Publish Date: 17APR2024
Security & Geopolitical Analyst: MF
Contributing Authors: CT, MSO, ML
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Summary
Over the past 7 days, a series of significant events have taken place that are directly or indirectly linked to the ongoing Ukrainian conflict. These developments have captured the attention of both regional and global audiences:
Estonia found another million shells for Ukraine
The Russian secret service is trying to recruit agents in Canada
Two Russian oligarchs have won a court ruling over EU sanctions
Ukrainian Railways has begun the construction of a European-gauge railway line from Uzhhorod to the EU border
The Ukrainian parliament passed a mobilization bill to increase troop numbers
The Kharkiv Regional Defense Council has decided to evacuate families with children from 47 frontline settlements in the region
China is significantly supporting Russia to expand its weapons manufacturing
Switzerland will host a mid-June conference to support Ukraine's peace formula
The Ukrainian Energy Ministry says Ukraine may face summer blackouts
The UK and Ukraine have signed a new defense pact
Germany will send a Patriot air-defense system to Ukraine
The US Department of State has approved the sale of Hawk air defense system components, worth US$138 million, to Ukraine
Lithuania will allocate EUR 1. 2B in military aid to Ukraine this year
Norway will transfer 22 F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine
Ukraine and Latvia have signed a bilateral security agreement
The Netherlands will provide an additional EUR 4. 4B in aid to Ukraine
The US and UK have taken action targeting Russian Aluminum, Copper, and Nickel
Threat Mapping Updates
Mapping Analysis
Over the past week, Russians have increased pressure along the frontline, focusing in several directions with particularly heightened activity evident in the Bakhmut and Novopavlivka fronts. Recently, they made progress near Kreminna. The latest reports and geolocated footage confirm that Russian forces have seized Pervomaiske and Bohdanivka in Donetsk Oblast, and made minor advancements near Krasnohorivka, west of Donetsk City. They've also progressed in central Semenivka (west of Avdiivka), in northwestern Pobieda and north of Novomykhailivka (southwest of Donetsk City), and northwest of Klishchiivka, southeast of Chasiv Yar. Meanwhile, positional battles continue in other areas. According to ISW, Moscow troops are undertaking at least three operational-level efforts, focused in Lyman, Chasiv Yar, and Pokrovsk directions. These efforts may not mutually support each other, but they enable Russian forces to prioritize small, tactical gains in a sector of their choice at a time. Ukrainian military officials also confirmed this, stating that despite heavy losses, Russian troops continue to deploy new units to achieve tactical successes. According to French media, Moscow is currently training around 120, 000 soldiers for new offensive operations in Ukraine, most likely in Kharkiv. However, capturing Chasiv Yar also offers a significant advancement opportunity for the Russian forces. This would likely enable Moscow's troops to initiate further offensive operations against cities forming an important Ukrainian defensive belt in Donetsk Oblast. Due to recent developments, the Ukrainian military command predicts that Russian forces will attempt to seize Chasiv Yar by May 9. Increased air strikes, especially on energy facilities, enhance ground operations. The Ukrainian government attributes Russian advances in Ukraine to the frequent use of "drop-and-forget" guided bombs, with up to 500 launched weekly. High-explosive and cluster bombs, equipped with UMPC guiding systems and boasting a range of 40-60 km, now pose a significant threat on the frontline, forcing Ukrainian forces to retreat. However, other assets are also being utilized. For instance, on the night of April 11, the Russians launched a massive aerial attack on Ukraine, employing various means including new Kinzhal missiles. They targeted critical infrastructure in Kharkiv, Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, and Lviv oblasts, leaving over 200, 000 people in Kharkiv Oblast alone without electricity. The focus was on Ukraine's energy system and gas storage sites, which are connected to the EU's gas networks. Power generation facilities and the grid near Kyiv, as well as in the Kharkiv region in the east, Zaporizhzhia in the south, and Lviv in the west, were damaged. The Trypilska thermal power plant near the capital was completely destroyed, according to Ukraine's officials. A gas distribution facility in the Stryi district, Ukraine's largest underground gas storage, along with an electricity substation in the Chervonohrad district, were also targeted.
