomykhailivka (southwest of Donetsk City) and west of Staromayorske (south of Velyka Novosilka). According to Ukrainian military officials, Russian forces are deploying all available resources to the Lyman, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka directions to sustain ongoing offensive operations and maintain the advantage of holding the theater-wide initiative in Ukraine. They have amassed approximately 100, 000 personnel along the Kharkiv-Luhansk axis, around 50, 000 near Bakhmut (as of fall 2023), over 50, 000 near Avdiivka, and are reportedly trying to gather a group of about 50, 000 personnel in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Moreover, as per the same source, Moscow is currently assembling a new troop contingent of over 100, 000 soldiers for a potential summer offensive.

Under constant pressure from the Russians, both from the air and on the ground, the Ukrainian military is primarily focused on strengthening its defenses. Over the past week, they have been particularly focused on enhancing defensive fortifications and establishing new defensive lines in the Chernihiv region. Additionally, multiple sources have indicated that the Ukrainian military command is prioritizing rotations for frontline units to tackle manpower challenges and potentially gain the initiative, at least on a localized basis, in 2024. Despite some tactical advancements made by Russian troops in recent weeks, Ukrainian defenders have managed to prevent them from breaking through key settlements such as Lyman, also known as The Gates of Donbas, while inflicting heavy losses on the enemy. For instance, by effectively utilizing drone technology, they destroyed 88 Russian tanks since the beginning of March this year. On March 23 alone, they eliminated another 1050 Russian soldiers and 12 additional tanks. Furthermore, despite their severely limited air defense capabilities, Ukrainians have managed to thwart a substantial portion of Russian aerial attacks. Kyiv officials reported that Ukrainian forces shot down 92 out of 151 Russian aerial assets used during the attacks on March 21-22, including 55 Shahed drones, 35 Kh-101/55 missiles, and two Kh-59 missiles. Additionally, Ukrainians have continued to carry out strikes in Russia's rear and Crimea. For example, at the start of last week, they launched a night attack on Russia's Engels military airbase in Saratov Oblast, with additional drone strikes reported in Bryansk, Belgorod, and Voronezh regions. Despite US officials urging Kyiv to halt strikes on Russian oil refineries, Ukrainians still targeted the Kuibyshev oil refinery in Russia's Samara region on March 23, as well as the Novokuibyshevsk refinery. On the same day, Sevastopol also endured a significant attack when Ukrainians launched over 10 Storm Shadow missiles, causing damage to critical infrastructure, including the Belbek airfield. The following day, they targeted two Russian landing ships near Cape Fiolent, Yamal and Azov, a communications center, and other military and energy facilities. According to recent statements from Kyiv military officials, assaults on Crimea will continue.

Priority Updates

  • The Kremlin has stated that Russia is 'in a state of war' in Ukraine for the first time

    Until recently, the Kremlin maintained that the attack on Ukraine, which began on February 24, 2022, was merely a "special military operation" aimed at ensuring the "demilitarization and denazification" of Ukraine. This terminology suggested that the operation had a restricted scope, with the term "war" being effectively prohibited. However, the Kremlin has recently stated that Russia now considers itself to be at "war" as a result of the Western intervention and support for Ukraine. "We are in a state of war. Yes, it started as a special military operation, but as soon as this group was formed, and the collective West became involved on the side of Ukraine, it became a war for us," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told Arguments and Facts, a weekly newspaper based in the country. When asked to elaborate, Peskov later told reporters, "Legally, it is a special military operation. But in reality, it has turned into a war."

