Global Summary

The US-Israel campaign against Iran is now in its seventh day, with 500 ballistic missiles and approximately 2,000 drones fired at Gulf states since February 28, six US service members confirmed dead in Kuwait, and the Strait of Hormuz functionally closed to commercial shipping. In Mexico, the killing of CJNG leader El Mencho on February 22 triggered the worst cartel violence in years — 25 National Guard members dead, violence across 20 states — and no clear successor has emerged ten days later, with Guadalajara hosting World Cup matches in four months. Ukraine recorded its first net positive territorial month since the 2023 counteroffensive while peace talks collapsed under the weight of the Iran conflict, and Hungary is blocking both EU sanctions against Russia and a €90 billion loan to Kyiv simultaneously. In Asia-Pacific, 41% of operational US Navy ships are now in the Middle East, and China used the opening of its National People's Congress to announce a 7% defense budget increase.

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