Executive Summary

Ukraine enters a tactically favorable period, but strategic uncertainty deepens. In February 2026, Ukrainian forces recorded a net positive territorial gain for the first time since the summer 2023 counteroffensive, recovering approximately 257 square kilometers according to ISW analysis published March 3, a shift ISW analysts attribute in part to SpaceX blocking unauthorized Russian use of Ukrainian-registered Starlink terminals in mid-February. Despite battlefield gains, the war remains attritional: at least 200,186 Russian personnel have been independently documented as killed by Mediazona and the BBC through February 19, while the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates 500,000 to 600,000 Ukrainian military casualties. Tripartite US-Ukraine-Russia talks have continued without a breakthrough, with a planned March 5-6 session being reconsidered following the US-Israel strike on Iran. Organizations and personnel operating in or near eastern Ukraine face elevated risk of drone and missile strikes, continued front-line activity across the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia axis, and disruptions to energy infrastructure.

European rearmament has accelerated significantly, driven by US strategic ambiguity and the Ukraine war's fourth anniversary. EU defense spending rose 80% in 2025 compared to pre-war levels, according to European Commission President von der Leyen at the Munich Security Conference in February. NATO members committed at the Hague summit to a 5% GDP defense target by 2034, with Poland already at 4.8% and among the top NATO contributors. The EU approved its €150 billion SAFE defense loan mechanism, with Poland allocated the largest share at €43.7 billion. Internal coherence remains a structural challenge: Hungary has blocked a €90 billion EU aid package for Ukraine and vetoed the 20th sanctions package, directly impacting NATO's eastern flank partners. France has announced an expansion of its nuclear arsenal, with Germany, the UK, and Poland joining a broader nuclear deterrence coordination framework.