  • A major terrorist attack occurred in Moscow

    On Friday, 22 March, a terrorist attack took place at Crocus City Hall, located on the outskirts of Moscow, approximately 20 km (12 miles) from the Kremlin. The attack resulted in 137 fatalities and at least 154 injuries. The search for potential additional victims is still ongoing. The day after the attack, four suspected gunmen responsible for it were apprehended near Russia's western border with Ukraine. They were promptly brought before the court and pleaded guilty to committing a terror attack. Seven others have been detained, and the search for additional accomplices continues, as reported by various sources. Despite ISIS claiming responsibility for the attack and US officials confirming the claim, Moscow insinuated that Ukraine may have been involved in the incident without providing clear evidence. Ukrainian officials have denied any involvement in the tragedy and have accused the Kremlin of manipulating the massacre to justify increased pressure on Ukraine and discredit Kyiv in the eyes of the international community. An official investigation regarding the attack is still in progress.

  • Zelensky dismisses Ukraine's Security Council secretary and appoints a replacement

    President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov on March 26, as announced on the Presidential Office’s official website. Danilov had served in this position since October 3, 2019, shortly after the start of Zelensky's term. He will be succeeded by Olexander Lytynenko, the former head of the foreign intelligence service.

  • The IMF has approved an $880 million loan payment for Ukraine

    The International Monetary Fund’s executive board approved a third review of Ukraine’s $15. 6 billion loan program on March 21. This decision allows the release of $880 million for budget support, bringing total disbursements to $5. 4 billion, according to the IMF. The global lender highlighted that risks for Ukraine remain exceptionally high, especially concerning the uncertainties related to the conflict with Russia and the outlook for external financing. However, Ukraine's mission chief Gavin Gray informed reporters that the IMF still anticipates the conflict in Ukraine to de-escalate by the end of 2024. He stated that Ukraine's overall performance on the IMF program had remained strong in its first year, meeting all but one of the quantitative performance criteria. The only shortfall was in tax revenues, which was a minor issue. He mentioned that Ukraine is expected to receive the funds in the coming days, which should be welcomed news as the US Congress deliberates on approving a $61 billion supplemental aid package for Ukraine. Gray highlighted that the IMF would need to assess the impact on Ukraine's debt levels if US lawmakers opt to convert some of the funding into a loan rather than a grant.

  • Brussels proposes steep EU tariffs on Russian grain

    The European Commission has proposed a significant increase in tariffs on Russian grain entering the bloc's common market. This measure would affect cereals, oilseeds, and related products such as vegetable oil originating in Russia and destined for sale in any of the 27 member states. Similar goods from Belarus, a close ally of Vladimir Putin known to support his disruptive actions, would also be subject to these tariffs. Under the proposal, the EU would impose a €95-per-tonne tariff on Russian maize and wheat, a significant increase from the current zero duties. Other products would face an "ad valorem duty" of 50% to align with the anticipated rise. The figures are set to be sufficiently high to deter the purchase of Russian grain, which totaled 4. 2 million tones valued at €1. 3 billion last year. In comparison, Belarus sold 610, 000 tones worth €246 million. While these amounts represent a small portion of all EU imports, the Commission is concerned that Russia, as one of the world's largest agricultural producers, could flood Europe with low-cost cereals and disrupt the market if Putin chooses to do so. This measure is essentially precautionary, as no major disruptions have been observed thus far.

  • Poland is demanding an explanation from Moscow after accusing Russia of violating its airspace

    Poland has demanded an explanation from Moscow after stating that a Russian cruise missile, intended for Ukraine, entered its territory on March 24 at 4:23 AM. This report follows Ukrainian officials' claims that Russia launched approximately 20 missiles and seven Shahed attack drones towards the western Ukrainian region of Lviv, near the Polish border. The Operational Command reported, "The object entered Polish airspace near the village of Oserdow (Lublin Voivodeship) and remained there for 39 seconds. It was tracked by military radar systems throughout its flight." The Russian ambassador ignored a summons to appear at Poland’s Foreign Ministry, stating that he wanted to see more "evidence" before agreeing to any meeting. Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz, Poland’s Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister, mentioned that Poland would determine its next steps in the coming days, as it could not overlook such "a sign of contempt" from the Russian ambassador.

