Americas - South America RegionalPULSE: 24 JUN 2025

Report Summary

This study presents a thorough examination of the current geopolitical and security environment throughout the Americas, with an emphasis on high-profile developments in South America.

• Peru's political crisis deepens, with President Dina Boluarte facing two congressional motions for removal over alleged misconduct and shielding of a fugitive. With approval ratings below 3% and rising gang violence, Peru’s governance stability remains precarious ahead of the 2026 elections.
• Brazil braces for further climate-related disruption as the Guaíba River in Porto Alegre surpasses warning levels for a third day. Over 6,000 people have been displaced, reviving fears of a repeat of the 2024 flood disaster.
• Bolivia reels from unrest and health threats, having suffered over $1 billion in losses from politically driven blockades and now confronting a national measles emergency, with 60 confirmed cases and low vaccination uptake.
• Argentina faces renewed international litigation, as creditors seek enforcement of €1.5 billion in U.S. courts. Border tensions with Bolivia escalate over unauthorized crossings and Argentina’s new border wall project.
• Suriname strengthens its energy outlook, with Staatsolie and Petronas signing a deepwater production-sharing deal. Half of Suriname’s offshore blocks are now under contract, reinforcing its emerging role in the regional hydrocarbons sector.
• Chile expands digital influence, signing a strategic agreement with Google to complete the Humboldt submarine cable connecting South America to Asia-Pacific, enhancing regional digital resilience and geopolitical leverage.
• Ecuador secures IDB support for renewable energy investment, expected to unlock $1 billion in private capital. Concurrently, major security reforms expand state powers to combat organized crime and narco-violence.
• Venezuela seeks to attract investment by announcing a 30% increase in certified oil reserves and highlighting its gas potential, even as U.S. intelligence reports reveal critical weaknesses in its air defense systems.
• Colombia grapples with persistent insurgent violence, with 19 attacks in a single day attributed to FARC-EMC dissidents. Meanwhile, Congress passes a landmark labor reform, reshaping employment protections.
• Paraguay and Brazil enter high-stakes negotiations over the Itaipú Treaty’s Annex C revision. Paraguay pushes to sell surplus energy freely on the market, challenging Brazil’s access to discounted electricity.
• Transnational organized crime remains a top regional threat, with Chile dismantling a Tren de Aragua-linked laundering network, and Peru and Colombia continuing to experience violent activity tied to criminal groups.