Americas - South America RegionalPULSE: 14 MAY 2025

Report Summary

This study presents a thorough examination of the current geopolitical and security environment throughout the Americas, with an emphasis on high-profile developments in South America.

• Security risks are intensifying in Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru, with targeted attacks against security forces, armed group activity, and violent incidents tied to illegal mining driving operational volatility. Governments have responded with heightened militarization and curfews, raising concerns about humanitarian access and business continuity.
• Bolivia faces a compounded crisis marked by historic flooding, fuel shortages, mounting food insecurity, and growing protests. Agricultural leaders have warned of an unprecedented food crisis, as input costs surge and export bans disincentivize production.
• Venezuela’s strategic posture is hardening, with deepening military cooperation with Russia and renewed U.S. sanctions following the expiration of General License 80. A U.S. Level 4 travel advisory underscores deteriorating safety conditions for foreign nationals.
• Argentina’s extractive sector sees renewed momentum, as the Filo del Sol discovery emerges as one of the world’s largest new copper finds. However, inflation-adjusted wage pressures, border deployments, and growing fiscal tensions complicate the investment outlook.
• Uruguay reaffirms political stability, with the ruling Frente Amplio securing key regional victories, supporting long-term policy continuity and infrastructure planning.
• China deepens its economic footprint through the proposed Brazil–Chancay rail link and a new direct shipping line to Peru. Meanwhile, diplomatic tensions flared in Chile over a Chinese space observatory project suspended amid U.S. national security concerns.
• Colombia’s fiscal credibility is weakening, with the IMF blocking access to an $8.1B credit line due to unresolved structural issues and political instability following the resignation of the finance minister and stalled reform agenda.
• Regional polarization persists: The ICJ issued new provisional measures to deter Venezuelan actions in disputed Guyanese territory, reflecting a risk of regional diplomatic escalation.
• Stability is uneven across the region: While Uruguay, parts of Brazil, and Paraguay show signs of resilience and economic opportunity, countries like Bolivia and Venezuela present elevated risk due to compounding domestic and geopolitical pressures.