  • Ukraine has received 500, 000 artillery shells from the EU

    The EU has delivered 500, 000 of the promised 1 million artillery shells to Ukraine and aims to deliver the total amount by the end of the year, as stated by the EU's top diplomat, Josep Borrell, in his blog on March 25th. In addition to the one million donated shells, another 400, 000 shells will be provided to Ukraine through commercial contracts with the European defense industry. The Czech initiative to purchase ammunition from non-EU sources complements these efforts. However, Borrell emphasized that more needs to be done, stressing the importance of boosting production capacity and financial resources to further support Ukraine.

Political Developments

  • The Netherlands pledges $164 million in F-16 ammunition for Ukraine

    Ukraine's F-16 fighter jet program is receiving further support from its NATO allies, with the Netherlands committing to provide Kyiv with $164 million in ammunition for the aircraft. Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren stated that the funds will be used to manufacture air-to-ground missiles compatible with F-16s. Additionally, the Netherlands has secured an extra $218. 7 million to produce Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) drones for Kyiv.

  • Kosovo will hand over armored vehicles, trucks, and mortar rounds to Ukraine

    Ejup Maqedonci, the Minister of Defense of Kosovo, has announced that his country will provide Ukraine with two military aid packages. The aid includes mortar rounds, trucks, and armored vehicles. Maqedonci emphasized that Kosovo will continue to support Ukraine in its heroic war against Russian aggression.

  • Estonia is set to send a new package of military aid to Ukraine

    Estonia has announced that it will send a new package of military aid worth 20 million euros to Ukraine. The aid will include artillery, ammunition, and equipment. The Ministry of Defense of Estonia made this announcement on March 21.

  • Finland is allocating €30 million for aid to Ukraine

    The Government of Finland has pledged €30 million to acquire artillery shells for Ukraine, following a Czech initiative. The announcement was made by Finnish Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen on the social media platform X. The timeline for the allocation of these funds was not specified. In addition to this support, Finland has joined Sweden and the Netherlands in providing landing crafts to Ukraine. The boats will be initially delivered to Romania, where Ukrainian crews will undergo necessary training. Finnish media reports suggest that the vessels being transferred are similar to the Swedish CB90 military assault crafts.

  • Lithuania allocates €35 million to support the Czech initiative for Ukraine's artillery ammunition and provides Ukraine with anti-drone systems

    Lithuania has joined the Czech initiative to purchase artillery ammunition for Ukraine and has allocated a €35 million financial package to support this effort. This announcement was made by Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė on her official account. In a separate announcement, it was stated that Lithuania has delivered its anti-drone systems to Ukraine.

  • Australia will join the Drone Coalition

    Australia is set to join the Drone Coalition, led by Latvia and the United Kingdom. The coalition aims to provide drones to Ukraine's Defense Forces. Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles announced this decision during a joint press conference with UK Secretary of State for Defense Grant Shapps. Previously, Australia had already provided drones for the Ukrainian Defense Forces.

  • The UK has allocated £60 million for military assistance to Ukraine

    The United Kingdom is allocating a £60 million package of military support from the UK-administered International Fund for Ukraine. According to the UK Ministry of Defence, this funding will be used to purchase drones for the Ukrainian Defense Forces. The package also includes £20 million for providing air defense systems to help ensure the safety of Ukraine’s skies.

Analysis of Priority & Political Updates

The global show of support for Ukraine has significant political ramifications on both regional and international levels. The backing from various nations underscores the complexity of the conflict and its implications for global security dynamics. As countries vocally condemn Russia's actions and express solidarity with Ukraine, diplomatic tensions rise, potentially leading to shifts in alliances and geopolitical strategies.

The United States and its NATO allies have been particularly vocal in their support for Ukraine, signaling a unified stance against Russian aggression and a commitment to upholding international norms and territorial integrity. This collective stance amplifies diplomatic pressure on Russia, potentially leading to sanctions and other punitive measures.

Furthermore, the global support for Ukraine underscores the importance of international law and norms in addressing conflicts and maintaining a rules-based international order. It serves as a reminder that actions violating sovereignty and territorial integrity are met with widespread condemnation and potential consequences, thus influencing the calculus of nations engaged in such activities.

