Publish Date: 03APR2024
Security & Geopolitical Analyst: MF
Contributing Authors: CT, MSO, ML
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Summary
Over the past 7 days, a series of significant events have taken place that are directly or indirectly linked to the ongoing Ukrainian conflict. These developments have captured the attention of both regional and global audiences:
The Kyiv Defense Council has decided to enhance security measures in the capital
Poland is set to construct a new military air base in response to multiple Russian missile intrusions
Russian network dismantled for bribing European politicians
The Ukrainian President signed three bills to strengthen the fighting force
Ukraine receives a $1. 5 billion funding tranche as part of the World Bank programme
Sweden considers supplying Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine
A Russian journalist who covered Navalny's trials has been jailed in Moscow on charges of extremism
NATO is considering shooting down Russian missiles that approach its borders
Germany has delivered a new military aid package to Ukraine
The Armored Vehicle Coalition for Ukraine was launched in Poland
Poland has doubled its contribution to the Czech ammunition initiative for Kyiv
The EU is moving to tighten rules on agricultural imports from Ukraine
France will provide a new aid package to Ukraine
Threat Mapping Updates
Mapping Analysis
Last week began with Russia intensifying its air campaign throughout Ukraine, targeting multiple locations, including the capital Kyiv and energy facilities across the country. In addition to weakening Ukrainian morale and as retribution for recent long-range strikes on Russian soil, one of Russia's goals is to deplete Ukraine's inventory of ground-based air defense, as stated in a recent military assessment published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). On March 27, after targeting Kharkiv, Sumy, and Kyiv, the attacks continued the next day with missiles and Shahed drones launched from the waters of the Black Sea, Crimea, and Kursk Oblast. On March 29, Moscow initiated a large-scale attack on Ukraine's energy infrastructure by launching a mass barrage of 99 drones and missiles that struck regions across the country. Air raid warnings were issued nationwide, with 10 Ukrainian regions being affected. Ukraine's state-owned grid operator, Ukrenergo, has reported that the attack deliberately targeted thermal and hydroelectric power plants in central and western regions. Kyiv has confirmed that Ukraine's Kaniv and Dniester hydroelectric power stations were damaged, along with infrastructure in the Kamianske district near the city of Dnipro. The day after, Ukrainian officials also reported that Russian Shahed drones damaged an infrastructure facility in Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, and Cherkasy Oblasts, while Russian S-300 missiles damaged power lines in Selydove, Donetsk Oblast. DTEK, the largest Ukrainian private power firm, lost more than half of its capacity as a consequence of the attacks. The airstrike campaign was complemented by ground pressure, with Russian offensive operations remaining focused on the Lyman direction. Positional engagements were observed in multiple locations along the front line, including near Bakhmut, around Avdiivka, near the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area, near Staromayorske and Pryyutne, and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast. However, Moscow forces also made some limited advancements. According to various sources, Russians recently resumed assaults in the Siversk direction (northeast of Bakhmut) and made new territorial gains. Russian military bloggers claim that Russian forces also advanced to the northwest and southwest of Avdiivka on March 29 and March 30, as well as in and around Novomykhailivka, located southwest of Donetsk City. Geolocated footage indicates that they recently advanced in central Novomykhailivka and in the fields north of the settlement. The Institute for the Study of War reported that since the start of offensive operations in October 2023, Russians have seized 505 square kilometers of Ukraine's territory. In addition to carrying out intensive offensive operations, the Russian Army is also building up its defense capacities. In occupied Crimea, barriers are being constructed at the entrance to Sevastopol and Novorossiysk Bay to deter further Ukrainian strikes on the Black Sea fleet. Additionally, around 31 tanks have been relocated to the city of Yevpatoriia to strengthen the Crimean grouping.
