What is Happening in Mexico?

Key Points

• Claudia Sheinbaum won the Mexican Presidential elections, held on 2 June 2024. As the first female President of Mexico, Sheinbaum, a climate scientist, will take office on 1 October 2024.
• Cartel violence remains at a high point. The conflict has produced around 11,000 internally displaced persons, and drug trafficking networks still have significant control of the country through intimidation and bribery.
• The Sinaloa and Jalisco New Generation (CJNG) cartels remain the most powerful criminal networks in Mexico, having expanded their operations globally as transnational criminal organizations.
• As the last stop of the current migratory corridor to the United States, Mexico is in negotiations with Biden’s cabinet to establish direct deportations to home countries for non-Mexican migrants.
• The new President will face several environmental challenges, such as an extreme heat wave, water crisis and deforestation.
• It is expected that Sheinbaum will continue with the constitutional reforms proposed by her predecessor, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO).

Summary

The 2024 elections resulted in the triumph of the center-left candidate of the ruling party, Claudia Sheinbaum. She is a former Mayor of Mexico City (2018-2023), scientist, and a Member of the United Nations panel of climate scientists that received a Nobel Peace Prize in 2007. Aligned with outgoing President López Obrador’s policies and initiatives, Sheinbaum will rule a country characterized by the drug war, limited access to security and justice, and a human rights crisis. Gender-based violence, a widespread problem in Mexico, is another issue that the elected President promised to tackle during her campaign, as she identifies herself as a feminist. 

In order to provide a clear, concise overview of the current situation in Mexico, it is necessary to outline the sociopolitical context of this North American country. The Fragile States Index places Mexico under the “warning” category. Particularly, this index showed a decrease in public services and the security apparatus. On the other hand, the same study indicated that the number of refugees and internally displaced persons has grown, as well as the economic inequality. State legitimacy has demonstrated a steady increase compared to previous years. Multiple factors, discussed below, periodically influence the results mentioned above.

According to media outlets, Claudia Sheinbaum will not only be the first female President of Mexico but also the candidate with the most votes in the history of the country. She obtained 59.5% (around 35 million votes), more than six points above the 53.2% obtained by her predecessor. This data, along with the participation of approximately 60% of the electoral roll, proves the citizens' commitment to Mexican democracy and is, without a doubt, a vote of confidence in the public institutions. Despite this, it is undeniable that the country is going through an intense wave of violence, where sophisticated mafia-style groups constantly fight over territory and resources. The most affected areas include the city of Celaya (Guanajuato state) and the states of Puebla, Estado de México, and Veracruz. Celaya is the scene of a turf war between the Santa Rosa cartel and Jalisco New Generation cartel (CJNG). The inhabitants of the city face shootings, kidnappings, and extortions that put their lives at risk at any time of the day. 

In Puebla, Estado de México, and Veracruz, the conflict of organized crime is compounded by lack of access to water and electricity, labor union strife, and issues among regional political elites. The CJNG and Sinaloa cartels are recognized as “transnational criminal organizations,” highlighted in a recent report from the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA). These cartels have evolved to expand their operations to include money laundering, migrant smuggling, sex trafficking, bribery, and extortion, in addition to drug trafficking.

At this point, it is crucial to mention that President Lopez Obrador’s policy, “Hugs, Not Bullets”, is creating security gaps that are affecting crime prevention across the globe. This security strategy was established shortly after AMLO began his mandate in 2018, and consists of combating crime by prioritizing social programs and job promotion initiatives, rather than the intervention of the Armed Forces. This controversial strategy had a drastic shift in May 2020, after 2,492 murders were recorded in April of the same year. During the pandemic, in apparent contrast to his security strategy, the President ordered the deployment of thousands of soldiers and marines in the country's cities to assist with public security tasks. Despite this, as of September 2022, it was noted that Mexico had lost almost half of its intelligence capacity to investigate and dismantle the country's criminal networks. Local security experts state that, regardless of the official numbers provided by Mexican public bodies, municipalities and cities have increasingly fallen under the control of drug traffickers. In April 2024, government sources stated that the threshold of 180,000 people killed had already been surpassed during the current six-year term.

Presently, the rivalry between the CJNG and Sinaloa cartels is a significant issue for the Mexican internal security situation. However, the alliances that both cartels have consolidated with other international criminal organizations, make the Sinaloa cartel and the CJNG a global threat. The Sinaloa cartel is known for its trafficking operations of cocaine, fentanyl, marijuana, heroin, and methamphetamine, mainly to the United States. As stated in the DEA’s National Drug Threat Assessment 2024, this cartel operates in at least 47 countries globally. It obtains from China precursor chemicals for producing methamphetamine and fentanyl, a dynamic that was also observed in the CJNG’s operations. The Sinaloa cartel uses allied organizations' infrastructure in South America to send shipments of cocaine to Europe, where this drug is presumably more profitable than in the United States. In addition, it was reported that the cartel also supplies cocaine and methamphetamine to Australia, New Zealand, and Thailand. For its part, the CJNG cartel has also developed a complex drug-producing and trafficking structure. Recently, a report from INTERPOL stated that this cartel is currently involved in the commission of financial fraud most probably using artificial intelligence, large language models, and cryptocurrencies. The DEA's cited report mentions that the CJNG is active in over 40 countries, including South America, Asia, Europe, and Africa. The latest findings indicate that the CJNG is the new principal associate of the ‘Ndrangheta, the Calabrian mafia responsible for the massive distribution of cocaine in Europe.

