Sentinel Brief

Sudan's civil war approaches its 1,000th day with no viable ceasefire in sight. A drone strike on the al-Safiya market in North Kordofan on February 15 killed at least 28 civilians, while the UN documented over 6,000 killings during the RSF's October 2025 offensive on El Fasher. The conflict has displaced over 14 million people and produced what the UN calls the world's worst humanitarian crisis. A U.S.-Saudi ceasefire proposal remains under review by the SAF but expectations are low, as both sides continue to pursue military gains and external arms flows persist through regional proxies including Ethiopia, the UAE, Egypt, and Turkey.

Ethiopia faces a dangerous military escalation as federal troops mass along the Tigray border, with Tigrayan forces deploying in response. According to AFP, a Western diplomatic source confirmed that the ENDF is "encircling Tigray" while Tigrayan forces are also deploying toward their borders. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights warned parties to de-escalate "before it is too late." Federal troop withdrawals from Amhara and Oromia to reinforce Tigray positions have created security vacuums in those regions, where the Fano militia has recaptured strategic territory including the city of Debre Tabor.