Report dated Apr 15 2024
Introduction: GlobalPULSE Weekly Report
Welcome to the GlobalPULSE Report from RileySENTINEL. This report offers critical event updates for locations where Riley Risk is actively managing risk, using data analyzed by DCDR.io and refined by our Geopolitical and Security Analysis Team. Our report delivers the latest security and geopolitical insights, providing detailed country-specific assessments to enhance your risk management strategy.
Riley Risk’s ethos of "Regional Experience, Local Expertise" is embodied by our team of experts, enriching our advisory services with specialized knowledge. The weekly GlobalPULSE Report serves as your trusted source for understanding operational risk environments and navigating global complexities.
The GlobalPULSE Report aims to be your trusted source for foundational insights on country-level operational risk environments and changes in risk factors, aiding you in navigating the complexities of global risks that may impact your organization’s operations, assets, and personnel. While the weekly report offers valuable insights, detailed analyses are available on demand from our skilled Geopolitical and Security Analysis team for specific countries and regions, tailored to your organizational needs. Since 2011, Riley Risk has maintained a reputation for meticulous risk management, in-depth expertise, and the development of relevant, modern strategies for complex environments. This is largely driven by our capacity to assemble talented regional and country analysts and advisors who deeply understand the environments within their respective reporting portfolios.
For in-depth, tailored analysis or to discover how we can support your operational needs with our expertise, schedule a call with the RileySENTINEL team. Set up a call here.
Integrated Risk Assessment and Reporting
Operational Risk Analysis and Weekly Reporting Method
This report integrates our operational risk assessment process with the Monitoring and Alerting Country Assessment Levels to provide a clear, concise overview of global security dynamics on a weekly basis.
Dynamic Country List & Monitoring Approach
Our team actively monitors a changing roster of countries, tailored to current responsibilities and influenced by client needs and strategic decisions. We focus on countries under our direct monitoring, ensuring a targeted approach informed by global trends and internal analyses.
Weekly Reporting Structure
Priority Level Updates: Specific emphasis on countries with significant security, geopolitical, and other priority level changes.
Scope: Our weekly reporting is designed for immediacy and relevance, focusing on concise insights for standard risk profiles over extended analysis.
Country Assessment Levels Integration
Each country is categorized under our Assessment & Monitoring Levels: Stable, Active WATCH, Moderate Risk, and High Risk.
These categories provide clarity solely on the nature and frequency of alerts, assessed risk conditions, and specific monitoring processes tailored to each risk level.
Extended Analysis Support Clients and subscribers requiring deeper analysis and reporting can request access to our specialized reports, or request a bespoke reporting effort using this link.
In conclusion, the GlobalPULSE aims to be your weekly insight routine, utilizing our approach for rigorous analysis and strategic insights, enabling you to navigate the complex tapestry of global risks.
Americas
Brazil
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Brazil is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Brazil: This week's critical events included the escalating feud between Elon Musk and Brazilian authorities over alleged censorship on X (formerly Twitter), with Musk claiming employees faced threats of arrest and promising a "data dump" once they are safe [SOURCE]. The situation prompted concerns about Brazil's judiciary [SOURCE] and triggered investigations into Musk's conduct [SOURCE]. Ongoing issues of note were the worsening dengue fever outbreak [SOURCE], Brazil's efforts to boost healthcare access [SOURCE], and economic developments like Scotiabank's expansion plans [SOURCE] and new oil discoveries [SOURCE].
Dominican Republic
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Dominican Republic is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Dominican Republic: This week's critical events included the environmental and economic impacts of sargassum seaweed affecting Caribbean resorts and tourism operators in the region, as evidenced by this report detailing the high costs associated with sargassum removal and beach cleaning efforts. Additionally, a concerning incident of suspected abduction and murder garnered attention, with a body found in a burned car believed to be that of a woman who was abducted on video. Ongoing issues of note were the persistent environmental challenges posed by sargassum blooms, which threaten the vital tourism industry, as well as concerns over public safety and crime.
El Salvador
Compared to the baseline, the situation in El Salvador is assessed as: consistent with the baseline assessment
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for El Salvador: This week's critical events included a crackdown on gangs and controversial policies by President Bukele, with one report describing his efforts as "the world's toughest gang crackdown." There were also concerning reports of violent crimes allegedly committed by Salvadoran nationals, including a murder and dismemberment case in the US. On the economic front, El Salvador sold a $1 billion bond linked to an potential IMF deal, though analysts suggest a rating upgrade is less likely. Ongoing issues of note were concerns over human rights, with charges upheld against environmental activists drawing criticism.
