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Executive Summary

North America and Latin America face compounding geopolitical and security crises, led by the United States expanding its military anti-cartel campaign from maritime strikes to land operations through agreements with Colombia, Ecuador, and Honduras, an expansion now reinforced by the U.S. and 18 partner nations concluding PANAMAX 2026, the first live field exercise defending the Panama Canal since 2012. That expansion carries real costs: Human Rights Watch has documented Ecuadorian forces torturing and arbitrarily detaining farm workers during a partnered operation on the Colombia border, and separately reported that survivors of drone-struck Ecuadorian fishing vessels described contact with U.S. personnel, a role the U.S. Department of Defense denies, leaving accountability for both incidents unresolved. Haiti's gang violence has intensified since March, with at least 613 people killed and 375 injured in the Plaine du Cul-de-Sac area alone according to the UN, raising fresh doubts about whether the country can secure the conditions needed for its first national elections in a decade.

Regional economies are under severe pressure as Colombia manages a $9.58 billion national crisis following a 7.4-magnitude earthquake that has killed at least 289 people, while Canada and the U.S. engage in urgent negotiations to avert a 50 percent tariff on $20 billion of Canadian goods. Diplomatic relations remain highly volatile, underscored by a deadlocked U.S.-Iran conflict threatening the Strait of Hormuz, a disruption now compounding with an El Niño-driven drop in Panama Canal water levels to push transit costs to record highs across two of the world's major shipping chokepoints simultaneously. A fragile U.S.-Mexico security reconciliation is attempting to look past visa disputes and cartel extortion in the avocado industry, while Brazil faces deep international scrutiny as President Lula promotes a major new offshore oil discovery near the environmentally sensitive Amazon River, contradicting the nation's climate leadership goals.

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