Key Findings

• Al-Shabaab launched the Shabelle offensive in February 2025, targeting the Middle and Lower Shabelle and Hiran regions in a bid to encircle Mogadishu amid Somalia's fragile transition from ATMIS to AUSSOM.
• The U.S. has conducted multiple airstrikes in coordination with Somali forces against Al-Shabab and ISIS, notably in Adan Yabaal and the Puntland region in April and May 2025.
• Ethiopia reentered the Somalia conflict theater, conducting airstrikes in March 2025 to assist Somali troops countering al-Shabaab advances in Shabelle.
• Turkey has deployed additional troops to Somalia in 2025 and continues to operate its largest overseas base in Mogadishu, providing training and security support.
• The 2024 Ethiopia-Somaliland port deal triggered regional diplomatic fallout, as Ethiopia sought Red Sea access in exchange for recognizing Somaliland’s independence, provoking Somali backlash.
• Egypt responded by strengthening military ties with Somalia, including a proposal in August 2024 to deploy Egyptian peacekeepers under the AUSSOM mission.
• In December 2024, Turkey mediated a diplomatic dialogue between Somalia and Ethiopia, leading to a joint declaration to ease tensions caused by the Somaliland deal.
• Foreign military bases have multiplied across the region, including Russia’s Red Sea naval base in Sudan and UAE investments in Somali and Eritrean ports, complicating maritime governance.
• February 2024 saw Somalia and Turkey sign a maritime security agreement, empowering the Somali navy to counter piracy and foreign interference in its territorial waters.
• Red Sea trade has dropped by nearly 50% due to maritime insecurity, driven by Houthi attacks and geopolitical contestation, threatening regional economies and humanitarian access routes.

Summary

Being at the center of worsening local and regional security dynamics, Somalia continues to be driven by the resurgence of Al-Shabab and intensifying geopolitical rivalries in the Horn of Africa. Domestically, the group' Shabelle offensive launched in February 2025 exploits security gaps left by transitioning from the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) to the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission (AUSSOM). Despite targeted airstrikes by the U.S., Turkey, and Ethiopia, Somalia struggles to formulate a unified defense strategy due to political fragmentation and weak state-regional relations.

Regionally, Ethiopia's controversial agreement with Somaliland to access a port in exchange for diplomatic recognition intensified tension and sparked a sovereignty dispute with Somalia. Additionally, this prompted Egypt to deepen military ties with Mogadishu. The Red Sea’s strategic importance, through which 15% of global trade passes, has intensified foreign military competition. International powers such as the U.S., China, Turkey, and the UAE have established bases in the region and have turned the area into a geopolitical flashpoint.

While foreign support seeks to bolster Somalia's maritime security, overlapping agendas risk undermining coordinated responses to piracy and terrorism. These developments reflect a broader trend of militarized competition in the Horn, complicating conflict resolution and regional stability.