Guatemala
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Guatemala is assessed as: more calm than usual
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Guatemala: This week's critical events included a devastating outbreak of forest fires prompting a natural disaster declaration from the president as over 44 fires raged across the country. Compounding environmental concerns, a landfill fire also required emergency response measures. On the migration front, reports highlighted desperate attempts by Guatemalan youths to reach the United States, despite tragic incidents involving migrant relatives. Ongoing issues of note were the plight of migrants and advocacy efforts by Cardinal Álvaro Ramazzini, as well as the enduring human rights concerns surrounding the Guantánamo Bay detention camp.
Guyana
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Guyana is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Guyana: This week's critical events included scrutiny over the government's ability to translate economic growth from the oil sector into tangible benefits for citizens, with [SOURCE] highlighting the disconnect between Guyana's booming economy and lack of improvements for most Guyanese. Environmental concerns surrounding the extractives industry also emerged, with calls for [SOURCE] stricter environmental regulations and protection from potential oil spills, amid [SOURCE] worries over illegal mining impacts. Tensions arose over the $12.7 billion [SOURCE] sixth oil project approval for ExxonMobil and government efforts to secure sufficient liability coverage. Ongoing issues of note were the increasing dominance of foreign firms like ExxonMobil [SOURCE] in Guyana's oil boom, contractual disputes like the [SOURCE] $90 million lawsuit over the Wales gas project, and criticisms of [SOURCE] governance lapses. Efforts to develop non-oil sectors and social services like [SOURCE] cervical cancer elimination and [SOURCE] brachytherapy units were also reported.
Jamaica
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Jamaica is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Jamaica: This week's critical events included the government being urged to review access to relief loans for seasonal earners [SOURCE], a violent attack and robbery on an elderly woman heading to church [SOURCE], and the opposition slamming the government over an error in the Appropriation Act [SOURCE]. Ongoing issues of note were efforts to curb road crashes [SOURCE], the impact of macroeconomic successes on development [SOURCE], Lloyd's of London entering the medical insurance market [SOURCE], and Jamaica seeking a catastrophe bond for the upcoming hurricane season [SOURCE].
Mexico
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Mexico is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Mexico: This week's critical events included escalating tensions between Mexico and Ecuador over an armed raid by Ecuadorian police on the Mexican embassy in Quito to arrest a former vice president [SOURCE]. Mexico condemned the violation of diplomatic norms and suspended relations with Ecuador [SOURCE]. The incident sparked international criticism [SOURCE], with Mexico filing a case against Ecuador at the International Court of Justice [SOURCE]. Ongoing issues of note were border security and migration, with arrests at the U.S.-Mexico border declining amid increased Mexican enforcement [SOURCE], though concerns persisted over drug smuggling [SOURCE] and the emergence of dangerous synthetic opioids like xylazine [SOURCE]. Water scarcity also remained a pressing issue in parts of Mexico [SOURCE].
Nicaragua
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Nicaragua is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Nicaragua: This week's critical events included heightened tensions between the Nicaraguan government and the Catholic Church, with authorities [SOURCE] blocking the bank accounts of Catholic radio station Radio Maria. This move exacerbated ongoing concerns over religious freedom and state overreach in Nicaragua. Additionally, an analysis [SOURCE] highlighted the country's efforts to preserve historical memory and combat genocide, underscoring the enduring impact of past conflicts on Nicaraguan society. Ongoing issues of note were the strained relationship between the Ortega administration and the Catholic Church, as well as the nation's reckoning with its turbulent history.
Paraguay
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Paraguay is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
There was insufficient news on Paraguay to conduct a full assessment over this period.
Peru
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Peru is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Peru: This week's critical events included President Dina Boluarte embroiled in a [SOURCE] Rolex scandal, and Peru staking a claim for the world's oldest living person with Marcelino Abad, allegedly born in 1900 [SOURCE] [SOURCE] [SOURCE]. Ongoing issues of note were concerns over [SOURCE] mining pollution impacting citizens, [SOURCE] investor anxiety surrounding pension withdrawal debates, and the [SOURCE] [SOURCE] anchovy fishing season quotas. There were also reports of [SOURCE] dengue deaths tripling due to climate change, alongside defense modernization with [SOURCE] rocket system acquisitions and ongoing [SOURCE] India-Peru trade talks.
Venezuela
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Venezuela is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Venezuela: This week's critical events included Venezuela arresting former allies of President Maduro, including ex-oil minister Tareck El Aissami, in a major corruption probe within the state oil company PDVSA [SOURCE] [SOURCE]. The border dispute between Venezuela and Guyana also remained a key issue, with Venezuela submitting its position to the International Court of Justice [SOURCE] and the UK rebuking Venezuela over threats to Guyana's territory [SOURCE]. Ongoing issues of note were concerns over the upcoming presidential election process raised by the U.S. [SOURCE], calls from U.S. senators for renewed sanctions [SOURCE], and signs of converging U.S. policy approaches towards Venezuela [SOURCE].