Despite facing constant airstrikes and ground pressure from the Russians, Ukrainians managed to slightly decrease the intensity of the Russian offensive actions on the Avdiivka front and repel their attacks on multiple locations, even in the face of manpower and equipment shortages. In this regard, the situation in the Bakhmut direction is particularly challenging. According to Ukrainian military officials, there are seven to ten Russian troops for every Ukrainian soldier. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian defenders are still holding their positions. A similar situation can be observed in Novomykhailivka, where Ukrainian forces are using FPV drones and cluster munitions in the area, significantly complicating Russian efforts to advance. Over the past week, like many other locations, Kherson Oblast has also witnessed Russian forces launching multiple unsuccessful attacks on Ukrainian positions, resulting in heavy casualties. For instance, on March 27 alone, the Russian army lost 1, 030 troops and 11 tanks in Ukraine. Additionally, Ukrainian troops have successfully reclaimed three towns (Shabelne, Pischane, and Degtyarne) along the eastern border with Russia in the last seven days. On April 2, they also launched an attack on two factories in Tatarstan that assemble Shahed drones, located more than 1000 km away from Ukraine, and blew up a power substation in the temporarily occupied Sevastopol in Crimea. When it comes to the ongoing Russian airstrikes, it is worth noting that Ukrainians are still managing to intercept the majority of Russian missiles and drones. During the massive attack on March 29, when Russia utilized a total of 99 air attack assets, Ukrainian air defense shot down 84, including Russia’s newest Tsirkon missile, with the assistance of SAMP/T and Patriot systems. As concluded by Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief, Russian troops have failed to make significant advances on strategic sectors of the front, and their recent territorial gains are merely of tactical importance. However, as noted by the Ukrainian President, delays in US aid could potentially force Ukrainian troops to retreat in small steps. Meanwhile, dragon's teeth structures are being installed in Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts to strengthen the defenses.
Priority Updates
The Kyiv Defense Council has decided to enhance security measures in the capital
The Kyiv Defense Council convened an emergency meeting in response to recent statements made by the leaders of the aggressor country regarding their intentions to increase missile attacks on civilian targets and residents of Ukraine, especially Kyiv. In light of this information, the Council has decided on the following actions: 1) To urgently address the issue of upcoming events in Kyiv that involve large numbers of people; 2) To revise regulatory and administrative guidelines concerning public transport operations and the organization of sports, cultural, educational, medical, and entertainment events in the capital and crowded areas to ensure citizen safety; 3) All law enforcement and military agencies in the city of Kyiv should increase their attention to crowded places and ensure public safety and order in the capital in accordance with their powers. They should take all necessary measures to ensure the safety of Kyiv citizens; 4) All responsible agencies and facility managers of civil defense infrastructure should ensure that people have constant access to shelters and that the invincibility centers are ready for use. It is also important to note that social media will be monitored for the spread of disinformation, provocations, and any other information that could destabilize the situation in Kyiv.
Poland is set to construct a new military air base in response to multiple Russian missile intrusions
Poland's Ministry of National Defense, headed by Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, has announced plans to establish a permanent Helicopter Aviation Base for the Land Forces in Świdnik, near Lublin. This decision comes in response to multiple security breaches in Polish airspace, including an incident on March 24, 2024, when a Russian missile aimed at Ukrainian targets entered Polish airspace near the village of Osierdów in the Lublin Voivodeship.
Russian network dismantled for bribing European politicians
A Russian-backed "propaganda" network has been dismantled for disseminating anti-Ukraine stories and paying undisclosed European politicians, as reported by authorities in multiple countries. Investigators allege that the network utilized the Voice of Europe website to compensate politicians and influence European politics. The Czech Republic and Poland have both confirmed the network's intentions to sway European political landscapes. Czech media, citing intelligence sources, revealed that politicians from Germany, France, Poland, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Hungary received payments from Voice of Europe to influence upcoming European Parliament elections. It was reported that the money was either handed over in cash during covert meetings in Prague or through cryptocurrency exchanges. The Czech Republic alleges that pro-Russian Ukrainian oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk is behind the network.
The Ukrainian President signed three bills to strengthen the fighting force
Volodymyr Zelensky has signed a bill to lower the mobilization age for combat duty from 27 to 25. This decision aims to expand the pool of civilians that the army can mobilize to fight under martial law, which has been in effect since Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022. He also signed a second bill that requires men who were previously granted military waivers on disability grounds to undergo another medical assessment. A third bill has been signed to establish an online database of individuals eligible for military service. These measures have the potential to strengthen the military draft by increasing the pool of eligible fighters.
Ukraine receives a $1. 5 billion funding tranche as part of the World Bank programme
Ukraine received $1. 5 billion tranche of funding under a World Bank program, as announced by Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal on March 29th. This financial support will assist in covering budget and social spending as the country defends itself against the Russian invasion. In March, Kyiv successfully attracted approximately $9 billion in total external financing, according to the Finance Ministry. The European Union, Canada, Japan, the IMF, and Britain were among the contributing donors. The latest block of World Bank aid was funded by Britain and Japan.
