Sentinel Brief

This study presents a thorough examination of the current geopolitical and security environment throughout Africa, with an emphasis on high-profile developments in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Mounting Political Volatility Across Multiple States: Several countries, including Guinea-Bissau, Cameroon, Uganda, and Tanzania, exhibited heightened political instability driven by post-election tensions, repression of opposition groups, and contested transitions. These patterns indicate a widening governance fragility gap, with short-term risks of intensified public unrest and reduced institutional legitimacy.

Security Deterioration in Key Hotspots Continues to Reshape the Regional Threat Landscape: Renewed violence in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado, persistent insurgency in Somalia, escalating militant activity in Nigeria’s northern belt, and cross-border incidents between Sudan and South Sudan underscore the resilience and geographic spread of armed actors. Operational environments in these areas are expected to remain highly unpredictable, with direct implications for humanitarian access and civilian protection.