According to Ukraine's commander-in-chief, the situation in eastern Ukraine has significantly worsened, with Russian forces continuing their advancement along the Lyman, Bakhmut, and Pokrovsk axis. Various experts suggest that due to a lack of US security assistance, Ukrainian artillery and air defense shortages are enabling Russian mechanized forces to make slight tactical advances. They further imply that future Russian mechanized assaults could achieve more significant gains if the US continues to withhold assistance to Kyiv. Considering a potential new wave of offensive in late spring or early summer, Russian threats to places like Druzhkivka and Kostyantynivka are operationally significant, as they form the backbone of the Ukrainian defense in Donetsk Oblast and eastern Ukraine in general. However, it's noteworthy that despite Russians possessing three times as many artillery shells as Ukrainians, and Moscow's troops outnumbering Kyiv's forces by a seven to ten ratio, Ukrainian defenders are still successfully repelling most attacks at various locations, even regaining some positions while inflicting heavy losses on the enemy. Recent reports and geolocated footage indicate that they have regained positions in southwestern Novomykhailivka, located southwest of Donetsk City, and launched strikes against occupied Berdyansk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and Crimea. According to various sources, a Russian military base at the Pivdenhydromash manufacturing plant in Berdyansk and a Russian command post in occupied Crimea were attacked. The Ukrainians also successfully targeted the Luhansk Machine Building Plant and a command post in Luhansk City, while continuing to launch attacks deep into Russia. On April 12, their Kamikaze drones reached the city of Kovilkino in Mordovia, situated more than 680 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. In addition to Belgorod and Kursk, they also targeted the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in Russia's Rostov Oblast using a drone. Drones have been vital for Ukrainians, destroying over 66% of Russian tanks. According to recent reports, three times more drones have been provided to frontline Ukrainian forces since the beginning of 2024 than during all of 2023, with hundreds of unmanned ground vehicles in use on the front. Nevertheless, without US military support, the effectiveness of drones alone won't be sufficient to shift the balance in Kyiv's favor.
Priority Updates
Estonia found another million shells for Ukraine
Seven weeks after Jan Jires, the Czech defense policy chief, announced that his government had identified 800, 000 to a million artillery shells that Ukraine's allies could purchase, Estonian defense minister Hanno Pevkur revealed that his government had found another million shells and rockets for Ukraine. Pevkur informed the media that he's attempting to gather an additional $2. 2 billion from the same countries that paid $1. 3 billion for the Czech-sourced ammunition to pay for the Estonian-sourced ammo.
The Russian secret service is trying to recruit agents in Canada
The Defense Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU) has reported that the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) is attempting to locate and recruit foreigners in Canada who maintain contact with intelligence agencies worldwide.
Two Russian oligarchs have won a court ruling over EU sanctions
Two Russian oligarchs secured a surprise victory against EU sanctions related to Moscow’s war against Ukraine, although they remain under punitive measures for now. The European Court of Justice ruled that the European Council had failed to provide sufficient evidence to prove that Petr Aven and Mikhail Fridman were involved in activities that "undermine or threaten the territorial integrity, sovereignty, and independence of Ukraine". The EU's top court has annulled the sanctions imposed on the pair for 2022-23.
Ukrainian Railways has begun the construction of a European-gauge railway line from Uzhhorod to the EU border
Ukrzaliznytsia, Ukrainian Railways, has initiated the construction of a European-gauge railway line from Chop, on the EU border, to Uzhhorod, the administrative center of Zakarpattia Oblast. This project is a segment of the strategic rail infrastructure development program for Ukraine's integration into the EU.
The Ukrainian parliament passed a mobilization bill to increase troop numbers
Ukraine's parliament passed a bill on April 11 to overhaul its army mobilization rules, aiming to generate fresh manpower to rotate its fatigued troops battling Russian invaders. The bill, signed by President Volodymyr Zelensky on April 16, introduces several changes. It requires Ukrainian men aged 18 to 60 to update their personal data with military authorities, allowing draft offices to more easily identify potential recruits in any given region. Those who fail to comply with the mobilization rules will be prohibited from driving. The bill does not specify a time limit for wartime military service, leaving soldiers who have been fighting since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022 unsure of when they will be demobilized. Martial law prevents men of military age from traveling abroad, and there is no procedure for drafting Ukrainian men who are overseas. The bill suggests offering financial incentives to those who volunteer to serve in the army and sign a military contract. The bill also includes other provisions.
The Kharkiv Regional Defense Council has decided to evacuate families with children from 47 frontline settlements in the region
According to Kharkiv's regional governor, Oleh Syniehubov, the Regional Defense Council has mandated the evacuation of families with children in 47 front-line settlements. This only applies to the settlements in the Kharkiv, Bohodukhiv, and Izium districts that are adjacent to the Russian Federation border. He clarified that this decision does not extend to the city of Kharkiv. He further stated that evacuation routes have been established and temporary accommodation for the evacuees has been arranged.
