Report Details
Initial Publish Date
Last Updated: 20 FEB 2026
Report Focus Location: Global
Authors: GSAT
Contributors: GSAT
GSAT Lead: MF
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Global Summary
Trump gave Iran 10 to 15 days to reach a nuclear deal or face "a very different path." U.S. military forces are building to full deployment by mid-March. That timeline matters now.
Paid members get the full analytical picture: RegionalPULSE deep dives, FLASH reports on breaking developments, CountryREPORTs, and direct analyst access across 75+ countries.
EXPANDED ANALYSIS THIS WEEK
GSAT published two in-depth regional analyses this week covering Eurasia and Sub-Saharan Africa.
Our Eurasia RegionalPULSE examines the third round of Ukraine-Russia peace talks in Geneva, where both sides confirmed progress on military-track issues but remain far apart on political questions. Ukrainian forces reclaimed 201 square kilometers in a single week, the largest territorial gain since June 2023, while Russia's oil revenues fell to their lowest level since the pandemic. The report also covers a historic South Caucasus realignment following the U.S.-brokered Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement, Turkey's cross-party parliamentary approval of a PKK peace roadmap, and Georgia's deepening authoritarian trajectory documented by a new Council of Europe report.
Read the full Eurasia RegionalPULSE →
Our Sub-Saharan Africa RegionalPULSE tracks the convergence of multiple escalating conflict theaters across the continent. Ethiopia's federal troop buildup around Tigray has raised the highest risk of renewed large-scale war in the Horn since the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, with Addis Ababa publicly accusing Eritrea of wartime massacres for the first time. In the DRC, M23 launched drone strikes on Kisangani airport 400 km behind front lines, marking a significant expansion of operational reach while ten million people face severe hunger in rebel-controlled territory. The report also assesses Nigeria's deepening security crisis, the Sahel's fracturing security architecture, and a counternarrative of economic recovery in South Africa, Ghana, and Zambia.
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GSAT (Geopolitical and Security Analysis Team) is Riley Sentinel's collective byline for team contributions or analysts requiring profile management due to sensitive work. All contributors are vetted by Riley Risk senior staff.
