Europe-Eurasia - Europe RegionalPULSE: 08 JUL 2025
Geopolitical & Security Analysis Regional Report

Report Details
Initial Publish Date
Last Updated: 08 JUL 2025
Report Focus Location: Europe
Authors: AGC, MA
Contributors: GSAT
GSAT Lead: MF
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Report Summary
This study presents a thorough examination of the current geopolitical and security environment throughout Europe-Eurasia, with an emphasis on high-profile developments in Europe.
- Political volatility resurfaces in the Balkans, as Republika Srpska’s Milorad Dodik refuses to recognize Sarajevo’s judicial authority, deepening Bosnia and Herzegovina’s internal fragmentation. Simultaneously, Serbia faces its largest anti-government protests in months, prompting snap elections amid mounting public discontent.
- Poland’s presidential election marks a political shift, with the narrow victory of Karol Nawrocki reflecting growing nationalist sentiment. However, the ruling pro-EU coalition retains parliamentary control and pushes forward judicial reforms and stricter migration controls, including reinstated border checks with Germany and Lithuania.
- Geopolitical alignment deepens within NATO, as the UK and Germany prepare to sign a landmark mutual defense treaty, reinforcing European security cooperation amid reduced U.S. engagement. Germany also advances plans to double its reservist force through voluntary military service.
- Moldova strengthens EU ties, securing funding and roaming benefits at a key summit, while warning of intensified Russian influence operations ahead of elections. Nearby, Belarus enables further Russian missile deployments, signaling an expanded threat posture near NATO borders.
- The war in Ukraine escalates, with Russia launching its largest aerial assault to date and Ukraine responding with successful strikes on Russian airbases. President Zelensky and Donald Trump held talks on boosting air defense and co-producing weapons systems.
- Internal security challenges grow across Europe, including terrorist designations (UK’s ban on Palestine Action), cyber-vulnerabilities (Czech blackout), and mounting migration tensions (Austria's deportation of a Syrian national, Germany’s family reunification freeze, and Bosnia’s Frontex deal).
- Energy and trade dynamics evolve, with the BarMar hydrogen pipeline joint venture marking major progress in the EU’s energy transition. Meanwhile, EU-China economic friction continues, with Beijing’s latest retaliation targeting EU medical devices following reciprocal trade restrictions.
- New trade frontiers emerge, as the Mercosur-EFTA deal is finalized after two decades, signaling Europe’s strategic push to diversify partnerships and gain access to South American markets beyond the EU bloc.