Sub-Saharan Africa RegionalPULSE: 28 AUG 2025

Report Summary

This study presents a thorough examination of the current geopolitical and security environment throughout Africa, with an emphasis on high-profile developments in Sub-Saharan Africa.

• In Côte d’Ivoire, exclusion of key opposition leaders from the October 25 presidential election is fueling protests and raising risks of pre-election unrest.
• Tanzania’s ban on foreigners in 15 small-scale business sectors has triggered trade tensions with Kenya and could undermine EAC integration ahead of October’s elections.
• In Mali, elections remain indefinitely postponed as tensions grow between the junta and Russian Wagner/Africa Corps mercenaries, heightening political and security risks.
• Somalia’s landmark electoral reform deal adopting universal suffrage marks governance progress but faces implementation challenges amid persistent opposition divisions.
• In Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado, escalating attacks by ISIS-linked militants have displaced nearly 60,000 people, threatening LNG operations and regional stability.
• Mali’s JNIM insurgents killed 21 soldiers in coordinated attacks, signaling a push toward territorial control and increasing instability in the Sahel.
• In Nigeria’s Katsina State, 50 civilians were killed and 60 abducted in a terrorist attack, while security gains against oil theft improved NNPCL terminal receipts to nearly 100%.
• South Sudan–Uganda border clashes left six soldiers dead, exposing fragile bilateral security arrangements and recurring cross-border instability.
• Interpol’s Operation Serengeti 2.0 dismantled a $300M cryptocurrency scam in Zambia, arresting over 1,200 suspects and highlighting rising cybercrime sophistication.
• In Angola, violent protests over a fuel price hike left 22 dead and over 1,200 arrested, reflecting rising social tensions amid inflation and unemployment.
• South Africa faces dual pressures from U.S. tariffs of up to 30% and a $427M U.S. HIV funding cut, threatening economic stability, employment, and public health resilience.
• Tanzania’s energy reforms, including the Kagera grid connection and 87MW Kakono hydropower project, support regional power integration but face possible implementation delays.
• In the DRC, competition between China’s Zijin Mining and U.S.-based KoBold Metals over Manono’s lithium reserves underscores rising geopolitical rivalry for critical minerals.
• Qatar’s Al Mansour Holding announced $39B in energy and infrastructure investments across Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, intensifying competition with China and the U.S.
• Growing tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea over port access and fragile ceasefires in Tigray risk renewed conflict with potential spillover effects across the Horn of Africa.
• The Alliance of Sahel States (Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso) continues to strengthen security and trade ties while distancing from ECOWAS, reshaping regional dynamics.