Asia Pacific
Bangladesh
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Bangladesh is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Bangladesh: This week's critical events included escalating tensions along the Myanmar border, with reports of [SOURCE] 9 more Myanmar border guards entering Bangladesh, likely fleeing the ongoing turmoil. Additionally, a [SOURCE] Bangladesh-flagged vessel was freed by Somali pirates after being held captive. On the domestic front, concerns were raised over air pollution levels in Dhaka, with the capital's air quality ranking among [SOURCE] the worst globally even during Eid celebrations. A concerning incident of [SOURCE] violence against medical personnel also occurred. Ongoing issues of note were the plight of the Rohingya refugees, with reports of [SOURCE] forced recruitment by the Myanmar military, as well as efforts by aid organizations to [SOURCE] provide job training on the refugee island of Bhashan Char.
Cambodia
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Cambodia is assessed as: consistent with the baseline assessment
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Cambodia: This week's critical events included growing concerns over the exploitation of monkeys at the Angkor UNESCO World Heritage site by YouTubers seeking viral content [SOURCE] [SOURCE] [SOURCE]. Ongoing issues of note were the increasing legal harassment of journalists in Cambodia [SOURCE], concerns over official complicity in cyber trafficking [SOURCE], and controversies surrounding forced evictions from the Angkor site [SOURCE]. Additionally, the government announced plans for a major $2.3 billion canal project [SOURCE] [SOURCE], while research highlighted links between deforestation and health issues like stunting and anemia [SOURCE].
Fiji
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Fiji is assessed as: consistent with the baseline assessment
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Fiji: This week's critical events included growing concerns over potential political interference in the country's electoral processes. Critics have alleged that elements within the ruling coalition want to oust the elections chief, raising questions about the government's commitment to upholding democratic norms and principles. Ongoing issues of note were the implications of such actions on Fiji's upcoming general elections, with fears that attempts to undermine the independence of electoral institutions could undermine the integrity and credibility of the electoral process.
India
Compared to the baseline, the situation in India is assessed as: consistent with the baseline assessment
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for India: This week's critical events included tensions along the India-China border, with PM Modi stating the need to [SOURCE] urgently address the situation. India also called for restraint amid escalating Israel-Iran conflicts, [SOURCE] temporarily suspending flights to Israel. The BJP released its manifesto promising more bullet trains [SOURCE] across India. Ongoing issues of note were India's attempts to attract foreign investment, with Elon Musk confirming plans to [SOURCE] visit and meet PM Modi, while Apple [SOURCE] doubled iPhone production in India. Diplomatic tensions also arose as Canada reduced staff [SOURCE] across its Indian missions.
Indonesia
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Indonesia is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Indonesia: This week's critical events included the annual Eid al-Fitr exodus, with over 190 million people expected to travel [SOURCE][SOURCE][SOURCE]. Festive traditions like the "takjil war" showcased religious tolerance [SOURCE]. A 6.6 magnitude earthquake struck eastern Indonesia, though no tsunami alert was issued [SOURCE][SOURCE]. Ongoing issues of note were discussions on boosting Indonesia's relations with Central Asia [SOURCE], efforts to curb electrical goods imports [SOURCE], and positive trends emerging from Indonesia's 2023 forest fires [SOURCE]. Tragically, landslides in Sulawesi killed at least 19 people [SOURCE][SOURCE].
Maldives
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Maldives is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Maldives: This week's critical events included strained India-Maldives ties following a controversy over an Indian flag post by a Maldivian minister, who later apologized [SOURCE]. Amidst this diplomatic tension, the Maldives announced plans to hold roadshows in India to boost tourism [SOURCE] [SOURCE] [SOURCE], as Indian tourist arrivals declined significantly [SOURCE]. Ongoing issues of note were discussions between the two countries on paying for imports in local currency [SOURCE], and the withdrawal of a second batch of Indian military personnel from the Maldives [SOURCE] [SOURCE] [SOURCE]. Additionally, Maldivian Airlines resumed flights from Thiruvananthapuram [SOURCE].
Marshall Islands
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Marshall Islands is assessed as: consistent with the baseline assessment
Weekly Country Update:
There was insufficient news on Marshall Islands to conduct a full assessment over this period.
Myanmar
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Myanmar is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Myanmar: This week's critical events included intensified fighting between Myanmar's military junta and ethnic rebel groups, resulting in the junta's loss of control over a strategic border town with Thailand. The Karen National Union [SOURCE] captured the Myawaddy border crossing, forcing Myanmar troops to retreat [SOURCE]. The junta slammed the UN for alleged "one-sided" human rights claims [SOURCE] amid an escalating humanitarian crisis. Ongoing issues of note were the economic toll of the conflict, with the UN warning of a "free fall" and rapidly eroding middle class [SOURCE], as well as India's efforts to secure its borders [SOURCE] and relocate consulate staff [SOURCE] amid safety concerns.
