Key Findings

• After the fall of the Soviet Union, Europe saw an opportunity to deepen economic and, especially, energy interdependence with Russia
• The cheap energy from Russia created a high dependence on the European side and the false hope of “change through trade” (Wandel durch Handel in German)
• Many European countries depended heavily on Russian gas and imported between 60% and even 100% of their total gas imports, even Eastern European countries that were critical of the dependence on Russian gas
• The Russian invasion of Ukraine provided the shock that proved to be pivotal for the swift decoupling from Russian energy; Europe diversified its energy sources, mainly to LNG
• Russia has weaponized energy in the past and still exerts influence through countries like Hungary, Slovakia, or Serbia to divide Europe on topics that concern Russian interests
• The closure of Ukraine’s gas transit route has eliminated a critical emergency supply corridor, thereby increasing vulnerability in the event of infrastructure sabotage or extreme winter demand.
• Transnistria’s energy isolation since January 2025 has rendered it a humanitarian weak point and a pressure point in Russia’s broader destabilization strategy.
• Moldova’s upcoming 2025 elections present a real risk of internal shift toward Moscow, with energy leverage playing a central role in Russia’s influence campaign.

Summary

This report aims to analyze the development of energy imports from Russia and the impact of disruptions and policy changes on the energy security of Eastern Europe and Eurasia. Russia has already used energy as a tool for economic blackmail by unilaterally cutting gas flows to European partners in 2006, 2009, 2014, and before and after its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. When Gazprom sharply cut supplies in 2022, Europe realized that something had to be done to reduce its dependence on Russian oil and gas. The sabotage of Nord Stream 1 and 2 has further emphasized the importance of diversifying energy imports from other suppliers.

Europe successfully transitioned its energy supplies from Russia to other sources such as Norway, the U.S., and Qatar, but this came at a high cost to avoid a severe energy crisis during the continent's winter. Europe managed to reduce its dependence on Russian pipeline gas, mainly thanks to liquified natural gas (LNG), the import of which increased by almost 70% between 2021 and 2022. Russian energy continues to be supplied to Europe, and this report discusses the risks related to the client’s energy access, political stability, and the strategic positioning of their region.