Publish Date: 10APR2024
Security & Geopolitical Analyst: MF
Contributing Authors: CT, MSO, ML
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Summary
Over the past 7 days, a series of significant events have taken place that are directly or indirectly linked to the ongoing Ukrainian conflict. These developments have captured the attention of both regional and global audiences:
NATO is planning long-term aid for Ukraine and considering a 100-billion euro fund
IAEA calls for caution after the strike on Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant
Mandatory evacuation could be expanded in Kharkiv Oblast
German companies involved in the 'reconstruction' of occupied Mariupol in Russia
Slovakia's election was won by a Russia-friendly populist who may accelerate the withdrawal of support for Ukraine
Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) suspends its cybersecurity chief in response to a journalistic investigation
Finland has decided to close its border with Russia indefinitely
Ukraine proposes that allies ban air transit to Russia and Belarus
44 states in The Hague support the creation of a special tribunal and the use of frozen Russian assets for Ukraine
Latvia has approved a financial package to support Ukraine
Japan will ban the export of an additional 164 industrial items to Russia
South Korea will provide Ukraine with a new aid package
Finland signs a security deal with Ukraine
Belarus might suspend its participation in the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty
Threat Mapping Updates
Mapping Analysis
As April unfolds, Russia continues to apply pressure along the entire frontline, escalating the number and scale of mechanized ground attacks in certain areas. Geolocated footage from Avdiivka, published on April 6, shows Russian forces advancing southwest of Umanske (west of Avdiivka) in a likely company-sized mechanized assault and moving into central Pervomaiske (southwest of Avdiivka). Additional footage indicates that Russian forces have advanced further into northern Berdychi (northwest of Avdiivka). A Ukrainian servicemember operating in the Avdiivka direction reported that Russian forces are attempting to cut off and capture settlements on the flanks of the city but are currently engaging strong Ukrainian defensive lines. Russian forces have also advanced southwest of Donetsk City during the ongoing fighting in the area. Recent geolocated footage shows their progress on the northern outskirts of Novomykhailivka (southwest of Donetsk City) and further west into central Novomykhailivka. In the past week, Chasiv Yar has emerged as another point of pressure, believed by Ukrainian military officials to be the next major target for the Russians. Military bloggers reported that Moscow forces have reached the town's outskirts, secured positions in forested areas along the eastern railway, and pushed some Ukrainian forces from Bohdanivka (northwest of Bakhmut) towards Chasiv Yar and Kalynivka (between Bohdanivka and Chasiv Yar). However, the Russians have not yet established control along the entire length of the advance towards the settlement. Experts believe that the Russians may increase the overall pace of their offensive operations in Ukraine, especially after the Ukrainian President reported that Moscow plans to mobilize 300, 000 servicemembers by June 1, 2024. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, 100, 000 contract soldiers have joined the Armed Forces since the start of 2024, with an additional 16, 000 signing contracts since the March 22 Crocus City Hall attack. It is crucial to note that the escalation of Russian mechanized assaults coincided with large-scale missile strikes and drone attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, aiming to collapse Ukraine’s energy grid. Various sources suggest that Russian forces may intensify strikes to pressure the Ukrainian command into deploying air defense systems away from the front lines. This would enable the Russians to enhance aircraft operations supporting ground operations safely, aiming to constrain Ukraine’s long-term defense industrial capacity. This is evidenced by their consistent missile and drone strikes, which have pressured Ukraine’s limited air defense, leading Kyiv to make tough decisions about providing air defense coverage between large population centers in the rear and active frontline areas. For instance, over the past seven days, Russian forces targeted agricultural enterprises in Kherson Oblast, as well as industrial facilities and civilian infrastructure in Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, Donetsk, and Kharkiv oblasts, resulting in at least 10 deaths and more than 30 injuries in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia alone. According to Kyiv officials, Russia has destroyed 80% of Ukrainian thermal power plants in the last couple of weeks. Since the beginning of the war, they have devastated over 60, 000 hectares of Ukrainian forests.