China is significantly supporting Russia to expand its weapons manufacturing
China is assisting Russia in significantly expanding its defense industrial base. This has led Moscow to undertake its most ambitious military manufacturing expansion since the Soviet era, amid its ongoing war with Ukraine, according to senior Biden administration officials. China's support encompasses substantial quantities of machine tools, drone and turbojet engines, cruise missile technology, microelectronics, and nitrocellulose, which Russia uses to make weapon propellants, the officials added. Additionally, Chinese and Russian entities have been collaboratively producing drones within Russia, one official noted.
Switzerland will host a mid-June conference to support Ukraine's peace formula
Switzerland is set to host a high-level conference on June 15-16 to consolidate global support for a peace framework advocated by Ukraine to end the war with Russia. Over 120 countries are expected to attend. Even though Russia's participation is not anticipated at this point, the conference aims to establish a "concrete roadmap for Russia's involvement in the peace process."
The Ukrainian Energy Ministry says Ukraine may face summer blackouts
Ukraine may need to reintroduce scheduled rolling blackouts this summer if Russia continues its large-scale attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, warned the Energy Ministry on April 12. The schedules for these emergency power cuts were drawn up in late 2023.
Political Developments
The UK and Ukraine have signed a new defense pact
The UK and Ukraine have signed a new defense agreement to foster cooperation on defense and industrial issues. The signing occurred in Kyiv during the UK's largest-ever trade mission to Ukraine. A delegation of 29 UK businesses accompanied the mission, sharing their expertise and seeking opportunities for collaboration.
Germany will send a Patriot air-defense system to Ukraine
On April 13, Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that Germany had agreed to send a Patriot air-defense system to Ukraine, along with air-defense missiles for existing systems. Additionally, Ukraine is in discussions with Germany about procuring an additional IRIS-T air defense system. On April 10, the German government revealed that Berlin had already sent a new batch of military aid to Ukraine, including artillery shells and drones among other supplies.
The US Department of State has approved the sale of Hawk air defense system components, worth US$138 million, to Ukraine
The United States has announced an emergency sale of Hawk air defense missile system components, worth US$138 million, to Ukraine. The Hawk, a medium-range air defense missile system, addresses one of Ukraine's critical security needs.
Lithuania will allocate EUR 1. 2B in military aid to Ukraine this year
Lithuania's Interior Minister announced on April 13 a contribution of EUR 1. 2 billion to the EU's Ukraine Assistance Fund for purchasing ammunition and military equipment.
Norway will transfer 22 F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine
Norway will donate a total of 22 F-16s to Ukraine, 12 of which are fully combat-ready, as reported on April 11. The donation will also comprise engines, auxiliary materials, simulators, spare parts, and other pertinent equipment, according to various sources. Norway's Foreign Minister has announced that Norway is transferring F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine to enhance the country's Armed Forces' deep strike capabilities.
Ukraine and Latvia have signed a bilateral security agreement
On April 11, Ukraine and Latvia signed a bilateral security agreement, which provides for long-term Latvian assistance and security commitments to Kyiv. The Ukrainian President stated that the agreement will grant annual aid to Ukraine, valued at 0. 25 percent of Latvia’s GDP, from 2024 through 2026. It also confirms Latvia’s 10-year commitment to aid Ukraine in reconstruction, the protection of critical infrastructure, de-mining, unmanned technology, and cyber security. Additionally, Latvia will provide approximately 112 million euros worth of military aid to Ukraine in 2024.
The Netherlands will provide an additional EUR 4. 4B in aid to Ukraine
The Netherlands will provide Ukraine with €4 billion (US $4. 25 billion) in military aid during the 2024-2026 period, as stated in a document titled "Spring Memorandum 2024," published on the government's website on April 15. Defense leaders will also incrementally increase defense spending by €500 million per year from 2028 to invest in air defense and ammunition stocks.
The US and UK have taken action targeting Russian Aluminum, Copper, and Nickel
On April 12, Washington and London prohibited metal-trading exchanges from accepting new aluminum, copper, and nickel produced by Russia, and also barred the import of these metals into the U. S. and Britain. The action aims to disrupt Russian export revenue.
Analysis of Priority & Political Updates
The global show of support for Ukraine has significant political ramifications on both regional and international levels. The backing from various nations underscores the complexity of the conflict and its implications for global security dynamics. As countries vocally condemn Russia's actions and express solidarity with Ukraine, diplomatic tensions rise, potentially leading to shifts in alliances and geopolitical strategies.