The political impact of global support for Ukraine extends beyond the immediate conflict, potentially affecting broader diplomatic relations and regional stability. The unity of nations in support of Ukraine could embolden other nations to rally against aggression and assert their interests through international cooperation. However, it also raises the stakes of the conflict, increasing the potential for escalation and necessitating careful diplomatic navigation to prevent a wider crisis.

Conflict Zone Updates

The development of military technology continues to be one of the most crucial aspects of the Russo-Ukrainian war, with both sides enhancing their equipment and military assets. After sustaining significant losses with its Black Sea Fleet, Russia has begun deploying decoy ships in the Black Sea to counter Ukraine's attacks. Recent reports indicate that a mock conning tower has been constructed on a pier at a key naval base in the Black Sea. Furthermore, Russia is camouflaging its ships with black paint to make them appear smaller and less attractive as targets. The UK Ministry of Defense has observed that silhouettes of vessels have been painted on quaysides, likely to deceive Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicle operators. However, one of the most significant and unusual modifications was noted on March 22nd, when a recent report on Russian state television revealed a cage-like structure surrounding the conning tower of the Russian Delta-IV class nuclear ballistic missile submarine, the Tula. Experts speculate that this represents improvised anti-drone armor, marking the first time such a defense has been implemented on a naval vessel. The so-called "cope cage" is believed to be designed to mitigate the devastating effects of attacks from above. This adaptation highlights Russia's growing concerns over the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone strikes during the ongoing conflict. The utility of this cage-like armor in an underwater environment is a matter of debate among military analysts. Some doubt its effectiveness against submersible attacks, while others suggest it might have value against smaller, commercially available drones potentially used for reconnaissance or modified to carry payloads. In addition to naval improvements, the Russian defense industry has recently made significant strides in enhancing the capabilities of its T-90M tanks by equipping them with a newly developed type of Explosive Reactive Armor (ERA). The advanced ERA is mounted around the turret and on the sides of the tank's hull, offering a strong shield against anti-tank weapons. It functions by triggering a controlled explosion upon impact, neutralizing the penetrating power of incoming projectiles. Experts assert that this technology plays a crucial role in protecting tanks from the dangers presented by sophisticated anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) and rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs), commonly encountered in the Russo-Ukrainian war. Furthermore, during the recent air attacks on Ukraine, Russia utilized its modernized 3M22 Zircon missiles.

Ukrainians appear to be more focused on advancing drone technologies, as various types of drones have demonstrated high efficiency during the conflict. In addition to introducing Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs), which they claim will be the next game-changer in this war, they have recently unveiled a new kamikaze drone as well. A specific characteristic of this type of drone is its almost primitive simplicity, with all materials used in assembly being improvised, accessible, and extremely cost-effective. According to reports, it is a fairly large drone assembled from plywood boards and sheathed with dense polyethylene. The drone has a fuel tank made from 5-liter water bottles, a tail constructed from a water pipe, and avionics housed inside a plywood box. Experts note that the most costly components in this type of drone are a small-sized internal combustion engine and a flight control system. Furthermore, Ukrainians also demonstrated the use of a new, more advanced, and more expensive type of FPV drone equipped with autonomous targeting capabilities. This type of drone reportedly demonstrated its ability to strike targets without direct operator commands, marking a new milestone in Ukrainian military tactics. Specifically, after the drone's guidance system locks onto a target, it can continue to attack the target in automatic mode and successfully hit it, even if communication is disrupted by enemy electronic warfare in the meantime. Despite the higher price tag compared to standard FPV drones priced at around $500, experts agree that it is essential to consider the cost-effectiveness of target engagement. A conservative estimate suggests that it typically takes 3-4 regular FPV drones to engage a single target, as potential interference from enemy electronic warfare and the operator's skill level can influence direct hits. In contrast, drones equipped with automatic targeting not only bypass electronic warfare interference but also reduce the operator's skill requirements. Therefore, drones equipped with automatic targeting may have higher initial costs; however, the overall expenses for engagement and target destruction are significantly lower compared to manually controlled FPV drones. Moreover, according to the latest reports, Ukrainians have also included an optical fiber FPV drone in their arsenal. The transition from radio channels to optical fiber in FPV drones marks a significant advancement, especially in military applications. The prototype, known as Banderyk-Strichka, features a payload capacity of up to 3 kg, a 15-minute flight duration, and a tactical radius of 1 km. In contrast to its Russian equivalent, this drone utilizes a thinner optical fiber, allowing it to perform aggressive maneuvers without compromising the fiber's integrity. In addition to new drones, it should be noted that Ukrainians are also preparing to start production of their own 155mm shells in the second half of 2024, develop their own version of the NASAMS air defense system, and a long-range missile capable of reaching up to 700 kilometers.