Besides organized crime, Mexico has been dealing with a major migration crisis, as non-Mexican migrants continuously arrive at the U.S.-Mexico border. The migrants’ origin countries were typically the Northern Triangle nations of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. Still, at the moment, Venezuelan, Cuban, Haitian, and even Chinese citizens have been detected trying to cross. The number of people trying to cross the southern border of the U.S. has reached unprecedented levels in the past three years. These circumstances made the fiscal year 2023 a period where record numbers of migrant encounters have been recorded. Migrants apprehended by U.S. authorities or deemed inadmissible by legal methods often stay in Mexico in migrant camps, leading to incidents with locals and Mexican police forces. Environmental issues, such as record-high temperatures, severe drought, deforestation, and water pollution, can’t be ignored as internal pressure factors in Mexico. Local environmental specialists describe the situation in Mexico as “critical”. As of today, animals and people are dying due to extreme heat, a problem that is exacerbated by the electrical grid saturation. In 2023, 196,000 people became internally displaced by natural disasters in Mexico, mainly after Hurricane Otis. In addition, between January and November, 7,493 forest fires were recorded, making 2023 the most critical year for forest fires in the last 25 years.

Future Outlook

Mexico is experiencing a surge of violence that remains far from being contained. As of February, more than 4,000 military officials were deployed across the country in 2024 to inhibit crime rates. Additionally, in April of this year, the Senate authorized the entry of eleven U.S. Army agents with weapons and ammunition into the national territory to train the Mexican Armed Forces. The militarization of Mexico is now becoming a considerable concern for national and international opinion. Given that military intervention is not showing substantial results, it is worth asking what the strategy of the next government will be.

According to local sources, at least 80 civil activities were transferred to the Armed Forces in the first two years of the current government. The budget for this institution grew by 150% during the last six years, and for 2024, 51% of the yearly budget is allocated to infrastructure projects. Latterly, López Obrador presented a package of 20 reforms, including placing the National Guard under the full control of the Mexican Army. The National Guard (Guardia Nacional in Spanish), is a civilian security body created during López Obrador’s government, in charge of performing the public security function assigned to the State and, if necessary, temporarily assisting in public security tasks in the federal entities or municipalities. This entity was key in the government’s plan to combat crime, which is the reason why NGOs publicly expressed their apprehension about the possibility of the civilian sector being without a police force to prevent and investigate crimes. One possible interpretation is that this reform blurs the line between civilian and military jurisdiction, as it militarizes security at the federal level entirely and permanently. On the other side, in a recent interview, the President defended the role of the Armed Forces as “pillars of the Mexican state” and denied any plans of removing this institution from the internal security operations.

By the end of 2018, Human Rights Watch warned about the militarization of public security in Mexico by saying that deploying military officials to contain criminal violence was like throwing fuel on a fire. International think tanks believe that this process may involve a change in the armed forces' commitments and alliances, transitioning away from a constitutional and institutional basis towards personal and partisan loyalty. Moreover, whether effective civilian control over the Armed Forces exists is also questioned. Elected President Sheinbaum proposed during her campaign to address the root causes of organized crime through social programs, enhance the capabilities of the National Guard, and strength coordination to target the finances of criminal groups. Although it is expected that Sheinbaum will follow a similar approach to the one she implemented in Mexico City as Mayor, a comprehensive security strategy that does not necessarily encompass the military, it is not clear if she will continue the legacy of her predecessor.

Besides the issue of organized crime, the new President will inherit a complex situation regarding irregular migration and the border with the United States. In early June of this year, President Joe Biden signed an executive order to temporarily suspend asylum requests when the average daily encounters exceed 2,500 between official ports of entry at the U.S. border with Mexico. In parallel, it was known that Mexico is reportedly near to reach an agreement with U.S. authorities to deport non-Mexican migrants to their home countries, thereby preventing them from staying in Mexico. If the referred agreement does not materialize, and the migrant flow continues, Mexico will have thousands of migrants under its care, with all that that implies. 

Safety and Security Recommendations

Multinational entities are encouraged to follow the below measures and enhance their overall situational awareness, by doing so they can further mitigate risks and operate more safely in Mexico's complex security landscape.

• Monitor the social climate of the country to assess society’s response to the constitutional reforms proposed by López Obrador, which are intended to be approved before the next President takes office.
• Conduct thorough research on the specific security situation in operational regions, paying close attention to areas with high cartel activity, as risk levels vary significantly across Mexico.
• Develop or update comprehensive security plans that includes protocols for travel, accommodation, communication, and emergency response. Ensure all staff members are briefed and have access to necessary resources.
• Regularly review and update security protocols and emergency response plans, conducting training and drills to ensure preparedness.
• Build a reliable network of local contacts, including trusted NGOs, community leaders, and government officials, to obtain valuable information and assistance.
• Engage with the international community to share information and best practices related to security management in challenging environments.
• Be aware of the risks associated with the militarization of public security, which may complicate interactions with security forces.
• Exercise caution when traveling by road, prioritizing air travel when possible and avoiding driving at night.
• Stay informed about developments in the migration crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border, and be prepared for potential travel disruptions and increased security presence.
• Carefully consider the decision to work in high-risk areas based on the organization's mission, duty of care resources and risk tolerance.