Nepal
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Nepal is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Nepal: This week's critical events included a tragic incident where [SOURCE] seven Nepalese tourists died after their vehicle plunged into a gorge in Nainital, India. Furthermore, there were clashes between [SOURCE] pro-monarchy protesters demanding the restoration of Nepal's Hindu state and police in Kathmandu. Ongoing issues of note were the [SOURCE] scientific study of Himalayan geological history through microscopic crystal analysis, plans to [SOURCE] retrieve five bodies from Mount Everest, and [SOURCE] fintech partnerships promoting digital payments in Nepal. Additionally, multiple reports covered the [SOURCE] [SOURCE] [SOURCE] demands from certain groups to reinstate Nepal's Hindu monarchy, highlighting sociopolitical tensions. Economic ties were also referenced, with the [SOURCE] Nepalese envoy stating India is Nepal's largest investor.
Pakistan
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Pakistan is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Pakistan: This week's critical events included a lethal blast near a mosque in Quetta that killed 1 and injured 12 [SOURCE]. The US urged Pakistan and India to resolve tensions through dialogue and avoid escalation over reports of "targeted killings" [SOURCE] [SOURCE]. In cricket news, Mohammad Amir and Imad Wasim were recalled to Pakistan's squad for the upcoming New Zealand T20I series [SOURCE]. Ongoing issues of note were political tensions, as the opposition alliance vowed nationwide protests [SOURCE], and Pakistan's economic woes with 25% inflation being the highest in Asia according to ADB [SOURCE]. Violence also flared, with militants killing 11 in Balochistan [SOURCE] and 14 dying in rain-related incidents [SOURCE]. Regionally, India's defense minister offered assistance if Pakistan cannot combat terrorism alone [SOURCE].
Papua New Guinea
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Papua New Guinea is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
There was insufficient news on Papua New Guinea to conduct a full assessment over this period.
Philippines
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Philippines is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Philippines: This week's critical events included rising tensions in the South China Sea, with protesters in the Philippines condemning China's perceived maritime aggression by trampling on an effigy of President Xi Jinping [SOURCE]. The US Indo-Pacific Commander expressed grave concerns about Chinese actions in the disputed waters [SOURCE], and the US signaled plans for increased joint maritime patrols with allies [SOURCE]. Domestically, the Philippines warned of scorching heat [SOURCE] and reported a rise in pertussis cases with 54 deaths [SOURCE]. Ongoing issues of note were the high-stakes trilateral summit between the US, Japan, and the Philippines where regional security and economic cooperation were discussed to counter China's assertiveness [SOURCE]. President Marcos denied any secret deal with Beijing on the South China Sea dispute [SOURCE], while Biden reaffirmed US defense commitments to the Philippines and Japan as "ironclad" [SOURCE].
Solomon Islands
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Solomon Islands is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Solomon Islands: This week's critical events included Solomon Islands' general election on April 14th, which was closely watched by the United States, China, and Australia amidst regional geopolitical tensions and the ongoing competition for influence in the Pacific region. [SOURCE] [SOURCE] The election also served as a potential referendum on the leadership of Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare, who has been criticized for his "master of mayhem" governance style. [SOURCE] In a symbolic gesture, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Papua New Guinean Prime Minister James Marape announced plans to walk the Kokoda Track together in an Anzac Day visit, as Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang prepares for an upcoming trip to PNG. [SOURCE] Ongoing issues of note were the growing tensions between China and the U.S.-allied nations over influence in the Pacific, with the Solomon Islands election emerging as a crucial battleground in this strategic contest.
Sri Lanka
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Sri Lanka is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Sri Lanka: This week's critical events included controversies surrounding the Katchatheevu island's ownership, with India's Prime Minister Modi attacking opposition parties Congress and DMK for their past stances on the issue [SOURCE] [SOURCE]. Fishermen detentions by Sri Lankan authorities also remained a point of tension [SOURCE] [SOURCE]. Ongoing issues of note were the longstanding maritime disputes between India and Sri Lanka, with calls for resolving the Katchatheevu conflict through diplomacy [SOURCE], and concerns over electoral rhetoric jeopardizing ties [SOURCE].
Thailand
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Thailand is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Thailand: This week's critical events included escalating clashes between Myanmar's military and rebel groups near the Thai border, prompting an exodus of civilians [SOURCE]. Thailand affirmed its readiness to receive up to 100,000 refugees fleeing the violence [SOURCE]. The Chinese electric vehicle industry is making inroads in challenging Japanese brands in Thailand [SOURCE]. Ongoing issues of note were Thailand's response to the political turmoil in Myanmar [SOURCE], the potential return of former PM Thaksin's sister Yingluck [SOURCE], and regulatory changes impacting Thailand's cannabis industry [SOURCE].
