Americas - North America RegionalPULSE: 26 JUN 2025

Report Summary

This study presents a thorough examination of the current geopolitical and security environment throughout the Americas, with an emphasis on high-profile developments in North America.

• Authoritarianism and Civic Space Shrinking: El Salvador continues to escalate its crackdown on civil society through arbitrary arrests of critics and the enforcement of a controversial Foreign Agents Law. The law imposes a 30% tax on foreign donations to NGOs, drawing comparisons to repressive models in Russia and Nicaragua.
• Migration and Border Security Recalibrated: The U.S. created two new National Defense Areas along its southern border, enabling military detention of migrants without invoking the Insurrection Act. Simultaneously, Guatemala and the U.S. signed a joint security pact to bolster border surveillance and coordination, while the Dominican Republic expanded its border wall with Haiti.
• Rule of Law and Institutional Fragility: Nicaragua’s severing of ties with the UN Refugee Agency highlights the Ortega regime’s further international isolation, while Honduras’ ongoing delays in launching the CICIH anti-corruption body underscore persistent resistance to transparency and judicial reform.
• Heightened Regional Risk Environment: Haiti’s internal security continues to deteriorate, marked by drone strikes against gang leaders and a nationwide blackout triggered by violent protests. The use of drones without legal oversight raises concerns about extrajudicial killings and private military involvement.
• Climate and Disaster Risks: Hurricane Erick’s impact across Mexico—causing deaths, mass evacuations, and power outages—underscores the region’s exposure to extreme weather and the need for robust disaster response infrastructure.
• Trade Tensions Resurface: Canada signaled it will raise tariffs on U.S. steel and aluminum if negotiations fail, responding to President Trump’s aggressive trade measures. The dispute threatens critical bilateral trade flows, affecting sectors vital to regional supply chains.