Sentinel Brief

Sudan's civil war has entered its most lethal phase since the conflict began in April 2023. Drone warfare now dominates the battlefield, with ACLED recording at least 198 drone strikes in January and February 2026 alone, killing 478 civilians. The RSF launched a two-pronged offensive on March 16 to isolate the strategic city of El-Obeid in Kordofan, while border fighting at Tina, North Darfur killed at least 17 people on March 18. An estimated 250,000 people have died since the war began, 14 million are displaced, and 25 million face hunger. Chad has closed its border with Sudan, and international mediation efforts remain stalled.

South Sudan is on the brink of a renewed full-scale civil war following the government's capture of Akobo on March 12. The army ordered UNMISS and all NGOs to evacuate Akobo ahead of offensive operations on March 6; the UN refused. At least 169 people were killed in an insurgent raid on Abiemnom on March 1-2, and UNICEF reports 100,000 people fled to Ethiopia in March alone. The 2018 peace agreement has effectively collapsed, with Vice President Riek Machar under house arrest and facing charges of crimes against humanity.

Eastern DRC's ceasefire has collapsed as M23 and Congolese forces exchanged fire in Kabunambo on March 17. The United States imposed sanctions on Rwanda's Defence Forces and four senior military officials on March 2-3 for providing operational support to M23. A French UNICEF employee was killed in a drone strike on Goma on March 11. Human rights violations surged 24% in 2025, with M23 responsible for 71% of violations by armed groups. Over 7 million people are displaced across eastern Congo.

West Africa's jihadist insurgency is expanding beyond the Sahel into coastal states. JNIM killed 15 Beninese soldiers at Kofouno on March 4, weeks after the UN Security Council confirmed the group had appointed an emir for Benin. ECOWAS agreed to activate a 2,000-strong standby force, while Nigeria suffered triple suicide bombings in Maiduguri on March 16 that killed at least 23 people, the deadliest such attack in seven years. Cross-border jihadist violence rose 86% between 2024 and 2025.

Ethiopia faces an acute risk of renewed conflict on multiple fronts. The TPLF accuses the federal government of encircling Tigray with troops, and clashes resumed in January 2026 after drone strikes targeted Tigrayan positions. Simultaneously, Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions have reached their highest point since the 1998-2000 war, driven by Addis Ababa's push for Red Sea access through the Assab port. The African Union has warned of an imminent risk of a new war.

The Iran war's closure of the Strait of Hormuz is triggering a fuel crisis across Sub-Saharan Africa. Oil prices have surged above $100 per barrel, with most African nations holding only 15-25 days of fuel reserves against the recommended 90 days. The Association of Regional Energy Regulators for Eastern and Southern Africa projects that African economies could lose up to 3 percentage points of growth if the conflict persists beyond two months. Somalia's fuel prices have risen over 75%, Nigeria's gasoline prices have increased more than 30%, and South Africa faces projected pump price increases of over R2 per litre.

Rwanda has threatened to withdraw its approximately 2,000 troops from Mozambique's Cabo Delgado province unless sustainable financing is secured, creating uncertainty around the counterinsurgency campaign against Islamic State-linked militants that has stabilized major LNG project zones since 2021.