Vietnam
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Vietnam is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Vietnam: This week's critical events included escalating tensions between Vietnam and Cambodia over the proposed Funan Techo Canal project, with Vietnam officially requesting Cambodia to share information about the potentially impactful waterway. The historic visit by the Vatican's foreign minister aimed at normalizing relations with Vietnam also captured global attention. Notably, Vietnamese real estate tycoon Truong My Lan received a death sentence in the country's largest-ever fraud case involving $12 billion. Ongoing issues of note were increasing economic concerns, with businesses worried about dollar appreciation and the government warning of potential water shortages due to drought. Regionally, Vietnam aims to raise strategic trust with China while cooperating on South China Sea issues with the Philippines and US. Environmental challenges like housing encroachment on flood zones and threats to Central Highlands forests also remained pressing matters.
Europe & Eurasia
Albania
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Albania is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
There was insufficient news on Albania to conduct a full assessment over this period. The provided news stories focus on EU migration law overhaul and do not appear to be directly relevant to significant events within Albania itself.
Armenia
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Armenia is assessed as: consistent with the baseline assessment
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Armenia: This week's critical events included discussions in the Armenian parliament on the delimitation of the border with Azerbaijan [SOURCE], with Armenia indicating it is not against starting the process from four villages in Azerbaijan's Gazakh region [SOURCE]. However, a border incident resulted in an Armenian border guard being wounded by gunfire from Azerbaijani forces [SOURCE] [SOURCE]. Russia affirmed its readiness to assist in the delimitation process [SOURCE], while the EU called for "substantial" talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan [SOURCE]. Ongoing issues of note were the potential for further border tensions [SOURCE] [SOURCE], Armenia's strained relations with Russia [SOURCE] [SOURCE], and efforts to overcome Armenia's isolation through ties with Georgia [SOURCE] and a potential peace treaty involving Kazakhstan [SOURCE].
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
There was insufficient news on Bosnia and Herzegovina to conduct a full assessment over this period.
Finland
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Finland is assessed as: consistent with the baseline assessment
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Finland: This week's critical events included Finland's move to increase its ownership of the Kietyönmäki lithium project to 100% [SOURCE], as well as reports on NATO's plans to establish a ground forces headquarters near the Russian border [SOURCE], though the timeline for this decision remains uncertain [SOURCE]. Tensions with Russia also escalated, with Finland indefinitely closing its border to block asylum seekers and prepare for potential conflict [SOURCE], prompting warnings from Moscow about countermeasures if Finland poses a nuclear threat [SOURCE]. Ongoing issues of note were Finland's efforts towards sustainability, with a groundbreaking thermal energy project set to use waste heat from electronics to warm the city in winter [SOURCE], though concerns over the global spread of bird flu also emerged as a potential threat [SOURCE].
France
Compared to the baseline, the situation in France is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for France: This week's critical events included escalating tensions in the Middle East, with France warning its citizens against travel to Iran, Lebanon, Israel, and the Palestinian Territories amid fears of potential attacks or military escalation following Iran's strikes on Israel. France joined other world leaders in condemning Iran's actions and collectively worked with the US and UK to thwart further attacks. Domestically, France passed a new anti-cult law despite Senate opposition and took steps to legalize assisted suicide for terminally ill patients. Ongoing issues included strengthening strategic partnerships with Singapore and Germany, addressing racial profiling by police, and preparing security for major events like the 2024 Paris Olympics.
Greece
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Greece is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Greece: This week's critical events included Greece prioritizing efforts to combat climate change and its impacts, with a proposed $2.3 billion program [SOURCE] following devastating wildfires last year. The country also celebrated strides in renewable energy, leading Europe with 54% of electricity generated from wind power [SOURCE]. However, rising inflation, particularly a 67% surge in olive oil prices [SOURCE], posed economic challenges. Ongoing issues of note were Greece's efforts to overhaul its healthcare system [SOURCE], bolster educational ties with India [SOURCE], and address its declining birthrate [SOURCE]. Additionally, the country repatriated an antiquity vase stolen during World War II [SOURCE] and held historic Eid prayers in a former mosque [SOURCE].
Kyrgyzstan
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Kyrgyzstan is assessed as: consistent with the baseline assessment
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Kyrgyzstan: This week's critical events included increased economic cooperation with Kazakhstan, as the latter expressed readiness to boost exports to Kyrgyzstan [SOURCE]. Geopolitical tensions arose with Russia's reaction to a terror attack, creating a dilemma for Putin in handling Central Asian security [SOURCE]. Human rights concerns were raised over allegations of abuse against a detained Kyrgyz journalist [SOURCE]. Ongoing issues of note were Kyrgyzstan's participation in regional blocs like the Eurasian Economic Union, as evidenced by meetings involving Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov [SOURCE] and discussions on the EAEU's role in the "Greater Eurasian Partnership" [SOURCE]. Kyrgyzstan's engagement with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization was also highlighted [SOURCE].