During an interview on April 6, the Ukrainian President stated that Kyiv forces currently lack sufficient ammunition to initiate and sustain future counteroffensive operations. Nevertheless, despite facing challenges on three fronts, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that Ukrainian forces have achieved certain tactical successes in the Kupiansk and Lyman directions. Last week, they successfully conducted a counterattack near Synkivka in the Kupiansk direction, northeastern Ukraine. They recaptured positions and established a buffer zone against Russian troops. Ongoing positional engagements were noticed along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line and other frontline locations. Heavy fighting was particularly observed near Chasiv Yar. However, according to Syrsky, it still remains under Kyiv's control. During the last seven days, Ukrainians troops also carried out attacks deep in Russian territory. According to various sources, they conducted a major drone attack overnight on April 4-5, successfully targeting airfields near Kursk City and Yeysk, Krasnodar Krai; the Engels Airbase in Saratov Oblast; and the Morozovsk Air Base in Rostov Oblast. While the Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have downed 53 UAVs during these attacks, Ukrainian media outlets reported that at least six Russian aircraft were destroyed, eight were damaged, and over 20 Russian troops were wounded or killed. Additionally, in Morozovsk, the governor reported damage to an electricity substation, causing temporary outages. On April 6, Kyiv forces successfully blew up an oil pipeline in Russia's Rostov Oblast, near the city of Azov, while several settlements in Russia's Belgorod Oblast were simultaneously attacked by drones on the night of April 6-7. Kyiv also claimed responsibility for a significant fire aboard a Russian warship at the port of Kaliningrad on April 8 and a drone attack on an aviation training center in Russia's Voronezh Oblast on April 9. Ukrainian military officials announced that they will continue drone attacks on Russian military facilities, now with an expanded range. They have also revealed that one of the upcoming major targets will be the Kerch Bridge, connecting occupied Crimea with Russia.
Priority Updates
NATO is planning long-term aid for Ukraine and considering a 100-billion euro fund
NATO allies agreed on April 3 to start planning for long-term military support for Ukraine, with a proposal from NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to establish a 100 billion-euro ($107 billion) five-year fund. Stoltenberg's proposal aims to provide the Western alliance with a more direct role in coordinating the supply of arms, ammunition, and equipment to Ukraine in its conflict against Russia's invasion. The plan involves NATO taking over some coordination work from a U. S.-led ad-hoc coalition known as the Ramstein group, partly to safeguard against a potential reduction in U. S. support if Donald Trump were to return to the White House, according to diplomats. Stoltenberg mentioned that a decision is expected to be made at a July summit of NATO member states' leaders, with NATO decisions requiring consensus among its 32 members. While discussions are still in the early stages, the proposal has elicited mixed reactions, with Hungary expressing skepticism.
IAEA calls for caution after the strike on Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant
The U. N.'s atomic watchdog agency condemned a drone strike on one of the six nuclear reactors at the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine, stating that such attacks "significantly increase the risk of a major nuclear accident." Plant officials reported that the site was attacked on April 7 by Ukrainian military drones, including a strike on the dome of the plant's sixth power unit. Ukraine strongly denies any involvement. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that the main reactor containment structures of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) sustained at least three direct hits. One casualty was reported.
Mandatory evacuation could be expanded in Kharkiv Oblast
According to the head of the Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, families with children in the northern part of Kharkiv Oblast, including Kharkiv district and Bohodukhiv district in the Zolochiv front, may face compulsory evacuation due to recent enemy attacks on previously untouched settlements. The mandatory evacuation of 18 settlements on the Kupiansk front has already been completed, with 47 more settlements currently evacuating in four hromadas.
German companies involved in the 'reconstruction' of occupied Mariupol in Russia
German companies Knauf and WKB Systems GmbH are involved in the restoration efforts of occupied Mariupol in Donetsk Oblast, which was destroyed by Russian troops. This information was revealed in an investigation published on April 3 by journalists from the Monitor program of the German TV channel ARD. The reconstruction of Mariupol is viewed as part of Russian propaganda efforts to conceal evidence of the destruction caused by Russia's forces. President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russian attacks destroyed over 95% of the buildings in the city. Although Knauf has condemned Russia's aggression and claims to adhere to EU sanctions, its involvement in projects within illegally Russian-occupied territories raises ethical concerns. It is noteworthy that the company patriarch, Nikolaus Knauf, served as the Russian honorary consul for more than two decades. Furthermore, WKB Systems GmbH, a German company, has supplied construction materials to projects linked to its main shareholder, Russian oligarch Viktor Konstantinowitsch Budarin. Budarin utilized his German company as a supplier to the construction industry in Russia. Despite EU sanctions targeting several Russian oligarchs, Budarin remains unaffected.
Slovakia's election was won by a Russia-friendly populist who may accelerate the withdrawal of support for Ukraine
The Russia-friendly populist candidate, Peter Pellegrini, has won Slovakia’s presidential election, likely strengthening the government’s resolve to withdraw military support for Ukraine.
Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) suspends its cybersecurity chief in response to a journalistic investigation
Investigative journalists from Slidstvo.Info uncovered that the wife of Illia Vitiuk, the chief of the Cyber Security Department of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), bought an apartment valued at over UAH 20 million (around US$516, 000). However, Vitiuk claimed in his tax declaration that the apartment cost only UAH 12. 8 million. This investigation comes at a time when Vitiuk himself reports that Russian intelligence services have initiated numerous disinformation operations against Ukraine's top government and military officials, emphasizing that he is a specific target of Russian efforts. Vitiuk has been suspended from performing his professional duties while the circumstances revealed by Slidstvo.Info are being verified.
Finland has decided to close its border with Russia indefinitely
The Finnish government has decided to keep the border with Russia closed "until further notice," as reported by Finland's Interior Ministry on April 4. The border was initially closed in late November 2023 after Russia orchestrated an influx of migrants in an attempt to pressure Helsinki.
Ukraine proposes that allies ban air transit to Russia and Belarus
During his visit to Lithuania on April 5, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced Ukraine's proposal to ban air transit to Russia and Belarus as part of the international sanctions policy.
Political Developments
44 states in The Hague support the creation of a special tribunal and the use of frozen Russian assets for Ukraine
The Political Declaration of the Ministerial Conference on Restoring Justice for Ukraine, held in The Hague, was signed by 44 states. It expresses support for establishing a special tribunal for the crime of aggression and utilizing frozen Russian assets for Ukraine's benefit. The declaration condemns Russia's aggression against Ukraine as a blatant violation of the international legal order and recalls the UN court's decision of 16 March 2022, ordering Russia to cease hostilities. In the second section dedicated to compensating Ukraine for damages, the signatories welcome the launch of the Register of Damage, which started accepting applications on 2 April. They also reaffirm that Russian sovereign assets in their jurisdictions will remain frozen until Russia stops its aggression against Ukraine and compensates for the damage caused.
Latvia has approved a financial package to support Ukraine
The Latvian government has approved a new comprehensive assistance package for Ukraine worth €10 million. The financial package aims to support two sectors: rebuilding Ukraine and assisting the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Approximately €5. 3 million will be allocated for the reconstruction of Ukraine, while €4. 3 million will support the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The funds will be channeled through the European Peace Fund and may be supplemented by other countries as needed. It is important to mention that, alongside international support, the country is also running its own campaign to aid Ukraine.
Japan will ban the export of an additional 164 industrial items to Russia
Japan will expand its ban on exports to Russia, adding 164 additional industrial items such as lithium-ion batteries, gas pipes, and car engine oil. The Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry of Japan announced this, as reported by The Asahi Shimbun. This latest addition to Japan’s export control list is part of its sanctions against Moscow's actions in Ukraine. The list also includes thermostats, nitrocellulose products, and woodworking machines. The new restrictions will come into effect on April 17, according to the ministry.
South Korea will provide Ukraine with a new aid package
The South Korean Foreign Minister announced that the country will continue to support Ukraine by offering $2. 3 billion aid package starting this year. Additionally, Seoul will provide $12 million for military rehabilitation through the NATO Trust Fund for Ukraine. The NATO Military Medical Clinical Rehabilitation Center offers surgery, psychological treatment, research, education, and training for injured Ukrainian soldiers. The South Korean Foreign Ministry further explained that NATO intends to establish similar centers in five Ukrainian cities, including Irpin near Kyiv.
Finland signs a security deal with Ukraine
On April 3, Finland's president signed a 10-year security deal with his Ukrainian counterpart, marking Finland as the eighth NATO member this year to commit to long-term security cooperation and defense support for Kyiv in its battle against Russian forces. Finland also announced a new military support package worth €188 million.
Belarus might suspend its participation in the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty
On April 5th, the Belarusian President reportedly agreed to introduce a bill suspending the country’s participation in the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE). The treaty, originally signed in Paris in November 1990, aimed at arms control and was initially agreed upon by 16 NATO members and six countries of the former Warsaw Pact, including the former Soviet Union. Russia formally withdrew from the CFE in November 2023, while Poland suspended the Treaty in March of this year.
Analysis of Priority & Political Updates
The global show of support for Ukraine has significant political ramifications on both regional and international levels. The backing from various nations underscores the complexity of the conflict and its implications for global security dynamics. As countries vocally condemn Russia's actions and express solidarity with Ukraine, diplomatic tensions rise, potentially leading to shifts in alliances and geopolitical strategies.
