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Executive Summary 

This weekly report provides a comprehensive analysis of critical events, emerging threats, and significant developments across our global watchlist countries. Our Geopolitical & Security Analysis Teams continuously monitor and assess incidents affecting regional stability, security, and business operations.

The week of August 10 to 16 was defined by mounting pressure on the critical corridors connecting active conflicts to the global economy. Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained severely constrained as the US and Iran hardened competing claims over the waterway, while a Houthi attack on the Tihamah in Bab el-Mandeb on August 11 produced the first confirmed maritime fatalities since the latest Iran conflict began; by August 15, repeated Houthi strikes had forced Yemen's Mocha port to suspend all operations. In Europe, Russia and Ukraine intensified attacks on Black Sea ports and shipping, with Moscow rejecting a Kyiv-proposed halt to attacks on civilian targets.

Sudan's al-Obeid faced renewed RSF drone and ground attacks on August 12, reinforcing concerns that Kordofan could become the conflict's next major battleground. The Democratic Republic of the Congo's Ebola outbreak became the deadliest in the country's history by August 16, reaching 4,945 confirmed cases and 2,325 deaths, a 47 percent case-fatality rate. In the Americas, Colombia shifted from rescue toward recovery after the August 10 magnitude-7.4 earthquake killed at least 294 people, left at least 423 missing and injured nearly 4,000. In Asia-Pacific, a magnitude-7.7 earthquake off Indonesia's Flores Island killed at least 53 people and displaced around 5,000.

Elsewhere, Iraq confirmed September 30 as the final date for the withdrawal of US-led coalition forces, and Turkey's parliament passed a legal framework for PKK disarmament, a rare de-escalatory step. President Trump ordered a reduction in US-South Korea military exercises on August 16, though the drills are still expected to proceed in scaled-back form. Gaza's political process remained stalled over the sequencing of Hamas disarmament and Israeli withdrawal. Wildfires forced evacuations across six European countries, Hurricane Lala left one dead and hundreds of thousands without power in Hawaii, and China continued to contend with the aftermath of Typhoon Dolphin. Taken together, the week illustrates a widening vulnerability of maritime corridors, supply routes, and public-health and civilian infrastructure to simultaneous shocks, with limited redundancy increasing the risk that localized disruption cascades into broader operational impact.