Sentinel Summary

Afghanistan remains a sanctuary for terrorist organizations despite Taliban denials. A February 2026 UN Security Council report confirmed that Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) operates as "one of the largest terrorist groups in Afghanistan" with "greater liberty and support" from Taliban authorities. Al-Qaeda continues to enjoy Taliban patronage, functioning as a training and advisory provider. The proliferation of sophisticated weapons from former US coalition stockpiles has enhanced the lethality of cross-border attacks against Pakistan, with TTP responsible for over 2,100 attacks in the second half of 2025.

Pakistan faces its deadliest domestic terrorism surge since 2014. A February 6 suicide bombing at an Islamabad mosque killed 31-32 people and injured 169-170, marking the capital's deadliest attack since the 2008 Marriott Hotel bombing. Security forces concluded Operation Radd al-Fitan 1 in early February, killing 216 militants at the cost of 22 security personnel and 36 civilian casualties. Pakistan conducted airstrikes in Afghanistan and temporarily closed all border crossings, signaling a potential escalation in cross-border military exchanges.