The United States and its NATO allies have been particularly vocal in their support for Ukraine, signaling a unified stance against Russian aggression and a commitment to upholding international norms and territorial integrity. This collective stance amplifies diplomatic pressure on Russia, potentially leading to sanctions and other punitive measures.
Furthermore, the global support for Ukraine underscores the importance of international law and norms in addressing conflicts and maintaining a rules-based international order. It serves as a reminder that actions violating sovereignty and territorial integrity are met with widespread condemnation and potential consequences, thus influencing the calculus of nations engaged in such activities.
The political impact of global support for Ukraine extends beyond the immediate conflict, potentially affecting broader diplomatic relations and regional stability. The unity of nations in support of Ukraine could embolden other nations to rally against aggression and assert their interests through international cooperation. However, it also raises the stakes of the conflict, increasing the potential for escalation and necessitating careful diplomatic navigation to prevent a wider crisis.
Conflict Zone Updates
The past week witnessed numerous advancements in military technology and equipment on both sides of the Russo-Ukrainian war. According to Rostec, Russia is developing new anti-tank ammunition by analyzing captured Western armored vehicles, particularly German Leopard tanks and US Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles. Moscow is also planning to deploy the new 2S38 Derivatsya anti-aircraft gun system to Ukraine. Designed to combat cruise missiles, MLRS shells, aircraft, helicopters, enemy drones, and even lightly armored ground targets, this system uses a 57 mm caliber projectile at medium and low altitudes. Built on the BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicle chassis, it is equipped with a 57mm automatic cannon for rapid fire, as well as modern detection and tracking capabilities such as a fire control radar and optical targeting systems for use in limited visibility. The system's special ammunition, like guided shells and programmable fragmentation munitions, enhances its effectiveness against aerial and lightly armored ground threats. The cannon has a range of 6 kilometers and fires 120 rounds per minute. Moscow's Army recently showcased an innovative adaptation of naval weaponry for land-based use as well, a creation that Western analysts have dubbed the Frankenstein rocket launcher. This invention melds the RBU-6000 naval rocket launcher with an MT-LB multipurpose tracked armored vehicle chassis. The technical specifications of the RBU-6000 indicate its ability to target areas with swift salvos, boasting an effective range of 5. 2 kilometers and a maximum firing rate of one shot every 2. 4 seconds. Following the recent deliveries of MANPADS, including the FIM-92 Stinger, to Ukraine in March 2024, the Russian Air Force has also taken steps to shield its aircraft from missile threats. To this end, they implemented the deployment of the upgraded Vitebsk electronic warfare system across various aircraft, aiming to counter the Stinger missiles' capabilities. The Ekran Research Institute, a Rostec Group subsidiary, developed this system. It detects and suppresses incoming missiles by generating jamming signals and decoys, thereby disrupting their guidance. However, the most notable innovation revealed last week was a new subsonic cruise missile, dubbed the Kh-69, used during an assault against Ukraine's energy infrastructure, specifically the Trypillia Thermal Power Plant in Kyiv Oblast. With its advanced guidance systems, including DSMAC, satellite navigation with jamming protection, and an inertial navigation system, the Kh-69 has proven to have a range exceeding its previously declared 290 km. Reportedly, Russian forces have launched it from 400 kilometers away from their targets, surpassing the 200-kilometer range of the most recent Kh-59MK2 variant. The missile’s warhead weighs approximately 310 kg, and one of its most notable features is its ability to fly at ultra-low altitudes of just 20 meters, lower than the Kh-101 cruise missile. Besides its expanded range, it can reportedly be launched from Su-34 and Su-35 tactical aircraft, which are more common than strategic bombers.
