Global Summary

The US-Israeli war on Iran, now in its third week, continues to reshape global security and energy markets as Brent crude climbed above $114 per barrel on 19 March following strikes on Iran's South Pars gas field and Tehran's declaration that the war had entered a "new stage." A seven-nation coalition led by the UK, France, and Japan declared support for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil transits and where commercial shipping has effectively halted since 28 February. In South Asia, Pakistan and Afghanistan entered a temporary Eid al-Fitr ceasefire on 19 March after weeks of cross-border fighting that included a contested airstrike on a Kabul drug rehabilitation hospital on 16 March. Ukraine's battlefield dynamics shifted in Kyiv's favor, with Russian forces losing a net 33 square miles over the past four weeks according to ISW data, though Hungary's veto of a €90 billion EU loan at the Brussels summit threatens Kyiv's finances as Western resources are drawn toward the Middle East. In Nigeria, triple suicide bombings in Maiduguri on 17 March killed at least 23 people during Ramadan, while the Global Terrorism Index identified four of the world's five most terror-affected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.

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