Sweden considers supplying Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine
Sweden has recently expressed openness to potentially supplying its advanced Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine, as stated by the Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonson on March 28th. This decision follows Sweden's recent entry into NATO on March 7, 2024, which appears to have influenced Sweden's deliberation on this matter.
A Russian journalist who covered Navalny's trials has been jailed in Moscow on charges of extremism
A Moscow court has ordered Russian journalist Antonina Favorskaya, who reported on the trials of the late Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny and other dissidents, to stay in custody pending an investigation and trial on charges of extremism. Favorskaya, also known as Antonina Kravtsova, was arrested in March. The Basmanny District Court in Moscow ruled on March 29 that she must remain in pre-trial detention until at least May 28.
NATO is considering shooting down Russian missiles that approach its borders
NATO is considering shooting down Russian missiles that stray too close to its borders, according to Poland’s deputy foreign minister, Andrzej Szejna. Szejna stated, "(Russia) knew that if the missile moved further into Poland, it would be shot down. There would be a counterattack."
Political Developments
Germany has delivered a new military aid package to Ukraine
Germany has delivered a new batch of military aid to Ukraine, which includes artillery and tank ammunition, drones, mine-clearance vehicles, and various other equipment. Among the items provided are 18, 000 rounds of 155-mm ammunition and ammunition for Leopard 2A6 tanks sourced from the Bundeswehr's stockpile and German factories. Furthermore, Ukraine has received 14 Vector and 30 RQ-35 Heidrun reconnaissance UAVs, five Warthog tracked repair and recovery vehicles, nine Warthog tracked command all-terrain vehicles, six WISENT 1 mine-clearance vehicles, two BEAVER bridge pavers, one Bergepanzer 2 armored recovery vehicle, one 2A1 Dachs armored combat repair vehicle, nine mine trawlers, three border guard vehicles, and six Mercedes-Benz Zetros fuel tankers. The package also includes a SATCOM surveillance system, 330 infrared cameras, 2, 056 RGW90 Matador grenade launchers, 70 GMG grenade launchers, 3, 000 camouflage nets, 2, 000 ponchos, and 2 emergency power generators. Moreover, according to a representative from the German Defense Ministry, the German government will allocate €576 million to purchase 180, 000 artillery shells for Ukraine under the Czech initiative.
The Armored Vehicle Coalition for Ukraine was launched in Poland
The coalition of armored vehicles, which aims to enhance the capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, has commenced its operations in Poland. The inaugural meeting was held on March 26 in Warsaw, during which representatives from participating countries established a unified stance on bolstering the Ukrainian Armed Forces with specific types of armored vehicles and setting up a maintenance system for them. Poland and Germany initiated the coalition, with the United Kingdom, Sweden, and Italy agreeing to take part.
Poland has doubled its contribution to the Czech ammunition initiative for Kyiv
Poland has decided to double its commitment to the Czech-led initiative to purchase artillery shells for Ukraine, as announced by Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski in Riga on March 27. However, he did not provide a specific figure. Additionally, he mentioned that the transport of artillery shells for Ukraine, secured through the Czech-led initiative, is already being organized. The shipments of shells are expected to be completed in April.
The EU is moving to tighten rules on agricultural imports from Ukraine
Last week, the 27 EU member states reached a new compromise on customs requirements for certain Ukrainian agricultural products, as announced by the Belgian presidency of the Council of the EU. According to diplomats, the compromise specifies that fewer goods than originally planned will be permitted to be sold duty-free into the EU. The affected products include eggs, poultry, sugar, and maize. France and Poland had unsuccessfully lobbied to have wheat included in the list of Ukrainian farm products subject to the caps. Goods subject to these requirements will only be allowed to enter the EU duty-free up to a certain limit. Once this limit is reached, tariffs will be reinstated. In a statement on March 28, the lobby group Copa-Cogeca referred to the deal as a "half-response" that did not go far enough. They called for automatic tariffs on wheat and barley, as well as reduced quantities of goods such as eggs, poultry, and sugar that can enter the EU duty-free. EU Parliament is now expected to provide its final approval for the latest compromise agreement among member states.
France will provide a new aid package to Ukraine
France's defense minister has announced that Paris will deliver hundreds of armored personnel carriers as part of a new aid package to Ukraine in its conflict against Russia. Additionally, Paris will supply more Aster 30 anti-aircraft missiles for SAMP/T launchers, similar to the US-supplied Patriot air defense systems.
