Global Summary

Iran's third round of nuclear talks ended Thursday in Geneva without a deal. Technical teams will reconvene in Vienna next week, but the USS Gerald R. Ford just arrived off Israel's coast as CENTCOM briefed Trump on strike options the same day diplomats were talking. Meanwhile, El Mencho's killing triggered the worst cartel violence Mexico has seen in years, with at least 73 dead and reprisals across 20 states. Five days later, the CJNG still has no clear successor, and Guadalajara is supposed to host World Cup matches in four months.

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EXPANDED ANALYSIS THIS WEEK

SpecialREPORT: Iran — Prelude to War?

The third round of US-Iran nuclear talks concluded February 26 in Geneva with what Oman's foreign minister called "significant progress" but no breakthrough. Iran rejected US demands to destroy Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, transfer all enriched uranium to American custody, and accept an indefinite enrichment ban with no sunset clauses. Tehran insisted enrichment will continue under IAEA oversight and pushed for comprehensive sanctions relief. The two sides agreed to move discussions to the technical level in Vienna next week, but Trump's self-imposed deadline is expiring and the military buildup continues to accelerate.

The Ford carrier strike group arrived off Israel's coast on February 27 after transiting from Crete, joining the Lincoln strike group already in the Arabian Sea. CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper briefed Trump on strike options Thursday while the talks were still underway. The IAEA confirmed it can no longer verify the status of Iran's enriched uranium after losing access to facilities struck in June 2025. Inside Iran, Ramadan has intensified rather than dampened protest activity, with 20 demonstrations across eight provinces on the first day of the holy month. The EU designated the IRGC a terrorist organization on February 19. UK allies will not support US military action. Congressional opposition is building through the Kaine-Paul resolution requiring a formal declaration of war.

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FLASH Report: Mexico — El Mencho Killed; Nationwide Retaliation Underway

Mexican military forces killed CJNG leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes on February 22 during an operation in Tapalpa, Jalisco, supported by US intelligence. The operation triggered coordinated reprisals across 20 of 32 Mexican states. At least 73 people were killed in the aftermath, including 25 National Guard members. Over 250 road blockades, hundreds of vehicle fires, attacks on approximately 20 bank branches, and looting of at least 69 businesses followed. El Mencho's chief lieutenant, "El Tuli," was subsequently killed carrying over $1.3 million in cash after coordinating the retaliation and offering bounties on soldiers. International airlines suspended flights to Guadalajara, Puerto Vallarta, and Manzanillo. Schools closed in eight states. With El Mencho's son serving a life sentence in the US, his brother extradited, and other key family members in custody, the CJNG faces a leadership vacuum with no obvious successor. The cartel's franchise model may allow it to survive through decentralized operations, but a succession war and rival incursions are near-certainties. Guadalajara hosts four FIFA World Cup matches beginning June 2026.

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