Executive Summary

Russia's spring offensive is now operationally underway, with record drone and missile volumes targeting Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. On 7 April, at least eight civilians were killed and dozens injured across Dnipropetrovsk and Kherson oblasts. Ukraine has matched Russia's deep-strike drone output for the first time, launching approximately 7,000 long-range drones in March targeting oil export terminals and air defense systems. Peace talks remain deadlocked after Moscow rejected Zelenskyy's Easter ceasefire proposal.

Hungary's 12 April parliamentary election will likely determine whether the EU can unify on Ukraine support. Opposition leader Peter Magyar's Tisza party leads Fidesz by 8-11 points in independent polls. The campaign has been shaped by credible allegations of Russian intelligence interference, a visit by US Vice President JD Vance on 7 April, and Orban's continued blocking of a EUR 90 billion EU loan to Kyiv.

The discovery of 4 kilograms of plastic explosives near the TurkStream pipeline in northern Serbia on 5 April exposed the vulnerability of energy corridors feeding Central Europe. Serbia's military intelligence contradicted Budapest by stating Ukraine was not responsible. Hungarian opposition figures had publicly predicted the incident days before it occurred, one week ahead of elections. The episode illustrates how energy dependencies and information warfare now intersect with democratic processes across the region.

Georgia's political crisis deepened as the EU suspended visa-free travel for Georgian diplomatic passport holders on 6 March and the EU Parliament called for targeted sanctions on 12 March. Georgian Dream has responded with further repressive measures. Protests on Rustaveli Avenue have continued for over 460 days, with opposition groups announcing a vigil at Parliament on 8 April demanding new elections.

The Western Balkans face compounding pressures from the stalled Belgrade-Pristina dialogue, debate over potential US KFOR troop reductions, and rising military cooperation between Kosovo, Albania, and Croatia. A bipartisan group of US legislators warned in March that even the perception of American disengagement could destabilize the region.

Turkey and Greece are engaged in a renewed Aegean sovereignty dispute after Athens deployed Patriot air defense systems to Karpathos in March. Ankara formally protested to NATO, the US, and the EU; Athens dismissed the claims as unfounded. Turkey deployed fighter jets to northern Cyprus in response.