Key Findings

• Twelve years of civil war have decimated the Syrian economy by more than 50%. Since 2018, 90% of Syria’s 25 million people live below the poverty line. The country is at least $20 billion in debt from foreign loans. 
• While many of Syria’s economic sectors have collapsed over the past decade, Syria remains a hotspot for Captagon production and smuggling along the nation's borders. 
• Agricultural production has declined to a quarter of the pre-war total, just 1 million tonnes being produced yearly. Agricultural workers represent just 16% of Syria’s workforce, a significant drop from prewar levels. 
• Many of Syria’s natural gas and oil fields, which are concentrated in eastern Syria, remain contested between ISIS and Kurdish forces in addition to a significant US presence.
• Terrorism and sectarian divide continue to be critical threats to national security across the country. Recent ISIS attacks have proven that the terror group remains an active threat in both rural parts of the country and even the capital itself. 
• The US implemented a significant amount of sanctions relief, issuing Syria with a General License 25 that effectively lifts most sanctions and authorizes US businesses to invest in Syria's private sector. The EU has lifted all sanctions on banking, key recovery sectors, media and television outlets, and energy production. 
• Saudi Arabia and Qatar have cleared Syria's $15.5 million debt owed to the World Bank. This gesture has allowed Syria to become eligible for new loans and grants from the World Bank for reconstruction and development efforts.
• Foreign investors, including Türkiye, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, have initiated limited re-engagement with Syria’s economy, despite high risk and uncertainty. These early moves primarily target strategic sectors expected to feature in future reconstruction efforts.
• Several sectors, such as hydrocarbons, agriculture, and tourism, remain critically underperforming and are not yet viable for widespread investment due to security and infrastructure constraints.

Summary

Since the collapse of the Assad regime and the ascendancy of the new Syrian government led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, the economic and security situation in Syria has remained volatile. The country's GDP, exports, and various economic industries have plummeted while the national debt, rate of poverty, and sectarian divide remain staggeringly high. Additionally, the threats of sectarian violence, terrorism, and drug smuggling have proven to be persistent challenges since the opening days of the civil war. Recent developments in Syria, including sanctions and debt relief, provide insight into industries such as construction, communications, and electricity, among others, that can allow rebuilding Syria and bringing it out of the war-torn devastation it has endured since 2012. This report will analyze the multifaceted risks and opportunities present in Syria, as well as the efforts required to initiate the gradual reconstruction of the country.