The United States and its NATO allies have been particularly vocal in their support for Ukraine, signaling a unified stance against Russian aggression and a commitment to upholding international norms and territorial integrity. This collective stance amplifies diplomatic pressure on Russia, potentially leading to sanctions and other punitive measures.
Furthermore, the global support for Ukraine underscores the importance of international law and norms in addressing conflicts and maintaining a rules-based international order. It serves as a reminder that actions violating sovereignty and territorial integrity are met with widespread condemnation and potential consequences, thus influencing the calculus of nations engaged in such activities.
The political impact of global support for Ukraine extends beyond the immediate conflict, potentially affecting broader diplomatic relations and regional stability. The unity of nations in support of Ukraine could embolden other nations to rally against aggression and assert their interests through international cooperation. However, it also raises the stakes of the conflict, increasing the potential for escalation and necessitating careful diplomatic navigation to prevent a wider crisis.
Conflict Zone Updates
As advancements in military technology and equipment remain a priority in the Russo-Ukrainian war, both sides are striving to utilize innovations on the battlefield to gain an advantage. Ukrainians were mainly focused on upgrading drone technology. According to reports, one of the latest innovations to have entered service with the armed forces of Ukraine is the long-range Sokol-300 drone. This drone is capable of attacking even Russian Arctic bases in Murmansk, where Moscow has stationed a significant portion of its bombers, increasingly participating in airstrikes in Ukraine. The Sokol-300 measures 8. 5 meters in length with a wingspan reaching up to 14 meters. It can carry a payload of up to 300 kg, reach a maximum altitude of just over 9 km, and has a range of 3, 300 km (2, 000 miles). UBM asserts that the maximum flight height is 12 km. The drone is equipped with RK-10, P2-M, and RK-2P missiles capable of hitting targets at a distance of up to 10 km. Additionally, the drone can carry a synthetic aperture radar and a small radar station. When scanning the ground from a height of 5 kilometers, the radar has an accuracy of 30×30 cm. The drone's "eyes" consist of an optical-electronic station from the Barrier-B ATGM. Ukrainian engineers have also developed a new reconnaissance drone called WarDog for artillery units. According to Mykhailo Fedorov, the Minister of Digital Transformation, the WarDog drone was specifically designed for reconnaissance missions in challenging terrain and under the influence of enemy EW systems. Priority is given to counteracting enemy EW, enabling the drone to conduct reconnaissance even if the GPS signal is suppressed. It can operate in autonomous, semi-autonomous, and manual flight modes to ensure mission effectiveness under varying conditions, with a maximum range of up to 10 km in communication and up to 30 km in autopilot mode. The drone's speed is 12-15 m/s. Recently, Russian experts claimed to have discovered components used by the US space agency NASA in its Mars program in drones captured from Ukraine. According to Dmitry Kuzyakin, the general director of the Center for Development of Integrated Unmanned Solutions, aluminum alloys similar to those used in the US space program were found in the captured Ukrainian drones during reverse engineering. In addition to these improvements, on April 5, Ukraine announced the launch of serial production for the new locally-made Backfire K1 Bomber Drone. Designed like a small conventional aircraft, it features a front-mounted engine and a distinctive V-tail configuration. Its main fuselage is designed to carry a substantial explosive payload, introducing a new level of strategic capability. The drone can be launched via a catapult and has a parachute system for recovery. However, the most remarkable aspect of the Backfire K1 is its autonomy. The drone navigates pre-set routes without the need for continuous communication with operators, evading electronic detection and making it elusive to electronic intelligence efforts. It has a combat range of up to 55 km, can carry payloads up to 6 kg, and is powered by an electric engine. The drone reaches a maximum altitude of 1000 m, operates most effectively at a working altitude of 300 m, and conducts bombing at altitudes ranging from 50-200 m, ensuring precision strikes at a cruising speed of 84 km/h.