Poland
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Poland is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Poland: This week's critical events included debates and protests around potential liberalization of Poland's strict abortion laws, with lawmakers considering bills to ease the near-total ban [SOURCE]. Thousands marched against any loosening of abortion restrictions [SOURCE], while opposition leader Kaczynski signaled openness to some liberalization [SOURCE]. Ongoing issues of note were tensions over Ukrainian refugees and grain imports impacting Polish farmers [SOURCE], concerns over Russia's military activities and potential threats [SOURCE], and controversies involving the Catholic Church [SOURCE].
Serbia
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Serbia is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Serbia: This week's critical events included Serbia considering the purchase of French-made Rafale fighter jets, which would mark a significant shift away from its traditional reliance on Russian military hardware [SOURCE] [SOURCE] [SOURCE]. French President Emmanuel Macron urged Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić to align Serbia's foreign policy more closely with the European Union during their meeting in Paris [SOURCE]. Ongoing issues of note were the need for Western Balkan countries, including Serbia, to boost innovation and competitiveness [SOURCE], the potential deportation of anti-war Russian families from Serbia [SOURCE], calls for Serbia to resist Russian sanctions "blackmail" [SOURCE], speculation about Serbia joining BRICS [SOURCE], and commemorations of NATO's 1999 bombing campaign and the 2004 ethnic violence in Kosovo [SOURCE] [SOURCE].
Sweden
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Sweden is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Sweden: This week's critical events included Sweden's ongoing preparations for potential NATO membership, including plans to invest heavily in civil defense infrastructure like bomb shelters [SOURCE] and rebuilding its civil defense capabilities [SOURCE]. There were also reports of Sweden potentially sending troops to Ukraine alongside NATO allies [SOURCE]. On the domestic front, a high-profile shooting sparked outcry over gang violence [SOURCE], while slowing inflation raised prospects of an early rate cut by Sweden's central bank [SOURCE]. Ongoing issues of note were national security concerns leading to the expulsion of a Chinese journalist [SOURCE], and controversies surrounding the upcoming Eurovision song contest [SOURCE].
Ukraine
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Ukraine is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Ukraine: This week's critical events included a growing sense of urgency surrounding continued U.S. military aid to Ukraine, with President Zelenskyy issuing an ultimatum that Ukraine will lose the war without further American funding. Congress returned from recess with the aid package still stalled, prompting visits from British Prime Minister David Cameron to meet with Secretary Blinken and lawmakers to reaffirm support for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russia continued its drone and missile strikes, with Ukraine claiming to have repelled 20 drone attacks but sustaining damage to energy infrastructure. Ongoing issues of note were the revelations that the U.S. had transferred seized Iranian munitions to Ukraine, as well as approving $138 million in air defense equipment sales. Russia accused Ukraine of striking the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which it controls, though Ukraine denied the claims. Concerns mounted about Ukraine's ability to sustain the fight, with a U.S. general warning time is running out without more aid, and a former UK commander saying Ukraine is at serious risk of defeat this year. Proposed solutions ranged from brokering peace talks (which Russia dismissed as "nonsense" without its involvement), to Trump suggesting converting aid to loans. Amid the stalemate, House Speaker Mike Johnson vowed to push for Ukraine and Israel aid this week, saying Trump is "100% united" with him on it.
United Kingdom
Compared to the baseline, the situation in United Kingdom is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for United Kingdom: This week's critical events included escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, with reports of Iran launching an unprecedented attack of over 200 drones and missiles towards Israel [SOURCE]. The U.S., U.K., and Jordan were involved in intercepting many of these Iranian weapons before they reached their target [SOURCE]. In response, Israel called up reserves for a potential conflict with Gaza [SOURCE]. Ongoing issues of note were the UK and US expanding sanctions against Russia, further restricting trade in Russian-origin metals [SOURCE]. The UK also increased income requirements for family visas by 55% in an effort to control migration [SOURCE]. Additionally, European leaders, including Lord Pickles from the UK, issued warnings about rising antisemitism [SOURCE].
Uzbekistan
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Uzbekistan is assessed as: consistent with the baseline assessment
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Uzbekistan: This week's critical events included efforts to bolster Uzbekistan's transportation infrastructure with the launch of [SOURCE] regular flights by Uzbekistan Airways to the UK, and plans for [SOURCE] domestic flights by Uzbek Silk Avia between Bukhara and Urgench. Additionally, Uzbekistan aims to [SOURCE] allow private medical facilities to deliver babies, potentially expanding healthcare options. On the economic front, [SOURCE] Chinese companies will invest $350 million in a solar power plant in Jizzakh, furthering Uzbekistan's renewable energy ambitions. Ongoing issues of note were strengthening defense ties, as highlighted by the [SOURCE] India-Uzbekistan joint military exercise DUSTLIK.
