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Executive Summary

Instability deepened across Sub-Saharan Africa, led by the collapse of Ethiopia’s Pretoria agreement into open war. Federal forces retook Mekelle on October 3 and Adwa, near the Eritrean border, on October 11. Eritrean troops were seen inside Tigray, Addis Ababa invoked self-defense against Asmara at the Security Council, and severed diplomatic ties have left no channel to manage escalation. The conflict is also drawing Ethiopian troops out of Somalia ahead of December’s elections. Sudan’s war spread into Blue Nile, where an RSF drone strike killed at least 30 people on October 9, while the Security Council agreed only to a short sanctions extension. An attack on Rumbek killed 71 people as South Sudan heads toward December elections. In the Sahel, Mali’s recapture of Kidal strengthened junta control without restoring security. In the DRC, fighting resumed in Masisi despite AU mediation, and Ebola deaths reached 4,381, with an imported case in Kenya. Convoy ambushes in Nigeria and anti-migrant riots in South Africa, which forced Home Affairs to withdraw its asylum directive, reflect a broader pattern: armed and organized groups are outpacing state responses as elections approach.

Politically, Guinea-Bissau’s election delay raises the risk of democratic backsliding, while expulsions among Ethiopian, Eritrean, and Egyptian diplomats have hardened regional alignments against Addis Ababa. Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso severed ties with Kyiv over alleged support to the FLA, and Chad protested a CAR cross-border incursion on October 10. South Africa’s withdrawal of its asylum directive, followed by the suspension of applications, shows anti-migrant mobilization shaping policy ahead of November’s local elections. Socioeconomic conditions continue to worsen as El Niño conditions cause drought, worsen food security, and drive migration, with more than 20,000 migrant journeys from Ethiopia toward Yemen recorded since September 10. Conflict in Sudan and Ethiopia continues to be a major driver of humanitarian need. Ebola continues to rise in the DRC, but remains contained in Kenya after no new cases were reported.