Report Summary

This study presents a thorough examination of the current geopolitical and security environment throughout Africa, with an emphasis on high-profile developments in Sub-Saharan Africa.

• Inflation & Economic Strain Persist: Nigeria’s inflation eased for a third straight month but remains above 22%, with food prices still rising, fueling cost-of-living protests. Kenya’s 4.6% GDP growth is undercut by weak tax revenues and debt servicing pressures, while South Africa seeks to manage debt with a R54 billion multilateral loan package.
• Security Risks Worsen in Key Areas: Al-Shabaab claimed a deadly suicide car bombing in Somalia’s Lower Shabelle, while Kenya faces escalating state violence during protests, resulting in over 30 deaths. Nigeria, Mali, and Zimbabwe also saw major incidents of armed violence, militant innovation, and political targeting.
• Fragile Peace and Dialogue Efforts: M23 rebels remain cautious toward the Kinshasa-Kigali accord, as clashes continue in eastern DRC. Talks in Doha between M23 and the Congolese government have stalled, although M23 signals willingness to return to dialogue.
• Geopolitical & Diplomatic Maneuvers: Uganda reopened key border crossings with eastern DRC, citing the need to restore trade. Nigeria is engaging the U.S. and UAE diplomatically to address evolving visa restrictions, while Somalia's internal SSC-Khaatumo governance talks have stalled again, revealing pre-election tensions.
• Humanitarian & Health Concerns: Kenya’s Mpox outbreak has spread to 20 counties, with 240 confirmed cases and five deaths. Vaccination plans are underway. Meanwhile, Zimbabwe advances its lithium strategy with a $270 million plant project, reflecting rising resource-driven economic ambitions.
• Debt and Development Funding: Tanzania secured $448.4 million in IMF disbursements to support reform and climate goals. Mozambique is negotiating a debt-for-green deal with Portugal, aligning fiscal relief with climate finance.
• Regional Cooperation Initiatives: Ghana hosted an AU coordination meeting to advance free movement across Africa. South Africa and Tunisia signed a new strategy to deepen scientific and technological collaboration, reinforcing South-South cooperation.