Unlike Ukrainians, who focused on drones, Russians have been enhancing capacities in various areas. Regarding ground assets, they recently upgraded tanks to shield them from Ukrainian drone attacks. Specifically, they equipped the T-90M and T-72B3 with "cope cages" protective screens and a new electronic warfare station featuring eight cylindrical antennas. Some sources claim that the new EW system can detect drones within a range of up to 1. 5 kilometers and disable them within a range of up to 1 kilometer. It is designed to jam drones with a total power output ranging from 800 to 1200 watts. Furthermore, on April 5, the Russian State Corporation ROSTEC announced the delivery of modernized 2S19M1 Msta-S 152mm self-propelled howitzers to the Russian army for rapid deployment in Ukraine. These can fire the latest generation of Russian guided ammunition, such as Krasnopol, which is illuminated by a laser designator using drone data transmission. In terms of naval capabilities, it should be noted that on April 4, the Ukrainian partisan group Atesh identified the presence of a Russian Project 21980 special purpose boat Grachonok in the southern bay of Sevastopol in occupied Crimea. This boat is designed to prevent sabotage, special forces, and weapons from accessing base areas. However, Atesh highlighted that Ukrainian sea drones could easily bypass such vessels. Regarding the enhancement of air capabilities, the Russian Ministry of Defense has reported that Moscow Air Forces have recently begun using new ODAB-500 thermobaric bombs equipped with a UMPK guidance kit. This kit converts traditional bombs into highly accurate guided ammunition. Launched by Su-34 bomber aircraft, the ODAB-500 is considered one of the most lethal air-dropped weapons because of its vacuum or thermobaric charge. The Russians are also developing miniature UAVs designed to be deployed from a Su-57. These drones can be carried externally or within its fuselage compartment for mid-air release. According to the United Aircraft Corporation of Russia, the drones are meant to act as a force multiplier for the Su-57, enhancing its reach and firepower. They can serve as a reconnaissance tool with the fighter jet overseeing and controlling the group's collective actions or as kamikaze drones intended for high-risk missions.
Air Raid Frequency Updates
In the field, having accurate and up-to-date information about air raid alerts is crucial for the safety and efficiency of personnel. Understanding the frequency, duration, and location of these alerts provides valuable insight that can significantly impact decision-making on the ground. Armed with this knowledge, personnel can plan their movements more strategically, avoiding high-risk areas during times of increased alert activity. With the help of this vital information, they can ensure safer operations while maximizing their resources effectively.
By analyzing the available information from April 4 to April 10, several key points can be observed:
In contrast to the previous week, which had peaks at 12 PM and 5 PM, this week experienced its highest peak at 1 PM, followed by two smaller peaks at 3-4 PM and 7 PM.
Furthermore, it is worth noting that the majority of Air Raid Alerts typically lasted between 30 minutes and 1 hour, totaling 156 occurrences. It was rare to encounter Air Raid Alerts lasting between 2. 5 and 3 hours, which only occurred 18 times.
Moreover, there has been a slight shift in the pattern of eventful days for Air Raid Alerts compared to the previous period. In the prior reporting period, Saturday had the highest frequency of Air Raid Alerts. However, recent data from the past week shows a noticeable change. Thursday became the most eventful day, with 85 occurrences, closely followed by Monday and Saturday with 78 and 74 occurrences, respectively. In contrast, Wednesday had the lowest frequency, with only 34 reported Air Raid Alerts.
Finally, it was discovered that the Kharkiv region had the highest concentration of Air Raid Alerts, totaling 51 occurrences. In contrast, the Kyiv city had a minimal number of Air Raid Alerts, with only 4 occurrences recorded.
Analysis of Conflict Development
Recent updates in the Ukraine conflict suggest potential shifts in tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTP), which could have far-reaching implications for the conflict's trajectory in the near future. Reports indicate a notable increase in hybrid warfare tactics, including cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns targeting both military and civilian infrastructure. This suggests an evolving strategy to undermine Ukraine's stability beyond traditional battlefield engagements.
Leadership changes have also emerged as a significant development. New announcements indicate a reshuffling of top military personnel, potentially signifying adjustments in strategic direction. Such changes may lead to alterations in operational tactics and coordination among different units. Furthermore, the influx of foreign fighters, equipment, and military advisors on both sides has the potential to introduce novel combat techniques, potentially escalating the conflict's intensity.
In terms of equipment and infrastructure developments, recent reports suggest the deployment of advanced weapon systems, including long-range artillery and anti-ship missiles, which could alter the dynamics of engagements and complicate defensive strategies. Additionally, developments in electronic warfare capabilities have the potential to disrupt communication and surveillance systems, further shaping the battlespace.
In the coming weeks and months, the conflict's course could be influenced by these developments. A mix of traditional and hybrid tactics might lead to an increasingly complex battlefield, with information warfare playing a more prominent role. Leadership changes could either introduce more aggressive approaches or open doors to diplomatic solutions. As both sides incorporate advanced weaponry and tactics, the potential for more intense and unpredictable confrontations could reshape the conflict's trajectory.
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