Analysis of Priority & Political Updates
The global show of support for Ukraine has significant political ramifications on both regional and international levels. The backing from various nations underscores the complexity of the conflict and its implications for global security dynamics. As countries vocally condemn Russia's actions and express solidarity with Ukraine, diplomatic tensions rise, potentially leading to shifts in alliances and geopolitical strategies.
The United States and its NATO allies have been particularly vocal in their support for Ukraine, signaling a unified stance against Russian aggression and a commitment to upholding international norms and territorial integrity. This collective stance amplifies diplomatic pressure on Russia, potentially leading to sanctions and other punitive measures.
Furthermore, the global support for Ukraine underscores the importance of international law and norms in addressing conflicts and maintaining a rules-based international order. It serves as a reminder that actions violating sovereignty and territorial integrity are met with widespread condemnation and potential consequences, thus influencing the calculus of nations engaged in such activities.
The political impact of global support for Ukraine extends beyond the immediate conflict, potentially affecting broader diplomatic relations and regional stability. The unity of nations in support of Ukraine could embolden other nations to rally against aggression and assert their interests through international cooperation. However, it also raises the stakes of the conflict, increasing the potential for escalation and necessitating careful diplomatic navigation to prevent a wider crisis.
Conflict Zone Updates
Advancements in military technology and equipment continued at the same pace as in the previous period, with both sides trying to utilize innovations on the battlefield.
Over the past week, Russia has been focusing on enhancing drones, armored vehicles, and aerial bombs. For instance, the Center for Integrated Unmanned Solutions has developed the Joker-10 FPV drone, which can be remotely powered off and on to reduce risks during transportation to battlefield positions or when relocating them to safer areas. According to Russian sources, Ukrainian EW systems have difficulty detecting these drones when they are in hibernation mode, a low-power state that significantly reduces their chances of being detected. These drones can remain in hibernation mode for up to a week in winter and a month in summer before being remotely activated by drone operators. In addition to the aforementioned, Russians have also introduced an innovation called Pchelka, a VTOL (Vertical Take-Off and Landing) craft powered by gas. It is specifically designed to transport an FPV drone underneath its structure. Notably, the Pchelka can fly to the limits of its operational range to deploy FPV drones, which can then utilize their maximum range capabilities, often extending several kilometers. The Pchelka's dimensions and weight are undisclosed, but it is estimated to be 1. 2-1. 5 meters in length with a similar wingspan and a payload capacity of around 3 kg. It has a range of up to 300 km and operational altitudes ranging from 50 to 2500 meters. Equipped with remote control and two-way communication, it carries a compact spherical optical-electronic system (OES) for reconnaissance, capable of day and/or night operations. During the past week, Russians also tested an unmanned tracked vehicle designed to evacuate wounded personnel and deliver ammunition under enemy fire. Additionally, they started utilizing a rare, highly protected autonomous armored vehicle called the Ladoga. This heavy command, staff, and special-purpose reconnaissance vehicle, based on a T-80 tank chassis, was initially deployed during the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in 1986 to conduct reconnaissance and assess the radioactive environment following the reactor explosion. Moreover, Ukrainian sources have reported that Russian forces have begun using modernized FAB-250 aerial bombs equipped with the Universal Joint Glide Munition (UMPB) as glide bombs to target frontline Ukrainian positions. They also reported that the D-30 UMPB was used for the first time in a glide bomb strike against Kharkiv City since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in 2022. Ukrainian Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration Head stated that the UMPB D-30 has a range of up to 90 kilometers and that Russian forces can launch the bomb from aircraft or ground-based Smerch multiple rocket launch systems (MLRS). According to Ukrainian officials, in the last seven days alone, Russia has struck Ukraine with 700 glide bombs.
