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Executive Summary

Russian activity linked to the war in Ukraine produced security incidents across NATO's eastern and northern flanks during the reporting period. Russian drones entered Moldovan and Romanian airspace on September 24, two civilian vessel captains were killed in separate attacks near Odesa, and US prosecutors charged five people with plotting against Russian dissidents in the US and Europe on behalf of Russian intelligence. NATO's top commander, Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, called on allies to expand intelligence sharing against hybrid threats. Separately, the US, Denmark and Greenland signed a security agreement on September 22 allowing new US defense areas in Greenland.

Election results across the region show support shifting away from established governing parties. In Germany, the AfD won the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state election with 38.2% of the vote while Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU lost all its seats, and Die Linke won in Berlin. In Serbia, President Aleksandar Vučić resigned to run for prime minister in the October 25 parliamentary elections. In Russia, United Russia won a record 349 of 450 Duma seats after the Supreme Court removed the anti-war Yabloko party from the ballot.

Socioeconomic grievances are also producing street-level unrest. In France, high school blockades over class sizes and teacher shortages coincided with a nationwide union day of action against Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu's cost-cutting budget on September 29. The school protests turned violent in several cities, with more than 400 people detained, most of them minors. The government presents its draft 2027 budget on October 1, which keeps the risk of further protests and clashes high in the near term.

Police in the United Kingdom and France made arrests in separate terrorism investigations. Five men were arrested near RAF Fairford on September 27 on suspicion of explosives and terrorism offences and released on bail the next day. The base hosts US bombers conducting operations against Iran, though investigators have not established a link between the suspects and any foreign state. In France, three men were charged with planning an attack on the Jewish community and with planning to leave the country to join the Islamic State in Africa.

In Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan held talks on border-security cooperation, including information sharing and joint exercises, against trafficking and militant activity along the Afghan frontier. The US and the five Central Asian states also met in the C5+1 format on artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure investment.