Middle East & North Africa
Iraq
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Iraq is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Iraq: This week's critical events in Iraq included escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, with Iran launching missile and drone attacks [SOURCE] that prompted airspace closures over Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon [SOURCE]. The U.S. engaged Iranian drones over Iraqi airspace [SOURCE], raising concerns about potential escalation and American vulnerability [SOURCE]. Turkey continued operations against PKK militants in northern Iraq [SOURCE]. Ongoing issues included Iraq's economic ties with Iran through a new gas deal [SOURCE] and efforts to redefine its relationship with the U.S. beyond military cooperation [SOURCE].
Israel
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Israel is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Israel: This week's critical events included an escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran, culminating in a reported Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel [SOURCE][SOURCE][SOURCE]. The attacks prompted Israel to strike targets in Lebanon [SOURCE] and led to temporary airspace closures in Israel and neighboring countries [SOURCE]. Ongoing issues of note were the deteriorating relations between Israel and Turkey, with Turkey imposing trade restrictions over the conflict in Gaza [SOURCE][SOURCE], and the Biden administration facing criticism for its stance towards Israel amid the violence [SOURCE][SOURCE].
Jordan
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Jordan is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Jordan: This week's critical events included heightened geopolitical tensions after Jordan [SOURCE] and Iraq [SOURCE] temporarily closed their airspace amid reported Iranian drone attacks targeting Israel. Jordan also summoned the Iranian ambassador to protest the violation of its airspace [SOURCE]. Additionally, a deadly fire incident at a residential building in Jordan caused multiple fatalities [SOURCE] [SOURCE]. Ongoing issues of note were concerns over regional stability amidst the Iran-Israel tensions [SOURCE], as well as the impact on civil aviation and tourism in Jordan [SOURCE].
Lebanon
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Lebanon is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Lebanon: This week's critical events included heightened sectarian and political tensions following the killing of a Lebanese Christian party official, which fueled calls for tighter restrictions on Syrian refugees [SOURCE][SOURCE][SOURCE][SOURCE][SOURCE]. Concurrent military tensions between Israel and Hezbollah escalated into cross-border strikes [SOURCE][SOURCE][SOURCE][SOURCE][SOURCE][SOURCE][SOURCE][SOURCE][SOURCE][SOURCE][SOURCE][SOURCE][SOURCE][SOURCE][SOURCE][SOURCE][SOURCE][SOURCE][SOURCE]Back to top
Libya
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Libya is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
There was insufficient news on Libya to conduct a full assessment over this period. The provided story does not appear directly relevant to significant events or themes in Libya from this week.
Sudan
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Sudan is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Sudan: This week's critical events included the escalating humanitarian crisis stemming from Sudan's yearlong civil war, which has left millions facing starvation and lack of access to aid [SOURCE]. The conflict has disproportionately impacted vulnerable groups like women and children [SOURCE], [SOURCE]. Ongoing issues of note were the potential game-changing role of Iranian-supplied drones [SOURCE], calls for international attention and aid [SOURCE], and Canada's pledge of $132 million in humanitarian assistance [SOURCE].
Syria
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Syria is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Syria: This week's critical events included escalating tensions and military confrontations between Iran and Israel over the Israeli airstrike on Iran's consulate in Damascus. Iran condemned the strike as a [SOURCE] violation of international law and vowed to retaliate, with its Supreme Leader stating Israel "must be punished." Israel, in turn, threatened [SOURCE] direct attacks on Iran if Tehran carried out strikes from its territory. The tensions escalated rapidly, with the U.S. warning of [SOURCE] an imminent Iranian strike on Israel within 24-48 hours. Airlines rerouted flights, and Western nations advised against travel to Israel as Iran and its proxies launched [SOURCE] a barrage of drones and missiles toward Israel, involving over 300 projectiles according to Israeli estimates. Israel claimed to have intercepted around 99% of the strikes with support from the U.S. and U.K. Ongoing issues of note were the persistent conflict in southern Syria's Daraa governorate [SOURCE] despite renewed regime control, and the plight of Palestinian refugees [SOURCE] suffering from poverty and displacement within Syria. There were also Israeli strikes on Hezbollah and Iranian targets [SOURCE] inside Syria amid the broader shadow war between Israel and Iran's regional proxies.
Tunisia
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Tunisia is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Tunisia: This week's critical events included the tragic capsizing of migrant boats in the Mediterranean, resulting in fatalities and missing persons. According to the Italian coast guard, [SOURCE] nine people were killed when a boat carrying migrants capsized. Additionally, the United Nations reported [SOURCE] that 45 Tunisian migrants were missing after their boat capsized. Ongoing issues of note were the risks faced by Tunisian migrants attempting to cross the Mediterranean to reach Europe, highlighting the desperation and dangers associated with irregular migration from the region.
