Global Summary

The US-Iran conflict remained the central focus across all five key regions this week. Active maritime engagements in the Strait of Hormuz on May 4 and 7 were interrupted only by a momentary diplomatic lull on May 5. The crisis has seen Brent crude prices peak at $103.70 and left roughly 1,500 vessels unable to transit. Concurrently, the UAE officially departed OPEC on May 1 and faced back-to-back Iranian drone and ballistic missile strikes on May 4 and 5, bringing the total number of intercepted ballistic missiles to 549 since late February. In Eurasia, Russia breached Ukraine's open-ended ceasefire within hours of its May 6 implementation. This violation followed a surge in attacks that claimed at least 27 lives across Ukraine just prior to the deadline. Notably, for the first time in nearly two decades, Moscow's May 9 Victory Day parade is set to take place without any military hardware on display.

Diplomatic tensions escalated in East Africa as Sudan recalled its ambassador to Ethiopia on May 5. The move followed allegations that Addis Ababa and the UAE collaborated on a drone strike targeting Khartoum International Airport, causing a dual rupture in Sudan's relations with its neighbors. The Indo-Pacific saw significant shifts in naval architecture this week. Japan finalized a $6.5 billion warship contract with Australia alongside a $10 billion energy security commitment for the region. Simultaneously, Pakistan strengthened its maritime capabilities by commissioning its first AIP submarine built by China.

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