Air Raid Frequency Updates

In the field, having accurate and up-to-date information about air raid alerts is crucial for the safety and efficiency of personnel. Understanding the frequency, duration, and location of these alerts provides valuable insight that can significantly impact decision-making on the ground. Armed with this knowledge, personnel can plan their movements more strategically, avoiding high-risk areas during times of increased alert activity. With the help of this vital information, they can ensure safer operations while maximizing their resources effectively. 

By analyzing the available information from March 21 to March 27, several key points can be observed:

  • In contrast to the previous week, which had the highest peak of air raid alerts at 1 PM followed by another at 4 PM, this week experienced multiple peaks at 3 AM, 9 AM, 2 PM, 5 PM, and 8 PM.

  • Furthermore, it is worth mentioning that the majority of Air Raid Alerts typically lasted between 30 minutes and 1 hour, with a total of 155 occurrences. It was rare to encounter Air Raid Alerts that lasted between 1. 5 and 2 hours, which only occurred 16 times.

  • Moreover, there has been a slight shift in the pattern of eventful days for Air Raid Alerts compared to the previous period. In the previous reporting period, Thursday had the highest frequency of Air Raid Alerts. However, recent data from the past week reveals a noticeable change. Saturday emerged as the most eventful day, with 83 occurrences, closely followed by Sunday, Friday, and Monday, with 79, 74, and 67 occurrences, respectively. In contrast, Thursday had the lowest frequency, with only 49 reported Air Raid Alerts.

  • Finally, it was discovered that the Kharkiv region had the highest concentration of Air Raid Alerts, totaling 51 occurrences. In contrast, the Lviv region had a minimal number of air raid alerts, with only 5 occurrences recorded.

Analysis of Conflict Development

Recent updates in the Ukraine conflict suggest potential shifts in tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTP), which could have far-reaching implications for the conflict's trajectory in the near future. Reports indicate a notable increase in hybrid warfare tactics, including cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns targeting both military and civilian infrastructure. This suggests an evolving strategy to undermine Ukraine's stability beyond traditional battlefield engagements.

Leadership changes have also emerged as a significant development. New announcements indicate a reshuffling of top military personnel, potentially signifying adjustments in strategic direction. Such changes may lead to alterations in operational tactics and coordination among different units. Furthermore, the influx of foreign fighters, equipment, and military advisors on both sides has the potential to introduce novel combat techniques, potentially escalating the conflict's intensity.

In terms of equipment and infrastructure developments, recent reports suggest the deployment of advanced weapon systems, including long-range artillery and anti-ship missiles, which could alter the dynamics of engagements and complicate defensive strategies. Additionally, developments in electronic warfare capabilities have the potential to disrupt communication and surveillance systems, further shaping the battlespace.

In the coming weeks and months, the conflict's course could be influenced by these developments. A mix of traditional and hybrid tactics might lead to an increasingly complex battlefield, with information warfare playing a more prominent role. Leadership changes could either introduce more aggressive approaches or open doors to diplomatic solutions. As both sides incorporate advanced weaponry and tactics, the potential for more intense and unpredictable confrontations could reshape the conflict's trajectory.


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