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Executive Summary 

This weekly report provides a comprehensive analysis of critical events, emerging threats, and significant developments across our global watchlist countries. Our Geopolitical & Security Analysis Teams continuously monitor and assess incidents affecting regional stability, security, and business operations.

The week of November 2 to 8 combined a deadly attack on a major European public space with continued threats to energy, transport and healthcare systems across every region. In Europe and Eurasia, a gunman killed six people in Krakow’s Main Square on November 7 and is suspected of killing three relatives at his home; he died in hospital on November 9. Poland observed national mourning, opened a terrorism investigation and tightened security ahead of the November 11 Independence Day, the same date as President Nawrocki’s deadline to Prime Minister Tusk over the Constitutional Tribunal. France saw its largest protest day of the movement on November 5 (at least 575,000 participants by official count, 1.6 million according to the CGT union), Serbia’s Student List was confirmed as winner of a parliamentary majority after a rerun vote, and a wave of bomb threats disrupted dozens of European flights.

In the Middle East and North Africa, Israel’s president bypassed Netanyahu and handed Gadi Eisenkot the mandate to form a government on November 8. US forces struck Iranian targets on Qeshm Island on November 2, Central Command launched a task force to disrupt Iran’s land and Caspian supply routes alongside the naval blockade, and President Trump said on November 8 that renewed strikes were “highly unlikely” if talks progress, even as Iran said Qatari-led mediation had stalled. Yemeni government forces advanced in al-Jawf and Marib while Houthi missiles targeted Riyadh’s financial district and Saudi defenses intercepted a missile fired toward Medina; Damascus denied reports that Syrian troops were deploying to Saudi Arabia or Yemen. In Sub-Saharan Africa, Tanzania’s opposition leader was convicted and jailed for incitement, Ethiopia and Sudan escalated a diplomatic rupture over alleged drone attacks, South Africa’s ANC fell to 30.76% in municipal elections that left most councils hung, and the DRC’s Ebola outbreak passed 10,600 confirmed cases and 5,100 deaths, compounded by a November 5 attack in Cantine-Aloya that forced patients to flee treatment.

In the Americas, Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress in the US midterms, prompting a White House staff shake-up. Paraguay’s president was removed by the Senate, charged and placed in pretrial detention following the collapse of Ueno Bank. Haiti’s prime minister defended an expanded and loosely mandated Salvadoran military deployment as police confirmed the death of gang leader Mathias Saintil, and Washington pursued a phased transition roadmap with Venezuela.

Lastly, in Asia-Pacific, New Zealand’s November 7 election produced no clear winner on preliminary results, with official results due on November 27. A magnitude 5.7 earthquake injured more than 20 people in central Japan, the International Court of Justice set November 19 for its Rohingya genocide ruling against Myanmar, and South Korea’s special counsel sought the death penalty for former president Yoon Suk Yeol ahead of a January 26 sentencing.