Key Findings

• Over 20 drones were detected entering Polish airspace in an incident in early September. The first of many reported drone-inclusion incidents across Europe and Eurasia, with varying degrees of legitimate Russian origin, however still having real impact.
• The drone incursions led to consultations under Article Four of NATO, with Operation Eastern Sentry was launched a few days later as a consequence.
• Denmark was the country impacted most besides Poland, with several large drones causing major flight disruptions.
• Russia denies any responsibility, accusing Europe of finding a reason to boost defense spending and portraying Russia as a threat.
• These hybrid actions align well with Russian tactics of employing means below the threshold of open war, while still allowing the country to deny involvement.
• Russia is testing Europe’s and NATO’s unity by trying to shift the focus from Ukraine to domestic security concerns and aiming to raise the costs for European defense.
• The EU has created a goal for establishing a “drone wall” by 2027 that would defend EU members from future drone incursions from countries like Russia.  
• NATO is expediting the creation of more effective counter-drone initiatives while also establishing its own drone capabilities.