Recently, Ukrainians have shown a growing interest in improving EW systems, remote vehicles, and GLSDB precision-guided bombs. The GLSDB, developed jointly by Boeing and Saab, was officially used for the first time last week in the Zaporizhzhia sector. This innovative weapon combines the propulsion of the M26 rocket with the gliding GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb (SDB), providing increased precision and an extended range of up to 150 kilometers. Weighing in at 250 pounds, this munition is equipped with an advanced guidance system that significantly reduces collateral damage and allows for precise strikes in all weather conditions. It can be launched from various platforms, including HIMARS and MLRS systems, enhancing the flexibility and effectiveness of forces on the battlefield. The GLSDB's ability to strike targets in 360 degrees and make directional changes to avoid obstacles or enemy-protected zones gives a significant tactical advantage. Additionally, the munition can be programmed for various explosion modes, maximizing damage against fortified or moving targets. What is intriguing about this advanced munition is that it enables Ukraine to reach and neutralize strategic targets far beyond the front lines, providing a considerable advantage in terms of range and precision. This opens up the possibility of targeting critical infrastructure, command and control centers, and concentrations of enemy forces without exposing Ukrainian units to direct counterattacks. In addition to the mentioned initiatives, Ukrainians have also recently started utilizing a Remote Control Demining Vehicle. According to the Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine, the Ratel Deminer is a ground drone produced in Ukraine that offers enhanced safety and efficiency for sappers, or soldiers and engineers involved in mine clearance. Equipped with a daylight CCTV camera, the drone allows operators to direct it more accurately and avoid obstacles such as anti-tank mines or unexploded artillery ordnance that could damage the vehicle. The Ratel Deminer has undergone successful field tests in real minefields containing Russian PFM-1, PMN-4, PMN-3, and PMN-2 anti-personnel landmines (APL) near Sviatohirsk, Donetsk region. When it comes to enhancing EW systems, the latest innovation is the Ai-Petri SV. According to the developers, in addition to its basic communication jamming functionality, the system can detect the position of a Russian UAV operator, disorient FPV drones, and even interfere with Russian guided bombs. It consists of an electronic warfare station, a modern radar station, and a counter-drone system. Its utilization has recently been initiated in the Avdiivka sector.
Air Raid Frequency Updates
In the field, having accurate and up-to-date information about air raid alerts is crucial for the safety and efficiency of personnel. Understanding the frequency, duration, and location of these alerts provides valuable insight that can significantly impact decision-making on the ground. Armed with this knowledge, personnel can plan their movements more strategically, avoiding high-risk areas during times of increased alert activity. With the help of this vital information, they can ensure safer operations while maximizing their resources effectively.
By analyzing the available information from March 28 to April 3, several key points can be observed:
In contrast to the previous week, which had multiple peaks at 3 AM, 9 AM, 2 PM, 5 PM, and 8 PM, this week experienced peaks at 12 PM and 5 PM.
Furthermore, it is worth mentioning that the majority of Air Raid Alerts typically lasted less than 30 minutes, totaling 166 occurrences. It was rare to encounter Air Raid Alerts lasting between 2. 5 and 3 hours, which only occurred 13 times.
Moreover, there has been a slight shift in the pattern of eventful days for Air Raid Alerts compared to the previous period. In the prior reporting period, Saturday had the highest frequency of Air Raid Alerts. However, recent data from the past week shows a noticeable change. Saturday remained the most eventful day, with 96 occurrences, closely followed by Sunday, Thursday, and Friday, with 89, 89, and 85 occurrences, respectively. In contrast, Tuesday had the lowest frequency, with only 34 reported Air Raid Alerts.
Finally, it was discovered that the Kharkiv region had the highest concentration of Air Raid Alerts, totaling 55 occurrences. In contrast, the Lviv region had a minimal number of air raid alerts, with only 4 occurrences recorded.
Analysis of Conflict Development
Recent updates in the Ukraine conflict suggest potential shifts in tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTP), which could have far-reaching implications for the conflict's trajectory in the near future. Reports indicate a notable increase in hybrid warfare tactics, including cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns targeting both military and civilian infrastructure. This suggests an evolving strategy to undermine Ukraine's stability beyond traditional battlefield engagements.
Leadership changes have also emerged as a significant development. New announcements indicate a reshuffling of top military personnel, potentially signifying adjustments in strategic direction. Such changes may lead to alterations in operational tactics and coordination among different units. Furthermore, the influx of foreign fighters, equipment, and military advisors on both sides has the potential to introduce novel combat techniques, potentially escalating the conflict's intensity.
In terms of equipment and infrastructure developments, recent reports suggest the deployment of advanced weapon systems, including long-range artillery and anti-ship missiles, which could alter the dynamics of engagements and complicate defensive strategies. Additionally, developments in electronic warfare capabilities have the potential to disrupt communication and surveillance systems, further shaping the battlespace.
In the coming weeks and months, the conflict's course could be influenced by these developments. A mix of traditional and hybrid tactics might lead to an increasingly complex battlefield, with information warfare playing a more prominent role. Leadership changes could either introduce more aggressive approaches or open doors to diplomatic solutions. As both sides incorporate advanced weaponry and tactics, the potential for more intense and unpredictable confrontations could reshape the conflict's trajectory.
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