Sub-Saharan Africa
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Democratic Republic of the Congo is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Democratic Republic of the Congo: This week's critical events included escalating violence and unrest, particularly in the eastern regions, with reports of mortar attacks claiming the lives of Tanzanian peacekeepers [SOURCE] and suspected Islamist rebels killing at least 10 civilians [SOURCE]. The long-running conflict involving the M23 rebel group also continued to displace thousands, though host families offered vital support [SOURCE]. Tensions with neighboring Rwanda persisted, with analysis examining the role of Tutsi militias in the region's turmoil [SOURCE]. Ongoing issues of note were the potential for further instability linked to the Burundi-Rwanda rivalry [SOURCE], as well as efforts by India to secure access to critical mineral resources like copper and cobalt [SOURCE].
Ethiopia
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Ethiopia is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Ethiopia: This week's critical events included an escalating diplomatic row between Somalia and Ethiopia over the latter's military involvement in Somalia's internal affairs [SOURCE]. Additionally, Ethiopia announced plans to ban the import of gasoline-powered vehicles, positioning itself as a potential leader in promoting electric vehicles on the African continent [SOURCE]. Ongoing issues of note were Ethiopia's negotiations with the International Monetary Fund for a potential bailout, which may require a currency devaluation [SOURCE], as well as continued regional instability spilling into the capital Addis Ababa, resulting in a deadly militia shootout [SOURCE] [SOURCE].
Guinea
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Guinea is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
There was insufficient news on Guinea to conduct a full assessment over this period. The provided stories appear to be about issues in Somalia, Papua New Guinea, and Nauru, which are not directly relevant to events in Guinea.
Mali
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Mali is assessed as: more calm than usual
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Mali: This week's critical events included the suspension of all political activities in Mali until further notice by the ruling military junta, signaling a further tightening of their grip on power [SOURCE] [SOURCE] [SOURCE]. The junta also imposed a ban on media outlets reporting on political activities in the country, further restricting freedom of speech and press [SOURCE] [SOURCE]. Ongoing issues of note were the nation's efforts to promote local languages in education through artificial intelligence, amidst tensions with former colonial power France [SOURCE].
Nigeria
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Nigeria is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Nigeria: This week's critical events included rising cryptocurrency usage amid foreign exchange interventions [SOURCE], the lingering trauma from kidnappings and school abductions like Chibok [SOURCE] [SOURCE] [SOURCE], and the World Health Organization's alarm over hepatitis deaths [SOURCE]. Ongoing issues of note were declining West African fish stocks due to illegal trawling, climate change, and artisanal overfishing [SOURCE], reduced school attendance from the kidnapping crisis affecting girls disproportionately [SOURCE], a sextortion scam by Nigerian brothers [SOURCE], food insecurity affecting nearly 55 million in West/Central Africa [SOURCE], military operations against militants and oil thieves [SOURCE], and Nigeria pioneering a new meningitis vaccine rollout [SOURCE].
Senegal
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Senegal is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Senegal: This week's critical events included the introduction of inclusive education for deaf and hard-of-hearing students in some Senegalese classrooms, allowing them to study alongside their peers [SOURCE] [SOURCE]. Additionally, the resumption of a ferry link between Senegal's mainland and its isolated southern region brought joy and relief to residents [SOURCE]. Ongoing issues of note were the country's efforts to promote inclusivity and accessibility in education, as well as improving regional connectivity and transportation infrastructure.
Tanzania
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Tanzania is assessed as: consistent with the baseline assessment
Weekly Country Update:
There was insufficient news on Tanzania to conduct a full assessment over this period. The provided stories do not appear to cover significant current events or themes directly relevant to Tanzania from a geopolitical perspective.
Zambia
Compared to the baseline, the situation in Zambia is assessed as: more turbulent than usual
Weekly Country Update:
Weekly News Summary for Zambia: This week's critical events included an [SOURCE] analysis of elephant population trends revealing a stable overall number but concerning regional declines. Authorities uncovered a [SOURCE] [SOURCE] "sophisticated" Chinese cybercrime syndicate operating in the country. There was also [SOURCE] reaction from church groups over the summoning of a Catholic priest, and [SOURCE] commentary on Chinese criminal activities. Domestically, the President [SOURCE] fired the head of the public media authority. Ongoing issues of note were concerns over [SOURCE] poverty and health challenges, debates surrounding the [SOURCE] debt restructuring process, and efforts by the government to [SOURCE] regain control of a major copper mine. Zambia's futsal team also had a [SOURCE] successful start at the African tournament.
As we conclude this week's Global Pulse Report, we hope the insightful summaries provided have been valuable in enhancing your situational awareness and supporting your operational risk management decisions. For organizations requiring more detailed security insights, reporting, or assessment support for these and other global locations, Riley Risk stands ready to assist.
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