The Ukraine Defense Ministry has signed a memorandum to develop the innovative technology UA DroneID. This feature within the DELTA ecosystem will assist in identifying both friendly and hostile drones. It has already been tested in combat conditions against strike drones. Moreover, the technology within the DELTA system will also unlock numerous possibilities for analyzing drone usage - for instance, planning which drones are most suitable for striking specific targets. Kyiv also plans to develop the so-called Iron Range, a space where Ukrainian producers can test new weapons at any stage of development. According to Ukraine's military officials, it will open in Ukraine in May. Ukrainian naval drones have also been modernized. The upgraded versions of Sea Baby can now carry nearly a ton of explosives and hit targets over 1, 000 km away. However, perhaps the most significant news last week was the announcement that Great Britain is contemplating providing Ukraine with the DragonFire laser system, which is capable of shooting down enemy drones and missiles. Although the weapon is planned to be implemented on the Royal Navy's warships by 2027, reports suggest it may be used in Ukraine even earlier, as the military accelerates the use of advanced technologies. Reportedly, it's invisible to the human eye, closely aligns with the infrared light spectrum, and is silent due to its light wavelength of about one micron. It can instantly transform metal surfaces into 3000°C plasma, burning through sheet metal, fuselages, and weapons in mere seconds. In addition to the above mentioned, it's interesting to note that Ukrainians have recently begun utilizing an ancient Roman weapon, combining it with modern technologies - tire-popping metal obstacles called caltrops, dropped by drones. Apparently, they are highly efficient at disrupting Russia's supply chain by halting vehicles so bomber drones can target them. Aside from upgrading military assets, Ukrainians also successfully conducted cyber attacks and counterintelligence activities. Blackjack, a Ukrainian hacker group associated with the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), initiated a cyberattack on Moskollector, a company that manages Moscow's sewage network communication system. They disabled 87, 000 sensors, impeding the utility company's response to accidents and emergencies. The SBU also thwarted an assassination attempt on the head of the Kherson Oblast Military Administration on April 13. Furthermore, since the beginning of 2024, the SBU has exposed 11 Russian intelligence networks operating in Ukraine.
Air Raid Frequency Updates
In the field, having accurate and up-to-date information about air raid alerts is crucial for the safety and efficiency of personnel. Understanding the frequency, duration, and location of these alerts provides valuable insight that can significantly impact decision-making on the ground. Armed with this knowledge, personnel can plan their movements more strategically, avoiding high-risk areas during times of increased alert activity. With the help of this vital information, they can ensure safer operations while maximizing their resources effectively.
By analyzing the available information from April 11 to April 17, several key points can be observed:
Like the previous week, which had peaks at 3-4 PM and 7 PM, this week also saw its highest peak at 4 PM, followed by a slightly smaller peak at 7 PM.
Furthermore, it is worth noting that most Air Raid Alerts typically lasted less than 30 minutes, with a total of 125 occurrences. However, alerts lasting between 30 minutes and 1 hour were also noticeable, occurring 124 times. It was rare to encounter Air Raid Alerts lasting between 2. 5 and 3 hours, which only occurred 11 times.
Moreover, there has been a slight shift in the pattern of eventful days for Air Raid Alerts compared to the previous period. In the prior reporting period, Thursday had the highest frequency of Air Raid Alerts. However, recent data from the past week shows a noticeable change. Wednesday became the most eventful day, with 78 occurrences, closely followed by Friday with 67 occurrences. In contrast, Sunday had the lowest frequency, with only 24 reported Air Raid Alerts.
Finally, it was discovered that the Kharkiv region had the highest concentration of Air Raid Alerts, totaling 49 occurrences. In contrast, the Ternopil region had a minimal number of Air Raid Alerts, with only 2 occurrences recorded.
Analysis of Conflict Development
Recent updates in the Ukraine conflict suggest potential shifts in tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTP), which could have far-reaching implications for the conflict's trajectory in the near future. Reports indicate a notable increase in hybrid warfare tactics, including cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns targeting both military and civilian infrastructure. This suggests an evolving strategy to undermine Ukraine's stability beyond traditional battlefield engagements.
Leadership changes have also emerged as a significant development. New announcements indicate a reshuffling of top military personnel, potentially signifying adjustments in strategic direction. Such changes may lead to alterations in operational tactics and coordination among different units. Furthermore, the influx of foreign fighters, equipment, and military advisors on both sides has the potential to introduce novel combat techniques, potentially escalating the conflict's intensity.
In terms of equipment and infrastructure developments, recent reports suggest the deployment of advanced weapon systems, including long-range artillery and anti-ship missiles, which could alter the dynamics of engagements and complicate defensive strategies. Additionally, developments in electronic warfare capabilities have the potential to disrupt communication and surveillance systems, further shaping the battlespace.
In the coming weeks and months, the conflict's course could be influenced by these developments. A mix of traditional and hybrid tactics might lead to an increasingly complex battlefield, with information warfare playing a more prominent role. Leadership changes could either introduce more aggressive approaches or open doors to diplomatic solutions. As both sides incorporate advanced weaponry and tactics, the potential for more intense and unpredictable confrontations could reshape the conflict's trajectory.
SecurityACCESS Ukraine
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Ukraine Core Capabilities
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